Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 10 — lost $500

June 1, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Martin Garcia teamed up with trainer Ral Ayers to win on #1 Worth the Fight

Jockey Martin Garcia teamed up with trainer Ral Ayers to win on #1 Worth the Fight

Jeff Mullins is suspended right now, so his assistant Ral Ayers is named as the trainer on all of his horses. Ayers saddled #1 Worth the Fight, who had four good workouts in her past performances.

But I could not bet her because, overall, first-time starters are a money-losing bet at this class. However, Mullins is one of those trainers — like Baffert and Mitchell — who defy the handicapping rules and win whenever they want.

I liked #6 Meat Sauce, who was coming off a long layoff, but the betting on him was luke warm. One of the risks you take when wagering on horses who have been healing up on the farm, is that whatever injury they had may prevent them from ever getting into the winner’s circle.

And in this race, Meat Sauce broke slow and pulled up on the backstretch at 5-to-1.

When Meat Sauce stopped running, I still had two other horses with a chance: second-timer #3 Atta Lora rallied nicely on the turn, but then flattened out in the lane at 6-to-1, and #14 Sure Nice showed speed until midway in the stretch then tired at 13-to-1.

Worth the Fight won by more than a length, but he steadied sharply on the backstretch, so with a better trip he could have crushed this field.
© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.
 
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Worth the Fight (MD) Garcia M Ayers R 6.70 1
2 2 Galaxy Way (CA) Arambula P Shulman S 65.50 8
3 3 Atta Lora (CA) Solis A Harrington P 6.40 4
4 4 She’s a Single (CA) Sorenson D Bernstein D 27.50 11
5 5 Anundeniablyhappy (KY) Gryder A Knapp S 36.50 10
6 6 Meat Sauce (CA) Rosario J West T 5.00 14
7 7 Tripped Fuse (FL) Baze M Glatt M 21.50 13
8 8 Jacky’s Skipping (CA) Quinonez A Cenicola L 56.00 7
9 9 Stop On the Way (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Cassidy J 39.40 12
10 10 Crafty Starlit (NY) Stra K Zucker H 17.60 6
11 11 Leslie’s Afleet (FL) Smith M Cerin V 23.20 9
12 12 Parker’s Stormgirl (CA) Talamo J Puype M 1.70 3
13 13 Call Me Dutchess (CA) Nakatani C Vienna D 15.10 2
14 14 Sure Nice (CA) Delgadillo A Dunham D 13.20 5
SCR – Celena (CA) Quinonez A Pender M – –
SCR – Miss Reyna (KY) Garcia M Gonzalez S – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $15.40 $10.00 $6.60
13 – $13.80 $7.80
12 – – $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $168.40 (1-13)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $4216.60 (3-7-1)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $13776.
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — 5:30 pm post time

May 30, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo & up, F

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#3 Atta Lora                           6/1
#6 Meat Sauce                       5/1
#12 Parker’s Stormgirl          7/2
#14 Sure Nice                        6/1
#15 Miss Reyna                      20/1

I see a few good wagering possibilities in this 16-horse field, but none is more potentially powerful than #6 Meat Sauce.

This filly is coming off an eight-month layoff, but has a couple of quick workouts for trainer Ted West. She showed some early foot in September at Fairplex and races at this 6-furlong distance are usually won by horses on or near the lead.

Another speedster coming off a long layoff is #14 Sure Nice. She was loose on the lead versus eight rivals last September and lost by 3/4 of a length. But her trainer, Daniel Dunham, hasn’t won a race all year and her jockey Agapito Delgadillo is not a marquee name either. The truth is, that if her connections were anymore low-profile they’d be in the witness protection program.

Longshot #15 Miss Reyna also hasn’t run since September and is probably a better bet to finish last than first.  But when her owner Tricar Stables wins, their horses usually pay boxcar prices.

I’m giving a shot to two second-time starters. Both #3 Atta Lora and #12 Parker’s Stormgirl could win if they run a couple of lengths faster than they did in their debuts. Mike Puype, who is the trainer of Parker’s Stormgirl, has won with 10 of his last 40 second-time starters and anybody who bet them all would have pocketed a 40 percent gain. Statistics show that Puype is also a profitable bet in maiden claiming races and when using jockey Joe Talamo.

In the end, I will put $400 to win on #6 Meat Sauce but only at odds of 2/1 to 7/2. Also, I’ll take $150 to win on #12 Parker’s Stormgirl at 5/2 to 7/1, but if she doesn’t fall into the range then I’ll replace her with $150 to win on #3 Atta Lora at 5/2 to 7/1. Also, I want $100 on #14 Sure Nice at 5/1 and up and $50 on #15 Miss Reyna at any price.

If #6 Meat Sauce goes off at 4/1 or more than I’ll reduce my bet on her to $250 while keeping everything else intact.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , , , . 1 Comment »
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