Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo & up, F
Possible overlays Morning line
#3 Atta Lora 6/1
#6 Meat Sauce 5/1
#12 Parker’s Stormgirl 7/2
#14 Sure Nice 6/1
#15 Miss Reyna 20/1
I see a few good wagering possibilities in this 16-horse field, but none is more potentially powerful than #6 Meat Sauce.
This filly is coming off an eight-month layoff, but has a couple of quick workouts for trainer Ted West. She showed some early foot in September at Fairplex and races at this 6-furlong distance are usually won by horses on or near the lead.
Another speedster coming off a long layoff is #14 Sure Nice. She was loose on the lead versus eight rivals last September and lost by 3/4 of a length. But her trainer, Daniel Dunham, hasn’t won a race all year and her jockey Agapito Delgadillo is not a marquee name either. The truth is, that if her connections were anymore low-profile they’d be in the witness protection program.
Longshot #15 Miss Reyna also hasn’t run since September and is probably a better bet to finish last than first. But when her owner Tricar Stables wins, their horses usually pay boxcar prices.
I’m giving a shot to two second-time starters. Both #3 Atta Lora and #12 Parker’s Stormgirl could win if they run a couple of lengths faster than they did in their debuts. Mike Puype, who is the trainer of Parker’s Stormgirl, has won with 10 of his last 40 second-time starters and anybody who bet them all would have pocketed a 40 percent gain. Statistics show that Puype is also a profitable bet in maiden claiming races and when using jockey Joe Talamo.
In the end, I will put $400 to win on #6 Meat Sauce but only at odds of 2/1 to 7/2. Also, I’ll take $150 to win on #12 Parker’s Stormgirl at 5/2 to 7/1, but if she doesn’t fall into the range then I’ll replace her with $150 to win on #3 Atta Lora at 5/2 to 7/1. Also, I want $100 on #14 Sure Nice at 5/1 and up and $50 on #15 Miss Reyna at any price.
If #6 Meat Sauce goes off at 4/1 or more than I’ll reduce my bet on her to $250 while keeping everything else intact.
© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.
June 1, 2009 at 10:20 PM
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