Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 10 — lost $300

bio_PatrickBiancone[1]

Trainer Patrick Biancone is winning with more than 20 percent of his HollyPark runners

The only thing I hate more than watching 7-to-5 shots win races, is when they’re followed home by 2-to-1 second choices.

Who likes that? Even horseplayers clutching $4.80 win tickets and $7.30 exactas squack and humbly make jokes at the payout windows about how little they won.

But these short-priced winners need to come in from time to time to feed the confidence of the people who wager on them. That way, the rest of us can get better prices when chalk players use their winnings to pound the next losing favorite.

That brings me to this race where the Patrick Biancone-trained #11 Zip Quick, 7/5, stalked the pace, went three-wide on the turn and accelerated away from the field in the stretch. Inside of him, was the 2-to-1 first time starter #6 Alfarabi who rushed up on the rail to the lead, but couldn’t hold off Zip Quick.

All of the first-time starters that I was considering went off at higher odds than my 20-to-1 maximum. However, second-time starters #5 Seattle Ruler and #8 Ranger Heartley fell into my odds range, so I was able to wager $150 on each.

I was hoping that these colts learned something in their first starts and were ready to uncork something huge in this race. But nothing unexpected happened, which is why the exacta money covered little more than a hot dog and a Coke at the snack bar.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
4 1 Zero Manners (KY) Pedroza M Tekos, Jr. A 28.60 10
5 2 Seattle Ruler (KY) Garcia M Harrington M 8.50 3
6 3 Alfarabi (KY) Rosario J Harty E 2.30 2
8 4 Ranger Heartley (KY) Sorenson D Hebert J 7.40 8
1 5 Amore Di Aleyna (FL) Arambula P La Croix D 7.60 7
9 6 Saarface (KY) Flores D O’Neill D 18.10 6
10 7 Deputy Max (KY) Blanc B Koriner B 24.50 5
11 8 Zip Quik (NY) Talamo J Biancone P 1.40 1
1A 9 Summers At Delmar (KY) Solis A La Croix D 7.60 4
12 10 Google Me (CA) Scott J Zamora R 99.40 9
SCR Luv Dragon (KY)    
SCR Sterling Outlook (KY)    
SCR Paddy’s Prayer (FL) Bejarano R O’Callaghan C
 
Pgm Win Place Show
11 $4.80 $3.00 $2.40
6 $3.20 $3.00
5 $4.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $7.30 (11-6)
$1

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — post time 5:30 pm

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden special weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 year-olds

Possible overlays             Morning line

#3 Paddy’s Prayer                 5/1
#4 Zero Manners                   20/1
#5 Seattle Ruler                    12/1
#8 Ranger Heartley                6/1
#1 Amore Di Aleyna                6/1
#10 Deputy Max                    20/1
#1A Summers at Delmar        6/1

My strategy is to play against #6 Alfarabi, #11 Zip Quick and most likely #3 Paddy’s Prayer. According to the morning line maker, these three colts all figure to be bet from 9/5 to 5/1 and my figures show that these types of horses are terrible wagers at low odds in this type of race.

Instead, I will spread and try to catch a price. None of the second-time starters except #11 Zip Quick ran too strong of a Beyer Speed Figure in their debuts. Mike Harrington trains #5 Seattle Ruler and that one has the quickest first quarter mile, however several of the others either hopped at the start or were off slowly in their first races.

Many times, horses who had trouble at the start in their debuts will comeback and run much better with a good break. First-time starters #3 Paddy’s Prayer, #4 Zero Manners and #10 Deputy Max look like decent wagers, but only if their odds are right.

I will bet $150 to win on both #5 Seattle Ruler and #8 Ranger Heartley at 4/1 or more, and any of these first-time starters but only at odds of 10/1 to 19/1: #3 Paddy’s Prayer, #4 Zero Manners, #10 Deputy Max and #12 Google Me.

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