Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 6 — lost $100

Tyler Baze rode first-time starter Lt. Hopeful to a 7 furlong win (Flickr photo by Raymond)

Tyler Baze rode first-time starter Lt. Hopeful to a 7 furlong win (Flickr photo by Raymond)

The key to this race may have been that none of the horses who ran before had come within five points of the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class of 83.

In races that come up weak, I’ve heard it argued,  the first-time starters deserve a longer look. And #1 Lt. Hopeful, who went wire-to-wire, was being bet early in his debut then drifted up to 6-to-1.

Knowing all of this — I did not like Lt. Hopeful anyway because he did not fit my model of a winning first time starter. Instead, I was focusing on #4 Pauper’s Prize, whose odds were too low; #8 Caspian, who was scratched; #11 Indy Ride, whose odds were too high; and #10 Ricoriatoa, who I bet $100 on at 9-to-2.

Ricoriatoa was coming off a five-month layoff and ran poorly, showing no early speed and no late kick.

To watch a replay of this race, go to

1 1 Lt. Hopeful (KY) Baze T Armstrong J 6.60 1
2 2 Coal Region Kid (KY) Nakatani C Hess, Jr. R 29.40 3
3 3 Margarita Shot (KY) Delgadillo A DeLeon R 8.20 4
4 4 Pauper’s Prize (FL) Bejarano R Cerin V 1.00 8
5 5 Steel Blue (KY) Husbands P Frankel R 23.30 9
6 6 Megaholtz (KY) Espinoza V Ellis R 23.80 2
7 7 Black Feather (KY) Rosario J Drysdale N 6.10 5
10 8 Ricoriatoa (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Lobo P 4.60 7
11 9 Indy Ride (KY) Talamo J Spawr W 26.00 6
SCR Caspian (KY) Solis A Hendricks D
SCR Simple Kind of Man (KY)    
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $15.20 $9.80 $7.40
6 $20.40 $11.20
2 $12.20
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $14.00 (3-6-8)
$1.00 Exacta

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 6 — 3:05 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 7 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                       Morning line

#4 Pauper’s Pride                              5/2
#8 Caspian                                      5/1
#10 Ricoriatoa                                 12/1
#11 Indy Ride                                  12/1

Although their best Beyer Speed Figures are a shade under the 83 median for the level, #4 Pauper’s Pride and #8 Caspian have the type of running style that wins at 7 furlongs.

Trained by Vladimir Cerin, Pauper’s Pride chased Gotmymojoworkin to the wire on Jan 3 while blowing by a weakening Wall Street Wonder in the stretch. Wall Street Wonder returned next time out to win a maiden special weight race easily and has been competiting in stakes since.

Caspian is running in his second start. During his Feb 28 debut, Caspian lagged at the back of the six-horse field then rallied. Unless one of the three first timers show speed, #10 Ricoriatoa should get the lead. He chased quick fractions while wide on Oct. 17 at Keeneland and has been working out well.

Finally, #11 Indy Ride, a first-time starter for trainer Bill Spawr, may be a good bet at the right price.

I will bet $300 on the longer of the two prices between #4 Pauper’s Pride and #8 Caspian and $200 on the shorter price. If either of them are less than 3/1 then I won’t bet that one.  Also, I will take $150 on #11 Indy Ride at 10/1 to 19/1 only, but if Indy Ride doesn’t fall into the odds zone then I want $100 on #10 Ricoriatoa at 14/1 or less.

%d bloggers like this: