The key to this race may have been that none of the horses who ran before had come within five points of the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class of 83.
In races that come up weak, I’ve heard it argued, the first-time starters deserve a longer look. And #1 Lt. Hopeful, who went wire-to-wire, was being bet early in his debut then drifted up to 6-to-1.
Knowing all of this — I did not like Lt. Hopeful anyway because he did not fit my model of a winning first time starter. Instead, I was focusing on #4 Pauper’s Prize, whose odds were too low; #8 Caspian, who was scratched; #11 Indy Ride, whose odds were too high; and #10 Ricoriatoa, who I bet $100 on at 9-to-2.
Ricoriatoa was coming off a five-month layoff and ran poorly, showing no early speed and no late kick.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
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