Saturday, SA Races 9 & 10 Kilroe Mile and The Big Cap

March 7, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

About three months ago, trainer Bobby Frankel was quoted in the newspaper saying that Ventura would win the Santa Monica Handicap then go on and beat the boys later in the year.

Well, Ventura got the job done in the Santa Monica on Jan. 31 and today’s the day she’s battling the boys in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap. Post time is 4:07 p.m.

I’ve watched this horse train on You Tube and she looks energetic, muscular and jockey Gomez is confident she’ll win. Furthermore, she performed well against males when finishing second in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile on Sept. 7, and beat colts in Great Britain’s Hyde Stakes in November 2007. 

Today’s 10th race is the Santa Anita Handicap.  I think #5 Colonel John has the best combination of early speed and closing kick. He’s being ridden by  Garrett Gomez, the nation’s best jockey, and his Beyer Speed Figures have been on an upward trajectory since he began racing in the Fall of 2007. With natural growth and maturity, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this horse explode with a 110 Beyer today.

In the ninth race, if #1 Ventura is 2/1 or more I will bet $300 to win on her. While in the 1oth, I want $200 to win on #5 Colonel John at 3/1 or better.

Note: Colonel John was announced as a late scratch this morning.

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Saturday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 1:34 pm post time

March 7, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#3 Temerity                                   4/1
#5 Brian the Brave                           15/1

Garrett Gomez takes over for jockey David Flores on #8 Unionize, the 8-to-5 morning line favorite. Trainer Clifford Sise had this horse ready to win in his Dec. 28 debut, as Unionize  earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure but he couldn’t catch Point Encounter.

If, for some reason, Unionize isn’t at his best then #3 Temerity has a good chance to upset him. Ron Ellis brought this colt back from a six-month layoff on Feb. 7  to run a 79 Beyer Speed Figure in a 5-1/2 furlong race. Those races are dominated by early speed so this horse was at a disadvantage, but now fits well at 6-1/2 furlongs.

Finally, #5 Brian the Brave, a first-time starter, has a couple of swift workouts and may be a play at a price. Since I had never heard of Brian the Brave’s trainer, Carl O’Callaghan, I plugged his name into Google. I didn’t find much out about his training abilities, but discovered this native of County Clare is also a musician that spends his evenings belting out the Irish favorites at Arcadia-area bars.

I am guessing that “Irish Carl” works for Patrick Gallagher because Gallagher is the regular trainer for Super Horse, Inc., which owns Brian the Brave.

At the betting window, I will take $200 to win on #3 Temerity at 2/1 to 7/2 but just $150 to win at 4/1 and up. Also, I want a $150 win bet on #5 Brian the Brave at 5/1 to 19/1 only.

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Saturday, Santa Anita Race 1 — noon post time

March 7, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#2 Captain Charisma                      12/1
#3 Leavin in a Limo                         5/1
#5 I am Madison’s                           5/1
#9 Smokin’ Stogies                          6/1
 #12 Military Power                         10/1
#13 Judge Kent                              7/2

This 13-horse competitive opener looks like it could be won by any of several runners. So I’ll need decent odds for any and all wagers.

First, #5 I am Madison’s is talented and has good early speed, which is always dangerous. He could win, but many of the others have more seasoning. 

Like I am Madison’s, #3 Leavin in a Limo has only had three races, which is a knock in these claiming sprints for older horses. My median Beyer Speed Figure and the DRF’s Beyer par are a matching 74, so Leavin in a Limo fits, as he followed a 76 Beyer in his Dec. 28 debut with a 73 on Feb. 8. 

Trained by David Hofmans, #9 Smokin Stogies has been working out well and is dropping from maiden special weight after a 10-month layoff. Also, #12 Military Power, trained by Mike Machowsky, is running his second race after eight months away from the races.  Machowsky has an excellent record with recently laid off maidens.

Two others that must be considered at the right price are #2 Captain Charisma and #13 Judge Kent. 

I will bet $200 to win on the highest three odds horses that are between 5/1 and 10/1 of #2 Captain Charisma, #3 Leavin in a Limo, #5 I am Madison’s, #9 Smokin’ Stogies, #12 Military Power and #13 Judge Kent.

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