Of the three lightly-raced horses coming from recent long layoffs — #4 Queen Mariles, #7 Crooked Smile and #11 Ampys Lil Girl — I liked Queen Mariles the best because she had the quickest early speed.
But I wasn’t going to bet if the odds were too low or if she was too cold on the board. So I waited, waited and waited as her odds held slightly above my 2/1 to 7/2 range for much of the betting period. Then finally, with a minute or two to post, late money poured in and it was likely that the odds on Queen Mariles would stick below 4-to-1.
Meanwhile, #7 Crooked Smile was hammered from 9-to-2 on the morning line to 7-to-5 early. She drifted up to 2-to-1 then 5-to-2 and finally went off at 3-to-1. So, two of my horses were in the odds zone, but speed was the deciding factor to sway me to Queen Mariles at 7-to-2.
When the bell finally rang, Crooked Smile popped from the gate, but Queen Mariles willingly established herself as the clear leader on the backstretch. Jockey Mike Smith took a comfortable lead into the lane and nobody got within a length of this filly the rest of the way.
I bet $350 to win on Queen Mariles and got back $1,610.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
While watching the tote board during the betting of this race, I was curious about why the odds on #5 Irridescent Red were so high. I commented to someone that #6 Humane was 6-to-1 and she had run a 59 Beyer Speed Figure in her only race, while Irridescent Red was nearly 20-to-1 and she probably had better early speed and ran a 67 Beyer in her debut.
If Irridescent Red looked that bad then somebody should have told the horse, because this 19-to-1 shot had winning on her mind. Jockey Aaron Gryder made a clear easy lead with her on the backstretch, then turning for home, race caller Trevor Denman said encouragingly “Irridescent Red goes on, leads it by three.”
But then first-time starter Excessive Blend, at 9-to-2, started gobbling up ground with huge strides and by midstretch it was clear that nobody was going to beat her. Irridescent Red, however, held onto second.
Carla Gaines, who trains Excessive Blend, worked this filly out slowly, but the horse did go a quick 4 furlongs in 48 seconds on March 3. In my opinion — after looking at the breeding, the connections and the workouts in the DRF — Excessive Blend’s odds were much too low for a wager.
I bet $150 on Irridescent Red at 19/1, $250 on #7 Asanti who finished third and $150 on #11 Past Curfew at 8/1.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|