Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3yo’s and up
Possible overlays Morning line
#1 Scibelli 3/1
#7 Ask George 4/1
#11 Downtown Banker 5/1
The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this race is a 71 and #1 Scibelli has exceeded that in seven of his last 10 races.
So what is he doing in here?
This horse has earned $79,300 so far and it seems that the owners want to sell him because he was entered for $22,500 rather than $25,000. If he wins and gets claimed, the owners would get $22,500 plus the $9,000 winner’s share of the purse, which would get them their $100,000 purchase price back, plus $10,000.
Scibelli’s morning line is 3-to-1, but with all of those high Beyer figures showing I believe the public will bet him down to at least 2-to-1. If he’s healthy, this horse will win easily, however he’s also lost nine straight races when he was bet to less than 4-to-1.
A better gamble might be #11 Downtown Banker, who dueled wide on the turn March 15 to just miss at the wire in a three-way photo finish. He only earned a 60 Beyer figure for that race, but he had a wide trip that day while today he’s running a half a furlong shorter. Also, he’s been gelded since he last started on April 9, so he just may be able to run the necessary 71 Beyer needed to win.
Another with a shot is #7 Ask George, who is running back for the second time off a long layoff. He has three good workouts and showed a hint of speed on April 9.
I will bet $200 on both #1 Scibelli and #11 Downtown Banker at 3/1 or greater. If either of those two goes off at less than 3/1, then I will instead substitute a $100 win bet on #7 Ask George at 7/2 or more.
June 8, 2009 at 11:56 PM
[…] I was prepared to bet Scibelli, but his odds were too low. So I instead went for new gelding #11 Downtown Banker at 6/1 and #7 Ask George at 7/2 — losing a total of $300 in the process. […]