Maiden claiming $25,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo & up, F
Possible overlays Morning line
#3 Sister Lucy 12/1
#11 Mar Fina 7/2
#12 Veranda Cafe 3/1
Without a doubt, the filly with the best early speed is #3 Sister Lucy. In fact, her last two races were 870 yard quarter horse dashes at Los Alamitos. And she has already run well enough to win at this level. On Oct. 19, Sister Lucy ran a 70 Beyer Speed Figure in a maiden special weight event, which is significant because the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is a 67.
Two fillies coming off recent layoffs — #11 Mar Fina and #12 Veranda Cafe — also have some things to like. Coincidentally, both horses lost to monsters in their previous races, which were both in June 2008. Mar Fina ran into Rachel Alexandra when she broke her maiden and Veranda Cafe was defeated by Evita Argentina.
Trainer Mike Puype, who saddles Mar Fina, has recently excelled at bringing back second and third time starters from long vacations.
And horses who look like Veranda Cafe are excellent wagers when they are bet down a bit.
I will bet $250 to win on #11 Mar Fina at odds of 2/1 to 5/1. But if Mar Fina doesn’t fall into that range, or if #12 Veranda Cafe is a higher price than Mar Fina, then I will bet the $250 on Veranda Cafe instead as long as she is 2/1 to 7/2.
Also, I want $150 to win on #3 Sister Lucy at 9/2 or more.