Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up
Possible overlays Morning line
#6 Jamieson 7/2
#7 Escaping the Storm 4/1
#11 Launch the Bull 3/1
On July 24, trainer Peter Miller brought #11 Launch the Bull back from a 10-month layoff and this gelding has had nothing but bad luck ever since. In all three of his races since, Launch the Bull had the lead and appeared to be headed to victory, but was nailed nearing the wire — one time by a horse that came again on the rail.
In his last five starts, Launch the Bull earned Beyer Speed Figures in the 73 to 89 range. So, considering that the median winning number for these $25,000 claiming horses is a 74, Launch the Bull figures to be tough to beat unless, of course, he’s simply a notorious hanger.
Another horse that could also run huge is #6 Jamieson. This 4-year-old stayed away from the track for more than a year, but almost won his June 6 comebacker. He showed good speed that day before tiring, however on Sept. 2 Jamieson dashed a first quarter mile that was some five lengths quicker than his June 6 race.
It was a colossal improvement, but Jamieson staggered to the wire that day, too, and lost by a nose while earning a 63 Beyer. Sooner or later he’ll put it all together and today just might be the day.
Finally, Escaping the Storm is eligible to improve as he’s also had a few races back after a 9-month rest.
I will put $300 to win on #11 Launch the Bull at 2/1 to 7/2, but just $150 at odds of 4/1 or higher. If Launch the Bull drifts above 7/2, then I will play $200 to win on #6 Jamieson at 2/1 to 7/2.
Also, regardless of Launch the Bull’s odds, I’ll put $150 to win on Jamieson at 4/1 or higher.
October 4, 2009 at 11:58 PM
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