Taking time off to catch up on records

Be-back-soon1[1]Before I started this blog in June 2008, I spent about six months compiling statistics on all aspects of Southern California maiden sprint races. From June 2008 to April 2009, I posted picks here in nine of 11 months, earning  a profit in eight months. As of April 30, 2009, my total winnings were $21,685.

But, because I also work 40-50 hours a week at a Las Vegas race & sports book, it is difficult to find the time to both do the blog and keep up with the research necessary to keep my finger on the pulse of Southern California racing. The angles that worked 10 months ago may or may not be working today. And if they are working, the odds ranges I need might have drastically changed.

So, as 2009 has gone by, the info I compile has become more and more outdated. For example, the statistics I need to evaluate trainer angles are  missing the last four months. And that’s not too bad when compared to the year’s worth of data I need to enter for my pace model, which is crucial for 6-1/2 and 7-furlong races.

And because I’m using old information, my winning has turned to losing. In fact, from May 2009 until today, I posted losses in five of six months and am down a total of $7,225 for that period.

Really, right now there is no way I can catch up with the record keeping while continuing to do the blog and bet the horses. Also, I am now taking a mandatory three-hour class for work which includes three hours of homework a week. The class may not sound like much, but with running weekly errands, tracking stocks and bonds, sleeping and going to the gym, I had nowhere to fit it in.

In the future, it looks like I’ll need to select certain meets to play, such as Santa Anita, Del Mar and Oak Tree while using the other months to evaluate and compile information. 

So, I am going to stop on the blog for a few months until I am up to date on everything, which — if all goes well — should be sometime in early 2010.

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Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 1 — lost $300

Joel Rosario harnessed Paddy's Magic's speed then let him loose in the stretch

Joel Rosario harnessed Paddy's Magic's speed then let him loose in the stretch

To me, it looked like #1 Paddy’s Magic could have taken a maiden special weight race rather than the $32,000 maiden claimer that he won.

Not only did this gelding, who was the 8-to-5 favorite, win by a wide margin, but he also broke slowly and made up four lengths on the backstretch in the blink of an eye. On Aug. 23, Paddy’s Magic had a bad trip when running a 65 Beyer Speed Figure, but I did not see five lengths worth of trouble.

Breaking next to Paddy’s Magic in this race was #2 Learn the Sport, who ran a 76 Beyer on Sept. 4. Coming into the race, I liked Learn the Sport because he had the right running style for 6-1/2 furlongs, he had the top last race Beyer and he was 4-to-1.

But it wasn’t Learn the Sport’s day, as jockey Reyes Santiago pushed him along in the stretch without response. I also liked two second timers in here but neither of them landed in the odds zone. 

In the end, I bet $300 on #2 Learn the Sport.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Paddy’s Magic (KY) Rosario J Zucker H 1.60 1
2 2 Learn the Sport (KY) Santiago Reyes C Abrams B 4.20 5
3 3 Bernsie’s Baby (CA) Atkinson P Van Berg J 102.30 8
4 4 Raja (CA) Arambula P Martinez S 171.40 9
5 5 Nanni the Teaser (KY) Delgadillo A Harty E 12.80 7
6 6 Hawk Star (CA) Valdez F Fama D 48.70 3
7 7 Big Mikie M. (CA) Baze M Eurton P 5.70 6
8 8 Boo Too (KY) Talamo J Periban J 13.00 4
9 9 Remember Mike (KY) Flores D Conlon M 2.40 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $5.20 $2.80 $2.60
9 $4.00 $3.60
6 $15.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $11.00 (1-9)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1433.90 (1-9-6-8)

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 10 — lost $500

Jockey Joe Talamo took #7 Get My Fix off the pace then rolled to victory in the stretch

Jockey Joe Talamo took #7 Get My Fix off the pace then rolled to victory in the stretch

 Usually, when Bob Baffert starts two horses in a race, one or both of them run huge.

In this event, Baffert saddled both #4 The Program, 16-to-1, and #5 Mr Charlie, 4-to-1. But, surprisingly, both broke slowly and neither one fired.

The winner, #7 Get My Fix trained by Brian Koriner, was one of the most likely winners when looking at the past performances. This 2-year-old had run a 79 Beyer Speed Figure in his second lifetime start on Aug. 8, which is significant because the median Beyer Speed Figure for this class is an 80. In his last race, Get My Fix rated behind the leaders and finished up well, which is the preferred running style for 6-1/2 furlongs.

Others who looked like they had a shot were #9 Frisco Kid, a first-time starter who went off at 13-to-1, and #1 The Skinny Man, a 7-to-2 shot. Neither ran well, although The Skinny Man showed speed until the stretch.

In the race, Get My Fix and jockey Joe Talamo mowed down pace setter #10 El Gran Matador while outrunning another late runner, #6 Domonation. In my betting scenario, I intended to bet $200 on Get My Fix if his odds were 5-to-2 or better. But the bet was live only if both #4 The Program and #9 Frisco Kid were 8-to-1 and #5 Mr Charlie was less than 4-to-1.

As the horses loaded into the gate, I bet The Program at 16/1 and Frisco Kid at 13/1. Then Mr Charlie’s odds moved up from 7/2 to 4/1, so I ended up betting him instead of Get My Fix. In all, I wagered $500.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 The Skinny Man (KY) Bejarano R O’Neill D 3.90 9
2 2 Kuro (KY) Espinoza V Machowsky M 15.40 6
3 3 Mister Do It (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Hendricks D 53.90 10
4 4 The Program (KY) Garcia M Baffert B 16.00 5
5 5 Mr Charlie (KY) Smith M Baffert B 4.00 8
6 6 Domonation (KY) Rosario J Sadler J 8.40 2
7 7 Get My Fix (KY) Talamo J Koriner B 2.80 1
8 8 Brady Blue Eyes (KY) Borel C Glatt M 4.20 4
9 9 Frisco Kid (FL) Solis A Headley B 13.60 7
10 10 El Gran Matador (NY) Santiago Reyes C Becerra R 53.70 3
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $7.60 $4.40 $3.60
6 $9.40 $6.80
10 $16.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $39.30 (7-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $91.20 (5-1-7)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $1679.50 (8-2/5-1-7)
$1.00 Pick 5 paid $3351.10 (1/6/9-8-2/5-1-7)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $583.30 (10 OF 10)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $0.00 (NO WINNING TICKE
$1.00 Superfecta paid $9445.30 (7-6-10-8)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $1372.40 (7-6-10)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $84.40 (1-7)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $11781.60 (10-1/6/9-8-2/5-1-7)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $89.60 (10-1/6/9-8-2/5-1-7)

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 5 — lost $450

Trainer Bob Baffert gave a leg up to jockey Rafael Bejarano on 4-to-5 shot Excellent News

Trainer Bob Baffert gave a leg up to jockey Rafael Bejarano on 4-to-5 shot Excellent News

Almost all of Bob Baffert’s horses are bred to win stakes races, so they can dominate a field of maiden special weight sprinters at any moment.

Rafael Bejarano rode #10 Excellent News in her third lifetime race after she spun an 82 Beyer Speed Figure in her second race on Aug. 29. Since the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this race was just an 80, Excellent News was a standout — especially considering that the next highest Beyer was just a 69.

There were no secrets with this filly. She had the top Beyer, a top jockey and a top trainer. It was easy to see her outstanding qualifications and it was no surprise that the public knocked Excellent News’ odds to 4-to-5.

But with odds this low, horses need to win some 70-to-80 percent of the time to make a bet worthwhile. And all of us bettors are all dealing with incomplete information, so it’s tough to find angles that work seven out of 10 times.

A couple of first timers in this race — #4 Stunning Ally and #7 Carrie Rose — had strong long-term angles working for them. And I also took a chance on second-time starter #5 Evening Jewel.

However, Excellent News won like a 4-to-5 shot should win.

At the window, I wagered $200 on Stunning Ally at 9/1, $100 on Evening Jewel at 5/1 and $150 on Carrie Rose at 8/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Dance the Dance (CA) Talamo J Hofmans D 37.50 6
2 2 Shesoprovocative (CA) Espinoza V Becerra R 13.20 5
3 3 Pocatello Wild Kat (CA) Baze M Fanning J 63.20 8
4 4 Stunning Ally (CA) Quinonez A Canani J 9.50 4
5 5 Evening Jewel (CA) Smith M Cassidy J 5.40 2
6 6 Giveme Onereason (CA) Santiago Reyes C Solis W 35.10 3
7 7 Carrie Rose (CA) Gomez G Mitchell M 8.30 9
8 8 Tiz Cee’s Ballet (CA) Martin G Locke T 57.40 10
9 9 High Five Gal (CA) Rosario J O’Neill D 7.00 7
10 10 Excellent News (CA) Bejarano R Baffert B 0.80 1
Pgm Win Place Show
10 $3.60 $2.40 $2.40
5 $4.60 $4.20
6 $8.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $8.80 (10-5)
$1.00
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