Saturday, Santa Anita Race 10 — 5 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 2-year-olds, 6-1/2 furlongs

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#1 The Skinny Man                       3/1
#4 The Program                            12/1
#5 Mr Charlie                                6/1
#7 Get My Fix                               5/2
#9 Frisco Kid                                 8/1

On Aug. 29, co-favorites #1 The Skinny Man raced against #7 Get My Fix and only a whisker separated the two for second place. Both colts have decent early speed, they’ve both run in the neighborhood of the 80 median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class, and they’re learning how to rate.

Either of them can win, but it won’t be easy.

Although neither half of the uncoupled Bob Baffert entry came close to winning their debut, I expect either #4 The Program or #5 Mr Charlie to run very well today. I have seen Baffert work his magic too many times to ignore his colts even when the morning line maker seems to be disregarding them. 

The Program appears to have been bought for $310,000 while Mr Charlie looks like a $725,000 purchase. Although these purchase prices are published in the Daily Racing Form, sometimes nobody really paid that much for the horse and the published sale price is the amount the animal was bought back for when the sale’s reserve price was not met.  Anyway, Baffert doesn’t train many mules and these two have been working out well. So I expect big things.

In The Program’s last race, he came out of the gate very slowly and while watching the replay it was difficult to tell if jockey Mike Smith intentionally pulled him to the back. But one thing I am sure of is that Smith certainly wasn’t hustling The Program down the backstretch.

And another thing that makes me curious about The Program is that, according to my records, Baffert and The Program’s jockey Martin Garcia won with five first-time starters from just 12 rides for a return of $3.31 for every $1 wagered. These Baffert/Garcia firsters were all in 2006-07, so they happened too long ago to be included in the DRF’s statistics, which show that the Baffert/Garcia team are 0-for-3 overall since 2008.

I know The Program is not running in his debut, but my point is that Garcia might be one of Baffet’s money riders. All I am saying is beware.

As for Mr Charlie, he seemed to be full of run in his Sept. 7 race. As it began, Mr Charlie went to the lead with hardly any encouragement from jockey Joe Talamo. However, right next to Talamo that day was Indian Firewater, who is another Baffert runner, and Indian Firewater exploded in the stretch while Mr Charlie faded.

But I’m sure that was not Mr Charlie’s best run.

OK, moving on. The last promising horse is #9 Frisco Kid. The only drawback with him is that trainer Bruce Headley is 0-for-11 with debuting MSW juveniles over the last five years, according to “A Closer Look” in the DRF. Otherwise, Frisco Kid is the prototype of what a winning debuter looks like.

And don’t ask me why, but a higher percentage of first timers win at 6-1/2 furlongs than at any other distance.

At odds of 7/2 to 19/1, I will bet $200 to win on #9 Frisco Kid. Also, I’ll put $150 on #4 The Program at 5/1 or better and $150 on #5 Mr Charlie at 4/1 or more. However, if The Program and Frisco Kid both go off at odds of 8/1 or higher and Mr Charlie is less than 4/1, then I will also put $200 on #7 Get My Fix at 5/2 or more.

Advertisements

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 5 — 2:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, 2-yo fillies

Possible overlays                       Morning line

#1 Dance the Dance                           15/1
#4 Stunning Ally                                  6/1
#5 Evening Jewel                                 6/1
#7 Carrie Rose                                     8/1

The obvious favorite of this bunch is #10 Excellent News, who rang up an 82 Beyer Speed Figure in her last race on Aug. 29 while finishing second to Miss Georgie Girl. Since Excellent News has already ran a speed figure that’s better than the median winning number of 80, she is the most likely winner. However, the Baffert brand name will ensure she’s way overbet.

Therefore, I’m looking toward either a couple of first time starters or a filly making her second lifetime run to get the job done at a price.

Over the past year or so, trainer Mike Mitchell has been firing well with his young horses when he sends them out in their debuts.  And it doesn’t hurt that Garrett Gomez will be aboard #7 Carrie Rose, especially when noting that the Gomez-Mitchell tandem has produced 27 winners from their last 82 runners. A $1 bet on all of them yielded $1.31, according to the Daily Racing Form.

James Cassidy saddles #5 Evening Jewel who was bet to 9/2 in her first lifetime race on Aug. 23. On that day, Evening Jewel ran evenly in the middle of the pack, however when I watched the replay it looked to me like  jockey David Flores was taking it easy on her. This filly has some nice workouts and she fits the profile of a winning second-time starter.

Breaking just inside of Evening Jewel will be #4 Stunning Ally, who is another debuter. Julio Canani has this daughter of In Excess working out well and she looks like a bet if the price is right.

Finally, owners Rod and Lorraine Rodriguez have had much success winning with debut horses over the years, but I am not that big of a fan of their filly, #1 Dance the Dance. At the right price, though, a small bet based on the connections may be in order.

I will wager $200 on #7 Carrie Rose from 3/1 to 9/1, but just $100 at 10/1 and up. Also, I will take  $200 on #5 Evening Jewel at 5/2 to 9/1 and $100 at 10/1 or higher. Finally, if #4 Stunning Ally is 7/2 to 9/1, I want $150 to win on her, but I’ll take $200 to win at 10/1 to 19/1.

%d bloggers like this: