Cal Cup Day audible

Today is Cal Cup Day at Santa Anita, so the card is filled with stakes race for California Breds.

That means no maiden races were scheduled. However, instead of posting nothing, I looked at the Juvenile and the Juvenile fillies, which are filled with lightly-raced horses that have done nothing but break their maidens in state bred races.

Many of these runners wouldn’t stand a chance in maiden special weight open company in Southern California. So these two 7-furlong stakes are almost like handicapping maiden races.

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Saturday, Santa Anita Race 10 — 4:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers the Cal Cup Juvenile

Maiden King conquers the Cal Cup Juvenile

Cal Cup Juvenile, 7 furlongs, $100,000 purse

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#3 Really Uptown                       5/1
#5 Wolf Tail                              5/1 

It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Cal Cup Juvenile Filles race be run in a faster time than this one.

The top maiden special weight races for 2-year-old colts at 6-1/2 to 7 furlongs are won with Beyer Speed Figures in the low-to-mid 90’s, but the highest figure in this bunch is a lowly 76.

These colts appear to be rather ordinary, however #5 Wolf Tail looks like he has the right running style for the distance. Wolf Tail showed his hand on July 29 when he rallied from 4-1/2 lengths off the pace to nail Grace Upon Grace by a nose in the Graduation Stakes at 5-1/2 furlongs.

Wolf Tail shares the highest overall Beyer with #1 Warren’s Doc Gus, who is running in his second lifetime race.

One colt who might be a sleeper is #3 Really Uptown, who is coming off of a 4-month layoff. In the Spring, Really Uptown ran three Beyer Speed Figures in the 70s, so his natural growth may allow him to run in the 80’s today.

At 3/1 or higher, I will put $200 to win on both #3 Really Uptown and #5 Wolf Tail.

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 1:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers the Cal Cup

Maiden King conquers the Cal Cup Juvenile Fillies

Cal Cup Juvenile Fillies, 7 furlongs, $100,00 purse

 

 

 Possible overlays                          Morning line

#2 Miss Georgie Girl                          2/1
#3 Camille C                                    9/2

Since I don’t have information on juvenile stakes races, I’m using Beyer Speed Figures for maiden special weight races to try to figure out how fast theses horses need to go to win this race.

The best Beyers for maiden juvenile fillies at 6-1/2 to 7 furlongs are in the low 80’s range. So a filly that can run in the mid-to-upper 80’s has a good shot in here, I believe.

Garrett Gomez rides #2 Miss Georgie Girl and she has the best last race Beyer and best Beyer overall. That’s a lethal one-two punch at 7 furlongs in the maiden ranks.

On Aug. 29 at 5-1/2 furlongs, Miss Georgie Girl pressed a hot pace where the quarter mile was run in 21.3 and the half was 44.4. In the stretch, she had plenty left as she won by a length and earned an 85 Beyer.

That race was run so fast that Miss Georgie Girl projects to be the quickest horse to the quarter mile of these runners. This filly may press the pace again, but she also gives Gomez the option of gunning straight for the lead and not looking back.

The best chance #3 Camille C has to win is to go right to the front. Luckily for her, the early fractions at 7 furlongs are going to be much slower than when she wired a field in the General Portion Stakes at 6 furlongs on Sept. 2.

On that day, Camille C’s dawdled through the second quarter mile and, if both fillies run their best today, she shouldn’t be able to keep up with Miss Georgie Girl.

I will put $200 to win on #2 Miss Georgie Girl at 2/1 and up.

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