Cal Cup Juvenile Fillies, 7 furlongs, $100,00 purse
Possible overlays Morning line
#2 Miss Georgie Girl 2/1
#3 Camille C 9/2
Since I don’t have information on juvenile stakes races, I’m using Beyer Speed Figures for maiden special weight races to try to figure out how fast theses horses need to go to win this race.
The best Beyers for maiden juvenile fillies at 6-1/2 to 7 furlongs are in the low 80’s range. So a filly that can run in the mid-to-upper 80’s has a good shot in here, I believe.
Garrett Gomez rides #2 Miss Georgie Girl and she has the best last race Beyer and best Beyer overall. That’s a lethal one-two punch at 7 furlongs in the maiden ranks.
On Aug. 29 at 5-1/2 furlongs, Miss Georgie Girl pressed a hot pace where the quarter mile was run in 21.3 and the half was 44.4. In the stretch, she had plenty left as she won by a length and earned an 85 Beyer.
That race was run so fast that Miss Georgie Girl projects to be the quickest horse to the quarter mile of these runners. This filly may press the pace again, but she also gives Gomez the option of gunning straight for the lead and not looking back.
The best chance #3 Camille C has to win is to go right to the front. Luckily for her, the early fractions at 7 furlongs are going to be much slower than when she wired a field in the General Portion Stakes at 6 furlongs on Sept. 2.
On that day, Camille C’s dawdled through the second quarter mile and, if both fillies run their best today, she shouldn’t be able to keep up with Miss Georgie Girl.
I will put $200 to win on #2 Miss Georgie Girl at 2/1 and up.