Monday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — 5:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3yo’s & up

Possible overlays                                  Morning line

#5 Benjamin Z                                    3/1
#7 Domestic Gold                                9/2
#8 Only Be Cause                               5/1
#12 Bango                                         5/1
#13 Candy Coat                                  8/1
(Note: #5 Benjamin Z was a race day scratch)

Zayat Stables bought #5 Benjamin Z for $950,000 in 2007, but he never hit the board in three maiden special weight starts last year. So today, he’s transferred from Steve Asmussen to Mike Mitchell, who drops him into this spot off of a seven-month vacation.

I’ve seen Mitchell use a similar move before, but he gelded the horse. I plan to look at the changes on Monday to see if the track announces that Benjamin Z is a new gelding.

Both #7 Domestic Gold and #8 Only Be Cause have the right running style for 6-1/2 furlongs, but they’re Beyer Speed Figures are a bit weak as the median winning number for this class is a 77. Only Be Cause was bet to 3-to-1 or less in each of his last five races only to lose them all. Today, jockey Victor Espinoza rides.

I would normally not look to a first-time starter to contend in this type of race, but trainer Clifford Sise is cagey so he may get #13 Candy Coat to run first time out. Candy Coat is owned by Halo Farms, a barn that won with two of their last six debuters since 2006. Finally, #12 Bango wouldn’t need to improve much in his second start to take down the top prize.

Because #5 Benjamin Z was scratched this morning, I revised my bets. I will put $200 to win on the higher-odds horse between #7 Domestic Gold and #8 Only Be Cause.

Also, I want $100 to win on #13 Candy Coat at odds of 5/1 to 14/1 and $150 on #12 Bango at 2/1 to 7/1 only. If both Candy Coat and Bango are out of the betting zone, Then I will put $200 on both Domestic Gold and Only Be Cause as long as they are 5/2 or more. 

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: