Maiden Special Weight, 2 yo fillies, 5-1/2 furlongs
Possible overlays Morning line
#1 Retail 20/1
#2 Marishka Moon 15/1
#3 Intentional 12/1
#4 Romanette 6/1
#5 Tell a Kelly 12/1
#9 Pacific Pride 7/2
Recently, a fair share of low-priced winners have come storming home in these 2-year-old maiden special weight races. And today might be no different, as #6 Dazzling Display, #7 Pedaltothemedal and #9 Pacific Pride all look strong.
However, some other productive connections are starting horses that will probably be overlooked by the betting public. Although most of his maiden success with first-time starters is in the claiming ranks, trainer Brian Koriner has popped a few in these classier races also. He saddles #3 Intentional, who shows some quick workouts and is an early foal.
The owners of #5 Tell a Kelly have a good record with their first timers, as does the filly’s trainer, John Sadler. Most of Sadler’s debut winners were ridden by top jockeys like Rafael Bejarano, Garrett Gomez and Joel Rosario but, percentage-wise, Sadler has done just as well with riders who have less of a following at the betting windows, such as Christian Santiago Reyes, Tyler Baze, Martin Pedroza and Martin Garcia.
So, having 8-percent rider Alsonso Quinonez aboard Tell a Kelly shouldn’t be seen as a drawback. However, being a May foal is a drawback, as anybody can testify who watched even money debuter Just Imagine hang in the stretch of Saturday’s seventh race.
At odds of 7/2 to 19/1, I will wager $200 on both #3 Intentional and #5 Tell a Kelly. If both International and Tell a Kelly fall between 8/1 and 19/1, then I also want $300 to win on #9 Pacific Pride at 7/2 to 9/1. If Pacific Pride’s post time odds are less than 7/2, then I will pull back the $300 and instead bet $200 to win on #4 Romanette at odds of 5/2 to 4/1 only.
Also, if either or both International and Tell a Kelly are 10/1 to 19/1 then I will key them for second in $25 exactas 6,7,9 with 3,5 and for third in $5 trifectas 6,7,9 with 4,6,7,9,3,5 with 3,5.
Lastly, I will put $100 to win on #2 Marishka Moon at 10/1 to 19/1 only.