Maiden Claiming $25,000, 6.5 furlongs, 3yo and up
Possible overlays Morning line
# 5 Squire Trelawny 6/1
#8 Mystification 10/1
#9 Kinky Rule 2/1
#12 Delicato 8/1
#13 Six Pack Man 6/1
None of these horses recently have come close to the 78 Beyer Speed Figure needed to win a race like this, and most of these runners have lots of starts without a win.
I can’t see any great-looking angles to play either, but it’s worth noting that trainer Clifford Sise has excelled in races like these over the last few years. However the one he trains, #9 Kinky Rule, has morning line odds of just 2/1. Also, trainer Mike Puype has won 12 of 33 recent races off of a 61-to-180 day layoff, according to the Daily Racing Form. Puype’s horse #13 Six Pack Man is 6/1 on the morning line and is working out well, according to clocker Andy Harrington of the National Turf Clocker Report.
Finally, #12 Delicato ran much better than looked in July when he was slammed at the start, rallied four wide and then was breezed by the jockey in the final 25o yards — all while still running a 70 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s dropping in class today and Delicato’s trainer Jerry Fanning switches to Michael Baze from Joe Talamo.
Talamo rides #8 Mystification, (10/1 ML) who comes from behind and could get there too if he improves and everything breaks right. The leading rider Rafael Bejarano rides #5 Squire Trelawny who can win if he gets a good trip and nobody else runs at least a 78 Beyer.
I will bet $250 on #9 Kinky Rule at 2/1 or more. But if Kinky Rule goes off at lower than 2/1, then instead I will bet $150 on the following horses as long as they are 9/2 or better: #5 Squire Trelawny, #12 Delicato and #13 Six Pack Man. If I can’t get 2/1 on #9, then I’ll also put $100 on Mystification at 8/1 or better.