Maiden Special Weight, 2 yo’s, 5-1/2 furlongs
Possible overlays Morning line
#1 Red Sharp Humor 8/1
#4 Rock So Hard 5/1
#6 The Phenom 9/2
#7 Prayer for Relief 6/1
#8 Purgestein 12/1
#9 Just Imagine 7/2
Eight out of 10 of these horses are making their first lifetime starts. I plan to take good prices then let the chips fall where they may.
Most of this debuters have some good things to like, but almost all of them have drawbacks. Bob Baffert starts two colts in the race. Baffert has an outstanding record when using Martin Garcia on a horse making its first start, but #4 Rock So Hard is a May foal, while #7 Prayer for Relief — ridden by Martin Pedroza — was born in February.
Breaking from the rail, #1 Red Sharp Humor looks solid for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and he employs jockey Tyler Baze, who usually gets his maidens to the front early. Trainer John Sadler sends out #6 The Phenom, who has been fast in the morning. Sadler has done well with young Florida breds, but The Phenom is also May foal.
Finally, #8 Purgestein needs to be considered at what will probably be double digit odds, while the top team of owner Paul Reddam, trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Joel Rosario might do it with #9 Just Imagine.
At 10/1 to 19/1, I will put $200 to win on #1 Red Sharp Humor and #8 Purgestein. Also, I want $300 to win on the higher odds of Florida breds #4 Rock So Hard and #6 The Phenom. Finally, if Baffert’s second horse, #7 Prayer for Relief, is 5/1 or higher, I’ll take $300 to win on him also.