Wednesday, Del Mar Race 10

July 20, 2010 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Possible overlays    

#4 Tiger Trysts
#7 Proud Jenny
#8 Bigmikeistheman
#9 Elessar
#10 Jakesam
#12 Celestic Night
#13 Liquid Asset

I am writing this early Tuesday morning, so I do not have access to the morning lines. But, by the looks of the past performances, the likely favorites are #8 Bigmikeistheman, #9 Elessar and #13 Liquid Asset — a colt that needs to draw in from the also eligible list.

First time starters at nice prices win lots of these 2-year-old maiden claiming races, and five of them are scheduled to run in this one. The median Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 64, which is 10 points higher than any of the experienced runners have earned.

Although owners First Home Thoroughbreds haven’t won with many debut runners, #4 Tiger Trysts looks to have potential. Trainer Adam Kitchingman has done very well with this class of runner when the horse is making its first start. However, all Tiger Trysts’ workouts are slow, which suggests that either Kitchingman has taken great pains to hide the horse’s talent or Tiger Trysts can’t run.

Jerry Hollendorfer sends out #10 Jakesam and he’ll leg up jockey Tyler Baze, who always seems to be sending his maidens to the lead. Hollendorfer wins with 29 percent of his debuters, according the Daily Racing Form, but most of his victories came in Northern California. Jockey Joel Rosario, who was the leading rider at the recently completed Hollywood Park meet, has a great record on debuting horses. Rosario rides #12 Celestic Night.

The horse who will probably be the best wagering opportunity is #9 Elessar. Trainer Kathy Walsh is very good with horses running for the second time and Elessar showed a good burst in the stretch on June 11 at Golden Gate while zig-zagging down the lane.

Another experienced runner, #8 Bigmikeistheman, has also shown some ability. Bigmikeistheman probably would have won on May 20, as he was cruising on a two-length lead. However, the gelding lost his action when he banged into the rail in a fluke occurence.

In his last race on July 1, Bigmikeistheman was four-wide all the way on the turn then bore out throughout the stretch to miss by a head as the 7-to-5 favorite in a weak contest.

If #9 Elessar is 2-to-1 or greater, I will bet $600 on him to win. Also, I will put $100 on #7 Proud Jenny and #10 Jakesam if their post time odds are in the 10/1 to 19/1 range. Finally, at 7/2 to 19/1, I will wager $150 on #4 Tiger Trysts and #12 Celestic Night.

It’s true that my bets total $1,100, but I do not expect every horse to fall into the necessary odds ranges, so I will likely end up wagering less than $1,000.

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Shooting for $10,000 at Del Mar. Will sun shine on me?

July 19, 2010 — maidenking

Throngs of horseplaying, hat-wearing revelers are sure attend Del Mar's opening day on Wednesday.

 On June 25, 2008 — in the spirit of the book “My $50,000 Year at the Races”  — I started off with an imaginary bankroll of $50,000 and attempted to bet my way to $100,000 by June 25, 2009. 

The night before the races, I posted summaries of the merits of each prospective maiden contender, then wrote up my betting plan for the day.  When the results were in, I posted them on the site with a recap of the money that I either won or lost. 

For the year, I won 42 of the 133 races that I wagered on,  or 31.5 percent. I bet $59,715 and collected $76,495 for a profit of $16,780. My average race bet was $448 and my average payoff on the races I won was $1,821. Over the 133 races, I made $1.28 for every $1 bet for an average yield of $126 for each race wagered on. 

In 1978, Andrew Beyer published “My $50,000 Year at the Races” after experiencing, in 1977, a dizzying year that took him on the roller coaster ride of winning $10,000 one day, while being so frustrated on another day that he bashed a hole in the Gulfstream Park press box wall. 

When the ride stopped, Beyer had won $50,664 from a beginning bankroll of just $8,000. 

On Maiden King, I didn’t reach my goal of $100,000, but I believe even billionaire Warren Buffett would be happy with a 28 percent annual return on his money pile. At one frustrating point — when it seemed like a every maiden sprint for the next decade was going to be won by a 3-to-5 shot — I almost punched a hole in the wall, too. But I sort of need my hands, so I didn’t. 

However, that got me wondering…when the stock market crashed in 2008, did Buffett bash a hole in the wall of his Berkshire Hathaway office in Omaha? You know he probably wanted to. 

Anyway, after taking several months off to catch up on things, I am back for Del Mar. My theme for the 37-day meeting is to try to make $10,000 by closing day, which is Sept. 8, by betting $1,000 a day on maiden races. 

This goal is quite realistic because 27 percent of $37,000 is $10,000. My only problem is that my strongest races are maiden claiming sprints and Del Mar may not have any of these on some days. Again, I will start with $50K and see where it goes.

I expect to do well, but if you see me walking around Las Vegas with a cast on my right hand, you’ll know that things may not have gone according to plan.

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