Median winning Beyer Speed Figure: 78
Possible overlays Morning line
#1 Chestnut Moon 8/1
#2 Melrose Woods 12/1
#4 Magic Fire 8/1
#7 Lady Vivien 6/1
#8 Dixie in Pink 12/1
#9 Salt Tequila Lime 9/2
Although morning-line favorite #6 Nihilist showed early speed in her Sept. 3 debut where she exceeded the median winning Beyer Speed Figure with an 81, I am betting against her.
It’s not that she doesn’t have a great trainer and jockey. She does.
And it’s not that she isn’t the most likely winner. She is.
But I estimate her odds will be somewhere between even money and 3-to-2.
Instead, I will take my chances with some of the other first and second time starters who may fly under the radar and strike at a big price.
Although #9 Salt Tequila Lime loses points for being a May foal, trainer Bob Baffert has done well with first-time starters in sprints longer than 6 furlongs. On the inside, Both #1 Chestnut Moon and #2 Melrose Woods are conditioned by cagey trainers.
My betting strategy: At odds of 7/2 or better, I will wager $400 on #9 Salt Tequila Lime. Between the odds of 8/1 and 19/1, I will put $100 on the two highest-odds horses among #1 Chestnut Moon, #2 Melrose Woods and #8 Dixie in Pink. Finally, I want $150 to win on whoever is the longer price between #4 Magic Fire and #7 Lady Vivien.