Possible overlays Morning line
#1 Carlsbad Mountain 12/1
#2 Sea to Sky 15/1
#4 Consulado 5/2
#6 Symphonic Cat 12/1
#9 Declan 15/1
#10 Malibu Affair 20/1
#11 Bobby Flay 9/2
The way I see it, this race is #8 Welter Weight versus the world.
Trained by Steve Asmussen, first-time starter Welter Weight was bought for $1 million and sports two sparkling 6-furlong workouts: 1:11 1-5 on Dec. 28 and 1:11 flat on Dec. 21. This colt is the 9-to-5 morning line favorite and in the long run, debuters whose odds are below 2-to-1 are bad bets. Some of the information I keep relates to the price paid for unraced horses. Of all the debuters who were bought for $500,000 or more, 10 of them won out of 52 for a paltry return of just 48 cents for every $1 bet. At less than 2-to-1, they won 3 times in 13 tries for a 46 cent return on $1.
So, I am hoping Welter Weight gets pounded down to 6-to-5 at the windows, which will raise the prices of contenders like #4 Consulado and #11 Bobby Flay.
These runners have performed well in their only lifetime starts and wouldn’t have to improve much to win. And who knows if a monster is lurking among the other five first-time starters — so I will have to consider them if the price is right.
My Betting Strategy: At odds of 5/2 or more I will put $300 to win on #4 Consulado. If Consulado is bet below 5/2, then I want $200 to win on #11 Bobby Flay at 4/1 or better. Also, I will bet $100 on any first-time starter who goes off at between 10/1 and 19/1.