Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds
Possible overlays Morning line
#11 Saccente 10/1
#13 Only Be Cause 2/1
Bob Baffert drops #13 Only Be Cause from $50,000 claiming to this horse’s lowest level in nine lifetime starts. On Feb. 14, Only Be Cause ran 7 furlongs and finished a game second to a well-meant first time starter named The Major.
In that race, Only Be Cause earned a 77 Beyer Speed Figure which is well in excess of the 68 winning median Beyer Speed Figure for this class.
Of the three first time starters, #11 Saccente looks like a play if the odds fall the right way.
I will bet $350 to win on #13 Only Be Cause only if he is 2/1 or better and I’ll take $150 on #11 Saccente at 10/1 to 19/1.
When #2 Atta’ Girl scratched, I could tell that I probably would not be betting on this race. And sure enough, my other possible overlay #8 Juicy Lucy went off at odds of 7-to-5, while I was waiting for 3-to-1.
The favorite here, #4 Golden Rocketship, was able to win while never being challenged because jockey Joel Rosario slowed her down on the lead. She strolled through fractions of 23.28 seconds for the first quarter mile and 47.15 seconds for the half mile then won easily.
Golden Rocketship, who is trained by John Salder, paid $4.60 and I ended up making no wager.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
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Maiden claiming, $40,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds
Possible overlays Morning line
#2 Atta’ Girl 7/2
#8 Juicy Lucy 3/1
I’m hoping that #4 Golden Rocketship, the 8-to-5 morning line favorite, takes lots of money. This filly has good speed, but that quality is more valuable in races that are shorter than 6-1/2 furlongs.
Alex Solis looks live on #2 Atta’ Girl, who was four paths wide on the turn Feb. 28 then was caught in tight quarters in the stretch. She can run better than the 67 Beyer Speed Figure she earned, but she would not need to improve to take this.
Breaking from the outside, #8 Juicy Lucy was pinned on the inside in the stretch in the same race Atta’ Girl comes out of and she might run better with clear sailing.
I will bet $300 on #2 Atta’ Girl at 5/2 or more and $300 on #8 Juicy Lucy at 3/1 or better.
Of the 23 colts listed in this year’s second pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby future book pool, the two most likely to win at Churchill Downs on May 2 are Quality Road and Pioneerof the Nile.
Quality Road’s 4-1/4 length win in Gulfstream Park’s Fountain of Youth on Feb. 28 earned him a 113 Beyer Speed Figure, which ties for the highest Beyer with I Want Revenge’s Gotham Stakes performance. Both of these horses sat within a length of the leader then drew off in the stretch, leading some handicappers to believe they ran the same type of race.
But I don’t agree.
Quality Road stalked the pace in the one mile Fountain of Youth Stakes that was run in a quick 45-2/5 seconds for the half mile and 1:09-2/5 seconds for 6 furlongs. In the March 7 Gotham Stakes, I Want Revenge crawled in comparison.
The 1-1/16th mile Gotham fractions were 48-2/5 seconds for the half and 1:12-3/5 seconds for 6 furlongs. According to my pace numbers, which take track variant into consideration, Quality Road ran 10 lengths faster early than I Want Revenge.
Yes, the Fountain of Youth was run at one turn, while the Gotham Stakes was two turns, but that shouldn’t account for a 10-length pace difference.
Of course, I Want Revenge finished faster than Quality Road, but he had an almost ideal scenario of an extremely slow early pace with no traffic to fight through. So, since I Want Revenge didn’t exert himself early, he had plenty of punch left for the stretch.
I Want Revenge, who is trained by Jeff Mullins, is obviously talented, but I can virtually guarantee you that this horse won’t experience such a soft pace again until The Belmont Stakes in June. Quality Road was much more impressive, but trainer James Jerkens needs to continue working to harness this contender’s brilliant speed or else he’ll die in the Churchill Downs stretch.
Pioneerof the Nile, trained by Bob Baffert, has never cracked 100 on the Beyer scale, but his stretch kick in the Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 7 stamped him as a strong Derby contender. He’s scheduled to run against a small field in the 1-1/16th mile San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday.
The only knock on Pioneerof the Nile is that he also went slow early in the Lewis Stakes, but he is not a front runner. Rather, this colt sat far off the pace and overcame a troubled trip.
Kentucky Derby pari-mutuel betting is open through Sunday afternoon when the pools close and odds are locked in. This is the second of three Derby pools and Churchill Downs is also offering both Derby exacta betting and Kentucky Oaks wagering this weekend.
One of this year’s overly-hyped colts who does not look like a strong Derby horse to me is The Pamplemousse. This Julio Canani trainee won 1-1/8 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 28, but was loose on the lead and went six lengths slower than Quality Road through the first six furlongs. The Pamplemousse, who earned a 103 Beyer Speed Figure, set an OK pace considering the Sham is two turns, but his finishing time showed that he is not yet Derby material. This horse will need to run much better next time to get my money on Derby Day.
Lastly, Imperial Council moved from eighth place to second in the Gotham Stakes, but didn’t gain any ground on I Want Revenge. However, trainer Shug McGaughey has this colt going in the right direction and his Gotham effort shows that Imperial Council has the ability to run well at the Triple Crown distances.
It is true that any of these colts could get injured at any time and be pulled from the Derby. So getting decent odds to cover the risk is essential.
Anything over 10-to-1 on #17 Pioneerof the Nile seems fair. While I would need 15/1 on both #13 Imperial Council and #18 Quality Road for a bet.
As for The Pamplemousse, throw him out until he shows that he can win while leading on a fast pace that is combined with a strong finishing kick.
Canadian native and Internet phenom Chantal Sutherland will leave Santa Anita to begin riding at Woodbine in Toronto when it opens April 4.
After Woodbine’s opening weekend, Sutherland will come back to Santa Anita and stay until the meet ends on April 19. Afterward, she will remain at Woodbine for the racing season, Sutherland told the the Daily Racing Form’s Steve Anderson.
However, Sutherland, 33, is thinking about riding full time in Southern California in the future.
“Eventually, I’d like to stay here,” she said. “I’d like to get a Derby horse or a Breeders’ Cup horse.”
Sutherland is one of the riders featured in the “Jockeys” reality show on the Animal Planet network. The show has increased Sutherland’s popularity and on Maiden King she is by far the most searched name.
Sutherland, who grew up in Toronto, won her first race at Woodbine on Oct. 9, 2000. In 2001 and 2002, Sutherland was voted the Sovereign Award as Canada’s top apprentice jockey. She was eligible to win the award for two years because time did not elapse on her 12-month apprenticeship when Woodbine was closed for the winter.
In 2002, Sutherland became one of Canada’s highest paid female athletes when her horses earned $5.7 million for their owners, according to Wikipedia. She rode in Canada until 2005 when she headed south to Florida and New York where Angel Cordero, Jr., Shane Sellers and Edgar Prado helped hone her skills.
Last year, she was ranked third in the Woodbine jockey standings before starting to ride at Santa Anita’s Oak Tree meet in the fall. Through Thursday, Sutherland was 10th in the Santa Anita jockey standings with 15 wins on 112 mounts for a winning percentage of 13.
Sutherland told the DRF the reason she’s going home is because she makes good money at Woodbine and has connections with several of leading owners and trainers.
“I have an opportunity to go back to Canada and the purses are so good,” she said.
Maiden Claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up
Possible overlays Morning line
#4 Queen Mariles 9/2
#7 Crooked Smile 9/2
#11 Ampys Lil Girl 4/1
Three horses in this race are all lightly raced, dropping in class and are coming off recent long layoffs:they are #4 Queen Mariles, #7 Crooked Smile and #11 Ampys Lil Girl.
Crooked Smile, a 5 yo, has the best Beyer Speed Figure in the group while both #4 Queen Mariles and Ampys Lil Girl appear to have the best early gas from the gate. As usual, the deciding factor for me will be post time odds.
I will bet $350 if any of the three horses mentioned above are 2/1 to 7/2 only. If more than one of them fall into the zone, then I will still only bet one, and my order of preference is #4 Queen Mariles, #11 Ampys Lil Girl and #7 Crooked Smile.
Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, Cal-Bred fillies
Possible overlays Morning line
#5 Irridescent Red 8/1
#6 Humane 12/1
#7 Asanti 6/1
#11 Past Curfew 8/1
Of these 11 fillies, four are first-time starters and six are second timers.
I think I’ll have a better shot with the second timers in here than the debuters. On the rail, #1 Irish Pepper will likely be overbet with Garrett Gomez riding. However, #5 Irridescent Red showed good speed in her last and #7 Asanti ran a decent Beyer, is working out well and has the potential to be a strong bet.
Also, trainer Mike Puype, who saddles #11 Past Curfew, has been winning with second-time starters coming off layoffs during this meet. According to the DRF stats, Puype has six wins in 20 starts with this type of layoff, and is hitting at 24 percent with his second timers.
I will bet $150 on both #5 Irridescent Red at 3/1 and up and #7 Asanti at 9/2 to 15/1. But if Asanti is 2/1 to 4/1, then I’ll bump my bet to $250. Also, I will take $150 to win on #11 Past Curfew at 3/1 or higher.
Although I don’t wager on many non-maiden races, I do bet the big ones like the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont and the Breeders’ Cup.
A 13-horse field for the Santa Anita Handicap was too hard to resist, however my pick#5 Colonel John came down with a fever and was scratched. Therefore, I had no play.
Einstein tracked pace setter Matto Mondo to the stretch, wrestled the lead from him then held off #13 Champs Elysees to win by a length.
In the previous race, the Kilroe Mile, I was planning to bet #1 Ventura if she went off at her 2-to-1 morning line or better.
Ha!
The whole world loved this horse and she was pounded to 4-to-5. Ventura looked like the winner with 50 yards to go but #11 Gio Ponti got up in the last jump.
About three months ago, trainer Bobby Frankel was quoted in the newspaper saying that Ventura would win the Santa Monica Handicap then go on and beat the boys later in the year.
Well, Ventura got the job done in the Santa Monica on Jan. 31 and today’s the day she’s battling the boys in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap. Post time is 4:07 p.m.
I’ve watched this horse train on You Tube and she looks energetic, muscular and jockey Gomez is confident she’ll win. Furthermore, she performed well against males when finishing second in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile on Sept. 7, and beat colts in Great Britain’s Hyde Stakes in November 2007.
Today’s 10th race is the Santa Anita Handicap. I think #5 Colonel John has the best combination of early speed and closing kick. He’s being ridden by Garrett Gomez, the nation’s best jockey, and his Beyer Speed Figures have been on an upward trajectory since he began racing in the Fall of 2007. With natural growth and maturity, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this horse explode with a 110 Beyer today.
In the ninth race, if #1 Ventura is 2/1 or more I will bet $300 to win on her. While in the 1oth, I want $200 to win on #5 Colonel John at 3/1 or better.
Note: Colonel John was announced as a late scratch this morning.
Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds
Possible overlays Morning line
#3 Temerity 4/1
#5 Brian the Brave 15/1
Garrett Gomez takes over for jockey David Flores on #8 Unionize, the 8-to-5 morning line favorite. Trainer Clifford Sise had this horse ready to win in his Dec. 28 debut, as Unionize earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure but he couldn’t catch Point Encounter.
If, for some reason, Unionize isn’t at his best then #3 Temerity has a good chance to upset him. Ron Ellis brought this colt back from a six-month layoff on Feb. 7 to run a 79 Beyer Speed Figure in a 5-1/2 furlong race. Those races are dominated by early speed so this horse was at a disadvantage, but now fits well at 6-1/2 furlongs.
Finally, #5 Brian the Brave, a first-time starter, has a couple of swift workouts and may be a play at a price. Since I had never heard of Brian the Brave’s trainer, Carl O’Callaghan, I plugged his name into Google. I didn’t find much out about his training abilities, but discovered this native of County Clare is also a musician that spends his evenings belting out the Irish favorites at Arcadia-area bars.
I am guessing that “Irish Carl” works for Patrick Gallagher because Gallagher is the regular trainer for Super Horse, Inc., which owns Brian the Brave.
At the betting window, I will take $200 to win on #3 Temerity at 2/1 to 7/2 but just $150 to win at 4/1 and up. Also, I want a $150 win bet on #5 Brian the Brave at 5/1 to 19/1 only.
The TV show “Jockeys” is an exciting behind-the-scenes look at what it’s like to ride top Thoroughbreds on the lucrative and ultra-competitive Southern California racing circuit.
I watched back-to-back half-hour episodes on Animal Planet Feb. 27 where the story focused on jockeys Joe Talamo, Brendon Meier, Alex Solis and Solis’ son, bloodstock agent Alex Solis II.
Being that Talamo, Meier and Solis II are all less than 24 years old, the program was obviously slanted toward youth, at least in these episodes. The first show entitled “May the Horse Be With You” opened with the narrator telling us that Talamo, who won the 2007 Eclipse Award as the nation’s top apprentice, was losing lots of races lately.
“I’m on a cold streak and you always want to win,” said the 19-year-old Louisiana native. “I really want to win one today.”
Talamo was then shown, in three consecutive races, losing control of his horses as they swerved into the path of other runners. To display how damaging a horse fall can be, the producers showed footage of jockey Mike Smith getting tossed from a horse in 1998. Smith, who almost died from the accident, was in a body cast for a month, he said.
The jockeys on the program all seem to get along well, but they don’t take riding mistakes lightly. Bad rides can easily lead to crippling injuries or death.
After Talamo’s reckless incidents, one jockey put a white message board above Talamo’s locker, drew a racing oval and added a zig-zagged line throughout the oval. Above the drawing read: “Talamo’s path to the winner’s circle.” And another sign written by a rival above Talamo’s locker read, “What goes around comes around.”
When a horse impedes another, the jockey goes before three stewards who serve as the judge and jury for riders. They review the race replays and the rider explains what happened. If the stewards think the jockey was at fault, they are suspended for a few days and can’t make any money.
Jockeys are paid 10 percent of the owners share of the purse for winning a race, and 5 percent for second and third. Purses generally start at about $15,000 in Southern California for maiden claiming races and dramatically increase to millions of dollars for stakes races. The winning owner gets 60 percent of the purse, second place is 20 percent and third pays 10 percent.
So, riders make $900 for winning a race with a $15,000 purse and $60,000 if they win a $1 million stakes. Not bad for a couple of minutes work, but they spend hours every morning exercising horses and cultivating trainer relationships. Also, jockey booking agents take 20-25 percent of the rider’s pay.
Talamo met with the stewards and they watched his races together. The panel, who told Talamo they have no tolerance for careless riding, expected quicker reactions from Talamo when his horses were swerving during his races.
However, Talamo was riding inexperienced and sometimes unpredictable 2-year-old horses, so the stewards didn’t penalize him. “I think it’s fair to say that he was very close to suspension,” said steward Scott Cheney. “He could have acted a little bit faster.”
Viewers learn that these jockeys try to beat each other every day, but after the races they go out to dinner together, workout together and socialize with each other. During one scene, a table full of jockeys — at least the ones older than 21 — were sipping wine during dinner at an upscale restaurant. (And I thought all these guys drank was water and ate nothing more than a peanut or two a day.)
The conversation turned to how young jockeys are getting mounts on good horses today, whereas 10 or 20 years ago they would have to pay their dues first.
“It takes a long time to get good,” said Mike Smith, who won the 2005 Kentucky Derby aboard Giacomo. “You ain’t that good Joe. You aren’t going to get that good until you are in your 30’s”
In another scene, Smith had a party at his house and the wine glasses were full again. Gary Stevens attended and Talamo was amazed that he’d watched Stevens in the movie “Seabiscuit” just three years ago, and now he was hanging out at parties with him.
When Smith started riding, the veterans helped him out. So, Smith now advises Talamo and works out with him. They were shown jogging on the Santa Anita track. Afterward, he told Talamo to work hard and let trainers and owners know that he wants opportunities to ride good horses. But when given the the chance, he better make the most of it, Smith added.
“One good horse will make you famous,” Smith told Talamo.
At the beginning of the second half hour, entitled “Hands Down,” viewers are introduced to Alex Solis II, a 23-year-old bloodstock agent. Solis II, who was involved with the aquisition of Sham Stakes winner The Pamplemousse, purchases horses and solicits investors to buy shares in his runners.
If a bloodstock agent makes a good buy and the runner wins a stakes race, then the horse could be worth millions of dollars as a breeder. But pick the wrong horse, and investors can lose lots of money.
Minutes into the second half hour, viewers also meet Brandon Meier — an apprentice jockey who won 58 races in three months at Arlington Park. Meier, 20, is the son of jockey Randy Meier, who is the all-time leading rider at Sportsman’s Park and Hawthorne. But Brandon is having trouble getting mounts at Santa Anita.
The stewards keep a close eye on new riders like Meier and many trainers won’t use inexperienced jockeys, even though they get a 5-pound weight break.
“I use apprentices,” said trainer Bob Baffert. “But if you have a high profile horse, you want a veteran rider.”
In a dramatic moment, Meier finally got a mount that had a strong chance to win. His horse looked so good that, while jockey Jon Court was sitting around in the jockey’s room, he bet Aaron Gryder a Gatorade that Meier’s horse would defeat the one Talamo was riding.
Meier, who was on One Time at Band Camp, had the lead in the stretch, but Return of the King with Talamo came rolling home in the stretch to nail him by a nose.
To make matters worse, Meier drifted out in the lane, so he was summoned to the stewards office the next day for an explanation. Luckily, Meier didn’t get suspended.
One of Solis II’s horses, Lavender Sky, was ready to run and his father Alex Solis was looking forward to riding this classy animal, who trainer Dan Hendricks estimated to be worth at least $500,000.
“Normally your kids want to do great for you,” said jockey Solis, who is also the regular rider for The Pamplemousse. “I want to do great for him.”
But Solis couldn’t get Lavender Sky to run and she finished dead last.
In a couple of scenes, Meier’s girlfriend was pressuring him to come back to Arlington Park. Meier told her that if business didn’t pick up at Santa Anita then he’d think about making a move.
Journeyman jockeys either catch on or move on. And for Meier, business didn’t pick up, so he decided that after three weeks he’d had enough. He packed up his truck, said his goodbyes, and was off to the Churchill Downs/Keeneland circuit where he had some contacts.
“There are not enough horses and too many good jockeys here,” Meier said.
To horseplayers at simulcast centers watching races on TV screens, every horse looks like every other horse and the jockeys all look the same too. What a show like “Jockeys” does, is to put a human face on the game while shining a light on various racing interactions and subtleties.
But one thing I do not like about this show are the ridiculous race calls by track announcer Trevor Denman, which sound like they’re straight from an outdated video game. Denman has become one of America’s all-time great race callers because of the excitment and drama he adds that almost nobody can match. But on “Jockeys” he speaks in a monotone with lots of dead air while using riders names instead of horses names.
The show does him no justice.
Otherwise, for fans of horse racing and competitive sports, “Jockeys” is a winning ride.
“Jockeys” airs at 9 p.m Pacific Time Friday on Animal Planet. On March 6, the first half-hour “Legend of the Fallen” is about retired jockeys risking it all in one last comeback race. Also, Chantal Sutherland faces a difficult decision. The second half hour “Go Big or Go Home” sees 2007 Horse of the Year Curlin arriving at Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup.