Maiden King

Today is Cal Cup Day at Santa Anita, so the card is filled with stakes race for California Breds.

That means no maiden races were scheduled. However, instead of posting nothing, I looked at the Juvenile and the Juvenile fillies, which are filled with lightly-raced horses that have done nothing but break their maidens in state bred races.

Many of these runners wouldn’t stand a chance in maiden special weight open company in Southern California. So these two 7-furlong stakes are almost like handicapping maiden races.

Maiden King conquers the Cal Cup Juvenile

Cal Cup Juvenile, 7 furlongs, $100,000 purse

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#3 Really Uptown                       5/1
#5 Wolf Tail                              5/1 

It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Cal Cup Juvenile Filles race be run in a faster time than this one.

The top maiden special weight races for 2-year-old colts at 6-1/2 to 7 furlongs are won with Beyer Speed Figures in the low-to-mid 90’s, but the highest figure in this bunch is a lowly 76.

These colts appear to be rather ordinary, however #5 Wolf Tail looks like he has the right running style for the distance. Wolf Tail showed his hand on July 29 when he rallied from 4-1/2 lengths off the pace to nail Grace Upon Grace by a nose in the Graduation Stakes at 5-1/2 furlongs.

Wolf Tail shares the highest overall Beyer with #1 Warren’s Doc Gus, who is running in his second lifetime race.

One colt who might be a sleeper is #3 Really Uptown, who is coming off of a 4-month layoff. In the Spring, Really Uptown ran three Beyer Speed Figures in the 70s, so his natural growth may allow him to run in the 80’s today.

At 3/1 or higher, I will put $200 to win on both #3 Really Uptown and #5 Wolf Tail.

Maiden King conquers the Cal Cup Juvenile Fillies

Cal Cup Juvenile Fillies, 7 furlongs, $100,00 purse

 Possible overlays                          Morning line

#2 Miss Georgie Girl                          2/1
#3 Camille C                                    9/2

Since I don’t have information on juvenile stakes races, I’m using Beyer Speed Figures for maiden special weight races to try to figure out how fast theses horses need to go to win this race.

The best Beyers for maiden juvenile fillies at 6-1/2 to 7 furlongs are in the low 80’s range. So a filly that can run in the mid-to-upper 80’s has a good shot in here, I believe.

Garrett Gomez rides #2 Miss Georgie Girl and she has the best last race Beyer and best Beyer overall. That’s a lethal one-two punch at 7 furlongs in the maiden ranks.

On Aug. 29 at 5-1/2 furlongs, Miss Georgie Girl pressed a hot pace where the quarter mile was run in 21.3 and the half was 44.4. In the stretch, she had plenty left as she won by a length and earned an 85 Beyer.

That race was run so fast that Miss Georgie Girl projects to be the quickest horse to the quarter mile of these runners. This filly may press the pace again, but she also gives Gomez the option of gunning straight for the lead and not looking back.

The best chance #3 Camille C has to win is to go right to the front. Luckily for her, the early fractions at 7 furlongs are going to be much slower than when she wired a field in the General Portion Stakes at 6 furlongs on Sept. 2.

On that day, Camille C’s dawdled through the second quarter mile and, if both fillies run their best today, she shouldn’t be able to keep up with Miss Georgie Girl.

I will put $200 to win on #2 Miss Georgie Girl at 2/1 and up.

The first Travers I attended was with my father in 1982 when Runaway Groom beat the three horses that won the Triple Crown races — Gato Del Sol (Kentucky Derby), Aloma’s Ruler (Preakness Stakes) and Conquistador Cielo (Belmont Stakes).

The five-horse field was small, but the quality was high.

Conquistador Cielo, who was syndicated for $36 million before the Travers, was 2-to-5 that day and showed up in front bandages for the first time. Angel Codero, riding Aloma’s Ruler, pinned Conquistador Cielo on the bad rail in a two-horse speed duel.

The race caller didn’t recognize Runaway Groom until midstretch when  the Canadian invader was within two lengths of rolling by the two leaders. I was watching the race on the track apron and couldn’t believe my eyes.

Like everybody else, I believed Conquistador Cielo couldn’t lose.

Since that day, I’ve been to the Travers maybe 10 times and I can’t recall ever having the winner. But I keep coming back because, as I quickly found out in 1982, the atmosphere is tremendous.

This year, my results were no different, as I keyed Quality Road on top in the tri while putting both Charitable Man and Kensel on top in my exactas. Summer Bird, I deduced, was being overbet at 5-to-2 so I didn’t use him much.