Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds
Possible overlays Morning line
#2 Monolingual 4/1
#4 Great Legacy 5/1
#5 Fabulous Forum 12/1
The photo finish camera has not been friendly to #1 Turk, who lost his first two races by a nose. This Bob Baffert-trainee, which is also owned by the trainer, went off at 2-to-5 in his last two races and figures to be less than even money again today. Turk has run Beyer Speed Figures of 88, 86, and 86, so he looks solid here considering the median winning Beyer Speed Figure is an 87. Garrett Gomez takes over for Joel Rosario, who went very wide last time out.
To bet a horse like Turk, you must believe there is no chance he can lose. And, of course, there is always a chance that Turk will run like a turkey — or at least lose another photo because 5-1/2 furlongs is too short.
One colt that might beat him is #2 Monolingual, who is working out well and has Rafael Bejarano aboard. The owners, Ike and Dawn Thrash, have started two first timers over the last couple of years and both of them hit the board.
Another likely worth a bet is #4 Great Legacy. Trained by Eoin Harty, this colt is out of supersire Storm Cat, whose stud fee is $300,000.
Finally, if either Monolingual and Great Legacy don’t fall into the betting range then I will add #5 Fabulous Forum. This horse has been training down at San Luis Rey Downs with Peter Miller and Joel Rosario rides.
I will bet $250 to win on both #2 Monolingual and #4 Great Legacy at odds of 3/1 to 9/1 only. If the odds rise to 10/1 to 19/1 then my bet reduces to $100. Also, if the odds are less than 3/1 on either of them, then I will substitute for that horse a $100 win bet on #5 Fabulous Forum at 10/1 to 19/1.