Saturday, Santa Anita Race 2 — 1 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                       Morning line

#2 Monolingual                               4/1
#4 Great Legacy                            5/1
#5 Fabulous Forum                        12/1

The photo finish camera has not been friendly to #1 Turk, who lost his first two races by a nose. This Bob Baffert-trainee, which is also owned by the trainer, went off at 2-to-5 in his last two races and figures to be less than even money again today. Turk has run Beyer Speed Figures of 88, 86, and 86, so he looks solid here considering the median winning Beyer Speed Figure is an 87. Garrett Gomez takes over for Joel Rosario, who went very wide last time out.

To bet a horse like Turk, you must believe there is no chance he can lose. And, of course, there is always a chance that Turk will run like a turkey — or at least lose another photo because 5-1/2 furlongs is too short. 

One colt that might beat him is #2 Monolingual, who is working out well and has Rafael Bejarano aboard. The owners, Ike and Dawn Thrash, have started two first timers over the last couple of years and both of them hit the board.

Another likely worth a bet is #4 Great Legacy. Trained by Eoin Harty, this colt is out of supersire Storm Cat, whose stud fee is $300,000.

Finally, if either Monolingual and Great Legacy don’t fall into the betting range then I will add #5 Fabulous Forum. This horse has been training down at San Luis Rey Downs with Peter Miller and Joel Rosario rides.

I will bet $250 to win on both #2 Monolingual and #4 Great Legacy at odds of 3/1 to 9/1 only. If the odds rise to 10/1 to 19/1 then my bet reduces to $100. Also, if the odds are less than 3/1 on either of them, then I will substitute for that horse a $100 win bet on #5 Fabulous Forum at 10/1 to 19/1.

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2 Responses to “Saturday, Santa Anita Race 2 — 1 pm post time”

  1. Tom Morris Says:

    You said Turk was “solid”. So why did you bet against? Yes, horses that get “seconditis”, tend to repeat but this situation screams for “no bet”, odds to low.

  2. maidenking Says:

    I bet against him because I’m looking for any perceived edge that the tote board gives me. That includes wagering on contending horses at good prices, against weak favorites at low prices and against strong favorites who are grossly overbet.

    Horseplayers wouldn’t pound the odds down to minuscule payoffs if the horse didn’t look solid. Didn’t Big Brown look solid in the Belmont and Curlin in the Breeders’ Cup Classic? I had both D’Tara (38/1) and Ravens Pass (13/1), but also had lots of losers along the way.

    It works for me, but I also can definitely see why people would pass a race like that.


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