Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up
Possible overlays Morning line
#1 Wharf Cat 9/2
#7 Ribald 5/1
#8 Sangaree 6/1
#10 Adebayor 10/1
The key to playing this race is that #5 Holladay Road, a first-time starter, is the morning line favorite and I don’t think that he should be. Garrett Gomez is riding, but according to my records Gomez rode six older horse msw debuters over the last couple of years. Three of them were between 6-to-5 and 9-to-5 and three more were between 5-to-2 and 5-to-1. Only one of them won and it paid $5.60.
The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for these horses is an 85, so #1 Wharf Cat’s 86 BSF fits in well. Coming off a layoff, #7 Ribald flashed brilliant early speed last summer at Hollywood and it’s now or never for #8 Sangaree — the half brother to Congaree.
Historically, Carla Gaines has done well with second timers. Rafael Bejarano rides #10 Adebayo, who must have talent because he was bet to 5-to-2 in his February 2008 debut.
I will bet $200 on #7 Ribald at 3/1 or more and $150 on #10 Adebayor at 6/1 or better. Finally, I will play the longer of these two horses that is less than 10/1: #1 Wharf Cat and #8 Sangaree.