Maiden King

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 2-year-olds, 6 furlongs

Possible overlays                      Morning line

#1 Joburg Star                              6/1
#2 Alert Rocket                             15/1
#3 Asno Del Caramelo                     3/1
#6 Gahnzo Bob                              8/1

Curiously, three of the contending 2-year-olds in this main track race prepped on July 4 at 5 furlongs on the Hollywood Park turf.

All three — #1 Joburg Star, #3 Asno Del Caramelo, and #6 Gahnzo Bob — showed some potential without putting it all together for the whole race.

Trained by Peter Miller, Joburg Star was 4-to-8 paths wide throughout the turn, yet he still ran a 63 Beyer Speed Figure.

More forwardly placed, Asno Del Caramelo sat about three lengths off the lead, but was steadied hard on two different occasions to lose two lengths while earning a 66 BSF. Finally, Gahnzo Bob’s jockey Julio Garcia pulled him to the back of the pack as the race began, then Garcia kept him very wide on the turn, however the colt rallied well when asked. 

Gahnzo Bob only ran a 51 Beyer, but any of the three horses I mentioned can probably run a low-to-mid 70s Beyer Speed Figure.

Some of these 2-year-old maiden special weight races come up extremely strong, while others are very weak. The range of Beyer Speed Figures that have won at this class goes from 38 to 99, with the median being 75.

Trainer Bob Baffert starts #8 Benergy with his money man Martin Garcia at the controls. Benergy has had several sharp workouts, including a bullet on July 21. But over the last few years, Baffert has not had much success with debuting 2-year-olds at 6 furlongs. I much prefer to bet his first time starters at 5 or 5-1/2 furlongs.

Benergy is 5/2 on the morning line and I think the public could knock his odds to 2/1. 

Trainer Jeff Mullins teams up with jockey Rafael Bejarano on #4 Baby Tate. Mullins has had most of his success with second-time starters in maiden claiming races, not in these classier events. And Baby Tate looks no better than numbers 1, 3 and 6, yet his odds will probably be significantly lower than at least two of them. 

Lastly, debuter #2 Alert Rocket has had nothing but slow workouts, however he’s worth a bet if his odds fall between 10/1 and 19/1.

At 2/1 to 5/1, I will bet $150 to win on #3 Asno Del Caramelo. At 3/1 and up, I will put $200 to win on #1 Joburg Star and at 4/1 or higher I’ll put $300 to win on #6 Gahnzo Bob.

In the exotics — which are only live bets if the horses are in my odds zones — I want $50 exactas 6 with 1,3,8; $40 exactas 1 with 3,6,8; and $30 exactas 3 with 1,6,8.

Also, I’ll put $100 on #2 Alert Rocket at 10/1 to 19/1.

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 2yo fillies, 5-1/2 furlongs

Possible overlays                   Morning line

Of the 13 fillies listed in the past performances, eight of them are making their debuts. The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is a 61, which is seven points higher than any of the experienced horses have run.

But #5 Missilette, who is making her fifth start, has legitimate early speed for this class and that’s important at 5-1/2 furlongs.

Several of these first time starters look promising because  they have worked out well, they are saddled by high percentage trainers and are early foals. It would be no surprise to see any of #3 Sparrow, #9 Darling Disarray or #10 Natural Pearl hit the wire first.

Also, #1 Darling Ciana figures to go to post at double-digit odds and she is  bettable at the right price. Although, I likely won’t wager on #13 Mama’s Spell, it is worth noting that trainer Craig Lewis won with three of 17 debuters sired by Larry the Legend that went off at less than 20/1 since 2007.

At odds of 7/2 to 19/1, I will bet $300 to win on both #3 Sparrow and #9 Darling Disarray. At odds of 5/1 to 19/1, I want $200 on #1 Darling Ciana and #10 Natural Pearl.

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40K, 2 yo Cal Breds, 5-1/2 furlongs

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#3 Tahoe Yodeler                       5/1
#5 Call Me Later                         6/1
#9 Beer Friday                           20/1
#10 Warrens Heartthrob           12/1
#12 Swiss Tart                           7/2

Although #1 Tahoe Yodeler flashed early foot in his July 11 debut, I believe that #12 Swiss Tart is just a little quicker. On May 23, Swiss Tart was running under his own power while chasing River’s Chapel in a maiden special weight sprint, while in his debut Tahoe Yodeler was hustled to the front by jockey Felipe Valdez.

I am not saying that Swiss Tart will get the lead in here. But the quick first quarter mile shows that the horse has a good burst of speed, which will allow him to get position and make a move on the turn. However, if stable money slams Tahoe Yodeler’s odds to less than 4/1 then I will increase his chances and be forced to make a decision. 

Two first time starters in here come from connections that perform very well with debuting horses. But both #5 Call Me Later and #10 Warrens Heartthrob have nothing but slow workouts.

 I still like them both, though, at the right price.

Finally, if I see action on #9 Beer Friday, I will significantly upgrade his chances.

I will bet $200 to win each on #5 Call Me Later and #10 Warrens Heartthrob at 7/2 to 19/1.

If #1 Tahoe Yodeler’s post time odds are 2/1 to 4/1, then I will bet $200 on the longer of the two horses between him and Swiss Tart. If Tahoe Yodeler’s odds are 9/2 or more, then I will put the $200 on Swiss Tart at 2/1 or more.

Also, I’ll put $150 on #9 Beer Friday if he is 7/2 to 14/1.

In the exacta,  at odds of 5/1 to 19/1, I will key #5 Call Me Later and #10 Warrens Heartthrob. I will play $25 exactas 1-5-10-12 with 5-10. 

In the trifecta, I will key both #5 Call Me Later and #10 Warrens Heartthrob at odds of 10/1 to 19/1 only. I will bet $5 trifectas 1-5-10-12 with 4-5-6-7-10 with 5-10.

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 2 yo fillies, 5-1/2 furlongs

Possible overlays                Morning line

#1 Retail                                  20/1
#2 Marishka Moon                      15/1
#3 Intentional                           12/1
#4 Romanette                            6/1
#5 Tell a Kelly                            12/1
#9 Pacific Pride                           7/2

Recently, a fair share of low-priced winners have come storming home in these 2-year-old maiden special weight races. And today might be no different, as #6 Dazzling Display, #7 Pedaltothemedal and #9 Pacific Pride all look strong.

However, some other productive connections are starting horses that will probably be overlooked by the betting public. Although most of his maiden success with first-time starters is in the claiming ranks, trainer Brian Koriner has popped a few in these classier races also. He saddles #3 Intentional, who shows some quick workouts and is an early foal.

The owners of #5 Tell a Kelly have a good record with their first timers, as does the filly’s trainer, John Sadler. Most of Sadler’s debut winners were ridden by top jockeys like Rafael Bejarano, Garrett Gomez and Joel Rosario but, percentage-wise, Sadler has done just as well with riders who have less of a following at the betting windows, such as Christian Santiago Reyes, Tyler Baze, Martin Pedroza and Martin Garcia.

So, having 8-percent rider Alsonso Quinonez aboard Tell a Kelly shouldn’t be seen as a drawback. However, being a May foal is a drawback, as anybody can testify who watched even money debuter Just Imagine hang in the stretch of Saturday’s seventh race.

At odds of 7/2 to 19/1, I will wager $200 on both #3 Intentional and #5 Tell a Kelly. If both International and Tell a Kelly fall between 8/1 and 19/1, then I also want $300 to win on #9 Pacific Pride at 7/2 to 9/1. If Pacific Pride’s post time odds are less than 7/2, then I will pull back the $300 and instead bet $200 to win on #4 Romanette at odds of 5/2 to 4/1 only.

Also, if either or both International and Tell a Kelly are 10/1 to 19/1 then I will key them for second in $25 exactas 6,7,9 with 3,5 and for third in $5 trifectas 6,7,9 with 4,6,7,9,3,5 with 3,5.

Lastly, I will put $100 to win on #2 Marishka Moon at 10/1 to 19/1 only.

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 2 yo’s, 5-1/2 furlongs

Possible overlays                Morning line

#1 Red Sharp Humor                  8/1
#4 Rock So Hard                       5/1
#6 The Phenom                        9/2
#7 Prayer for Relief                   6/1
#8 Purgestein                          12/1
#9 Just Imagine                        7/2

Eight out of 10 of these horses are making their first lifetime starts. I plan to take good prices then let the chips fall where they may.

Most of this debuters have some good things to like, but almost all of them have drawbacks. Bob Baffert starts two colts in the race. Baffert has an outstanding record when using Martin Garcia on a horse making its first start, but #4 Rock So Hard is a May foal, while #7 Prayer for Relief — ridden by Martin Pedroza — was born in February.

Breaking from the rail, #1 Red Sharp Humor looks solid for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and he employs jockey Tyler Baze, who usually gets his maidens to the front early. Trainer John Sadler sends out #6 The Phenom, who has been fast in the morning. Sadler has done well with young Florida breds, but The Phenom is also May foal.

Finally, #8 Purgestein needs to be considered at what will probably be double digit odds, while the top team of owner Paul Reddam, trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Joel Rosario might do it with #9 Just Imagine.

At 10/1 to 19/1, I will put $200 to win on #1 Red Sharp Humor and #8 Purgestein. Also, I want $300 to win on the higher odds of Florida breds #4 Rock So Hard and #6 The Phenom. Finally, if Baffert’s second horse, #7 Prayer for Relief, is 5/1 or higher, I’ll take $300 to win on him also.

Before I started this blog in June 2008, I spent about six months compiling statistics on all aspects of Southern California maiden sprint races. From June 2008 to April 2009, I posted picks here in nine of 11 months, earning  a profit in eight months. As of April 30, 2009, my total winnings were $21,685.

But, because I also work 40-50 hours a week at a Las Vegas race & sports book, it is difficult to find the time to both do the blog and keep up with the research necessary to keep my finger on the pulse of Southern California racing. The angles that worked 10 months ago may or may not be working today. And if they are working, the odds ranges I need might have drastically changed.

So, as 2009 has gone by, the info I compile has become more and more outdated. For example, the statistics I need to evaluate trainer angles are  missing the last four months. And that’s not too bad when compared to the year’s worth of data I need to enter for my pace model, which is crucial for 6-1/2 and 7-furlong races.

And because I’m using old information, my winning has turned to losing. In fact, from May 2009 until today, I posted losses in five of six months and am down a total of $7,225 for that period.

Really, right now there is no way I can catch up with the record keeping while continuing to do the blog and bet the horses. Also, I am now taking a mandatory three-hour class for work which includes three hours of homework a week. The class may not sound like much, but with running weekly errands, tracking stocks and bonds, sleeping and going to the gym, I had nowhere to fit it in.

In the future, it looks like I’ll need to select certain meets to play, such as Santa Anita, Del Mar and Oak Tree while using the other months to evaluate and compile information. 

So, I am going to stop on the blog for a few months until I am up to date on everything, which — if all goes well — should be sometime in early 2010.