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I Want Revenge scratched; Derby looks like 3-horse race
May 2, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers the Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby, 1-1/4 miles, 3-year-olds
Possible overlays Morning line
#1 West Side Bernie 30/1
#4 Advice 30/1
#5 Hold Me Back 15/1
#6 Friesan Fire 5/1
#12 General Quarters 20/1
#13 I Want Revenge SCR
#15 Dunkirk 4/1
#16 Pioneerof the Nile 4/1
What this year’s Kentucky Derby is missing is a few speed balls that will gun out of the gate and ensure a hot pace. Many of the prep races this year were run on synthetic tracks where horses run slower early and fast late, so those type of horses got the earnings necessary to enter the Derby.
I Want Revenge would have been helped by a slow pace, but he was scratched this morning due to an ankle injury. Quality Road, who won’t run because of a quarter crack, would have been an easy selection in this race and I believe that he’ll either win the Preakness Stakes or the Belmont. Running second to Quality Road in the Florida Derby, #15 Dunkirk made an eye-popping surge on the turn reminiscent of Monarchos move in the 2001 Florida Derby.
In my computer pace numbers, Dunkirk’s Florida Derby looks a lot like the best prep race run by Real Quiet before that colt won the roses in 1997. Another who looks good in the pace ratings is #6 Friesan Fire based on the race he ran in the March 14 Louisiana Derby.
Bob Baffert, who won this race with Silver Charm, Real Quiet and War Emblem, sends out Pioneerof the Nile with jockey Garrett Gomez aboard. Pioneerof the Nile has won four straight graded stakes on the West Coast, but bettors knock him because he’s never run on dirt and never cracked a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. But Santa Anita has an inner dirt training track and I’m sure Baffert knows that his colt will run well on dirt.
Pioneerof the Nile’s sire Empire Maker won the Belmont Stakes and probably was best in the 2003 Derby, but got a very wide trip the year Funny Cide won. Pioneer’s dam, Star of Goshen, was trained by Mike Puype who said she was the best horse he ever had — even better than Old Trieste.
The previous three horses — Friesan Fire, Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile — all figure to be bet below 6/1, but the following four longshots have a chance with a few breaks — and they could be any price: #1 West Side Bernie, #4 Advice, #5 Hold Me Back and #12 General Quarters.
These longshots all seem to be getting better at the right time and any one of them could improve or just may take to the wet track, which will probably be packed down so it drains better. At an average price of 20-to-1, betting a small amount on all four of these horses is just like wagering on one 4-to-1 shot.
Betting this race, I will put $250 on any of these horses at 4/1 or more #6 Friesan Fire, #15 Dunkirk and #16 Pioneerof the Nile. Also, at 20/1 or better I will put $40 on any of these #1 West Side Bernie, #4 Advice, #5 Hold Me Back and #12 General Quarters.
Hollywood cancels Thursday card due to horse shortage
April 29, 2009 — maidenkingHollywood Park officials could not fill fields for Thursday’s races, so they canceled the entire card. Racing was not canceled any other day and the first post time for today is 1 pm.
A Hollywood Park official said that they postponed the draw from Sunday until Tuesday for Thursday’s races, then had to cancel when not enough horses entered.
“It’s simple,” Eual Wyatt, Jr., vice president and general manager of Hollywood Park told the Los Angeles Times. “There is a shortage of horses. It may be the economy. Investing in horses is an expensive proposition.
“Is this a sign of things to come? That’s only a guess.”
This winter, races were canceled at Golden Gate Fields because of horse shortages, but never before at Hollywood, Wyatt said.
“We will discuss and see if there are some accommodations we can make,” Wyatt said. “We should have a strategy by early next week.”
Results, Hollywood Park Sunday Race 3 — no bets
April 28, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer John Sadler and jockey Joel Rosario teamed up on #9 I Swear
When trainer John Sadler names jockey Joel Rosario as his rider, bettors should take notice.
Coming into Sunday’s third race, Rosario had won with 30 of the last 137 horses that he rode for Sadler and horseplayers who bet them all got back $1.51 for every dollar they bet.
In this race, Sadler gave Rosario a leg up on #9 I Swear, a 5-to-2 shot who was running in her third lifetime start. She was slow to start and Rosario was content to lay eight lengths off the pace on the backstretch.
As #2 Parker’s Stormgirl and #6 Wild Heart battled for the lead on the turn, I Swear started her run and moved up four-wide entering the stretch. When the speed collapsed, it became a race between #5 Youknowwhatilike and I Swear — and I Swear prevailed by a length.
I was planning on betting #6 Wild Heart at 2/1 or more, but the Bob Baffert-trained filly was hammered down to 3/2, which was too low for a wager.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
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Results, Hollywood Park Sunday Race 1 — lost $200
April 28, 2009 — maidenking
After winning five races on Saturday, Rafael Bejarano took the opener on Sunday.
After running an amazing race to cross the wire first, #7 Seeuat Sticknstein was taken down by the stewards for causing interference in the stretch to #2 Gate to Wire.
The win continued a huge weekend for jockey Rafael Bejarano, who won five races Saturday and two more on Sunday.
Seeuat Sticknstein, who is trained by David La Croix, was trying to overcome a huge bias against him. In these 4-1/2 furlong races the turn comes up quickly, so horses in the inside four post positions have a tremendous advantage.
In fact, according to my records, only one first-time starter of 50 in the last two years won a 4-1/2 furlong race at Hollywood breaking from outside of post number 4. And that horse was even money.
In this race, Seeuat Sticknstein battled for the lead while three wide on the turn against #4 Catch My Tale and #5 Great Wheels. He shook off those two and led by a length over #3 Izzynfranstreasure, who was coming on the outside.
Rafael Bejarano tried to squeeze between #3 Izzynfranstreasure while Seeuatsticknstein was bearing out, so the seam closed quickly and Gate to Wire checked in midstretch. Gate to Wire regained his footing and came charging at Seeuat Sticknstein, but missed by a half a length.
I bet $200 on #1 Swiss Record at 2/1 and he was not a factor.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
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Quality Road still possible for Preakness and Belmont
April 27, 2009 — maidenkingFlorida Derby winner Quality Road remains a possibility for the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, but will not run in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby due to a sore cracked hoof.
The 3-year-old colt missed a scheduled 5-furlong workout today at Belmont Park because of the injury to his right front hoof.
“It’s not terribly bad, but it’s not right,” trainer Jimmy Jerkens told USA Today. “He’s really sensitive on the quarter.”
Hoof specialist Ian McKinlay, who is working on Quality Road’s foot, is optimistic that the colt may compete in Pimlico’s Preakness Stakes on May 16.
“If this thing calms right down,” McKinlay said, “he’ll be back on track.”
Derby Festival Great Balloon Race colors Louisville sky
April 27, 2009 — maidenking
After two days of being canceled because of high winds, the Derby Festival Great Balloon Race took to the air in Louisville on Sunday.
The University of Louisville balloon beat out 33 others by landing its craft closest to an “X” marked on the ground, according to the Louisville Courier-Journal.
Ky Derby decision on Quality Road hangs in the breeze
April 26, 2009 — maidenkingOn Saturday, Kentucky Derby hopeful Quality Road jogged the Belmont Park track and his slight quarter crack appeared stable. So it seemed, all systems were go for the big race next Saturday.
But after a mile and three-quarter Sunday gallop, the crack on his right front foot emitted a tinge of blood.
And that was enough to get trainer Jimmy Jerkens thinking about doing the unthinkable: scratching the Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth winner. It’s not that Quality Road didn’t look great on the track, but Jerkens said that the Derby is no place to send a horse who is at anything less than his best.
“He galloped the way he usually does,” Jerkens told Joe Drape of the New York Times. “I would have been more optimistic with no blood.”
So it all comes down to today.
Quality Road is scheduled to breeze five-eighths of a mile on the Belmont Park training track. If it goes well, then Quality Road will be in the Churchill Downs starting gate on Saturday, and Jerkens might be smelling roses a few minutes later.
But if the colt seems weakened at all by the crack, then the plane headed from New York City to Louisville on Tuesday will leave without him.
“He needs to work to our liking and come out perfect,” said the cautious Jerkens. “If he takes one bad step — forget it.”
Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 3 — 2 pm post time
April 26, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 3+up, f & m
Possible overlays Morning line
#6 Wild Heart 5/2
In her March 12 debut, #6 Wild Heart broke slowly, but made an impressive move at the leaders entering the turn. On that day, she was going against maiden special weight runners and jockey Jesus Rios put the brakes on as Wild Heart was within a half length of the leaders.
She quickly fell back and ended up losing the race by more than nine lengths. Today, she is facing a weaker bunch and should be able to run the 70 Beyer Speed Figure necessary to win this type of race.
You might wonder why trainer Bob Baffert is using jockey Rios if Wild Heart is really ready to win. I believe that if Wild Heart is right, she’ll get the lead and never look back, so Rios will have an easy trip.
Also, I think Baffert’s barn likes to bet and Rios will help the odds stay reasonable.
The most likely challengers to Wild Heart are second-timers #1 Crystal Empire R N and #5 Youknowwhatilike. Also, the John Sadler-trained #9 I Swear was bet below 7-to-2 both times she ran, so I am hoping bettors like her again in this race.
In the end, Hall of Famer Baffert will probably win another. Therefore, I will bet $300 on #6 Wild Heart at 2/1 or more.
Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — 5:05 pm post time
April 25, 2009 — maidenkingMaiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up
Possible overlays Morning line
#9 Raise the River 7/2
#12 Grazen 6/1
#13 Charlie and Chris 6/1
It seems to me that horses coming off layoffs don’t do well in races like this and neither do first time starters.That leaves me with one big stick out here: #9 Raise the River.
In his last race, Raise the River ran a 92 Beyer Speed Figure while missing by a nose. In seven races, his odds have never been higher than 5-to-2, so the 7-to-2 morning line looks a bit unrealistic even in a 13-horse field. I think bettors will see that big last race Beyer and knock him below 3/1. Bejarano, who has won on 15 of the last 46 Carla Gaines horse he has ridden, will not help the price either.
Mike Mitchell trains #12 Grazen and his second-time starters win at a 39 percent clip, although most of them are maiden claimers. Also, rider Garrett Gomez has won on 21 of the last 56 Mitchell horses he has ridden.
With any improvement and a good trip, #13 Charlie and Chris can get there. He ran an 83 Beyer Speed Figure on Feb. 26, which fits in well here as the median figure needed to win this type of race is an 86.
I will bet $200 to win on #9 Raise the River at 2/1 and up and $150 to win on #12 Grazen at 3/1 or higher. If Raise the River falls below 2/1 then I’ll bet $100 on #13 Charlie and Chris at 7/2 or higher.
Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 2 — 1 pm post time
April 24, 2009 — maidenkingMaiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, f
Possible overlays Morning line
#3 Ruffled Feathers 5/2
#5 Irridescent Red 3/1
#6 Gold Image 6/1
Of the nine horses in this race, three of them are first-time starters — and I don’t like any of them. That leaves six fillies and mares of which #3 Ruffled Feathers looks to have the best chance to win.
This Patrick Gallagher-trained filly drastically upgrades jockeys from Danny Sorenson to Garrett Gomez and is on the improve. On March 29, Ruffled Feathers lost ground when she walked out of the gate then swang ultra-wide into the turn. Because of the bad trip, I adjusted her 69 Beyer Speed Figure to a 74, which is in the range of what it takes to win a race of this class.
Irridescent Red, #5, ran against Ruffled Feathers last time and she finished second in that March 29 race. She set the pace and beat Ruffled Feathers by a half a length at the wire.
Coming off a 10-month layoff, #6 Gold Image has great connections. She’s owned by Harris Farms which gives all of their best horses to Carla Gaines. Over the years, Gaines has won with many second timers coming off long layoffs and her winning percentage with jockey Rafael Bejarano is outstanding.
I will bet $250 to win on #3 Ruffled Feathers at 5/2 or more, and $200 to win on #6 Gold Image between the odds of 3/1 and 5/1 only. If Ruffled Feather’s post time odds are 2/1 or less then I will instead bet $150 on #5 Irridescent Red.
Minor quarter crack unlikely to sideline Quality Road
April 24, 2009 — maidenkingAlthough Quality Road developed a new quarter crack, the hoof specialist working on the injury said he believes the colt will run in the Kentucky Derby on May 2.
Ian McKinlay told Fran Jurga’s Hoof Blog that the crack on his right front hoof is minor and Quality Road is in no pain. About a month ago, the Florida Derby winner also developed a quarter crack on his right hind foot, and McKinlay said the cracks are forming because Quality Road’s feet are disproportionately small when compared to the rest of his body.
“He’s a very, very big horse with a small foot,” McKinlay told Jurga.
Quality Road, who recovered from the first crack, has been training well and plans are for the horse to jog on Saturday, gallop on Sunday and breeze on Monday. If he’s sound on Tuesday, then Quality Road will ship to Churchill Downs, said trainer Jimmy Jerkens.
“Right now, he’s absolutely sound,” Jerkens said.
Partying Paris jets off to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby
April 24, 2009 — maidenking
Paris Hilton, left, and Kim Kardashian will both be hosting Ky Derby parties
The party never really starts until Paris Hilton arrives.
And with the Kentucky Derby just eight days away, it’s no surprise she’ll be in Louisville living it up with other famous people who have nothing to do with horse racing.
Hilton will be going to the Barnstable-Brown Derby Eve Gala, which is known as one of the top 10 parties in the world, according to the Louisville Courier-Journal’s website. The celebrity packed function is held every year at the Louisville home of Patricia Barnstable-Brown, and the 21st annual gala held on May 1 raises money to benefit diabetes research.
Afterward, Hilton and her boyfriend Doug Reinhardt will host the official Barnstable-Brown after-party at The Sports and Social Club in Louisville.
“With Paris and Doug adding to this year’s celebrity lineup, this party’s sure to be talked about for years to come. Paris Hilton will definitely be one of the hottest fillies in Kentucky,” said Barnstable-Brown in a news release.
Gomez to ride Pioneerof the Nile in Ky Derby
April 19, 2009 — maidenkingAt 9 am today, jockey Garrett Gomez announced on TVG that he will ride Pioneerof the Nile in the May 2 Kentucky Derby.
Gomez rode Pioneerof the Nile to four straight graded stakes victories and was also the regular rider for Florida Derby runner up Dunkirk.
Sunday, Santa Anita Race 10 — 5:08 pm post time
April 19, 2009 — maidenkingMaiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up f & m
Possible overlays Morning line
#3 Chic Chick 3/1
#7 Hannah’s Moment 5/1
Darrell Vienna brings #3 Chic Chick back from a nine-month layoff and takes over the training from Lisa Lewis. Chic Chick showed enough ability when racing against maiden special weights last year to win a race in this class.
The speed of the race looks like #7 Hannah’s Moment who will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano. This mare had the lead at the half mile pole against $40,000 maiden claimers in two if her last four races.
But when she last ran on March 21 against this class, she never made the lead while running her poorest lifetime Beyer Speed Figure in six tries. However, she still finished second that day as the post time favorite.
I will bet $500 to win on #3 Chic Chick at 2/1 to 7/2, but just $200 at 4/1 or higher. Also, I will take $200 to win on #7 Hannah’s Moment at 3/1 or higher.
Note: This race closes the Santa Anita winter meet. Hollywood Park opens Wednesday.
Saturday, Santa Anita Race 10 — 5:08 pm post time
April 18, 2009 — maidenkingMaiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden claiming $32,000, 7 furlongs, 3-year-olds
Possible overlays Morning line
#3 Self Defense 7/2
#5 Victory Knock 2/1
On March 29, #5 Victory Knock made his debut at 5/2 in a field of five going 6 furlongs. Jockey Alex Solis did not ask this horse for speed from the gate, so he ended up in the middle of the pack on the backstretch. On the turn to the top of the lane, Solis pushed Victory Knock, but the jockey didn’t seem to be giving him a vigorous ride in deep stretch.
It seems that Victory Knock had a practice race, however he still ran a 68 Beyer Speed Figure. Today, he should run better with the racing experience and the added distance.
In his second lifetime start on April 9, #3 Self Defense also sat in the middle of the field, as jockey Aaron Gryder was not urging him much early. However, Self Defense rallied strongly in the stretch when Gryder pushed him along and went to the whip.
I believe that #5 Victory Knock has a 50 percent chance to win this race, so I will bet $400 to win on him at 7/5 to 9/5, $450 on him at 2/1 to 5/2. But only $200 at 3/1 or better.
Also, I will bet a $50 straight exacta using #3 Self Defense over #5 Victory Knock.
Gomez leaning toward Dunkirk, it seems, for Derby mount
April 17, 2009 — maidenking
Will Garrett Gomez ride Pioneerof the Nile for Baffert in the Ky Derby?
Dunkirk or Pioneerof the Nile?
Hmm.
Pioneerof the Nile or Dunkirk?
Those are the thoughts that will be going through jockey Garrett Gomez’ head this weekend as he decides which horse to ride in the May 2 Kentucky Derby.
Gomez said on his NTRA blog Thursday that the decision is a tough one because he has good relationships with both trainers — Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert — and both owners. But on Sunday, he will pick either Dunkirk or Pioneerof the Nile.
And after reading the complete NTRA blog entry, Gomez seems to be leaning toward Dunkirk.
Gomez’ blog delves into the pros and cons of each horse. In the Florida Derby, Gomez was impressed by the strong move Dunkirk made on Quality Road. He also noted that Dunkirk galloped out ahead of Quality Road after the wire.
“I don’t think a mile and a quarter will be a problem with him at all,” Gomez wrote.
He describes Pioneerof the Nile as more of a head case, who doesn’t run hard when he makes the lead.
“He hasn’t really done anything wrong when I’ve ridden him in the afternoons, but in a couple of races on him I’ve been a little uncomfortable because the simple fact is, I know there’s more to him,” Gomez wrote. “When he makes the lead, he has pulled up a little bit in a few of his races, and it feels like you’ve got a target on your back and somebody’s gonna come and nail you.”
Baffert to pitch Gomez camp Friday to ride ‘Pioneer’
April 15, 2009 — maidenking
Bob Baffert will try to secure services of Garrett Gomez on Friday
Over the years, Bob Baffert has trained horses for some of the richest, most successful owners in the business.
When it comes to training their stock, these owners don’t just pick names out of a hat. Many of them got rich by operating large companies and by seeking out and hiring the very best people.
I’m sure over the years, Baffert has learned to use his confident, yet reasonable demeanor to persuade owners that he is a better choice to run their stables than, say, Bobby Frankel, Richard Mandella or John Sadler.
And it’s those very sales skills that Baffert needs to draw on Friday in Lexington when he tries to convince Garrett Gomez’ camp to choose to ride Pioneerof the Nile over Dunkirk in the Kentucky Derby. On Monday, Gomez’ agent Ron Anderson and Baffert exchanged several telephone calls and finally agreed to meet in Lexington Friday to discuss whether Gomez will ride Pioneerof the Nile or not, according to the Daily Racing Form.
Baffert was going to Kentucky anyway to saddle Mythical Power in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. Over the years, Baffert and Anderson have done lots of business together, as Anderson’s former client Gary Stevens rode Silver Charm and many other Baffert notables.
But the Gomez-Anderson team also has a great relationship with Dunkirk’s trainer Todd Pletcher, who they have ridden many stakes winners for, too. Furthermore, Dunkirk ran a 108 Beyer Speed Figure in the Florida Derby on a dirt track, while Pioneerof the Nile has never cracked 100 in eight tries — all on either synthetic surfaces or grass.
There’s a lot at stake on this decision for Baffert because Gomez knows Pioneerof the Nile, having ridden him to four straight graded stakes victories. Baffert likes veteran jockeys on his best horses and right now nobody is better than Gomez, who won the Eclipse Award as the nation’s top jockey for the last two years.
Everyone knows that it’s late in the game, so many of the leading riders are committed to Derby horses. If Anderson and Gomez snub Baffert and choose Dunkirk, then who will Baffert turn to?
John Velasquez is riding Quality Road, Rafael Bejarano is on Papa Clem and Joel Rosario will be aboard Chocolate Candy. Maybe Edgar Prado will be the choice, as his mount Imperial Council will not run in the Derby. Or Baffert may pick David Flores, who he’s had luck with in the past.
Baffert will probably try to sell Anderson on his great record in the 3-year-old Classic races over the last decade or so. And it’s true, Baffert’s been the best: Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Congaree, Point Given and War Emblem, for the most part, all ran their eyeballs out in the Triple Crown series.
The Gomez camp will have to make their decision based not only on the Derby, but the Preakness and Belmont as well. Anderson and Gomez will look silly if they chose wrong and watch either Dunkirk or Pioneerof the Nile win while they’re riding the other horse.
Baffert, a finalist for racing’s Hall of Fame, is no doubt a great trainer.
But on Friday he also needs to be a great pitchman.
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Maiden King 