Gomez leaning toward Dunkirk, it seems, for Derby mount

April 17, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Bob Baffert won Sunday's seventh with #9 Irish Gypsy, owned by Mike Pegram. (Flickr photo by Yausser)

Will Garrett Gomez ride Pioneerof the Nile for Baffert in the Ky Derby?

Dunkirk or Pioneerof the Nile?

Hmm.

Pioneerof the Nile or Dunkirk?

Those are the thoughts that will be going through jockey Garrett Gomez’ head this weekend as he decides which horse to ride in the May 2 Kentucky Derby.

Gomez said on his NTRA blog Thursday that the decision is a tough one because he has good relationships with both trainers — Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert — and both owners. But on Sunday, he will pick either Dunkirk or Pioneerof the Nile.

And after reading the complete NTRA blog entry, Gomez seems to be leaning toward Dunkirk.

Gomez’ blog delves into the pros and cons of each horse. In the Florida Derby, Gomez was impressed by the strong move Dunkirk made on Quality Road. He also noted that Dunkirk galloped out ahead of Quality Road after the wire.

“I don’t think a mile and a quarter will be a problem with him at all,” Gomez wrote.

He describes Pioneerof the Nile as more of a head case, who doesn’t run hard when he makes the lead.

“He hasn’t really done anything wrong when I’ve ridden him in the afternoons, but in a couple of races on him I’ve been a little uncomfortable because the simple fact is, I know there’s more to him,” Gomez wrote. “When he makes the lead, he has pulled up a little bit in a few of his races, and it feels like you’ve got a target on your back and somebody’s gonna come and nail you.”

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Saturday, Santa Anita Race 5 — 2:05 pm post time

April 4, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#3 Canonize                               8/1
#6 Company Tiger                      10/1
#7 Ducane                                 12/1
#8 Vanquest                              3/1
#11 Hidden Blessing                    5/1

Of the 11 colts and geldings running in this race, seven of them are making their first lifetime start.

Many of the first timers have been working out well, but the best potential bets are #3 Canonize, #6 Company Tiger and #11 Hidden Blessing. Both Canonize and Company Tiger are owned by connections that have good records with first-out winners. Jockey Garrett Gomez rides Hidden Blessing and he often finds himself on winning debuters at this class level.  

Of the experienced runners, #8 Vanquest’s second-place finish in his last race was a few points better than the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class. Vanquest ran behind Supreme Summit, who came back to win an  allowance race.

Coming off a seven-month layoff, the Todd Pletcher-trained #7 Ducane is showing a couple of good workouts. The 12-to-1 morning line seems very high to me considering Pletcher has a large following.

At the betting window, I will take $250 to win on #3 Canonize at 7/2 to 19/1; $200 on #11 Hidden Blessing at 7/2 or better and $150 on #6 Company Tiger at 7/2 to 19/1.

If either Canonize or Hidden Blessing fall out of the betting zone, then I will substitute for that horse only a $200 wager on #8 Vanquest at 2/1 or more.

Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 8 — 4:07 pm post time

February 21, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#1 Gold Schleiger                           9/2
#4 Zensational                              5/2
#6 Arcodoro                                  12/1
#7 Off the Wall                               8/1
#8 Party Hard                                 5/1
#10 Brian the Brave                       20/1

All 10 horses in this race are running for either the first or second time. 

I am going to guess that Garrett Gomez will be over bet on #4 Zensational. Why? Because it seems that Garrett Gomez is always over bet no matter who he rides.

Also, Zensational has a marquee name trainer, Bob Baffert, the horse has nothing but great workouts showing, it was bought for $700,000, and it was pounded to 2-to-1 the first time it ran.

Therefore, it will probably be 9-to-5 or less, and if so, then I can’t use it.

However, second timers #1 Gold Schleiger and #8 Party Hard look like they can get the job done, as they ran well in their debuts and have good workouts. First timers #6 Arcodoro, #7 Off the Wall and #10 Brian the Brave could also light up the tote board.

I will bet $200 on #1 Gold Schleiger and #8 Party Hard at 5/2 to 9/1. Additionally, I’ll put $200 on these three horses at 10/1 to 19/1 only: #6 Arcodoro, #7 Off the Wall, and #10 Brian the Brave.

If the public crushes the Todd Pletcher-trained #9 Iron Fortitude which allows #4 Zensational to be 5/2 or better, then I will play $200 on Zensational with the longer odds of #1 Gold Schleiger and #8 Party Hard that are still less than 10/1. However, the potential bets on the first timers will remain intact.

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