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Sunday, Santa Anita Race 9 — 4:38 pm post time
March 14, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds
Possible overlays Morning line
#11 Saccente 10/1
#13 Only Be Cause 2/1
Bob Baffert drops #13 Only Be Cause from $50,000 claiming to this horse’s lowest level in nine lifetime starts. On Feb. 14, Only Be Cause ran 7 furlongs and finished a game second to a well-meant first time starter named The Major.
In that race, Only Be Cause earned a 77 Beyer Speed Figure which is well in excess of the 68 winning median Beyer Speed Figure for this class.
Of the three first time starters, #11 Saccente looks like a play if the odds fall the right way.
I will bet $350 to win on #13 Only Be Cause only if he is 2/1 or better and I’ll take $150 on #11 Saccente at 10/1 to 19/1.
Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 3 — lost $250
March 14, 2009 — maidenking
Comeandcatchme, #11, paid a shocking $140 to win for trainer Art Sherman
This group of maiden claimers appeared to be weak, as none of them approached the winning 68 median Beyer Speed Figure for this class in their past performances.
Therefore, a case could be made for spreading deep and landing on a 65-to-1 shot like #11 Comeandcatchme. But the way I look at these races is that the people who hit this horse will probably play more than 100 bombs before they cash another at 65-to-1.
In other words, in the long run it doesn’t pay to play these huge prices.
Comeandcatchme, who was making his second lifetime start for trainer Art Sherman, took the lead out of the gate in her Feb. 5 debut then faded away with very little urging from jockey Brice Blanc. On Saturday, this filly stalked the pace behind #10 Champagneforchelle and drew away in the stretch.
I bet $150 on first-time starter #4 Serena’s Echo and $100 to win on #8 Jet Set Lass, but neither of them hit the board.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
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Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 1 — no bet
March 14, 2009 — maidenking
When #2 Atta’ Girl scratched, I could tell that I probably would not be betting on this race. And sure enough, my other possible overlay #8 Juicy Lucy went off at odds of 7-to-5, while I was waiting for 3-to-1.
The favorite here, #4 Golden Rocketship, was able to win while never being challenged because jockey Joel Rosario slowed her down on the lead. She strolled through fractions of 23.28 seconds for the first quarter mile and 47.15 seconds for the half mile then won easily.
Golden Rocketship, who is trained by John Salder, paid $4.60 and I ended up making no wager.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
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Saturday, Santa Anita Race 3 — 1:31 pm post time
March 13, 2009 — maidenkingMaiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo fillies
Possible overlays Morning line
#1 Lanie’s Way 4/1
#4 Serena’s Echo 15/1
#7 A Taco Short 3/1
#8 Jet Set Lass 12/1
#9 Play Reveille 9/2
The median Beyer Speed Figure for this race is a 68 and either this is going to be a weak race for the class or one of these runners is going to pop a lifetime best Beyer number.
The horse that has shown the quickest quarter mile burst is #8 Jet Set Lass and that’s important at 5-1/2 furlongs. Jet Set Lass is better than she shows in the Daily Racing Form where she hasn’t been less than 20-to-1 in her last four races.
In her last race on Feb 15, Jet Set Lass appeared to want to make a run in the stretch, but was stuck behind a wall of horses. When she finally got going, the race was nearly over.
Breaking from the rail, #1 Lanie’s Way ran well on Feb. 22, which was her first race back in six months. Also, #7 A Taco Short has been training well and she gained good ground in the stretch of her Feb. 5 debut. In that race, A Taco Short earned a 62, which is the best overall Beyer Speed Figure of these fillies.
Of the three first timers running, #4 Serena’s Echo is a good gamble at the right price.
Finally, #9 Play Reveille is owned by Harris Farms, Inc. whose maidens usually win early and are often heavily bet when they’re live. This Northern California farm has its own Thoroughbred trainer and race track which allows their runners to come to Southern California ready to go.
I will bet $150 to win on #8 Jet Set Lass at 5/1 to 14/1 but just $100 at 15/1 or more. Also, I’ll take $200 to win on #1 Lanie’s Way at 2/1 to 7/2 only, and $200 on #7 A Taco Short at 3/1 and up. If the Harris Farm money shows up knocking #9 Play Reveille to 2/1 to 7/2, then I will take $200 on her while canceling the bets on Lanie’s Way and A Taco Short.
Finally, I’ll wager $150 to win on first timer #4 Serena’s Echo at 10/1 to 19/1 only.
Saturday, Santa Anita Race 1 — 12:30 pm post time
March 13, 2009 — maidenkingMaiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden claiming, $40,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds
Possible overlays Morning line
#2 Atta’ Girl 7/2
#8 Juicy Lucy 3/1
I’m hoping that #4 Golden Rocketship, the 8-to-5 morning line favorite, takes lots of money. This filly has good speed, but that quality is more valuable in races that are shorter than 6-1/2 furlongs.
Alex Solis looks live on #2 Atta’ Girl, who was four paths wide on the turn Feb. 28 then was caught in tight quarters in the stretch. She can run better than the 67 Beyer Speed Figure she earned, but she would not need to improve to take this.
Breaking from the outside, #8 Juicy Lucy was pinned on the inside in the stretch in the same race Atta’ Girl comes out of and she might run better with clear sailing.
I will bet $300 on #2 Atta’ Girl at 5/2 or more and $300 on #8 Juicy Lucy at 3/1 or better.
Early KY Derby forecast: Toss The Pamplemousse and favor Pioneerof the Nile, Quality Road and Imperial Council
March 13, 2009 — maidenking
Of the 23 colts listed in this year’s second pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby future book pool, the two most likely to win at Churchill Downs on May 2 are Quality Road and Pioneerof the Nile.
Quality Road’s 4-1/4 length win in Gulfstream Park’s Fountain of Youth on Feb. 28 earned him a 113 Beyer Speed Figure, which ties for the highest Beyer with I Want Revenge’s Gotham Stakes performance. Both of these horses sat within a length of the leader then drew off in the stretch, leading some handicappers to believe they ran the same type of race.
But I don’t agree.
Quality Road stalked the pace in the one mile Fountain of Youth Stakes that was run in a quick 45-2/5 seconds for the half mile and 1:09-2/5 seconds for 6 furlongs. In the March 7 Gotham Stakes, I Want Revenge crawled in comparison.
The 1-1/16th mile Gotham fractions were 48-2/5 seconds for the half and 1:12-3/5 seconds for 6 furlongs. According to my pace numbers, which take track variant into consideration, Quality Road ran 10 lengths faster early than I Want Revenge.
Yes, the Fountain of Youth was run at one turn, while the Gotham Stakes was two turns, but that shouldn’t account for a 10-length pace difference.
Of course, I Want Revenge finished faster than Quality Road, but he had an almost ideal scenario of an extremely slow early pace with no traffic to fight through. So, since I Want Revenge didn’t exert himself early, he had plenty of punch left for the stretch.
I Want Revenge, who is trained by Jeff Mullins, is obviously talented, but I can virtually guarantee you that this horse won’t experience such a soft pace again until The Belmont Stakes in June. Quality Road was much more impressive, but trainer James Jerkens needs to continue working to harness this contender’s brilliant speed or else he’ll die in the Churchill Downs stretch.
Pioneerof the Nile, trained by Bob Baffert, has never cracked 100 on the Beyer scale, but his stretch kick in the Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 7 stamped him as a strong Derby contender. He’s scheduled to run against a small field in the 1-1/16th mile San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday.
The only knock on Pioneerof the Nile is that he also went slow early in the Lewis Stakes, but he is not a front runner. Rather, this colt sat far off the pace and overcame a troubled trip.
Kentucky Derby pari-mutuel betting is open through Sunday afternoon when the pools close and odds are locked in. This is the second of three Derby pools and Churchill Downs is also offering both Derby exacta betting and Kentucky Oaks wagering this weekend.
One of this year’s overly-hyped colts who does not look like a strong Derby horse to me is The Pamplemousse. This Julio Canani trainee won 1-1/8 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 28, but was loose on the lead and went six lengths slower than Quality Road through the first six furlongs. The Pamplemousse, who earned a 103 Beyer Speed Figure, set an OK pace considering the Sham is two turns, but his finishing time showed that he is not yet Derby material. This horse will need to run much better next time to get my money on Derby Day.
Lastly, Imperial Council moved from eighth place to second in the Gotham Stakes, but didn’t gain any ground on I Want Revenge. However, trainer Shug McGaughey has this colt going in the right direction and his Gotham effort shows that Imperial Council has the ability to run well at the Triple Crown distances.
It is true that any of these colts could get injured at any time and be pulled from the Derby. So getting decent odds to cover the risk is essential.
Anything over 10-to-1 on #17 Pioneerof the Nile seems fair. While I would need 15/1 on both #13 Imperial Council and #18 Quality Road for a bet.
As for The Pamplemousse, throw him out until he shows that he can win while leading on a fast pace that is combined with a strong finishing kick.
Sutherland to leave Santa Anita for Woodbine in April
March 10, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Chantal Sutherland plans to ride full-time at Woodbine starting in April
Canadian native and Internet phenom Chantal Sutherland will leave Santa Anita to begin riding at Woodbine in Toronto when it opens April 4.
After Woodbine’s opening weekend, Sutherland will come back to Santa Anita and stay until the meet ends on April 19. Afterward, she will remain at Woodbine for the racing season, Sutherland told the the Daily Racing Form’s Steve Anderson.
However, Sutherland, 33, is thinking about riding full time in Southern California in the future.
“Eventually, I’d like to stay here,” she said. “I’d like to get a Derby horse or a Breeders’ Cup horse.”
Sutherland is one of the riders featured in the “Jockeys” reality show on the Animal Planet network. The show has increased Sutherland’s popularity and on Maiden King she is by far the most searched name.
Sutherland, who grew up in Toronto, won her first race at Woodbine on Oct. 9, 2000. In 2001 and 2002, Sutherland was voted the Sovereign Award as Canada’s top apprentice jockey. She was eligible to win the award for two years because time did not elapse on her 12-month apprenticeship when Woodbine was closed for the winter.
In 2002, Sutherland became one of Canada’s highest paid female athletes when her horses earned $5.7 million for their owners, according to Wikipedia. She rode in Canada until 2005 when she headed south to Florida and New York where Angel Cordero, Jr., Shane Sellers and Edgar Prado helped hone her skills.
Last year, she was ranked third in the Woodbine jockey standings before starting to ride at Santa Anita’s Oak Tree meet in the fall. Through Thursday, Sutherland was 10th in the Santa Anita jockey standings with 15 wins on 112 mounts for a winning percentage of 13.
Sutherland told the DRF the reason she’s going home is because she makes good money at Woodbine and has connections with several of leading owners and trainers.
“I have an opportunity to go back to Canada and the purses are so good,” she said.
Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 9 — won $1,260
March 9, 2009 — maidenking
Of the three lightly-raced horses coming from recent long layoffs — #4 Queen Mariles, #7 Crooked Smile and #11 Ampys Lil Girl — I liked Queen Mariles the best because she had the quickest early speed.
But I wasn’t going to bet if the odds were too low or if she was too cold on the board. So I waited, waited and waited as her odds held slightly above my 2/1 to 7/2 range for much of the betting period. Then finally, with a minute or two to post, late money poured in and it was likely that the odds on Queen Mariles would stick below 4-to-1.
Meanwhile, #7 Crooked Smile was hammered from 9-to-2 on the morning line to 7-to-5 early. She drifted up to 2-to-1 then 5-to-2 and finally went off at 3-to-1. So, two of my horses were in the odds zone, but speed was the deciding factor to sway me to Queen Mariles at 7-to-2.
When the bell finally rang, Crooked Smile popped from the gate, but Queen Mariles willingly established herself as the clear leader on the backstretch. Jockey Mike Smith took a comfortable lead into the lane and nobody got within a length of this filly the rest of the way.
I bet $350 to win on Queen Mariles and got back $1,610.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
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Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 7 — lost $550
March 9, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Carla Gaines teamed with jockey Rafael Bejarano to win with a first timer
While watching the tote board during the betting of this race, I was curious about why the odds on #5 Irridescent Red were so high. I commented to someone that #6 Humane was 6-to-1 and she had run a 59 Beyer Speed Figure in her only race, while Irridescent Red was nearly 20-to-1 and she probably had better early speed and ran a 67 Beyer in her debut.
If Irridescent Red looked that bad then somebody should have told the horse, because this 19-to-1 shot had winning on her mind. Jockey Aaron Gryder made a clear easy lead with her on the backstretch, then turning for home, race caller Trevor Denman said encouragingly “Irridescent Red goes on, leads it by three.”
But then first-time starter Excessive Blend, at 9-to-2, started gobbling up ground with huge strides and by midstretch it was clear that nobody was going to beat her. Irridescent Red, however, held onto second.
Carla Gaines, who trains Excessive Blend, worked this filly out slowly, but the horse did go a quick 4 furlongs in 48 seconds on March 3. In my opinion — after looking at the breeding, the connections and the workouts in the DRF — Excessive Blend’s odds were much too low for a wager.
I bet $150 on Irridescent Red at 19/1, $250 on #7 Asanti who finished third and $150 on #11 Past Curfew at 8/1.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
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Sunday, Santa Anita Race 9 — 4:38 pm post time
March 8, 2009 — maidenkingMaiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden Claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up
Possible overlays Morning line
#4 Queen Mariles 9/2
#7 Crooked Smile 9/2
#11 Ampys Lil Girl 4/1
Three horses in this race are all lightly raced, dropping in class and are coming off recent long layoffs:they are #4 Queen Mariles, #7 Crooked Smile and #11 Ampys Lil Girl.
Crooked Smile, a 5 yo, has the best Beyer Speed Figure in the group while both #4 Queen Mariles and Ampys Lil Girl appear to have the best early gas from the gate. As usual, the deciding factor for me will be post time odds.
I will bet $350 if any of the three horses mentioned above are 2/1 to 7/2 only. If more than one of them fall into the zone, then I will still only bet one, and my order of preference is #4 Queen Mariles, #11 Ampys Lil Girl and #7 Crooked Smile.
Sunday, Santa Anita Race 7 — 3:36 pm post time
March 8, 2009 — maidenkingMaiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, Cal-Bred fillies
Possible overlays Morning line
#5 Irridescent Red 8/1
#6 Humane 12/1
#7 Asanti 6/1
#11 Past Curfew 8/1
Of these 11 fillies, four are first-time starters and six are second timers.
I think I’ll have a better shot with the second timers in here than the debuters. On the rail, #1 Irish Pepper will likely be overbet with Garrett Gomez riding. However, #5 Irridescent Red showed good speed in her last and #7 Asanti ran a decent Beyer, is working out well and has the potential to be a strong bet.
Also, trainer Mike Puype, who saddles #11 Past Curfew, has been winning with second-time starters coming off layoffs during this meet. According to the DRF stats, Puype has six wins in 20 starts with this type of layoff, and is hitting at 24 percent with his second timers.
I will bet $150 on both #5 Irridescent Red at 3/1 and up and #7 Asanti at 9/2 to 15/1. But if Asanti is 2/1 to 4/1, then I’ll bump my bet to $250. Also, I will take $150 to win on #11 Past Curfew at 3/1 or higher.
Gio Ponti nails Ventura in Frank E. Kilroe Mile
March 8, 2009 — maidenkingAlthough I don’t wager on many non-maiden races, I do bet the big ones like the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont and the Breeders’ Cup.
A 13-horse field for the Santa Anita Handicap was too hard to resist, however my pick#5 Colonel John came down with a fever and was scratched. Therefore, I had no play.
Einstein tracked pace setter Matto Mondo to the stretch, wrestled the lead from him then held off #13 Champs Elysees to win by a length.
In the previous race, the Kilroe Mile, I was planning to bet #1 Ventura if she went off at her 2-to-1 morning line or better.
Ha!
The whole world loved this horse and she was pounded to 4-to-5. Ventura looked like the winner with 50 yards to go but #11 Gio Ponti got up in the last jump.
Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 4 — lost $150
March 8, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Jeff Mullins' SA maiden win was overshadowed by his Gotham victory
What a difference a race makes.
On opening day at Santa Anita, which was the first time #8 Unionize ran, he went off at 15-to-1 for trainer Clifford Sise. Sise had him ready to roll as Unionize earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure while unsuccessfully trying to chase down Point Encounter.
On Satuday, with Garrett Gomez up, Unionize’s odds were smashed to 1-to-2, and although much more money was bet on him this time, the results were exactly the same.
Unionize finished second once again.
This time Unionize was chasing #1 Leavenworth, a 4-to-1 shot who was showing a purchase price of $250,000 and was training well for Jeff Mullins. It was a big day for Mullins, who also won the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct Saturday with I Want Revenge.
Anyway, the only time it looked like any horse could possibly catch Leavenworth was at the top of the stretch. But then jockey Tyler Baze eased into another gear and drew off.
I bet $150 on #3 Temerity who was running in his second race back off a layoff, but never threatened.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
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Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 1 — lost $200
March 8, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Joel Rosario went wire-to-wire on #5 I am Madison's
Horses that have flashed a fast first quarter mile in a previous race are usually good bets in sprints shorter than 6-1/2 furlongs. The one exception I found is if they are lightly raced runners facing older maidens.
However in just his third lifetime start, #5 I am Madison’s bounded from the gate and was so game that jockey Joel Rosario had his feet on the dashboard down the backstretch, as he tried to ration this gelding’s energy. The Jack Carava trainee led the other 11 runners by two lengths on the turn then Rosario let his mount loose in the stretch.
None of the other runners mounted a challenge to this 7-to-2 shot until #8 Goodlookindude came charging with about 50 yards to go, but missed by a neck.
I was looking for 5/1 to 10/1 on six horses including #5 I am Madison’s, but only one of my contenders fit into the odds zone. So I ended up with $200 to win on #9 Smokin’ Stogies, who finished fifth.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
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Maiden King 