Maiden Claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 3-yo fillies
Possible overlays Morning line
#1 Tuaca Parfait 12/1
#4 She’s All Rev’d Up 3/1
#5 Kentucky Nectar 8/1
#6 Betterthanfiction 5/1
#7 Racing Rachel 12/1
#8 Brahmzee 8/1
#12 Jilona 4/1
#13 Stormy Runaway 20/1
Here’s a little known fact about this race: In the Daily Racing Form it shows that Martin Garcia and Bob Baffert are 0-for-2 as a tandem from 2008-09. So it looks like Baffert never uses Garcia. But in 2006-07, Garcia rode 12 first time starters for Baffert and won with five of them at prices ranging from 9/2 to 9/1.
Garcia rides #8 Brahmzee in her debut today for Baffert.
Looking at the replays, I saw plenty of horses with hidden talent and am hoping one of them will put it all together today at a decent price. On the rail, #1 Tuaca Parfait was four wide on the turn while breathing down the neck of the leaders in her Feb. 5 debut. On that day, she was bet to 5/1, however she loses jockey Tyler Baze today to contender #12 Jilona. Tuaca Parfait has the speed to get the lead and never look back.
On the far outside, #13 Stormy Runaway broke slowly in her last then made a huge middle move to get within a half length of the leaders. She’s been working out well and seems to be improving, but the post position could create a wide trip.
Jockey Chantal Sutherland had #6 Betterthanfiction under a bit of a hold while on the turn Jan. 16, but once Sutherland hit the gas this filly took off. Betterthanfiction is improving, as seen by her last four race Beyer progression of 22-47-57-60.
Probably the best horse in the race is #12 Jilona who has the early speed to keep up with maiden special weight runners. She has already run a 66 Beyer Speed Figure, which is the median winning Beyer for this level.
Also, it would be no surprise to see #4 She’s All Rev’d Up cross the wire first but she’s an obvious contender. And the fact that Doug O’Neill trains #5 Kentucky Nectar is enough reason to give that one a long look.
Finally, I’ll bet #7 Racing Rachel if the price is right.
At 8/1 or more, I will bet $150 to win on #1 Tuaca Parfait, and $100 to win on #13 Stormy Runaway. Also, I’ll put $100 on first timers #7 Racing Rachel from 10/1 to 19/1 and #8 Brahmzee from 3/1 to 9/1.
Finally, if Jilona goes off at 3/1 or better, I will take $100 to win on her and $20 exactas with #8 Jilona over #1 Tuaca Parfait, #6 Betterthanfiction, #7 Racing Rachel, #8 Brahmzee and #13 Stormy Runaway.
March 2, 2009 at 11:20 PM
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