Results, Sunday, Santa Anita Race 9 — lost $150

Trainer Mike Puype hit with $13.20 second-timer Rass Stone on Sunday

With the three lowest-priced horses in this 7-furlong sprint looking rather ordinary, this appeared to be a good spot to dig deeper for a good price. In my race preview, I planned to go against 5-to-2 favorite Sabe, 7-to-2 shot Hava Cigar and Officer Bavetta, who, at 5-to-1, had the best last race Beyer Speed Figure. Although these runners looked competitive, none of the three appeared likely to run the 68 median winning speed figure for this class level.

However, one of my four wagering prospects was #14 Rass Stone, who thoroughly dominated this field of 3-year-olds by going straight to the lead on the backstretch then never looking back. This gelding’s trainer, Mike Puype, does well with second-time starters and Rass Stone showed good early speed on Dec. 10, which was his only lifetime start. Early speed is nowhere near as valuable in longer sprints as it is in shorter ones, but in weak races it’s worth a shot at the right price.

My only problem with Rass Stone was that I needed odds of at least 6-to-1, and not more than 19-to-1, for a bet. He was 8-to-1 on the morning line, however the public knocked him to 5.60-to-1, which was just a shade under my minimum betting number.  After the race, I broke down Puype’s maiden claiming second time starters and found that the best odds range for this angle is between 3-to-1 and 7-to-1. In this medium-priced range, Puype won 6-of-16 times for a return of $2.25 for every $1 wagered. At all other odds, Puype’s horses were still profitable — mainly because of a 12-to-1 shot he struck with on March 11, 2011 — but his net winnings with this group of second timers were only about half as much as those in the medium-priced range.

So, in hindsight rather than wagering $100 at 6/1 to 19/1, the proper betting strategy would have been to put down $150 at 3/1 to 7/1, and just $50 at 8/1 or higher. Hey, I’ll get ’em next time.

The other three angle horses I was looking at — #4 Push Button Magic, #7 On a Burner and #12 Thunder of India — didn’t move a muscle and all finished toward the rear of the pack. Both Push Button Magic and Thunder of India were cold on the board, going off at greater than 20-to-1. So, I didn’t touch them.

But my $150 bet on On a Burner did kick in. This gelding was also a second-time starter and he showed a decent late move in his last. He was adding blinkers, but they obviously didn’t do the trick as he finished ninth at 12-to-1. His trainer Kristen Mulhall did have a nice day, incidentally, as she won two maiden races earlier in the card.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 A. P. Corsair (KY) Flores D Drysdale N 22.90 5
2 2 Officer Bavetta (CA) Blanc B Stein R 5.10 3
3 3 War Wizard (KY) Cedeno A Lucarelli F 35.50 7
4 4 Push Button Magic (KY) Quinonez A Ellis R 29.30 6
5 5 Buds Pal (KY) Krigger K Armstrong J 29.70 11
6 6 Sabe (FL) Espinoza V Machowsky M 2.80 8
7 7 On a Burner (KY) Delgadillo A Mulhall K 12.30 9
8 8 Tizpat (CA) Talamo J Fanning J 15.50 4
9 9 Adam N Ryan (CA) Vergara D Becerra R 18.20 13
10 10 Deal’ Em (CA) Atkinson P Collins D 52.40 14
11 11 Prometheus Bull (MD) Flores E Palma H 51.20 12
12 12 Thunder of India (KY) Pedroza M Carava J 41.20 10
13 13 Hava Cigar (MD) Rosario J O’Neill D 3.40 2
14 14 Rass Stone (KY) Sutherland C Puype M 5.60 1
 
Pgm Win Place Show
14 $13.20 $6.80 $4.60
13 $5.00 $3.40
2 $4.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$0.50 Pick 4 paid $411.25 (10-3-1-14)
$1.00 Exacta paid $23.10 (14-13)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $177.20 (3-1-14)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $8616.70 (9 OF 9)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $8755.30 (14-13-2-8-1)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $994.40 (14-13-2-8)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $128.90 (14-13-2)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $60.00 (1-14)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $567.40 (5-6-10-3-1-14)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $56721.80 (5-6-10-3-1-14)
Fractional Times
22.24, 44.89, 1:10.24, 1:24.28
 
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