Maiden Claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up
Possible overlays Morning line
#1 Sailboat Sam 10/1
#2 Pacific Halo 6/1
#3 Voodoo’s Run 9/2
#4 Unusual Justin 6/1
#6 Mr. Rancho Vista 10/1
#7 Mossad 5/1
#10 Kaffeinator 7/2
This race is a bit tricky because six out of nine of the horses running are coming off of recent layoffs of four months or more.
Jockey Garrett Gomez rides #10 Kaffeinator, who is coming directly off a three-month freshening. Kaffeinator topped the 77 median Beyer Speed Figure needed to win this race four straight times. On June 18, Kaffeinator ran an 80 Beyer, then a 78 on July 24, an 80 on Aug. 25, and 79 his last time out Oct. 3.
So, he’s been running well at higher claiming levels, but unfortunately a dominant horse showed up whenever he ran. Others here like #2 Pacific Halo, #3 Voodoo’s Run and #4 Unusual Justin ran Beyers in the low 70’s, but could easily improve to an 80.
Finally, #1 Sailboat Sam flashed good speed on Feb. 23, #6 Mr. Rancho Vista gets jockey Rafael Bejarano off a 15-month layoff and second-timer #7 Mossad drops down and shows lightning quick workouts for his comeback race.
One note about Mr. Rancho Vista is that his former trainer Patrick Gallagher doesn’t push his horses first or second time. So, today the horse is running off a long layoff in its third start with two dark running lines. The horse is now trained by Jerry Hollendorfer who may be hiding the horses ability with slow workouts. One clue that Mr. Rancho Vista might run well is that Bejarano is jumping off Voodoo’s Run.
In any event, I can see almost anything happening in this race, so I’ll make an odds line and play the tote board.
I will bet $200 on #10 Kaffeinator at 5/2 or better and $100 on both #7 Mossad at 6/1 or more and Mr. Rancho Vista at 7/1 or better.
But If Kaffeinator goes of at 2/1 or lower then I’ll put $150 on both #7 Mossad at 6/1 and Mr. Rancho Vista at 7/1; $100 on both #3 Voodoo’s Run and #4 Unusual Justin at 7/1 or better; and $100 on #1 Sailboat Sam and #2 Pacific Halo at 10/1 or more.
January 8, 2009 at 3:50 AM
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