Maiden claiming $25,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up
Possible overlays Morning line
#3 I Am Madison’s 12/1
#4 Elusive Chief 5/2
#5 Stray Cat 7/2
#8 Sky Ruler 15/1
#9 Golden Delight 12/1
#10 Degreko 12/1
#11 High and Mighty 8/1
#12 The Emerald King 9/2
This race comes up extremely competitive, so watching the tote board for the proper odds is essential.
The first thing worth noting, is that #12 The Emerald King is the only horse in this race to ever be within a length of the lead at the first or second call in a race less than 7 furlongs. And that is highly unusual in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden claiming race with 12 horses in the field.
However, four of the starters in here have only run one time, so they may show more speed today. Trainer Jack Carava claimed #3 I Am Madison’s out of his Jan. 9 debut at Golden Gate where the horse was 4-wide on the turn, but still gained on the leader. I Am Madison’s earned a 57 Beyer Speed Figure after tiring, and will almost certainly need at least a 71 to beat this competitive field.
Coming back from a six-month layoff, #11 High and Mighty is tied for the best last race Beyer with the 73 he ran against maiden special weights on Aug. 23. Besides the second timers, another that may have hidden ability is #10 Degreko, who is dropping into claiming off three turf races where he faced the best maidens on the grounds.
The morning-line favorite #4 Elusive Chief looks like he’ll be a good bet today. In his last race on Jan. 16, Elusive Chief went 4-wide on the turn and still ran a 73 Beyer. The problem is, he may need to go wide again.
I’ll bet $300 on #4 Elusive Chief if he’s 2/1 to 7/2 only and $200 on The #12 Emerald King at 3/1 or more.
Also, if any of these horses are between 5/2 and 9/1 then I’ll bet the following amounts on them: $250 on #11 High and Mighty, $200 on #3 I Am Madison’s, $150 on #8 Sky Ruler, and $100 on #9 Golden Delight.
February 21, 2009 at 1:18 AM
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