Maiden claiming $40,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds
Possible overlays Morning line
# 3 Panda 15/1
#4 De Brief Me 8/1
#6 One Vote 9/5
#8 Jimmy Two Times 5/1
The median Beyer Speed Figure for this type of race is 71 and two runners in here have recently earned a 70: #6 One Vote and #9 Belongs to Gotham.
I give One Vote the edge out of these two because this gelding appears to have better speed, but it’s probably a moot point because both will likely be bet below 2-to-1.
That leads us to first timer #8 Jimmy Two Times who has a few good workouts on display. I especially like the 59-1/5 second 5 furlongs he worked on Dec. 20, which was the sixth fastest of 104 horses who exercised at that distance.
The connections are also a positive for Jimmy Two Times, as both jockey Mike Smith and trainer Bill Spawr win at decent 16 percent rate. However, the last 24 times Smith rode for Spawr the percentage spiked to 29 percent, as they won seven races together.
Other first times who may be worth a wager if the price is right are #3 Panda, #4 De Brief Me and #5 You’re No Good.
I will bet $300 on #6 One Vote at 2/1 and up and $250 on #8 Jimmy Two Times at 7/2 to 19/1.
Also, I want $150 to win on any of these horses that fall between the odds of 10/1 to 19/1: #3 Panda, #4 De Brief Me and #5 You’re No Good.
February 21, 2009 at 12:36 AM
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