Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, 3 yo fillies
Possible overlays Morning line
#1 Belated Bid 8/1
#3 Mother Ruth 3/1
#4 Indomitable 10/1
#7 Beloved Deputy 12/1
#9 Irish Gypsy 4/1
#10 She’s Borracho 8/1
For trainers Carla Gaines, Ted West, Patrick Gallagher, Craig Dollase, Eric Guillot, Jeff Mullins and Marty Jones: I feel sorry for you, because you have no chance.
Bob Baffert has you surrounded.
Baffert has three independent betting entries in this race and they are all less than 10-to-1 on the morning line. Over the years, Baffert has excelled at winning maiden races when he’s started two horses. In this race, he has three bullets.
The first, #1 Belated Bid is the Baffert filly who is least likely to win. She doesn’t have many fast workouts and the owner doesn’t often win with his first timers. If Baffert wins, er I mean when Baffert wins, he’ll likely be getting his picture taken with either #3 Mother Ruth or #9 Irish Gypsy.
Mother Ruth, who is showing a purchase price of $425,000, has turned in a steady ledger of fast workouts for her debut. Garrett Gomez rides and he’s won on 12 of the last 25 Bob Baffert-trained horses that he’s ridden. No question, Mother Ruth looks good.
Maybe too good. Could Bob just be baiting us with Mother Ruth to get a price on #9 Irish Gypsy? After all, Irish Gypsy is owned by his friend Mike Pegram.
Irish Gypsy, who ran two lengths behind Stardom Bound on July 20, is coming off an eight-month layoff and has shown quick, early accelleration in past races, so she has a shot.
And if all Baffert’s plans are foiled and the unforeseen happens, I will be covering first timers #4 Indomitable, #7 Beloved Deputy and #10 She’s Borracho. But only if their prices are right.
At the betting window, the cynic in me wants to go with #9 Irish Gypsy, but instead I will play the percentages and put $350 to win on #3 Mother Ruth at 2/1 or higher. Also, I want $150 on these three horses — #4 Indomitable, #7 Beloved Deputy and #10 She’s Borracho — but only at 10/1 to 19/1.
If Mother Ruth is bet to less than 2/1, then I will put $200 to win on #9 Irish Gypsy instead.
March 23, 2009 at 10:40 PM
[…] When looking at this race for the site on Saturday night, I was tempted to bet Irish Gypsy, but put $350 on Mother Ruth because she just looked too good. But after thinking about this situation on Sunday, when race time came up, I split my bet with 60 percent going on Mother Ruth and 40 percent on Irish Gypsy. […]