Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo fillies
Possible overlays Morning line
#2 Sister Derek 15/1
#3 Latego Light 6/1
#11 Fine Time to Leave 3/1
#13 Lanie’s Way 4/1
The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 65, which bodes well for #3 Latego Light who ran a 64 Beyer when she last raced on Feb. 16.
In that February race, Latego Light was going a mile and she came running late with a spirited rally.
Mike Mitchell trains #11 Fine Time to Leave, who is probably much better than she looks. If almost anybody else trained this horse I would want nothing to do with it, but Mitchell won with 24 of his last 66 maiden claimers and anybody who bet them all would be ahead by 24 cents on the dollar. I have to respect that.
When Mitchell’s maiden claimers are live, I noticed, their odds are often bet below 3-to-1, so I will be watching the tote board.
Starting for her third time off of a six-month layoff, #13 Lanie’s Way could win if she improves by a few lengths or if none of the other contenders run their best. Another positive clue with Lanie’s Way would be strong wagering action. Also, first-time starter #2 Sister Derek is OK if the price is right.
If #11 Fine Time to Leave is 5/2 or less, then I will wager $400 to win on her; if she’s 3/1 or 7/2 then just $150; if 4/1 or more than I won’t bet her.
Also, I want $200 to win on #3 Latego Light at 5/2 to 9/1, but only $100 at 10/1 or more. Finally, I will take $150 to win on #2 Sister Derek at 10/1 to 19/1 only.
April 4, 2009 at 9:56 PM
[…] Saturday, Santa Anita Race 1 — noon post time […]