Thursday, Santa Anita Race 8 — 4:37 p.m. post time

January 22, 2009 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3-yo fillies

Possible overlays                        Morning line

#1 Ashee                                          5/1
#3 Play Reveille                                  8/1
#4 Cloud Strider                                 15/1
#6 Excessive Charm                            6/1
#7 Catifornya Dreamin                       8/1
#9 Bettyboomboom                             8/1
#10 Gifted Gina                                  8/1
#14 Flash Dance                                6/1

This race is wide open and I will spread out my bets because I expect the winner to pay a decent price.

First-time starters #3 Play Reveille, #4 Cloud Striker and #6 Excessive Charm would all be good bets if the price is right. I’d like second timers #7 Catifornya Dreamin and #10 Gifted Gina more if the public bets them into the 3-to-1 to 7-to-1 range. And both #9 Bettyboomboom and #14 Flash Dance have good early speed.

I will bet $300 on #6 Excessive Charm from 3/1 to 10/1 and $200 on both #3 Play Reveille and #4 Cloud Striker at 10/1 to 19/1.

Also, I want $150 on both #7 Catifornya Dreamin and #10 Gifted Gina at 3/1 to 7/1 and $200 on #14 Flash Dance at 5/1 and over.

Of course, I don’t expect to have money on all six of these horses, as I believe two or three won’t have the proper odds.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , . 1 Comment »

Thursday, Santa Anita Race 2 — 1:31 p.m. post time

January 21, 2009 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $75,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 year olds

Possible overlays                          Morning line

#2 Delahoosee                                     5/2
#3 Gretsky                                         8/1
#4 Dapper Gene                                   7/2
#7 Cat’s Causeway                               8/1

Hall of Famers Wayne Gretzky and Eddie Delahoussaye have horses named for them in this race — although both are spelled differently from their surnames.  

Former jockey Eddie D. is the breeder of #2 Delahoosee who attracts Garrett Gomez after leaving the gate slowly on Dec. 6 then making a nice mid-race move. Breaking next door is first-time starter Gretsky out of the sire Toccet, who is named for Rick Toccet a good friend of Gretzky’s from their playing days with the Los Angeles Kings. Gretsky is scheduled to be ridden by Joel Rosario, who must get on a lot of horses in the morning because he regularly lands on live debuters during the afternoon. 

Danny Velasquez trains #4 Dapper Gene, who is the only experienced horse in this race that didn’t get off slowly last time. This gelding fits the winning profile for this race and he wouldn’t have to improve much from his 72 Beyer Speed Figure to beat this group. Finally, the connections of #7 Cat’s Causeway routinely pop with good-priced first time starters.

I will bet $300 on #7 Cat’s Causeway at 8/1 to 19/1; $100 on #3 Gretsky at 7/2 to 19/1; and $300 on #2 Delahoosee at 2/1 and higher. 

If Delahoosee goes off at 9/5 or below then I will get off him and put $200 on #4 Dapper Gene at 3/1 or better.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Santa Anita Monday Race 9 — lost $600

January 20, 2009 — maidenking

Jockey Clinton Potts broke #8 Jazzin Razz alertly, which led to victory

Jockey Clinton Potts broke #8 Jazzin Razz alertly, which led to victory

In his debut race on Dec. 14, Jazzin Razz  dwelt at the start to spot the field 10 lengths, essentially losing all chance. But on Monday, trainer Richard Rosales equipped #8 Jazzin Razz with blinkers and jockey Clinton Potts encouraged the gelding to run early.

At 15-to-1, Jazzin Razz responded by breaking well and he ran with the leading group on the backstretch. Jazzin Razz took the lead in the stretch then won a tight photo finish over the fast-closing #5 You Wood.

Jazzin Razz’s trainer Rosales won just six of 78 races in 2008 and was 0-for-5 this year. But maiden long shot players know him well. Somebody posting as MagicHorseman on Pace Advantage.com said that Rosales trained two maiden claiming bombs that came in in 2007. The first was a $58.80 winner named Razi’s Star on Feb. 28, 2007, and the second was H.E.’s Girl, which paid $133.60 on Nov. 9, 2007.

I considered betting four horses in this race and ended up with three of them. I bet $200 on #5 You Wood, #9 Zephaniah and #12 Hurley’s Way. You Wood missed by a nose at 5-to-1 and #12 Hurley’s Way was only a head behind You Wood after going very wide on the turn.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Suspect (CA) Sutherland C Metz J 23.50 5
2 2 Bert’s too Kinky (CA) Blanc B McCarthy S 46.00 8
5 3 You Wood (KY) Bejarano R Cerin V 5.00 2
6 4 Rise Above (CA) Espinoza V Stute M 1.70 9
7 5 Mont La Salle (FL) Quinonez A Garcia V 40.00 4
8 6 Jazzin Razz (CA) Potts C Rosales R 15.40 1
9 7 Zephaniah (CA) Nakatani C Moger, Jr. E 4.90 7
11 8 Blue You’re My Boy (CA) Sorenson D Gutierrez J 21.10 6
12 9 Hurley’s Way (OH) Baze T Baffert B 2.40 3
SCR – Bartok’s Magic (CA)     – –
SCR – Renzo Sean (CA) Baze M Ellis R – –
SCR – Delmando (CA)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $32.80 $10.60 $6.60
5 – $7.20 $4.20
12 – – $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $108.30 (8-5)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $901.80 (1-6-8)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $8228.30 (4-1-6-8)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $3447.50 (8 OF 9)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $67192.70 (8-5-12-7-1)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $500.20 (8-5-12)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $208.60 (6-8)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $653603.00 (8-2-4-1-6-8)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $8442.20 (8-2-4-1-6-8)
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . 6 Comments »

Monday, Santa Anita Race 9 — 4:37 p.m. post time

January 19, 2009 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 7 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                      Morning line

#5 You Wood                                   6/1
#6 Rise Above                                  3/1
#9 Zephaniah                                   9/2
#12 Hurley’s Way                              7/2

The Ed Moger-trained #9 Zephaniah looks like he could get an easy lead, but will he be able to last?

Bob Baffert has been running #12 Hurley’s Way in maiden special weight routes and now cuts back to maiden claiming 7 furlongs. Hurley’s Way was third best of 41 while working out at 4 furlongs on Jan. 15 and should perform better facing weaker. Second-timer #5 You Wood was bet to 4-to-1 versus nine others in his debut and he looks like a solid gelding for trainer Vladimir Cerin.

And finally, you can’t ignore the 72 Beyer Speed Figure run by #6 Rise Above in a Jan. 4 route race. Trainer Mel Stute hit at only eight percent in 2008, but Stute looks like he’s got this one headed in the right direction.

At 2/1 or more, I’ll bet $300 on #6 Rise Above and $200 on #12 Hurley’s Way. 

But if either Rise Above or Hurley’s way are 9/5 or less, then I’ll replace which ever horse has unbettable odds with a $200 wager on #5 You Wood at 2/1 to 10/1 and $200 on Zemphaniah, #9, at 7/2 or more .

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . 1 Comment »

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 2:03 p.m. post time

January 18, 2009 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden special weight, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#2 Hudler                                          5/1
#5 High Note                                     2/1
#6 Dona Mary                                   5/1
#7 Runway Starlet                             3/1

Lots of inexperienced runners in this field of eight fillies.

Trainer Doug O’Neill starts both first timer #2 Hudler and #7 Runway Starlet, a filly who has run three credible races.

Hudler’s owner, J. Paul Reddam, likes to use jockey Cory Nakatani and Reddam has had a fair amount of success with debuters. 

Another first timer with a strong shot is #5 High Note, trained by Dan Hendricks, but her morning line is a dismal 2-to-1. Finally, #6 Dona Marie fits the profile of a second timer with the potential to improve enough to win this one.

I will bet $200 to win on #2 Hudler at 5/1 and up; $200 on High Note in the unlikely event she’s 10/1 to 19/1: $200 on #6 Dona Mary at 3/1 and higher; and $200 on #7 Runway Starlet at 7/2 or better.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . 1 Comment »

Thursday, Santa Anita Race 8 — 4:37 p.m. post time

January 15, 2009 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                           Morning line

#1 Rochelle’s Jimmy                          12/1
#2 Belongs to Gotham                        6/1
#4 Coleville                                      7/2
#6 Hasty Trend                                 5/2
#7 Cole’s Favorite                              5/1

Of the 10 horses running, six of them are making their second lifetime start. The most likely winner of the second timers is probably #6 Hasty Trend, who broke slowly in his last then made a nice run. During that race, which was run Dec. 28, jockey Pedro Arambula was sitting back in Hasty Trend’s saddle throughout the whole backstretch. Today, trainer Jeff Mullins is switching to Garrett Gomez, and Gomez won eight of the last 13 times he’s ridden for Mullins.

Jockey Michael Baze had a problem with #9 Cole’s Favorite in the stretch of his debut. Baze was sitting behind the pace setter and as he tried to rally up the rail another horse shot into the gap, forcing Baze to steady. Cole’s Favorite then lost his momentum. Today, trainer Rafael Becerra adds blinkers.

Also, if trainer Herbert Bacorn can teach #1 Rochelle’s Jimmy to ration his speed he can wire a field like this.

At odds of 2/1 or more, I will bet $200 on #6 Hasty Trend and I want $100 on #1 Rochelle’s Jimmy at 10/1 or more.

Also, if Hasty Trend goes off at 9/5 or less,  then instead of him I want $150 to win at 3/1 to 8/1 on #2 Belongs to Gotham, #4 Coleville and #9 Cole’s Favorite.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , . 1 Comment »

Results, Santa Anita Wednesday Race 1 — lost $350

January 15, 2009 — maidenking

Uncle Jeep with jockey Garrett Gomez won without difficulty after being bet to 4-to-5

Uncle Jeep with jockey Garrett Gomez won without difficulty after being bet to 4-to-5

He failed as the favorite at this class level three straight times, but on Wednesday jockey Garrett Gomez got #4 Uncle Jeep to finally break his maiden.

Trained by Mike Mitchell, this horse was no secret, as he closed at 4-to-5 to pay just $3.80.

The race began with #1 Eddie the Hat zooming to a clear lead down the backstretch with Uncle Jeep stalking him just a length or two behind. At the top of the stretch Uncle Jeep challenged the leader who tried to go with him. But Eddie the Hat couldn’t match strides and weakened.

It was Gomez’ first chance riding Uncle Jeep and his win continues the great recent success he and Mitchell have had together, winning 13 out of 36 races before this.

I was watching the tote board on a couple of second timers and ended up betting $200 on #6 Hammurabi at 9-to-2. Also, I put $150 on 18-to-1 shot #2 Cracked Code, who was making his debut. 

To watch a replay of this race go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Eddie the Hat (KY) Nakatani C Stute G 1.70 2
2 2 Cracked Code (FL) Talamo J Mollica M 18.90 3
3 3 Khurt Harry (CA) Espinoza V Abrams B 28.90 6
4 4 Uncle Jeep (IL) Gomez G Mitchell M 0.80 1
5 5 Pemba At U. T. K. (CA) Fong, Jr. F Ho H 41.40 4
6 6 Hammurabi (FL) Enriquez I Matlow R 4.60 5
 
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $3.60 $2.20 $2.10
1 – $2.80 $2.80
2 – – $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $4.50 (4-1)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $15.90 (4-1-2)
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Wednesday, Santa Anita Race 1 — 1 p.m. post time

January 14, 2009 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $50,000, 6 furlongs, 3 year olds

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#1 Eddie the Hat                               3/1
#2 Cracked Code                              10/1
#6 Hammurabi                                  4/1

The obvious horse in here is #4 Uncle Jeep, but the odds on this one are almost certain to be minuscule. Uncle Jeep was the beaten favorite in his last three races, he is ridden by money magnet Garrett Gomez and Mike Mitchell is by far the most accomplished and recognized trainer of the six in here.

Uncle Jeep’s morning line is 4-to-5 and even if he goes off at even money, he would only be a good bet if you thought Uncle Jeep had 65-to-70 percent chance of victory. That’s a difficult argument to make, considering this horse so far has lost five sprint races at this class level.

His previous jockey Victor Espinoza jumps to #3 Khurt Harry, and I don’t like him either because he raced greenly in his initial race on Dec 27. On that day, Khurt Harry broke slowly, remained in last on the turn and zig-zagged through the stretch while never showing anything.

However, second-timers #1 Eddie the Hat and #6 Hammurabi both ran OK in their debuts, posting Beyer Speed Figures of greater than 50. Richard Matlow, the trainer of Hammurabi, has been winning at 30 percent second time out for two years now, while Eddie the Hat flashed speed in a turf sprint and has four good workouts on his ledger.

Finally, debuter #2 Cracked Code has a shot, as the owners De Renzo & Hartly won with their only first timer. That horse was trained by Jeff Mullins and it paid $10.40 on Aug. 8.

I will bet $200 on both #1 Eddie the Hat and #6 Hammurabi at odds of 5/2 or more. Also, at 6/1 to 19/1, I’ll take a $150 shot to win on #2 Cracked Code.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Results, Santa Anita Friday Race 4 — lost $200

January 10, 2009 — maidenking

Workout analyst Bruno De Julio is part owner of #4 Shantika's Dream, who won her debut at 17/1.

Workout analyst Bruno De Julio is part owner of #4 Shantika's Dream, who won her debut at 17/1.

Bubbley Blonde, #2,  was just too irresistible for bettors. She showed several fast workouts and had leading jockey Rafael Bejarano aboard, so the crowd hammered her to 9/5 even though she had never raced before this.

She ran admirably, leading until the top of the stretch, but #4 Shantika’s Dream stalked the pace and drew off in the stretch. Winning trainer Adam Kitchingman worked Shantika’s Dream slowly leading up to the race, which he usually does with his debuters. And he was able to get 17/1 with low-profile jockey Chantal Sutherland riding.

Workout analyst Bruno De Julio is part owner of Shantika’s Dream and this was the second time in five starts that one of the horses he owned won when running for the first time.

I ended up playing $200 on #5 Malibu Artiste, who showed speed in her last, but in this race unsuccessfully tried to rate from just off the lead.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 I. B. Stormin (KY) Court J Saavedra A 8.40 6
2 2 Bubbley Blonde (KY) Bejarano R Walsh K 1.90 2
3 3 She’s Our Ten (KY) Rosario J Sadler J 6.20 5
4 4 Shantika’s Dream (WA) Sutherland C Kitchingman A 17.10 1
5 5 Malibu Artiste (KY) Sorenson D Aguirre P 2.30 3
6 6 Bella Bubbles (CA) Potts C McKaughan A 15.40 7
7 7 Lunar City (FL) Pedroza M Chew M 4.30 4
 
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $36.20 $14.80 $7.40
2 – $4.20 $3.00
5 – – $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $59.10 (4-2)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $352.20 (6-2-4)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $1926.90 (2-6-2-4)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $208.20 (4-2-5)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $121.40 (2-4)
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . 2 Comments »

Friday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 2:34 p.m. post time

January 9, 2009 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $100,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                           Morning line

#2 Bubbley Blonde                            7/2
#5 Malibu Artiste                              5/2

Jockey Rafael Bejarano rides #2 Bubbley Blonde who shows lots of good workouts. But it seems that all of Kathy Walsh’s first timers work out well, get bet, then run poorly in their debuts.

But I still like the filly at 7/2 or higher.

Malibu Artiste, the #5 horse, seems to be the speed. She dueled three-wide on the turn Dec. 5 and hung in there for second. Trainer Paul Aguirre won with six of his last 17 second-time starters and Malibu Artiste has shown some life in morning workouts.

I will bet $150 on #2 Bubbley Blonde at 7/2 to 19/1 and $200 on Malibu Artiste at 2/1 or higher. However, I expect the public to bet one of these two below the odds range, so I’ll likely end up with only one wager.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Santa Anita Thursday Race 8 — won $1,490

January 9, 2009 — maidenking

imgres14With #9 Good Newsman scratched, the public made #4 Bubsy the 9-to-5 favorite, but that horse had weak Beyer Speed Figures for the level. 

At 5-to-1, the Patrick Gallagher-trained #2 Cold Ruler took the lead on the backstretch, while jockey Rafael Bejarano patiently sat a few lengths off the pace, riding 6-to-1 shot #7 Haughty Topper. Bejarano passed Cold Ruler in the stretch, but he couldn’t go with Clinton Potts aboard #3 African Gray, who made a 3-wide move on the turn and found another gear in midstretch to win clear. African Gray, a debuter who began his training at another circuit, paid $27.20 for trainer Ted West.

I bet $150 on the African Gray, but also had $300 on Haughty Topper and $100 on Cold Ruler. I was eyeing #10 At the Beach also, but his odds drifted above my maximum 14-to-1 for him.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Warren’s Buddy (CA) Arambula P Gutierrez J 98.30 8
2 2 Cold Ruler (FL) Espinoza V Gallagher P 5.40 3
3 3 African Gray (KY) Potts C West T 12.60 1
4 4 Bubsy (FL) Solis A Rosales R 1.90 6
5 5 Mont La Salle (FL) Quinonez A Garcia V 67.80 7
6 6 Convenient Memory (CA) Rosario J O’Neill D 3.90 4
7 7 Haughty Topper (CA) Bejarano R Mitchell M 6.90 2
8 8 El Tajin (KY) Garcia M Puype M 3.60 5
10 9 At the Beach (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Lewis C 19.50 9
SCR – Good Newsman (KY) Pedroza M Hendricks D – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
3 $27.20 $9.60 $5.00
7 – $8.80 $5.20
2 – – $4.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $98.50 (3-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $149.30 (1-2-3)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $15661.90 (10-1-2/11/12/13/14-3)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $9956.80 (8 OF 8)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $6204.30 (3-7-2-6-8)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $738.00 (3-7-2)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $80.20 (2-3)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $19690.40 (5-8-10-1-2/11/12/13/1
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Leave a Comment »

Results, Santa Anita Thursday Race 4 — lost $200

January 9, 2009 — maidenking

Jockey Jordan Springer, who was based in Tampa, got her first Santa Anita winner Thursday on #8 Tavern

Jockey Jordan Springer, who was based in Tampa, got her first Santa Anita winner Thursday on #8 Tavern

The favorite #4 White Lace Jimmy was hammered to the unbettable price of 3/2, but he almost got there with a late burst that brought him to within a neck of the winning horse.

But first-time starter #8 Tavern, at 24-to-1, held off White Lace Jimmy to give female jockey Jordan Springer, 31,  her first victory at Santa Anita. Springer began riding at Churchill Downs in 2004 and booted home her first winner at Tampa Bay Downs in January 2005.

I bet $200 on another debuter in the race #5 Llamada Perdida who went off at 16-to-1. But I heard this horse’s name called only one time throughout the race. As track announcer Trevor Denman was rattling off horses on the backstretch, he commented “and last by a long, long way is Llamada Perdida.”

I guess that’s why people don’t like betting first timers because you can be out of the race quickly, without ever getting a run for your money.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com. 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Prince Novetti (KY) Potts C Bell, II T 9.60 5
2 2 Up a Lazy River (TX) Nakatani C Moreno H 33.50 8
3 3 Leopard Creek (KY) Pedroza M Greely C 25.70 7
4 4 White Lace Jimmy (KY) Enriquez I Matlow R 1.50 2
5 5 Llamada Perdida (CA) Delgadillo A Garcia V 16.70 9
6 6 Fair the Storm (CA) Sorenson D Bacorn H 92.80 2
7 7 Lahcotah (FL) Rosario J Paasch C 1.90 4
8 8 Tavern (CA) Springer J Hess, Jr. R 24.30 1
9 9 Kalookan Boxer (CA) Linares M Bean R 116.30 10
10 10 Reckless Capote (KY) Gryder A Lopez J 5.00 6
 
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $50.60 $11.00 $6.00
6 – $30.80 $18.20
4 – $2.40 $2.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $36.30 (8-4)
$1.00 Exacta paid $627.60 (8-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $231.60 (6-5-8)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $986.80 (1-6-5-8)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $19333.50 (8-4-6-7)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $34523.60 (8-6-4-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $1266.10 (8-4-6)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $1736.70 (8-6-4)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $227.60 (5-8)
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Thursday, Santa Anita Race 8 — 4:37 p.m. post time

January 8, 2009 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                                Morning line

#2 Cold Ruler                                             5/1
#3 African Gray                                         12/1
#4 Bubsy                                                   7/2
#7 Haughty Topper                                 5/1
#9 Good Newsman                                     5/1
#10 At the Beach                                       12/1

Three first-time starters look like good bets at the right prices: #3 African Gray, #7 Haughty Topper and #10 At the Beach. The best bet of that group will likely be the Mike Mitchell-trained Haughty Topper. Mitchell is known for being good second time out, but he’s also been winning first time recently and owners Tommy Town Thoroughbreds have a high percentage of debut winners.

On the far outside, owner-trainer Craig Lewis starts #10 At the Beach, an offspring of Larry the Legend, a sire that has produced a few debut winners for Lewis. This trainer’s live maidens tend to get early action on the tote board.

Dan Hendricks trains #9 Good Newsman, who lost two lengths in his last when shuffled back, but showed that he has the ability to win at this level. Both Good Newsman and #4 Bubsy have the right running style to win at 6 1/2 furlongs. On the inside, second-timer #2 Cold Ruler was bet to 7/1 in his first race where he made a middle move at 7 furlongs. Also, he’s showing fast workouts in the Daily Racing Form.

I will bet $300 on #7 Haughty Topper at 5/2 or better, $150 on #3 African Gray at 10/1 to 19/1, and $100 on At the Beach at 5/1 to 14/1.

Also, I will take $200 on #9 Good Newsman at 3/1 or better and $100 on #2 Cold Ruler at 5/2 to 6/1 only.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Thursday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 2:34 p.m. post time

January 8, 2009 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                               Morning line

#4 White Lace Jimmy                          2/1
#5 Llamada Perdida                            10/1
#7 Lahcotah                                     7/2

Trainer Richard Matlow’s horses are doing well second time out and #4 White Lace Jimmy got a four-wide trip in his Dec. 7 debut, but still finished well.

First-time starter #5 Llamada Perdida worked out strongly  on Jan 4, going four furlongs in 47-3/5 seconds to be the sixth best of 78 at the distance. And #7 Lehcotah was close to the pace until the turn in a Nov. 26 route race, before giving way.

At 7/2 to 19/1, I’ll bet $200 on #5 Llamada Perdida.

At 2/1 or better, I want  $200 to win on #4 White Lace Jimmy. But if White Lace Jimmy is bet to 9/5 or lower then, I’ll put $150 on #7 Lahcotah at 3/1 or more.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , . 1 Comment »

Friday, Santa Anita Race 3 — 2:03 p.m. post time

January 2, 2009 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-old fillies

Possible overlays                                           Morning line

#4 Sky Marni                                                       8/1
#7 Holychoir                                                       7/2
#8 Not So Plain Jane                                           8/1

In this 11-horse field, seven first-timers are going as well as four fillies running for the second time that were all trounced by more than 10 lengths in their first races.

The best-looking debut horse is #7 Holychoir who has been working out well and is the daughter of Swiss Yodeler. Another bettable first-timer is #4 Sky Marni, while second-time starter #8 Not So Plain Jane is trained by Paul Aguirre, who won with six of his last 16 horses running  for the second time.

Many capable trainers are in this race, so it would not surprise me to see Ron Ellis, Darrell Vienna or Craig Lewis getting their photo snapped in the winner’s circle at about 2:10 p.m PST. But I can’t bet their horses in this spot, so if they beat me, I will just move on to race eight. 

At the betting window, I will put $250 on #7 Holychoir at 7/2 to 19/1, $150 on #4 Sky Marni at 10/1 to 19/1 and $100 on #8 Not So Plain Jane from 3/1 to 8/1.

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Results, Santa Anita Thursday Race 10 — lost $400

January 2, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Jeff Mullins won with second-timer Jaylo's Mark at 11/1.

Trainer Jeff Mullins won with hidden entry at 10/1

When a competent So. Cal trainer enters two horses in a maiden race, it usually pays to take a close look at both. And I wouldn’t argue with anybody who thought that a profitable long-term angle was to blindly bet them both, as long as they were paying decent odds. 

Trainer Jeff Mullins ran two fillies in Thursday’s tenth, with #11 Jaylo’s Mark getting the money in her second lifetime start at 10/1, while first-timer #9 Katie G finished seventh at 11/1.

Jockey Chantal Sutherland, who rode a recent winning first-time starter for Mullins, took Jaylo’s Mark immediately to the front then, with rivals closing in on her, pulled away by finding another gear in the stretch. 

Jaylo’s Mark had the curious morning line of 20/1. She had run a 51 Beyer Speed Figure in her only race while second-timer #3 Captivating Lyrics, trained by Thomas Bell II, ran a 54 in her debut, but was listed at 6/1. Furthermore, Mullins runs more horses than Bell II and wins at a higher percentage than him.

I bet $200 on Katie G., which was Mullins’ other horse, and $200 on #12 Ocean Style, who loomed at the top of the stretch, but had no late kick.  

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Ultra Cat (CA) Espinoza V Mandella R 2.30 2
2 2 Flash Dance (CA) Talamo J Becerra R 6.80 3
3 3 Captivating Lyrics (KY) Court J Bell, II T 7.60 6
4 4 Mac One (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Harris A 72.20 12
5 5 Count’n Tears (CA) Solis A Saavedra A 26.40 9
6 6 Dona Mary (CA) Potts C Gonzalez S 28.00 4
7 7 Bonita Birdie (CA) Rosario J Mendoza J 34.60 10
8 8 Sand Bridled (CA) Nakatani C Stein R 67.10 5
9 9 Katie G. (CA) Garcia M Mullins J 11.80 7
10 10 Warren’s Lisa (CA) Pedroza M Gutierrez J 6.00 13
11 11 Jaylo’s Mark (CA) Sutherland C Mullins J 10.30 1
12 12 Ocean Style (CA) Flores D Cassidy J 4.10 8
13 13 Stormy Runaway (CA) Stra K Zucker H 78.80 11

Pgm Win Place Show
11 $22.60 $9.40 $7.00
1 – $4.00 $3.00
2 – – $4.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $49.40 (11-1)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $2637.50 (1-3-11)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $6039.00 (4/9-1-3-11)

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . 1 Comment »

Thursday, Santa Anita Race 10 — 4:37 p.m. post time

January 1, 2009 — maidenking

 

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                                Morning line

#1 Ultra Cat                                               7/2
#3 Captivating Lyrics                             6/1
#6 Dona Mary                                           12/1
#9 Katie G.                                               12/1
#11 Jaylo’s Mark                                       20/1
#12 Ocean Style                                         9/2
#13 Stormy Runaway                               30/1

Coming off of two turf sprints, #12 Ocean Style is dropping in class and has shown some ability. She probably fits better in here than with the maiden special weight company that she was keeping. She ran well on the synthetic at Oak Tree on Sept. 24, finishing second in a race for maiden special weight state breds. A three-way battle for the early lead might materialize as three filles are rated about equal: #1 Ultra Cat, #3 Captivating Lyrics and #10 Warren’s Lisa.

With the pace war brewing, Ocean Style might be the main benefitiary.

Second-time starter #2 Ultra Cat stumbled in her debut to lose three lengths then stumbled again in the stretch. Thomas Bell II trains #3 Captivating Lyrics who was making a run through the stretch in her Dec. 5 debut, but jockey Rafael Bejarano had trouble keeping her head straight. 

Of the first-time starters, I like #9 Katie G., trained by Jeff Mullins, who also runs #11 Jaylo’s Mark. Althought Mullins has a lousy 4 percent winning mark with first starters showing in the racing from, I have him down as winning with five of his last 14 high-priced debuting maiden claimers. Also worth a wager at the right price are #6 Dona Mary and #13 Stormy Runaway, who are also starting for the first time.

I ‘m betting $200 on #9 Katie G. at 7/2 to 19/1, and $150 on both #6 Dona Mary and #13 Stormy Runaway, but only at 10/1 to 19/1. Also, I’ll take $200 on #12 Ocean Style at 7/2 or more, but if she’s less than 7/2 then I’ll put $150 on the highest odds of the following two that are less than 5/1 : #1 Ultra Cat and #3 Captivating Lyrics.

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Results Santa Anita Wednesday Race 4 — lost $500

January 1, 2009 — maidenking
imgres

Jockey Joel Rosario sat off the pace and made a run

The favorite #9 Suarez, who was pounded to a slim 2-to-1, found herself surrounded on the backstretch by three other fillies fighting for the lead. Saurez had led in her previous three races, but instead of gunning with them, jockey Joel Rosario took her off the pace.

The decision proved to be brilliant as she passed the tiring 20-1-shot Betterthanfiction in the stretch to win by a length.

Knowing that Suarez wasn’t likely to be on the pace for the first time, I tried to beat her using a first-time starter, two long shots and a horse coming off a layoff.  I bet $200 on both #11 Gone Punk at 9-1 and #10 Bajan Kitty at 5/2, then I put $50 on bombs #2 Jet Set Lass who was 24-1 and #6 Betterthanfiction at 20-1.

Betterthanfiction, who broke slowly in her last race but showed a quick quarter mile burst of acceleration, gave me a cheap thrill Wednesday as she held a clear lead in the stretch, but got run down late.

To watch a replay of this race go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Jet Set Lass (CA) Court J Blincoe T 24.40 5
3 2 Top Rockette (CA) Potts C Rosales R 14.10 9
4 3 Susananda (KY) Enriquez I Matlow R 6.50 3
5 4 Strapless (KY) Espinoza V Greely C 4.50 7
6 5 Betterthanfiction (KY) Sutherland C Hajek I 20.40 2
8 6 Hypnotizing (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Lewis C 19.30 6
9 7 Suarez (CA) Rosario J Scolamieri S 2.10 1
10 8 Bajan Kitty (CA) Pedroza M Machowsky M 2.90 4
11 9 Gone Punk (CA) Baze M O’Neill D 9.70 8
12 10 New Partners (CA) Garcia M Truman E 68.30 10
SCR – Kelleys Kitchen (MEX)     – –
SCR – Rev Her Up (CA)     – –
SCR – Hara (KY) Talamo J Papaprodromou G – –
SCR – Spoolish (CA) Flores D Vienna D – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $6.20 $3.80 $3.00
6 – $14.20 $7.60
4 – – $5.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $41.70 (9-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $138.50 (1-7-9)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $406.50 (3/4-1-7-1/7/9/13/14)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1574.80 (9-6-4-10)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $364.90 (9-6-4)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $47.80 (7-9)
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Leave a Comment »

Wednesday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 2:34 p.m. post time

December 31, 2008 — maidenking

 

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 5 1/2 furlongs, 2-year-olds

Possible overlays                             Morning lines

#2 Jet Set Lass                                           20/1
#4 Susananda                                             9/2
#6 Betterthanfiction                                 15/1
#8 Hypnotizing                                         10/1
#10 Bajan Kitty                                           5/1
#11 Gone Punk                                           12/1

This 10-horse field looks wide open and a decent price is likely, as several first-time starters are entered and the favorite looks vulnerable. I will bet more than one horse in here trying to beat #5 Strapless, #9 Suarez and #4 Susananda, if she’s bet too low.   

It appears that #9 Suarez, who is 7/2 on the morning line, will get lots of betting action because she led for most of her last two races and she’s showing the best two Beyer Speed Figures in the race. However, this late in the year, 2-year-old fillies typically win these types of races with Beyer numbers in the high 60s and low 70s and Saurez’  best is only a 61.

Furthermore, if she gets the lead by the quarter pole, Suarez will have to work hard, as #2 Jet Set Lass and #10 Bajan Kitty figure to be gunning too. Also, one of the first timers is very likely to have early foot.  

Of the debut runners, #11 Gone Punk is the best bet and two others — #4 Susananda and #8 Hypnotizing — have some things to like.  The owners of #4 Susananda, Chandler & Graham, have had six debuting runners in my records over the last two years. They won at 11/1 odds on Dec. 17, 2006 and at 7/2 on Feb. 14, 2007.  However, recently trainer Matlow has been winning second time out.

Trainer Craig Lewis, who is saddling Hypnotizing, has won with 2 of his last 9 Larry The Legend-sired debuters and he struck at odds of 12/1 and 13/1. Both won in January 2007, so maybe it’s getting to be that time of year for Lewis. 

Both #2 Jet Set Lass and #6 Betterthanfiction look like automatic throw outs in the Daily Racing Form, but Jet Set Lass flashed good speed to the quarter pole last time and that’s important in a 5-1/2 furlong race. Betterthanfiction broke slowly in her two races, but last time she made up seven lengths very quickly on the backstretch. She then accelerated four wide on the turn while coming within a few lengths of #9 Suarez before quitting in the stretch. Both of these fillies figure to be monster prices.

Trainer Michael Machowsky is excellent when bringing horses off long layoffs. He missed last time with #10 Bajan Kitty, but is adding blinkers and dropping her in class today, so this one looks live if the odds are right. 

At the betting window, I want $200 to win on #11 Gone Punk if post time odds are 7/2 to 19/1 and I’ll bet $200 on #10 Bajan Kitty but only if she’s 2/1 to 7/2.

Also, I’ll put $150 on both #8 Hypnotizing at 7/2 to 15/1, and #4 Susananda at 7/1 to 20/1. Additionally, I’ll take $50 on both #2 Jet Set Lass and #6 Betterthanfiction at 10/1 or more.

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Results Santa Anita Sunday Race 2 — lost $550

December 29, 2008 — maidenking

imgres1Was betting against 3/5 shot Prince Andrew, hoping that one of these high-priced maiden claimers was a maiden special weight runner in disguise. And #7 Dubai Rainbow almost got to the wire first at 6/1, but the winner ran him down in the stretch.

In the end, I backed #1 Undeniable Truth at 7/1 for $250, #3 Hasty Trend at 14/1 for $200 and I put #100 on #7 Dubai Rainbow.

To watch a reply of this race, go to www.calracing.com

GM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Undeniable Truth (KY) Smith M Ellis R 7.10 3
2 2 Crazy Wager (CA) Baze M Becerra R 15.80 8
3 3 Hasty Trend (FL) Arambula P Mullins J 14.40 6
4 4 Dapper Gene (KY) Sutherland C Velasquez D 47.10 4
5 5 Waves of Honour (KY) Talamo J Biancone P 26.00 7
7 6 Dubai Rainbow (FL) Valdivia, Jr. J Ellis R 6.40 2
8 7 Too Much Heat (CA) Nakatani C Abrams B 4.60 5
9 8 Princeandrew (KY) Flores D Baffert B 0.70 1
SCR – More Than Class (FL) Gryder A Dollase C – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $3.40 $2.40 $2.10
7 – $4.40 $2.80
1 – – $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $5.60 (9-7)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $183.40 (9-7-1-4)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $18.40 (9-7-1)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $6.60 (2-9)
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , . Leave a Comment »
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