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Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 4 — lost $200
April 13, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Joel Rosario got nailed on the wire by #2 Saint's Crown
You almost never see it.
A horse sets the pace down the backstretch then clearly gets passed in the lane. But all of a sudden, the runner who was seemingly left for dead, wakes up and comes with a furious rally to win the race.
However, that’s just what happened when #2 Saint’s Crown shot up the inside to catch #4 Justalittletipsy on the wire. Ridden by Pedro Arambula, who notched just his third win of the year, Saint’s Crown took the field down the backstretch and led on the turn.
But Joel Rosario and Justalittletipsy kicked it into gear and took over by a half a length at the top of the stretch. This filly seemed poised to pull away.
But Saint’s Crown was competitive and wanted the victory more. She kept battling on the inside and prevailed.
I bet $200 on #4 Justalittletipsy and was prepared to bet $300 on #7 Xtraordinary, but she fell just below my 2/1 minimum price.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
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Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 2 — won $1,375
April 13, 2009 — maidenking
Although he didn’t look like much in the Daily Racing Form, #5 My Man Sumo outclassed this field while dominating the race from start to finish.
It was a tremendous training job by the underrated Rafael Becerra, who does good work bringing maidens off layoffs. He took My Man Sumo over from Wesley Ward after the gelding had run three unspectacular races last summer at Del Mar and Fairplex.
My Man Sumo, who last ran on Sept. 13, had always shown speed, but couldn’t last. Becerra hid this horse’s talent from horseplayers by working him out slowly, but jockey Alex Solis broke him well from the gate and he was never challenged for the lead, winning by four lengths.
The favorite trained by Mike Mitchell, #4 Morton Owen, made a wide run on the turn then flattened out in the stretch while Bob Baffert’s runner #7 Only Be Cause pushed the pace then came up empty late.
I bet $250 on #5 My Man Sumo and collected $2,025. But I also put $400 on #4 Morton Owen, so I profited a total of $1,375 on the race.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
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Sunday, Santa Anita Race 6 — 3:05 pm post time
April 12, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo filles
Possible overlays Morning line
#1 Bread ‘n Water 15/1
#2 Belated Bid 8/1
#3 First Grade 4/1
#8 Ride Me Fast 5/1
The most talented horse in this race, I believe, is #8 Ride Me Fast, who is owned by Mike Pegram and trained by Bob Baffert. In her last race on March 4, Ride Me Fast was a length away from a pace setter who burned a quarter mile in 21.60 seconds and was two lengths behind a half in 44 seconds flat. And in her debut, she showed that she could finish by running a 77 Beyer Speed Figure while missing by a half a length.
Early speed isn’t that important at 6-1/2 furlongs, but I believe jockey Tyler Baze will get her to relax and she’ll finish with good energy.
Baffert also starts #2 Belated Bid who led in her debut without much encouragement from the jockey, but the pace was not quick. The only way I can see this horse winning is if it comes from behind and Baffert is slick enough to make that happen after baiting us with Ride Me Fast.
First-time starters #1 Bread ‘n Water and #3 First Grade look like good possibilities if their prices are right.
I will bet $400 to win on #8 Ride Me Fast at 2/1 and up, $1oo on #2 Belated Bid at 4/1 and higher, $150 on #1 Bread ‘n Water at 10/1 to 19/1 only and $250 on #3 First Grade at 7/2 and up.
Sunday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 2:03 pm post time
April 12, 2009 — maidenkingMaiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden claiming $25,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 4 yo and up, f&m
Possible overlays Morning line
#4 Justalittletipsy 9/2
#5 Tiz Salsa 2/1
#7 Xtraordinary 5/2
The main question with #5 Tiz Salsa is why did trainer Jerry Hollendorfer give this filly up? Usually when a horse goes from a successful trainer to a low-percentage conditioner the horse doesn’t run as well. And the ownership of Thomas and York is the same as it was on Feb. 16, so this runner was not just purchased.
Absolutely, Tiz Salsa has the Beyer Speed Figures to win this race, but is this the same horse that Hollendorfer trained? I think not.
So the next best two horses are #7 Xtraordinary and #4 Justalittletipsy. Xtraordinary has a bit of speed and has run well enough in the past to win at this level. She’s had 11 races, but 8 of them were at maiden special weight and she faced allowance horses once.
Peter Miller trains #4 Justalittletipsy, who came on with a good charge in the stretch in her debut. With better position early in the race, she might improve enough to win.
I will bet $200 on #4 Justalittletipsy from 5/2 to 9/1 and $300 on #7 Xtraordinary from 2/1 to 7/2.
Sunday, Santa Anita Race 2 — 1 pm post time
April 12, 2009 — maidenkingMaiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s
Possible overlays Morning line
#4 Morton Owen 2/1
#5 My Man Sumo 5/1
#7 Only Be Cause 5/2
Trainer Mike Mitchell is usually dominant in a race like this, but the one equal he has in maiden races is Bob Baffert. Both trainers start contending horses in this race.
Mitchell’s runner #4 Morton Owen ran a 76 Beyer Speed Figure in a maiden claiming $85,000 sprint on Feb. 16. But then the trainer ran Morton Owen in two route races and it didn’t seem like he could handle the competition. He should run better with the class drop and cut back in distance.
On the far outside, #7 Only Be Cause missed by a nose in his last, which was at the same class and distance for Baffert. Only Be Cause has been running Beyer Speed Figures that are right in the range of the median winning number of 68 for the class. He’s been caught wide in his most recent races and with this post position he may get a wide trip once again.
Over the past couple of years, Rafael Becerra has won several maiden races with horses coming back off long recent layoffs. Today, he saddles #5 My Man Sumo who showed speed in his previous races and could do the job at a price.
I will bet $250 on #5 My Man Sumo between 2/1 and 9/1, but I’ll reduce the wager to $100 if he’s 10/1 or more.
Also, I want $300 to win on #4 Morton Owen at 8/5 to 3/1 only, but if outside that range then I’ll opt for $200 on #7 Only Be Cause instead, as long as he’s at least 2/1.
Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 4 — lost $600
April 11, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Danny Sorenson rallied first timer #4 Treadwell for the win
Jockey Danny Sorenson sat in mid pack then unleashed a rally in the stretch to get first-time starter #4 Treadwell to the winner’s circle.
Favorite #3 Total Sum ran a decent race coming off a 14-month layoff — and jockey Joe Talamo was all over him in the stretch — but Total Sum lost by a neck when he couldn’t get by the winner.
In hindsight, the key to this race may have been the low Beyer Speed Figures showing in these horses’ past performances. The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is a 74, but the best overall sprint Beyer on this surface for these runners was just a 68.
In light of that, maybe the first time starter Treadwell’s chances could have been upgraded. But no use dwelling on the past because both Bob Baffert and Mike Mitchell have runners going today that may be live.
In this race, I bet $400 on #3 Total Sum and $200 on #7 Lago de Oro.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
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Saturday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 2:03 pm post time
April 11, 2009 — maidenkingMaiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up
Possible overlays Morning line
#3 Total Sum 5/2
#7 Lago de Oro 3/1
Five of these eight colts and geldings are coming off of recent long layoffs, but the two best look like #3 Total Sum and #7 Lago de Oro.
Total Sum is trained by Ron Ellis who has had success with maiden claimers coming off long layoffs, especially when they are making their third lifetime starts. In February 2008, Total Sum came up the inside on his own power to press the pace in a $40,000 maiden claiming race, so he has the necessary speed to win here. This horse’s Beyer Speed Figures of 58 and 54 look weak considering that most of these races are won by a 74 or better.
But Total Sum posted his numbers early in his 3-year-old season, so his natural maturity should allow him to run faster.
Lago de Oro came off a 10-month break on Feb. 20 where he earned a 61 Beyer Speed Figure while showing a bit of early speed at this same class level. On March 13, he also ran a 61, but at the start Lago de Oro bumped another horse slightly, showed speed while four or five wide on the turn, then had no stretch punch. I adjusted his Beyer Speed Figure to 69 because of the trouble and he looks like he may put it all together today.
Although #1 Winterscore’s speed is dangerous, I don’t think he can run with Total Sum or Lago de Oro. Trainer Mel Stute likes to run them into shape and he upgrades jockeys on Winterscore from Delgadillo to Tyler Baze. I would consider this horse if both Total Sum and Lago de Oro were dead on the board.
Big Water, #2, looks like he’d like 6-1/2 or 7 furlongs much better and first timers that look like #4 Treadwell don’t win often enough to make them worthwhile bets.
I will wager $400 on #3 Total Sum at 7/2 or less and $200 on Lago de Oro at 2/1 to 7/2 only.
Quality Road’s Derby hopes ride on Ian. Watch him work
April 10, 2009 — maidenkingThe hoof specialist who patched up Quality Road’s quarter crack this week made a video explaining exactly what he did.
Ian McKinlay inserted a drain inside the Kentucky Derby hopeful’s patch to allow any blood or fluid to flush out. It is not a procedure McKinlay normally performs on a quarter crack, but he did it as a precautionary measure because the stakes are high.
If Quality Road misses any training, it may cost him the Kentucky Derby.
McKinlay, who also worked to solve Big Brown’s feet problems last year, filmed the procedure to educate other hoof specialists and promote his company Tenderhoof Solutions. The video, which is narrated by McKinlay, was released on Fran Jurga’s Hoof Blog Thursday and Quality Road is not the horse being worked on, but he had the same procedure.
Foot nearly healed, Quality Road likely to go in Ky Derby
April 8, 2009 — maidenking
Quality Road shown winning the Feb. 28 Fountain of Youth Stakes
By reading the comments from hoof repair specialist Ian McKinlay, the quickly-improving quarter crack injury plaguing Florida Derby winner Quality Road is unlikely to keep the colt out of training or to miss the Kentucky Derby.
Numerous reports on web sites and blogs this week broke the news that Quality Road developed a quarter crack, which was noticed after the March 28 Florida Derby. The crack was patched before trainer Jimmy Jerkens sent the horse north from Florida to his new training base at Belmont Park.
Many of the stories left open the question of the severity of the injury and cast doubt on whether Quality Road would run in the Kentucky Derby, since a bad quarter crack could cause the colt to miss vast amounts of training. But Fran Jurga’s Hoof Blog was one of the first to find out through McKinlay what everybody wanted to know: Would the quarter crack knock Quality Road out of the Kentucky Derby?
McKinlay, a New Jersey-based hoof specialist who Jerkens summoned to attend to Quality Road’s foot, told Jurga in a story published on Monday that the injury is relatively minor. When he arrived at Belmont, McKinlay pulled off the old patch, cleaned up the crack, then laced it with steel sutures.
“The whole thing should be over by this weekend and he’ll be on his way,” said McKinlay, who last year worked on Big Brown’s hoof problems in both front feet and the quarter crack Big Brown developed leading up to the Belmont Stakes.
McKinlay said Quality Road’s injury does not compare to what Big Brown went through. Although Big Brown had foot problems, he still competed in all three Triple Crown races.
“This is no Big Brown-type of situation,” McKinlay added.
Quality Road impressively won both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby this spring to become one of the Kentucky Derby future book favorites. If he starts, Quality Road would enter the Derby gate with consecutive Beyer Speed Figures in excess of 110 in his previous two races.
And that’s significant because the last six runnings of the Derby were all won by colts who ran less than 110 on the Beyer scale.
On Wednesday, Quality Road galloped at Belmont Park and McKinlay applied a new patch with a drain for any blood to channel out. When horses have injuries, the area heats up indicating inflammation. But McKinlay said the crack was “ice cold” when Quality Road came back to the barn.
“That thing looked perfect. He went to the track, galloped, came back and looked great,” he told the Bloodhorse. “If the foot is cold tomorrow, it’s a done deal; it’s behind us.”
The drain that McKinlay added to his patching technique is not something he normally does with a quarter crack. But since it is imperative that Quality Road not miss any training, McKinlay modified his patching procedure.
“It’s probably overkill, but why take any chances?” McKinlay said.
Jerkens plans to give Quality Road his first workout since the Florida Derby on Friday or Saturday depending on the weather.
Information in this story from Fran Jurga’s Hoof Blog was used with permission.
Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 3 — won $330
April 6, 2009 — maidenking
It seems to me that there is no more realistic trainer in the game than Mike Mitchell. A few years ago, I remember a horse owned by Overbrook Farm that ran several times at maiden special weight, but just wasn’t good enough to win at that class. Since Overbrook Farm is mainly a breeding operation, the owners were reluctant to enter their horse in a claiming race and risk losing him.
And gelding him? That was completely out of the question.
Enter Mike Mitchell.
Mitchell talked one of his owners into buying the horse in a private sale. The trainer quickly gelded the animal, dropped it into a claiming race, and watched it win convincingly.
So, it’s no coincidence that Mitchell is winning with 37 percent of his maiden claimers. He knows how to get the job done.
In this race, #11 Bostoner was running in his tenth lifetime start, but nine of those were in maiden special weights. Zayat Stables, Bostoner’s owners, paid $360,000 for the horse as a yearling in 2006 and were very patiently waiting for him to learn how to run.
Dale Romans trained Bostoner on the East Coast and Mid West during 2007-2008, then Zayat sent the 4-year-old colt to Mitchell this January. Mitchell seemingly tried everything to appease the powerful Zayat Stables, who also owns Pioneerof The Nile: He ran Bostoner once on the grass, once in a main track route and then tried him in a sprint against lower quality maiden special weight horses at Golden Gate.
In his nine races, Bostoner never finished better than third and never broke 80 on the Beyer scale. So, it seemed painfully obvious that Bostoner wasn’t going to suddenly wake up and start winning stakes races.
Bostoner was nothing more than a claimer and Mitchell knew it. Although the colt couldn’t win at higher levels, he ran fast enough in a majority of his previous races to win most low-level maiden claimers in Southern California.
So, on Sunday, Mitchell dropped Bostoner into a $25,000 maiden claiming sprint where the colt was finally running where he belonged.
In the race, jockey Rafael Bejarano battled for the lead down the backstretch, Bostoner took over in the lane then hung tough to the wire. When it was over, Zayat Stables had moved Bostoner out of the maiden ranks, while Mitchell fattened up his already bloated winning percentage even more.
But Bostoner only paid $4.40 because all of Mitchell’s live ones seem to be bet to 5/2 or below. On the site, I wagered $400 to win on #11 Bostoner and $150 on #6 Don’t Forget Mug at 4/1. I profited $330 after collecting $880.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com
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Injury knocks The Pamplemousse out of the Ky Derby
April 6, 2009 — maidenkingThe Pamplemousse will not run in the Kentucky Derby on May 2 because of a tendon injury that was discovered on Saturday during a vet exam just hours before the Santa Anita Derby.
“He has a small lesion (on the tendon in his left front leg) and we’ll do the best thing by the horse,” part-owner Alex Solis II told Bloodhorse.com.
Solis II estimated that The Pamplemousse would be sidelined for more than six months and added that he is confident that the colt will race again.
The Pamplemousse won the San Rafael (gr. III) and Sham (gr. III) stakes this season at Santa Anita. He has won his last three starts while earning $209,280 in five starts. Trainer Julio Canani scratched him from the Santa Anita Derby after a pre-race veterinary exam found heat in his left front leg.
With Saturday’s scratch, betting was suspended on The Pamplemousse in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which is a pari-mutuel bet through Churchill Downs. Pools closed on Sunday with horseplayers making I Want Revenge the 9/2 favorite. Quality Road was the second choice at 6/1, then Friesan Fire, 8/1; Pioneerof the Nile, 9/1; and Dunkirk, 11/1.
Injuries are an unfortunate part of future book wagers because bettors lose without their horse ever getting to the gate.
Three important Kentucky Derby preps were run Saturday and below are videos of the Santa Anita Derby, the Wood Memorial and the Illinois Derby.
Sunday, Santa Anita Race 3 — 1:31 post time
April 5, 2009 — maidenkingMaiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races
Maiden claiming $25,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up
Possible overlays Morning line
#6 Don’t Forget Muq 6/1
#11 Bostoner 5/2
#14 Lenador 12/1
The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is a 74 and #11 Bostoner has met or exceeded that number in four of his nine races. The problem was that this horse has been running in maiden special weight races on the grass and even tried a route on the main track.
Mike Mitchell took over the training of Bostoner in January and I’m sure he was reluctant to drop him into claiming because the horse was purchased by the Zayat Stables for $360,000. But after trying grass, a main track route and even shipping to the weaker fields at Golden Gate, it was time to face reality and enter the horse at a class level where it realistically can win.
And nobody’s better with a maiden claimer in Southern California than Mitchell, who has won with 25 of his last 68 maiden claimers or 36 percent.
Others who have a shot are #6 Don’t Forget Muq and #14 Lenador. Trained by Frank Monteleone, Don’t Forget Muq is coming off five-months of rest and relaxation. He’s got the best quarter mile speed in the race, which means something at 5-1/2 furlongs. Lenador is also coming back after a long break. He ran a 70 Beyer Speed Figure on July 12, which was his last time out.
I will bet $400 to win on Bostoner at 5/2 or less, but nothing on him at 3/1 or more. Also, I will take $150 to win on whoever goes off at a lower price in the range of 4/1 to 9/1 between #4 Don’t Forget Muq and #14 Lenador. But if Bostoner is 3/1 or more, I’ll put $150 on both Don’t Forget Muq and Lenador only at 4/1 and 9/1.
Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 5 — lost $550
April 4, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Ron Ellis scored with longshot FTS #3 Canonize
Horseplayers have core handicapping beliefs that tend to make them favor safe maidens — like recently raced runners with high Beyer numbers, while steering clear of perceived riskier types — like longshot first time starters and horses coming off long layoffs.
Thoroughbred racing is a good gambling game, because if horseplayers look closely enough, and mine enough coal, they’ll discover a few types of bets where they’ll have a long-term advantage. Of course, if bettors show a healthy profit on certain types of wagers, then other types must be huge losers.
It’s just the nature of the game.
If the track takeout is 15 percent, not every angle over time will return 85 cents for every dollar bet. Some will return $1.25, while others just 65 cents.
And I’ve discovered one of the absolute worst bets in Southern California. It’s a first-time starter whose post time odds are below 7-to-2. So many times I see debut horses breaking slowly or not running their best until their second start. So, why take a short price?
According to my records, of the 203 first timers I have who were less than 7-to-2, just 44 of them won or 21 percent. And if you bet them all, you’d be losing 33 cents on the dollar. So, why bet any of them?
Most of these horses have high percentage jockeys and trainers, a hefty purchase price, and lots of good workouts including several bullets. Believe me, when you see one of these animals do your bank account a favor and stay away.
In Saturday’s fifth race, #10 Raymorrison was just such a beast. This first timer was hammered down to 2-to-1 by Santa Anita horseplayers, who must have been baited in by the perceived safety of Raymorrison’s six bullet workouts, decent connections and $110,000 purchase price.
Raymorrison ended up running fairly well, as he stalked the pace and hung on for second. The one positive aspect of these low-performing, heavily bet first timers is that they create opportunities for overlays on other horses in the race.
In Saturday’s race, first timers #6 Company Tiger and #11 Hidden Blessing had long-term profitable angles going for them. And #3 Canonize was another profit fit until his price drifted out of my 7/2 to 19/1 betting zone as the horses were loading into the gate. Maybe it was the 50,000 fans onhand for the SA Derby that pushed up the price.
Anyway, Canonize ended up winning the race by open lengths for trainer Ron Ellis and he paid $49.20.
My plan was to bet $250 on #3 Canonize if his post time odds landed between 7/2 and 19/1. I would have won about $5,000 if he stayed at 19/1 but since Canonize was 23/1 my alternative plan kicked in so I did not have a nickel of website money on him.
In the end, I ended up betting $150 on #6 Company Tiger at 9/1; and $200 on both #8 Vanquest at 5/2 and #11 Hidden Blessing at 5/1.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
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Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 1 — lost $600
April 4, 2009 — maidenking
Lanie's Way, #13, eeks out victory over #11 Fine Time to Leave
Coming into this race Mike Mitchell, the trainer of #11 Fine Time to Leave, had won with 24 of his last 66 maiden claimers and anybody who was on them all made 24 percent on their money.
So, even though Fine Time to Leave had not run a Beyer Speed Figure in the 60’s, she figured to make an impact. Jockey Rafael Bejarano broke Mitchell’s filly in the middle of the pack then made a five-wide move on the turn. She rallied on the outside in the stretch, but couldn’t run down #13 Lanie’s Way, who held on by a head.
Lanie’s Way had almost the same exact trip as Fine Time to Leave. The only difference was that jockey Victor Espinoza moved earlier on the turn and was always a couple of lengths ahead of Fine Time to Leave until the very end.
I bet $400 on Fine Time to Leave at 2/1 and $200 on #3 Latego Light at 4/1.
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
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Maiden King 