Sunday, Santa Anita Race 2 — 1 pm post time

February 21, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo fillies

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#1 Godfrey Queen                              15/1
#4 White Lamb                                   5/2
#7 Shiksa                                         10/1
#9 Hard Kisses                                    5/1

Julio Canani trains #5 Lady Lumberjack and she has the kind of standout Beyer Speed Figures that ensure she’ll be overbet. I just hope she doesn’t scratch, because I see several potential money horses in here.

On Jan. 11, #4 White Lamb with Garrett Gomez aboard was stalking the pace on the rail down the backstretch. As the field swung into the turn, Gomez was boxed in behind a three-horse wall with another runner right outside of him. Gomez did his best to run toward a seam, but it closed quickly and he had to steady then was bumped. Gomez, who usually rides his mounts maniacally in the stretch, could find no room for White Lamb and the jockey could never get into this one.

One huge drawback is that this trouble is very obvious on the replay and in the past I’ve seen horses who had huge problems in the stretch get bet too low the next time out. Also, Garrett Gomez will not help the price, so I’ll  likely be looking elsewhere.

Bob Baffert trains #9 Hard Kisses, who has been really rolling during morning workouts and looks live. Other first timers that look like good possibilities include #1 Godfrey Queen and #7 Shiksa.

I will bet $350 to win on #9 Hard Kisses at 7/2 to 9/1 but just $100 at 10/1 to 19/1. Also, I want $100 on #1 Godfrey Queen at 7/2 to 9/1, but $150 at 10/1 to 19/1. My bet on #7 Shiksa, will be $150 from 7/2 to 19/1.

If Hard Kisses is bet below 7/2, or higher than 9/1, then I’ll take $200 to win on #4 White Lamb at 5/2 or higher, with all other potential betting scenarios still in play.

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Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 8 — lost $600

February 21, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Bob Baffert and Garrett Gomez combined on #4 Zensational, who paid $3.20.

Trainer Bob Baffert and Garrett Gomez combined on #4 Zensational, who paid $3.20.

No matter what bettors gave the most priority to when handicapping this race, they all landed on #4 Zensational.

For those who play trainers, Zensational had Bob Baffert. For people who follow jockeys, the rider was Garrett Gomez. Workouts? Six quick ones including three bullets. Breeding and confirmation? The owner bought Zensational for $700,000, so the genes are top notch. Speed? Had the lead in his debut.

Even  people who bet nothing but gray horses liked him, as he’s a roan.

Much like Big Brown in last year’s Belmont, this horse looked so good that he couldn’t be bet. Everyone at the track had him, everyone at the Indian casinos loved Zensational and I’m sure the money was pouring through the windows on him in Vegas.

He went off at 60 cents on the dollar, and at that rate Zensational — and horses like him — need to win seven of 10 races to make any money for their backers. If they win six — you lose. And in horse racing, too many things can go wrong to take that price.

Yes, Zensational couldn’t lose and he didn’t. His backers will tell you that they made a quick 60 percent profit in just over a minute, and not even Bernard Madoff promised anything close to that.

But just enjoy the feeling while it lasts folks, and please do me a favor and keep pounding those 3-to-5 shots. Next time, however, just remember that  funny things have been known to happen at the racetrack.

My plays in this race were $200 to win on these three horses: #1 Gold Schleiger at 5/1, #7 Off the Wall at 11/1 and #8 Party Hard at 8/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Gold Schleiger (FL) Baze M Mullins J 5.30 7
2 2 Ginello (KY) Rosario J Dollase C 16.70 9
3 3 Steel Blue (KY) Rios J Frankel R 31.20 8
4 4 Zensational (KY) Gomez G Baffert B 0.60 1
5 5 Mr. Bossy Pants (KY) Husbands P Barba A 41.30 5
6 6 Arcodoro (KY) Arambula P Guillot E 29.90 6
7 7 Off the Wall (KY) Smith M Headley B 11.00 2
8 8 Party Hard (KY) Talamo J Greely C 8.00 4
9 9 Iron Fortitude (KY) Bejarano R Pletcher T 9.40 3
SCR – Brian the Brave (KY) Sutherland C O’Callaghan C – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $3.20 $2.80 $2.40
7 – $7.40 $5.00
9 – – $4.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $13.30 (4-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $140.40 (2-11-4)
$1.00 Superfecta paid
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Saturday, Santa Anita Race 8 — 4:07 pm post time

February 21, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#1 Gold Schleiger                           9/2
#4 Zensational                              5/2
#6 Arcodoro                                  12/1
#7 Off the Wall                               8/1
#8 Party Hard                                 5/1
#10 Brian the Brave                       20/1

All 10 horses in this race are running for either the first or second time. 

I am going to guess that Garrett Gomez will be over bet on #4 Zensational. Why? Because it seems that Garrett Gomez is always over bet no matter who he rides.

Also, Zensational has a marquee name trainer, Bob Baffert, the horse has nothing but great workouts showing, it was bought for $700,000, and it was pounded to 2-to-1 the first time it ran.

Therefore, it will probably be 9-to-5 or less, and if so, then I can’t use it.

However, second timers #1 Gold Schleiger and #8 Party Hard look like they can get the job done, as they ran well in their debuts and have good workouts. First timers #6 Arcodoro, #7 Off the Wall and #10 Brian the Brave could also light up the tote board.

I will bet $200 on #1 Gold Schleiger and #8 Party Hard at 5/2 to 9/1. Additionally, I’ll put $200 on these three horses at 10/1 to 19/1 only: #6 Arcodoro, #7 Off the Wall, and #10 Brian the Brave.

If the public crushes the Todd Pletcher-trained #9 Iron Fortitude which allows #4 Zensational to be 5/2 or better, then I will play $200 on Zensational with the longer odds of #1 Gold Schleiger and #8 Party Hard that are still less than 10/1. However, the potential bets on the first timers will remain intact.

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Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 5 — won $1,080

January 24, 2009 — maidenking

see-full-size-image1In this 10-horse field, five of the colts were between 5-to-2 and 6-to-1, which says to me that the public really couldn’t tell who the best horse was.

But soon after the race began, it became increasingly clear that #4 Wall Street Wonder towered over this field and may very well be a stakes horse. The Bob Baffert-trained second-time starter immediately shot to a clear lead, then really poured it on in the stretch to win by 5-1/4 lengths.

I bet $400 on Wall Street Wonder, and was eyeballing first-timers #2 Vanquest and #6 Bridging, but neither fell into the 10/1 to 19/1 odds range that I was looking for.

To watch a replay of this race, go to calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Warring Heart (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Canani J 22.00 8
2 2 Vanquest (NY) Baze T Sadler J 28.60 6
3 3 Pleasure to Ride (KY) Coa E Hollendorfer J 13.90 7
4 4 Wall Street Wonder (FL) Rosario J Baffert B 2.70 1
5 5 Tevez the Tiger (KY) Bejarano R Harty E 3.40 4
6 6 Bridging (KY) Nakatani C Puype M 4.50 5
7 7 Degree of Power (KY) Gomez G Frankel R 6.40 2
8 8 Steel Blue (KY) Rios J Frankel R 23.00 9
9 9 Mythical Power (KY) Espinoza V Baffert B 6.10 3
10 10 Crack Thepat (KY) Talamo J Biancone P 19.00 10
 
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $7.40 $4.20 $3.00
7 – $7.20 $4.40
9 – – $4.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $24.80 (4-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $72.70 (7-5-4)
$1.00 Superfecta
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Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 1 — won $980

January 24, 2009 — maidenking

financial_money_rollYep. It seems to me that #7 Deep Pockets is better suited for 6 furlongs or shorter. The 4-to-5 shot trained by Bob Baffert chased pace setter #3 Drake Lake down the backstretch and put him away at the top of the lane.

Jockey Corey Nakatani was trying to ration Deep Pockets’ brilliant speed, but this horse  was in deep water during the last sixteenth of a mile, as #5 Buck’s Bro and a host of other went by him.

On the bright side, Deep Pockets’ fifth-place finish will probably allow him to go off at 2-to-1 or better next time he races. And if he shortens up, then I’ll probably bet him.

But this race was all about jockey Joel Rosario and #5 Buck’s Bro. Rosario, who won four races Saturday, placed Buck’s Bro in the middle of the seven-horse field and made a 3-wide move on the turn. Deep Pockets had the lead for about five jumps before Buck’s Bro came knocking. Rosario bumped a bit with Deep Pockets in midstretch, then pulled away to win by 1-1/4 lengths.

I bet $300 on the winner at 7-to-2, but also had $100 to win on the second-place finisher #6 Spirit of Cochise, who was 6-to-1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
3 1 Ms Honkytonk Woman (CA) Russell C Shidaker D 112.20 10
4 2 Connie the Queen (KY) Quinonez A Matties G 19.70 3
5 3 Queen Missy (CA) Delgadillo A Garcia V 52.20 7
6 4 Holladay Dixie (PA) Baze T Gaines C 1.80 5
7 5 No Guessing (KY) Rosario J Walsh K 3.50 1
9 6 Sally Says So (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Lewis C 9.40 6
10 7 Ata Honour (KY) Olguin G Burnison E 16.30 9
11 8 Stylin Deputy (KY) Flores D Cassidy J 6.20 4
12 9 Happyinexcess (CA) Sorenson D Semkin S 12.00 11
13 10 Lil Troublemaker (CA) Scott J Soto A 78.10 8
14 11 Classic Demand (CA) Baze M Eurton P 5.20 2
SCR – Black Point (KY)     – –
SCR – Silent Smoke (CA)     – –
SCR – Snooty Gal (KY)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $9.00 $5.20 $4.00
14 – $6.40 $5.00
4 – – $8.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $30.20 (7-14)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $240.00 (5-7-7)
$1.00 Superfecta
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Monday, Santa Anita Race 9 — 4:37 p.m. post time

January 19, 2009 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 7 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                      Morning line

#5 You Wood                                   6/1
#6 Rise Above                                  3/1
#9 Zephaniah                                   9/2
#12 Hurley’s Way                              7/2

The Ed Moger-trained #9 Zephaniah looks like he could get an easy lead, but will he be able to last?

Bob Baffert has been running #12 Hurley’s Way in maiden special weight routes and now cuts back to maiden claiming 7 furlongs. Hurley’s Way was third best of 41 while working out at 4 furlongs on Jan. 15 and should perform better facing weaker. Second-timer #5 You Wood was bet to 4-to-1 versus nine others in his debut and he looks like a solid gelding for trainer Vladimir Cerin.

And finally, you can’t ignore the 72 Beyer Speed Figure run by #6 Rise Above in a Jan. 4 route race. Trainer Mel Stute hit at only eight percent in 2008, but Stute looks like he’s got this one headed in the right direction.

At 2/1 or more, I’ll bet $300 on #6 Rise Above and $200 on #12 Hurley’s Way. 

But if either Rise Above or Hurley’s way are 9/5 or less, then I’ll replace which ever horse has unbettable odds with a $200 wager on #5 You Wood at 2/1 to 10/1 and $200 on Zemphaniah, #9, at 7/2 or more .

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . 1 Comment »

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 6 — 3:05 p.m. post time

January 11, 2009 — maidenking

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, 3-year-old fillies

Possible overlays                                   Morning line

#1 Storm the Church                               12/1
#2 White Lamb                                       9/2
#4 Guided Wave                                       8/1
#6 No Saint But Sweet                              5/2
#7 Black Magic Mama                                7/2
#8 Ride Me Fast                                       5/1

I wouldn’t be surprised to see any filly but #3 Shadow Queen win this race. So, I’ll use the tote board as a guide, make some good bets at decent odds, and everything should work out in the long run.

Coming off a six-month layoff, #2 White Lamb should be near the front of the pack at the quarter pole. On July 5 at Arlington Park, White Lamb was bet to 6-to-5 in a 10 horse field and she flashed early speed before fading, however jockey Rene Douglas merely breezed her from the eighth pole to the wire.

The median Beyer Speed Figure to win this race is an 80, and trainer Jeff Mullins runner #6 No Saint But Sweet earned a 79 Beyer in her Dec. 7 debut. She broke slowly and came running late that day. Mullins also sends out first-timer #1 Storm the Church, who will have no-name jockey Pedro Arambula aboard, and she has several good workouts that make her a good bet at the right price.

On New Year’s Day, Mullins won with a hidden entry horse named Jaylo’s Mark at 10-to-1. She was running for the second time while Mullins’ first-time starter Katie G. finished seventh at 11-to-1.

Also debuting in this race is #8 Ride Me Fast. Although owner Mike Pegram hasn’t historically done well with this type, if Ride Me Fast gets some betting action then she’ll fit the profile of winning Bob Baffert first timers.

Finally, #4 Guided Wave broke slowly in her first race before making a decent run and she could wake up. And trainer Doug O’Neill must think highly of #7 Black Magic Mama because she ran in both the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies and the Hollywood Starlet. Today, she cuts back to a sprint, but I’d like her more if they were going 6-1/2 or 7 furlongs.

I will bet $200 on #8 Ride Me Fast from 7/2 to 9/1, but just $100 if her post time odds drift up to between 10/1 and 19/1. I want $150 on #1 Storm the Church at 7/2 to 19/1 and $150 on #2 White Lamb if her post time odds are 2/1 to 6/1. 

If White Lamb’s odds fall out of the betting zone — either too high or too low — then I’ll  put $150 on #6 No Saint But Sweet at 2/1 or higher. 

Note: I also plan to bet the ninth race today, which goes off at 4:38 p.m., but won’t be able to post it until 3:30.

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Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 3 — won $840

January 4, 2009 — maidenking

imgres8Trainer Bob Baffert had #9 Gotmymojoworkin surrounded by his two-horse hidden entry at the top of the lane. But neither the 2-to-1 favorite Street Car or the speedy Wall Street Wonder could run down the stubborn Florida bred.

Jockey Martin Garcia hustled #9 Gotmymojoworkin from the gate and the 3-year-old debuter shot to the front. But on Garcia’s inside came Garrett Gomez aboard #2 Street Car, who surged to the lead up the rail. 

But Garcia didn’t panic, instead he sat chilly a length off the pace. At the top of the stretch, Gotmymojoworkin hit the front and clearly put Street Car away, but at the same time a new threat emerged outside from # 8 Wall Street Wonder. The two ran head-and-head to midstretch, before Gotmymojoworkin lived up to his name and shook away.

I ended up betting $200 on the winner at 5.7-1 and $300 on #8 Wall Street Wonder. Since #2 Street Car was bet below 7/2, my wager on him was not in play.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

GM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Pauper’s Prize (FL) Rosario J Cerin V 26.50 2
2 2 Street Car (KY) Gomez G Baffert B 2.30 9
3 3 Pleasure to Ride (KY) Bejarano R Hollendorfer J 6.30 8
4 4 Ego (KY) Arambula P Vargas J 84.30 7
5 5 Mr. President (FL) Espinoza V Shirreffs J 15.40 6
6 6 Jeranimo (FL) Court J Pender M 14.00 3
7 7 Snapshot (KY) Flores D Sise, Jr. C 2.00 5
8 8 Wall Street Wonder (FL) Nakatani C Baffert B 9.60 4
9 9 Gotmymojoworkin (FL) Garcia M Sadler J 5.70 1

Pgm Win Place Show
9 $13.40 $8.40 $6.80
1 – $20.20 $10.20
6 – – $8.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $164.10 (9-1)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $722.30 (3-7-9)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $15890.30 (9-1-6-8)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $1172.30 (9-1-6)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $116.20 (7-9)

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Results Santa Anita Sunday Race 5 — lost $250

December 29, 2008 — maidenking
imgres2

Bob Baffert had #7 Deep Pockets ready off the long layoff

The horse I bet, #7 Deep Pockets at 7/2, broke alertly and jockey Cory Nakatani chased #2 No Prodical all the way around, finally winning a photo for place at the wire. Trainer Bob Baffert was bringing Deep Pockets off an eight-month layoff, an although his horse won the battle with No Prodigal, Baffert lost the war because a first-time starter named Deputy Flyer blew by both of them in deep stretch.

To watch a replay of this race go to www.calracing.com

 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Fractious Child (CA) Potts C Mullins J 40.80 10
2 2 No Prodigal (CA) Flores D Yakteen T 5.50 3
3 3 Deputy Flyer (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Ellis R 7.40 1
4 4 Spirit of Cochise (CA) Talamo J Harty E 23.30 7
5 5 Kettle Call (CA) Rosario J Gaines C 15.50 8
6 6 Kaptain Kordough (CA) Garcia M Garcia O 5.40 6
7 7 Deep Pockets (CA) Nakatani C Baffert B 3.60 2
9 8 Leavin in a Limo (CA) Gryder A Koriner B 24.40 9
10 9 Cole Rocks (CA) Espinoza V Zucker H 41.90 11
11 10 Raise the River (CA) Bejarano R Gaines C 2.50 5
12 11 Buck’s Bro (CA) Quinonez A Sherlock G 12.90 4
SCR – Arrogant Carson (CA)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
3 $16.80 $7.60 $6.20
7 – $5.80 $3.60
2 – – $4.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $59.30 (3-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $89.80 (4-6-3)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2811.30 (3-7-2-12)
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