Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, 3-year-old fillies
Possible overlays Morning line
#1 Storm the Church 12/1
#2 White Lamb 9/2
#4 Guided Wave 8/1
#6 No Saint But Sweet 5/2
#7 Black Magic Mama 7/2
#8 Ride Me Fast 5/1
I wouldn’t be surprised to see any filly but #3 Shadow Queen win this race. So, I’ll use the tote board as a guide, make some good bets at decent odds, and everything should work out in the long run.
Coming off a six-month layoff, #2 White Lamb should be near the front of the pack at the quarter pole. On July 5 at Arlington Park, White Lamb was bet to 6-to-5 in a 10 horse field and she flashed early speed before fading, however jockey Rene Douglas merely breezed her from the eighth pole to the wire.
The median Beyer Speed Figure to win this race is an 80, and trainer Jeff Mullins runner #6 No Saint But Sweet earned a 79 Beyer in her Dec. 7 debut. She broke slowly and came running late that day. Mullins also sends out first-timer #1 Storm the Church, who will have no-name jockey Pedro Arambula aboard, and she has several good workouts that make her a good bet at the right price.
On New Year’s Day, Mullins won with a hidden entry horse named Jaylo’s Mark at 10-to-1. She was running for the second time while Mullins’ first-time starter Katie G. finished seventh at 11-to-1.
Also debuting in this race is #8 Ride Me Fast. Although owner Mike Pegram hasn’t historically done well with this type, if Ride Me Fast gets some betting action then she’ll fit the profile of winning Bob Baffert first timers.
Finally, #4 Guided Wave broke slowly in her first race before making a decent run and she could wake up. And trainer Doug O’Neill must think highly of #7 Black Magic Mama because she ran in both the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies and the Hollywood Starlet. Today, she cuts back to a sprint, but I’d like her more if they were going 6-1/2 or 7 furlongs.
I will bet $200 on #8 Ride Me Fast from 7/2 to 9/1, but just $100 if her post time odds drift up to between 10/1 and 19/1. I want $150 on #1 Storm the Church at 7/2 to 19/1 and $150 on #2 White Lamb if her post time odds are 2/1 to 6/1.
If White Lamb’s odds fall out of the betting zone — either too high or too low — then I’ll put $150 on #6 No Saint But Sweet at 2/1 or higher.
Note: I also plan to bet the ninth race today, which goes off at 4:38 p.m., but won’t be able to post it until 3:30.