Friday, Del Mar Race 2 — 3:30 pm post time

August 7, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $50K, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo+

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#2 Great Home                              3/1
#4 Temerity                                  5/2
#6 Greely’s Ghost                          12/1

In this seven-horse field, I think #2 Great Home and #4 Temerity have good chances to win at decent odds. On April 29, Great Home was tugging jockey Joel Rosario, which suggests his best distance is probably shorter than the 1-1/16 miles he was running.

Today, trainer Neil Drysdale enters him at this shorter 6-1/2 furlong distance where his lack of speed won’t hurt him and his good late kick fits the winning profile. Great Home has the best last race Beyer Speed Figure, which happens to also be the best Beyer overall.

But Temerity probably ran the best race by any of the runners in here. On Feb. 7, Temerity broke toward the back of the pack in a maiden special weight sprint. On the turn, he came running about seven paths wide and despite the bad trip Temerity still earned an 80 Beyer Speed Figure. Temerity’s race could easily be adjusted to an 88 figuring that he’ll be no wider than the three path today.

As recently as a few years ago, Carla Gaines had one of the highest win percentages with second-time starters. She hasn’t been as successful with these types recently, but #6 Greely’s Ghost looks like the type that could improve dramatically enough to win.

Greely’s Ghost is moving down in class and has at least one quick workout. I’ll like him more if he gets betting action.

I am hoping that the public pounds #5 Loyal Son, who ran an 81 Beyer on July 5. This gelding, who is 5-to-2 on the morning line, hugged the rail that day and had a good trip.

It is difficult for me to separate Great Home and Temerity. But trainer Ron Ellis has had much more success in sprints than Neil Drysdale, so I am leaning toward Temerity.

Anyway, my plan is to bet $250 Temerity at 2/1 to 7/2. But if Temerity is bet outside the zone then instead I will bet $200 on Great Home at 2/1 or more.

Also, if Greely’s Ghost is between 5/1 and 9/1, then I will put $100 on him.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , . 1 Comment »

Thursday, Del Mar Race 8 — 5:30 pm post time

August 6, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#2 Happy Hands                                 20/1
#3 Action Call                                      6/1
#5 Halmish Hy                                      8/1
#7 Zagora’s Pride                                 15/1
#10 Purse Luva                                    6/1
#11 Cardiff Giant                                  9/2

The gate appears full for this one with 14 fillies scheduled to made the 5-1/2 furlong trip.

The fastest demonstrated speed out of the gate goes to #3 Action Call, but she is trying maidens for the seventh time. Another contender is the Caesar Dominquez-trained #10 Purse Luva, who is dropping and adding blinkers for her second start and that’s a powerful one-two punch.

I won’t hesitate to bet many of the debuters in here if their prices are right. For various reasons, I like #2 Happy Hands, #5 Halmish Hy, #7 Zagora’s Pride and #11 Cardiff Giant.

I will bet $150 to win on #3 Action Call at 4/1 or more and $150 to win on #10 Purse Luva at 3/1 or better.

Also, I will place $150 wagers on any of these fillies at 10/1 to 19/1 only: #2 Happy Hands, #5 Halmish Hy, #7 Zagora’s Pride and #11 Cardiff Giant.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , . 2 Comments »

Thursday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

August 6, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-year-old fillies

Possible overlays                      Morning line

#1 Bye Bye Hollywood                 12/1
#12 Action Gal                            3/1

The only filly that really sticks out here is #12 Action Gal. But second-timer #1 Bye Bye Hollywood is interesting because she almost won a 4-1/2 furlong race from an outside post position — which is nearly impossible.

Action Gal, a Mike Machowsky trainee, showed the best early speed of any of these in her debut race on Opening Day at Del Mar. In that race, Action Gal raced a distant second to Punctual before she faded to third.

She is the type of second-time starter that has run well in the past, but she may get caught wide breaking from the far outside post.

One of the three first-timers in the race may win, but I can’t bet any of them. And the third second-time starter — #5 Whatusaywhatusmean — looks hopeless. 

But Bye Bye Hollywood may run huge. Breaking from post #8 on May 21, Bye Bye Hollywood was caught 3-wide on the turn but still surged to the front in deep stretch before being passed by Lovers House. Also, trainer David La Croix has proven himself over the years with horses making their second lifetime start for owner Meadowbrook Farms.

I plan on betting $150 to win on #12 Action Gal at 5/2 and up and $100 on #1 Bye Bye Hollywood at 6/1 and higher.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . 1 Comment »

Results, Del Mar Wednesday Race 6 — won $1,005

August 6, 2009 — maidenking

ist2_580792-money-hat[1]The experienced runners in this 12-horse field all looked weak considering that the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for the class was 59 and the best Beyer any of these could muster was just a 44.

I took a long look at the three-first time starters and saw that #2 Storm Needed, #3 Private Valentine and #9 Royalty Gone Wild all had positive betting angles going for them.

However, I wanted to see some betting action on Storm Needed and she went off at 16-to-1, which was well above my maximum post time odds of 8-to-1. Conversely, I was interested in Washington-bred Private Valentine only at 10/1 to 19/1, but she was surprisingly bet down to just 5-to-1.

I liked Royalty Gone Wild at anywhere from 7/2 up to 19/1, but planned to bump my bet from $150 to $200 if she was at least 10/1.

During the race, longshot #6 Giveme Tat Ting dueled with second-time starter #1 Escape Plan until the top of the stretch when Private Valentine surged to the leaders. Royalty Gone Wild ran near the back of the pack then came like an express train in the stretch to win by 6 lengths.

The only drawback with Royalty Gone Wild winning was that her odds were only 7/1, so I had just $150 on her instead of $200. Anyway, I ended up profiting $1,005 after subtracting out $300 which includes $150 on #10 Sheskey, a 7/1 shot who showed speed in her last.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Escape Plan (KY) Talamo J Koriner B 4.20 3
2 2 Storm Needed (CA) Baze M Gaines C 16.20 9
3 3 Private Valentine (WA) Sorenson D Yakteen T 5.80 4
4 4 Bookdmyoceancruise (CA) Valdez F Fulmer D 74.50 10
5 5 Clear Imagine (KY) Arambula P DeLeon R 22.40 7
6 6 Giveme Tat Ting (CA) Delgadillo A Solis W 20.40 8
7 7 Fifty K (CA) Kaenel K Polanco M 65.20 11
8 8 Lena Miss (KY) Atkinson P Stute M 72.80 12
9 9 Royalty Gone Wild (CA) Santiago Reyes C Sadler J 7.70 1
10 10 Sheskey (KY) Quinonez A Gonzalez S 7.30 6
11 11 Rose S. (WA) Pedroza M Harrington M 15.30 5
12 12 Goldeneh Medina (CA) Espinoza V Kruljac J 1.70 2
SCR – Chatty Lula (CA)     – –
SCR – Deceptively (FL)     – –
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $17.40 $7.00 $4.20
12 – $3.20 $2.60
1 – – $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $25.30 (9-12)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $130.30 (1-3-9)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $530.00 (9-12-1-3)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $101.00 (9-12-1)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $61.80 (3-9)
$2.00 Quinella paid $22.80 (9-12)
Fractional Times
22.89, 47.10, 59.28, 1:05.42
 
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , . Leave a Comment »

Wednesday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

August 5, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#1 Escape Plan                             4/1
#2 Storm Needed                          8/1
#3 Private Valentine                    10/1
#9 Royalty Gone Wild                 6/1
#10 Sheskey                                5/1

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 59, but none of the fillies in this race has run better than a 44.

Three second-time starters — #1 Escape Plan, #11 Rose S. and #12 Goldeneh Medina — may improve. But I think the three first time starters are better bets.

Owner Harris Farms, who won with debuting 7-to-2 shot John Scott on Sunday, sends out first time runner #2 Storm Needed. And trainer Carla Gaines has a great record when her first timers go off at odds of 3/1 to 9/1.

Carla Gaines, who won with debuter John Scott on Sunday, trains FTS #2 Storm Needed

Carla Gaines, who won with debuter John Scott on Sunday, trains FTS #2 Storm Needed

Another owner that does well with first timers is Tommy Town Thoroughbreds. They’re employing trainer John Sadler today to saddle #9 Royalty Gone Wild. 

It’s curious that #3 Private Valentine shows up at Del Mar. This Washington-bred switched circuits from the Peg. training track, which I’m unfamiliar with. Every now and then one of these outsiders comes to San Diego and lights up the tote in its first lifetime run.

In her second career race on July 16, #10 Sheskey was bet to 3-to-1 in an eight-horse field, and that was despite her low-profile connections. She showed good speed that day and might be a play at proper odds.

I will bet $200 on #2 Storm Needed but only at 3/1 to 9/1 and $150 on #9 Royalty Gone Wild at 7/2 to 9/1. However, if Royalty Gone Wild breaks into the 10/1 to 19/1 zone they I’ll bump my bet on her to $200.

Also, if #3 Private Valentine is 10/1 to 19/1 then I’ll wager $150 to win on her. Finally, if either Storm Needed or Royalty Gone Wild are 10/1 or greater then I’ll put $150 to win on #10 Sheskey at 3/1 or more.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 5 — won $270

August 4, 2009 — maidenking

ist2_5589853-moneytip-jar-series[1]In this race, jockey Garrett Gomez was riding the 9-to-5 morning line favorite #3 Bench the Judge. This colt was making its second start and had performed well in its July 5 debut.

Maybe if Bench the Judge was 5-to-2 or more I would have considered him, but with Gomez it wasn’t difficult to forecast this colt’s minuscule 4-to-5 post time odds. And that made it easy to look elsewhere for the winner.

I had a few possibilities: The owner of #6 Runaway Bandido, Judi Partridge,  won with a couple of debuters from a limited sample and Carla Gaines, the trainer of #5 John Scott, has a good record when her first-timers get betting action.

I also saw a few things to like in other debuters #10 L’Il Charlie Rose, #11 Twenty Hawks and #1A Full Effect. 

I was waiting for odds of 10/1 to 19/1 on #6 Runaway Bandido, #10 Charlie Rose and #11 Twenty Hawks. With a minute to post they were all in the range, so I bet them and #5 John Scott, who fell into my 3/1 to 9/1 parameter.

Runaway Bandido broke toward the back of the back, but came with a huge run in the stretch to briefly hold the lead with 100 yards to go. He almost gave me a giant payoff, as he clicked up to 21-to-1 in the final flash. Of course, I couldn’t have claimed the win on the blog, but real money is OK, too.

However, John Scott’s jockey Victor Espinoza was also hitting the gas in the stretch and that colt outran Runaway Bandido to the wire. Favorite Bench the Judge led at the top of the lane, but faded to third.

I had $150 on John Scott and collected $720, however subtracting out my three $150 wagers left me with only a $270 profit.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Killer Bear (CA) Blanc B Knapp S 37.90 5
3 2 Bench the Judge (KY) Gomez G O’Neill D 0.90 3
4 3 Sammy’s a Runnin’ (CA) Baze M Sherman A 7.70 6
5 4 John Scott (CA) Espinoza V Gaines C 3.80 1
1 5 Zees Echo (CA) Talamo J Harrington M 9.10 8
6 6 Runaway Bandido (CA) Quinonez A Becerra R 21.30 2
9 7 Ministers Power (CA) Kaenel K Bonde J 46.70 7
10 8 L’Il Charlie Rose (CA) Pedroza M O’Neill D 13.90 10
11 9 Twenty Hawks (CA) Baze T Warren D 12.70 4
12 10 Screwball (CA) Delgadillo A Cenicola L 63.40 11
1A 11 Full Effect (CA) Garcia M Harrington M 9.10 9
SCR – A Plus Topper (CA)     – –
SCR – Boldnregent (CA) Atkinson P Stute M – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $9.60 $6.80 $3.80
6 – $16.40 $6.80
3 – – $2.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $73.90 (5-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $265.30 (2-7-5)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1796.20 (5-6-3-11)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $221.30 (5-6-3)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $183.20 (7-5)
$2.00 Quinella paid $116.00 (5-6)
Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 2 — lost $200

August 4, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Pedro Arambula and trainer Silverio Martinez rocked Del Mar with a $30 winner

Jockey Pedro Arambula and trainer Silverio Martinez rocked Del Mar with a $30 winner

I did a couple of things right in this race — like laying off the two Doug O’Neill-trained  horses, #5 Moon Over Malibu and #11 Juicy Lucy. These two fillies, who were 7-to-2 and 4-to-1 respectively, have had many chances to win, are usually bet well and have deteriorating form.

I opted, instead, for #10 Artistryandrhythm who was an 8-to-1 shot coming off a layoff of more than a year. This horse’s trainer, Ron Ellis, has a good record with this type of horse and over the years this angle has been profitable.

Artistryandrhythm bounded out of the gate first, which is always a good sign, but ran in the middle of the pack the rest of the way. I also made one major mistake and that was not taking a closer look at the winner, #6 Classy Attraction.

When I checked the early pace with my software, Classy Attraction had the top speed to the quarter mile, which is another money-making angle. In 2008, she was four lengths behind a 20-3/5 second quarter mile and in another race she had the lead with a 21-3/5 second quarter.

But Classy Attraction hadn’t run since May 2008 and I shied away from his low-profile connections of jockey Pedro Arambula and trainer Silverio Martinez. If she was any good, I thought, why wouldn’t somebody more accomplished be training her?

Others must have overlooked her too, as she wired the field and paid $30.40. In the end,  it looks like Arambula and Martinez got the last laugh.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Aldora (KY) Pedroza M Pender M 2.70 2
2 2 Emba U. T. K. (KY) Stra K Ho H 28.60 6
3 3 Dee Dee’s Flight (CA) Delgadillo A Sierra C 19.90 8
4 4 Dan’s Morning Sky (CA) Kaenel K Fulmer D 80.00 10
5 5 Moon Over Malibu (KY) Baze T O’Neill D 3.80 3
6 6 Classy Attraction (KY) Arambula P Martinez S 14.20 1
7 7 Cisco’s Girl (CA) Scott J Flores F 58.00 11
8 8 With Respect (CA) Blanc B McCarthy S 15.80 4
9 9 Sweet Allie Marie (CA) Rosario J Abrams B 4.70 5
10 10 Artistryandrhythm (CA) Santiago Reyes C Ellis R 8.80 7
11 11 Juicy Lucy (CA) Gryder A O’Neill D 4.00 9
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $30.40 $13.20 $8.20
1 – $4.20 $3.20
5 – – $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $75.90 (6-1)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2928.40 (6-1-5-8)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $325.20 (6-1-5)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $184.80 (3-6)
$2.00 Quinella paid $69.40 (1-6)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Saturday Race 4 — lost $400

August 4, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is part owner of Lions Story, who won Saturday's 4th.

Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is part owner of Lions Story, who won Saturday's 4th.

The best value horse in this race turned out to be #3 Seattle Ruler. He was making his fourth start and his Beyer Speed Figure improved every time he hit the track. Also, Seattle Ruler showed the quickest first quarter mile in his past performances of any of these runners.

At 19/1, I had $100 on him and Seattle Ruler led most of the way, but was no match for #7 Lions Story, who wore him down in the stretch. I also liked #5 Magic Max, who was making his first lifetime start for trainer Bob Baffert.

Magic Max, who fit the profile of a Baffert debut winner, broke slowly but made a quick wide move on the turn. In the stretch, jockey Victor Espinosa didn’t seem to be riding as hard as he was on the turn and Magic Max flattened out at 6-to-1.

The bettors enthusiastically went for second-time starter Lions Story, who was 7-to-5, and #2 Ivory Fudge, whose post time odds were a mere 2-to-1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Worth a Punt (KY) Solis A Zucker H 15.40 6
2 2 Ivory Fudge (KY) Gomez G Sadler J 2.30 4
3 3 Seattle Ruler (KY) Garcia M Harrington M 19.20 2
4 4 Alfarabi (KY) Gryder A Harty E 4.20 3
5 5 Magic Max (FL) Espinoza V Baffert B 6.90 5
6 6 Wayman (KY) Pedroza M Mollica M 30.80 7
7 7 Lions Story (FL) Rosario J Hollendorfer J 1.40 1
8 8 Happy M. B. A. (CA) Stra K Ho H 61.00 8
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $4.80 $3.60 $2.80
3 – $12.20 $6.20
4 – – $3.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $27.50 (7-3)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $11.90 (2-1-7)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $223.00 (7-3-4-2)
Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Saturday Race 3 — lost $150

August 4, 2009 — maidenking
Alex Solis brought 6-to-5 shot #1 Magic Yodeler home for trainer Mike Harrington

Alex Solis brought 6-to-5 shot #1 Magic Yodeler home for trainer Mike Harrington

Many horseplayers believe that when first-time starters are getting heavily bet, then it’s time to also get on board. They think that the insiders — trainers, owners, workout analysts and jockeys — knocked the odds down with huge bets because they saw the debuter train and they know that it can’t lose. 

But that theory couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact, first-time starters going off at 3-to-1 or less are some of the worst bets in the Southern California maiden ranks. They win 20 percent of the time, but return just 66 cents for every $1 wagered.

In this race, the Doug O’Neill-trained #7 High Five Gal was making her first start after scorching the track with fast morning workouts. She was the 9-to-5 morning line favorite and leading rider Joel Rosario was aboard.

In the actual wagering, she wasn’t the favorite, but was still pounded to 8-to-5. High Five Gal ran well to be a game second to #1 Magic Yodeler, who was also no bargain at 6-to-5.

I was prepared to bet Magic Yodeler at 5-to-2 or more, but the betting public laid off second-time starters #2 Siberian Heart and #3 Brianna Marie. So Magic Yodeler’s price was too short.

I ended up with a $150 bet on #5 Whispering Hush at 12-to-1, who finished third.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Magic Yodeler (CA) Solis A Harrington M 1.20 1
2 2 Siberian Heart (CA) Berrio O Stute G 10.00 5
3 3 Brianna Marie (CA) Talamo J Headley B 6.40 4
4 4 Multiplyingtheheat (KY) Atkinson P Stute M 31.60 6
5 5 Whispering Hush (CA) Espinoza V Kruljac J 12.70 3
6 6 Warren’s Hot Tide (CA) Baze M Gutierrez J 41.30 7
7 7 High Five Gal (CA) Rosario J O’Neill D 1.60 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $4.40 $2.40 $2.20
7 – $2.60 $2.60
5 – – $3.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $4.60 (1-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $30.00 (5-2-1)
$1.00 Trifecta
Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Sunday, Del Mar Race 5 — 4 pm post time

August 2, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden special weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 year olds

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#5 John Scott                           4/1
#6 Runaway Bandido                 20/1
#10 L’il Charlie Rose                   20/1
#11 Twenty Hawks                    8/1
#1A Full Effect                          7/2

The 9-to-5 morning line favorite #3 Bench the Judge ran well on July 5 when he finished third in a race where the second-place horse, Lion’s Story, came back to win on Saturday. He’s legitimate, but with Garrett Gomez riding, Bench the Judge will almost certainly be overbet.

Therefore, I will look to one of the first time starters to run a monster race. Carla Gaines trains #5 John Scott and she wins with a large percentage of debuters that go off at less than 8/1. So, it appears that this barn bets the good ones.

Judi Partridge owns #6 Runaway Bandido. She won with two of her last three first-time starters, and they were both trained by Rafael Becerra.

It’s possible that trainer Doug O’Neill may be sitting on a good one with #10 L’Il Charlie Rose. O’Neill will also saddle Bench the Judge and I’ve seen this scenerio played out all too many times. The trainer puts two horses in the race and they both run well, but the longer price defeats the chalk.

Also, trainer Mike Harrington is dangerous when he both owns and trains a Swiss Yodler 2-year-old. No doubt, Harrington has an excellent record first time out with these types, but most of the winners came at 4-1/2 furlongs. 

Finally, #11 Twenty Hawks is a good bet if the price is right.

At 10/1 to 19/1, I will bet $150 to win on #6 Runaway Bandido, #10 L’Il Charlie Rose and #11 Twenty Hawks. At 3/1 to 9/1, I’ll put $150 on #5 John Scott.

I won’t bet #1A if he’s still part of the entry with #1 Zees Echo. But if Zees Echo is scratched, then I’ll bet $150 on 1A Full Effect at 10/1 to 19/1.

Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . 1 Comment »

Sunday, Del Mar Race 2 — 2:30 pm post time

August 2, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, F

Possible overlays                      Morning line

#10 Artistryandrythm                 6/1

This race looks weak for the level, as the median winning Beyer Speed Figure is 67, yet few horses in the field have run recent races in the 60’s. Yes, trainer Doug O’Neill starts two runners, but #5 Moon Over Malibu lost his last five sprints at less than 4-to-1, and #11 Juicy Lucy was the beaten favorite in her last three.

They are both desperately in need of a win and no doubt have found their correct level — the bottom. Instead of taking another chance on either one of them, I will probably be betting #10 Artistryandrythm, who trainer Ron Ellis is bringing back from a layoff of more than a year.

Over the years, this is the type of horse that hits the winners circle frequently enough to be a long-term money winner for backers. The public is infatuated with Beyer Speed Figures run by recently raced horses and, in general, shies away from those laid up for long periods. To me, that flawed thinking equals $$$.

Trainer Ellis has a good record with this type of animal, and the only thing that concerns me is that most of these layoff winners ran their best after having a race back.

In any event, I will put $200 on #10 Artistryandrhythm at 2/1 to 9/1 only.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , . 1 Comment »

On Opening Day, horses also raced but few noticed

August 1, 2009 — maidenking
Opening Day at Del Mar was part cocktail party, part fashion show. And, oh yeah, horses were running races too.

Opening Day at Del Mar was part cocktail party, part fashion show. And, oh yeah, horses were running races too.

Posted in Uncategorized. Leave a Comment »

Saturday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

August 1, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden special weight, 6 furlongs, 2 year olds

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#2 Ivory Fudge                              3/1
#3 Seattle Ruler                             12/1
#5 Magic Max                                 8/1
#7 Lions Story                                2/1

Bob Baffert trains #5 Magic Max and he looks like the type of first-time starter that Baffert wins with regularly. I expect a decent price even though this horse has win-early breeding and has been working out well.

Two second-time starters, #2 Ivory Fudge and #7 Lions Story, look like good bets also, but only at 5/2 or more. The morning line maker made Lions Story the 2-to-1 favorite and I won’t be backing him if his odds are that low.

Baffert's debuter Magic Max looks like a strong bet today

Baffert's debuter Magic Max looks like a strong bet today

A sleeper in here might be #3 Seattle Ruler. He’s been improving with every race and he ran the quickest opening quarter mile of any of these horses when he raced on June 20.

I want $300 to win on #5 Magic Max at 7/2 to 9/1, but $200 at 10/1 to 19/1. I will also take $200 to win on the higher odds horse between #2 Ivory Fudge and #7 Lions Story, as long as that runner is 5/2 or higher.

Finally, at 8/1 or more I will bet $100 on #3 Seattle Ruler.

Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . 1 Comment »

Saturday, Del Mar Race 3 — 3 pm post time

August 1, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden special weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 year olds, F

 

 Possible overlays                     Morning line

#1 Magic Yodeler                          2/1
#5 Whispering Hush                     10/1

As much as I like #1 Magic Yodeler and #5 Whispering Hush, at the right odds of course,  this race is just as much about playing against what I expect to be overbet first and second time starters.

Breaking on the outside, #7 High Five Gal has been burning up the track in the morning and that equates to heavy betting by the public in the afternoon. High Five Gal is the 9-to-5 morning line favorite and trainer Doug O’Neill is OK with a debuter like this, but overall these horses are some of the worst bets in racing. In fact, 2-year-old msw first time starters bet below 7-to-2 win only 20 percent of the time and bettors get back just 66 cents for every $1 bet. 

The morning line maker pegged both #2 Siberian Heart and #3 Brianna Marie at 4-to-1, but neither of them showed enough in their first races for me to wager on them today.

But first-time starter #5 Whispering Hush could win at a decent price.  She’s been working out slowly, which should help keep the betting dollars off of her.

Also, the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 81 and #1 Magic Yodeler ran a 75 in last May. She has good speed and if the public pounds #7 High Five Gal we might get 5-to-2 on her.

At the window, I will bet $150 to win on #5 Whispering Hush at 10/1 to 19/1 and $200 to win on #1 Magic Yodeler at 5/2 and up.

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