Maiden Special Weight, 5 furlongs, 2-year-old fillies
Possible overlaysMorning line
#1 Ghost Shadow 5/1
#2 Gambling Pokerface 20/1
#3 Magic Yodeler 5/1
#4 Rote 5/1
#5 Necessary Evil 7/2
#6 Mi Sueno 4/1
#7 Lena Miss 20/1
#8 Laura’s Pleasure 8/1
#9 Win for M’lou 9/2
I couldn’t throw anybody out right now.
Why?
Because I think any of the horses can win this race, which has eight first-timers going out of the nine starters. The most likely winner of the debuters is #5 Necessary Evil, who is trained by Doug O’Neill. This filly has three swift workouts showing in her past performances and O’Neill won with four of his last 12 with this type of 2 year old.
The Hollywood Park morning line maker rated six of the eight first timers at odds of between 7-to-2 and 8-to-1. But I think two or three of these fillies will be greater than 10-to-1 and those are the ones that I will wager on.
The one experienced runner is #9 Win for M’lou. She showed some decent speed in her debut.
My bets will be $200 to win on #5 Necessary Evil at 7/2 or more; and $150 to win on any of these horses at 10/1 to 19/1 only: #1 Ghost Shadow, #2 Gambling Pokerface, #3 Magic Yodeler, #4 Rote, #6 Mi Sueno, #7 Lena Miss and #8 Laura’s Pleasure.
If two or fewer of the horses above fall into the betting zone, then I will also bet $200 on #9 Win for M’lou at 5/2 to 7/1 only. But if I’m able to bet three or more of the firsters, then I won’t wager on Win for M’lou at all.
Jockey David Flores rallied in the stretch with #6 Embroiled
Something seemed to be amiss with #1 Extended as she ran down the backstretch. Jockey Joe Talamo had her under restraint as she tracked pace setter #5 Eclipse Syrah.
Extended, who was coming off an 11-month layoff, eased to the lead at the top of the stretch, but then quit badly about a furlong from the wire. Meanwhile, first-time starter #6 Embroiled rallied gamely in the center of the lane at 13-to-1 to mow down Eclipse Syrah.
Embroiled’s trainer, Darrell Vienna, is a cagey conditioner who works his horses out on Santa Anita’s dirt training track. Very few runners use that track and the odds on Vienna’s stock are usually overlaid because handicappers find it difficult to gauge whether the works were good or not.
Extended had a lot of positives going for him, so I bet $400. And lost.
During the 10 minutes leading up to race time, the odds on the winning horse #6 Asanti fluctuated between 5/2 and 4/1.
My plan was to bet $250 on this gray granddaughter of Free House at 2/1 to 7/2 and she seemed to be in the perfect pari-mutuel spot at 3/1 with a minute to post.
But during the race, as Asanti surged from the back of the pack to the lead on the turn, I saw on the live video feed that her odds drastically sank to 3-to-2. Somebody, it seems, hit Asanti late. And they hit her hard.
Unfortunately for the blog, my minimum price was 2/1 so my only live bet was $100 on second-place finisher #4 She’s Very Rare at 7/1.
Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3yo’s & up
Possible overlaysMorning line
#5 Benjamin Z 3/1
#7 Domestic Gold 9/2
#8 Only Be Cause 5/1
#12 Bango 5/1
#13 Candy Coat 8/1
(Note: #5 Benjamin Z was a race day scratch)
Zayat Stables bought #5 Benjamin Z for $950,000 in 2007, but he never hit the board in three maiden special weight starts last year. So today, he’s transferred from Steve Asmussen to Mike Mitchell, who drops him into this spot off of a seven-month vacation.
I’ve seen Mitchell use a similar move before, but he gelded the horse. I plan to look at the changes on Monday to see if the track announces that Benjamin Z is a new gelding.
Both #7 Domestic Gold and #8 Only Be Cause have the right running style for 6-1/2 furlongs, but they’re Beyer Speed Figures are a bit weak as the median winning number for this class is a 77. Only Be Cause was bet to 3-to-1 or less in each of his last five races only to lose them all. Today, jockey Victor Espinoza rides.
I would normally not look to a first-time starter to contend in this type of race, but trainer Clifford Sise is cagey so he may get #13 Candy Coat to run first time out. Candy Coat is owned by Halo Farms, a barn that won with two of their last six debuters since 2006. Finally, #12 Bango wouldn’t need to improve much in his second start to take down the top prize.
Because #5 Benjamin Z was scratched this morning, I revised my bets. I will put $200 to win on the higher-odds horse between #7 Domestic Gold and #8 Only Be Cause.
Also, I want $100 to win on #13 Candy Coat at odds of 5/1 to 14/1 and $150 on #12 Bango at 2/1 to 7/1 only. If both Candy Coat and Bango are out of the betting zone, Then I will put $200 on both Domestic Gold and Only Be Cause as long as they are 5/2 or more.
Only one Hollywood Park maiden sprint today on the synthetic, which is the third race, and it’s difficult to separate any of these horses. The Jay Em Ess Stable entry looks good in this maiden special weight, but it’s 8-to-5 on the morning line.
Also, five of the eight runners lining up are first-time starters and these older debuters are much more difficult to judge than straight 2-year-olds or 3-year-olds.
However, on Memorial Day, Hollywood is running a 10-race card and both the third and final races are for main track maiden sprinters. The 10th looks really interesting, as 14 runners are entered. The group includes layoff horses from Mitchell and Koriner, as well as a recently raced Baffert horse and a Sise debuter.
In the days after Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness Stakes on May 16, several friends and acquaintances wondered how it was humanly possible for me not to bet this sensational filly to win the second jewel of horse racing’s Triple Crown.
One insinuated to me that I must be humbled by selecting against Rachel Alexandra. But I told him that I am proud of myself for developing the discipline to lay off the best horse in the race because her price was too low.
Not many of the horseplayers that I know would do that.
Another critic claimed that I wasn’t giving Rachel Alexandra enough credit. He said she was an obvious standout based on her 20-plus length victory in the May 1 Kentucky Oaks, the subsequent purchase by owner Jess Jackson for $10 million, and jockey Calvin Borel’s decision — made without hesitation — to jump off Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird to ride her.
All over the TV, newspapers and the Internet, horse racing analysts spent the days leading up to the Preakness touting Rachel Alexandra as something special. So, why, why, why, didn’t you bet her, people asked me.
It’s true that Rachel Alexandra looked formidable coming into the race. She had tactical speed, the best last race Beyer Speed Figure, she was working out superbly and was ranked first out of 13 horses on my pace handicapping software printout. Pundits and horseplayers alike were raving about her from Suffolk Downs to Emerald Downs.
But in a post on this site, I took a stance against Rachel Alexandra. I wrote that she was coming back on short rest, she was acclaimating to a new training team, and most importantly that the other jockeys were likely to box her in, keep her wide or bump her around with their mounts to make her trip a miserably difficult one.
It made sense. If owners and trainers were focused on keeping her out of the race by using the underhanded tactics of filling the gate with bad horses, then why wouldn’t jockeys be focused on making Rachel Alexandra lose by “race riding?” Do riders have stronger ethics than trainers or owners?
So, instead of betting Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness, I opted for $200 to win on these three runners #3 Musket Man — who finished third at 11/1, #7 Papa Clem at 14/1, and #9 Pioneerof the Nile at 6/1. Then I put $100 on #11 Take the Points at 18/1.
“I don’t understand,” wrote Jimmy in a comment to this site. “The obvious choices were the top two finishers. It just seemed like a safer investment of $700, instead of a stab to strike it rich.
He went on: “Can you explain why you would not bet the exacta: Rachel Alexandra-Mine That Bird or (to) win on Rachel Alexandra.”
Well, my main reason for not betting Rachel Alexandra was that at 9-to-5 her price had no value. And I almost never bet exactas because the takeout is some 30 percent higher than the win pool and, besides, I’m not that good at figuring out who will finish second.
But what I do have are lots of statistics on Southern California maiden races and I’ve uncovered plenty of money-making angles over the years. Some return $1.50 for every $1 bet, and others more than $2.
However, even when examining the greatest of handicapping angles, whenever I enter <2/1 into the data base filter, the analysis almost always shows the bet to be a money loser. About the only way I would consider betting a horse at less than 2-to-1 is if it’s a Mike Mitchell-trained maiden claimer.
As post time for the Preakness was closing in, I looked up at the tote board and was surprised to see Rachel Alexandra, the 8-to-5 morning line favorite, at 2-to-1. And I started asking myself at what price would I abandon the long shots and put all of my money on her.
I decided that at 3-to-1, I was going to rearrange my bets so I’d have enough on her to break even, but if she clicked up to 7-to-2 or better then I would unload everything on Rachel and forget the others. Instead of drifting up though, her odds dropped to 9-to-5 with a couple of minutes to post and that’s where they stayed.
One of Rachel Alexandra’s backers told me that she was a good bet because he believed she had a 65 percent chance to win the Preakness. But it is very difficult for me to give any horse more than a 40 percent chance to win a race.
I don’t know. Maybe it’s because I was among the 44,186 at Del Mar’s Pacific Classic in 1996 who watched 39-to-1 shot Dare and Go stop Cigar’s record-tying winning streak at 16.
Cigar hadn’t lost a race in two straight years and, of course, like Rachel Alexandra Cigar had a great chance to win his race. But I wasn’t going to take short odds on Cigar either. Instead, Dare and Go looked OK, so I put a few dollars on him and was rewarded with a win payoff of more than $80.
During big racing days like the Derby, Preakness, Belmont and Breeders’ Cup, the racing press greatly influences betting patterns of casual fans who show up in droves. In the recent past, racing writers compared colts like War Emblem, Smarty Jones and Big Brown to Secretariat in the same way that NBA scribes compare Kobe Bryant and LeBron James to Michael Jordan.
But dominating championship athletes like Jordan and Secretariat come around about once in a lifetime, so comparisons seem to always end in disappointment. And even Secretariat, generally considered the greatest modern racehorse of them all, didn’t go undeafeated as you can see by watching the 1973 Whitney Stakes below.
If you’re a horseplayer, what’s bad for the dramatic story line, is good for the wallet. That’s because when War Emblem, Smarty Jones and Big Brown all lost the Belmont Stakes at minuscule odds, whoever had the winner was rewarded with payoffs ranging from $74 to $142.50. Last year, I played three horses against standout Big Brown in the Belmont and cashed for $79 when D’Tara hit the wire first. So, when a celebrity horse looks like it can’t lose, it pays to take a dissenting view then try to beat it with multiple horses.
In the running of the Preakness, Rachel Alexandra was carried wide by Big Drama on the first turn, but got a much better trip than I thought she would. However, she paid just $5.60, which I believe was a fair price, but was in no way an overlay.
In fact, jockey Mike Smith said second-place finisher Mine That Bird, who Smith rode, would have likely won the Preakness had he stayed out of trouble and gotten a clean trip.
So, saying Rachel Alexandra had a 65 percent chance to win sounds extremely optimistic to me.
Furthermore, because Rachel Alexandra paid so little, most of the bettors who cashed tickets on her probably lost all of their Preakness winnings after betting the next two races. So, seriously, is a horse like Rachel Alexandra going to help you make a profit for the month, or the year? It’s doubtful.
Sure, the people who bet Rachel Alexandra say how great she looked and how obvious it was that she’d win the race. But almost all favorites look good, or else they wouldn’t be the favorite.
And if the obvious horse won every race, we’d all be calling our bets in from our boats at the Newport Beach Yacht Club.
Yes, Rachel Alexandra had a great chance to win the Preakness, and she paid a fair price. But I am looking to bet great horses at great prices. And if I can’t find one, then I’ll bet several runners against any type of short-priced horse, even if that means wagering against a great horse.
Because that’s the only way I’ve found to make long-run profits in this game.
It’s been a tough couple of years for the battered-and-bruised sport of kings and finally — finally — in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes filly Rachel Alexandra provided the feel-good story the industry needs to sell racing to mainstream America.
Every year during the 3-year-old classics, industry insiders promote some promising young colt as the next big thing. But not only has no horse won the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978, but in 2006 — and again in 2008 — prominent horses were seriously injured on national television during classic races.
Sadly, the injures suffered by Barbaro in the 2006 Preakness Stakes and by Eight Belles in the 2008 Kentucky Derby led to their deaths. And racing people spent months trying to articulate to the press the dangers of racing horses without being accused of animal cruelty.
Then on Saturday, along came Rachel Alexandra. She beat America’s best colts after some owners schemed against her Preakness entry and some horseplayers thought she couldn’t get the job done. In doing so, she became the first filly to win the Preakness in 85 years.
The wheels were set in motion on May 1 when she romped home in the Kentucky Oaks by 20-1/4 lengths. Current owner Jess Jackson saw the race on TV and two weeks ago paid $10 million for Rachel Alexandra and pointed her to the Preakness Stakes amid much criticism.
But Jackson is a sportsman who relishes a challenge. America yearns for greatness and this filly appears to be the real deal.
In the Preakness, Rachel Alexandra broke from the far outside post #13 and shot straight to the lead. However, Big Drama in post position #1 also ran early and floated Rachel Alexandra out four paths wide on the first turn.
Using the filly’s speed early turned out to be another masterful decision by jockey Calvin Borel, who was the same rider that scooted Mine That Bird up the rail to take the Kentucky Derby from far off the pace.
“I had to let her go,” Borel told the Washington Post. “If I didn’t do that, I’m going to get hung eight or nine [horses] wide.”
Rachel Alexandra, who Borel said did not seem to like the Pimlico surface, took over the lead on the backstretch and never gave it up. At the top of the lane, she was ahead by three lengths, but Mine That Bird, with new jockey Mike Smith aboard, came surging at the wire. However, Mine That Bird’s rally fell a length short.
With the hype that came along with Rachel Alexandra’s huge Oaks victory, the betting public made her the 9-to-5 Preakness favorite, almost expecting to see a tremendous performance. And they were not disappointed.
Personally, I could not wager on her at less than 2-to-1. But then again, I don’t think I’d bet on Secretariat if he was that low either. Hey, you’ve got to have rules in this game or you’ll go broke quickly. Right?
Instead, on this site, I wagered $200 on #3 Musket Man at 11/1, #7 Papa Clem at 14/1 and #9 Pioneer of the Nile at 6/1. Then I bet another $100 on Take the Points at 18/1. The best finisher was Musket Man who missed by 1-1/2 lengths while placing third.
So, now Thoroughbred racing has something genuine to sell America. But just imagine how sweet it would have been if Rachel Alexandra had won the Derby and a filly was going for the Triple Crown at Belmont Park on June 6.
Now, that really would have been a captivating story.
In the May 1 Kentucky Oaks, Rachel Alexandra’s dominating 20-1/4 length victory brought back memories of Secretariat’s 1973 Belmont win.
Being a filly who was training well, she would have been a great value bet at about 6-to-1 had she run in the Kentucky Derby. But the secret is out and at less than 2-to-1 today, she will offer absolutely no value and cannot be bet in the Preakness Stakes.
For the past 15 days, all of the pundits have been raving about Rachel Alexandra’s Oaks. Many dismiss Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird at Pimlico because, they say, he was extremely fortunate to ride the golden rail without being blocked. And he’s unlikely to get a trip as favorable in The Preakness.
Furthermore, experts say that Rachel Alexandra is a special filly who should be able to whip this weak group of 3-year-old colts. But these are the same horse racing pundits that tried to tell us that War Emblem, Smarty Jones and Big Brown were all-time great horses before they earned their stripes by winning the Triple Crown.
The problem with many of these newspaper and television analysts is that they want to be a part of greatness the same way that hometown baseball writers want to see their teams win the World Series. Therefore, they write stories about what they want to see happen and use superlatives to get people excited about the possibilities.
Usually, racing writers are too quick to jump to conclusions. From a betting perspective, it’s great because casual race fans believe they’re betting the second coming of Secretariat, so the money pours in and a horse that should be 5-to-2 goes off at 3-to-5.
This leads to monster payoffs like the 2002 Belmont Stakes when Sarava defeated War Emblem paying a whopping $142.50, and again in the 2004 Belmont when Birdstone outran Smarty Jones to pay $74. In last year’s Belmont, another anointed superhorse named Big Brown succumbed to the unheralded D’Tara, whose backers were rewarded with $79.
But, you say, Rachel Alexandra won the Oaks in a gallop, so how could she possibly lose today? I’m glad you asked.
First of all, she has undergone many changes since the Oaks. She was bought by Stonestreet Stables and transferred from trainer Hal Wiggins to Steve Asmussen. That means she needs to acclimate to a new trainer, groom and new surroundings at Old Hilltop. Also, her recent races have been spaced out by a minimum of 22 days, but now she’s coming back on just 15 days of rest. The one time she ran with only 14 days rest, she suffered one of her three losses.
In the Oaks, Rachel Alexandra did not face much competition and she had one of racing’s easiest trips. She stalked the leader from second place, then pulled away in the stretch.
The tour around Pimlico doesn’t figure to be quite as easy. First, she’s breaking from post number 13, which may cause a wide trip that’s made worse by the track’s tight turns.
And the other riders are likely to make her life difficult by trying to intimidate her. Jockeys may intentionally push her wide on the first turn or box her in at any point in the race. She may get bumped hard by other horses or blocked as she’s looking for running room.
Rachel Alexandra may lose because Borel moves her too quickly into a hot pace or she may finish second because Borel loses too much ground by keeping her wide to avoid trouble.
If handicappers think these scenarios are far fetched, then think back to War Emblem’s loss in the 2002 Belmont shown below. A confirmed front runner, War Emblem got off a bit slowly, was shuffled around, then a wall of horses pinned him on the rail on the backstretch, so he never made the lead until the far turn.
And in the 1997 Santa Anita Derby, Bob Baffert’s Silver Charm gunned to the lead with the D. Wayne Lukas-trained filly Sharp Cat. Silver Charm ran 6 furlongs in 1:09 while running head-to-head with Sharp Cat until she could not take anymore and tired in the stretch. According to my pace software, Silver Charm’s Santa Anita Derby was the fastest run 6 furlongs of any Kentucky Derby prep race in 12 years. I believe Baffert ordered the tactics intentionally to compromise Sharp Cat’s chances.
My opinion of Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird is that his win can be attributed to the rail-skimming ride that Borel gave him. The rail was faster than other parts of the track and he saved tons of ground the whole way. He ran a 105 Beyer Speed Figure, which I reduced to 95 because he’s not likely to have the advantages he enjoyed at Churchill Downs.
Watch the overhead video below and you’ll be amazed how Borel slips through tightest of cracks with Mine That Bird while never being blocked.
In the Derby, Pioneerof the Nile, Musket Man and Papa Clem all ran decent races while either being wide or bumped around. All three should be in the 5/1 to 10/1 range and they may get better trips, which will give them the necessary energy to pounce on the pace setters in the stretch.
At the window, I will put $200 on Pioneerof the Nile at 4/1 or more; and $200 on both #3 Musket Man and #7 Papa Clem at 7/1 or better. Also, as a long shot, I’ll put $100 on #11 Take the Points at 12/1 or better.
Cal Ripken, Jr. and his friends hit for big money by betting Mine That Bird at Churchill Downs
Sure playing in 2,632 straight major league baseball games was quite a feat, but what’s really impressive about Cal Ripken, Jr. is that he is one of the few horse bettors to hit it big on Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird.
Back in the day, Ripken, Jr. no doubt played winning baseball by using the science behind scouting reports and probabilities, but when it comes to picking the ponies he seemingly puts his money on names, numbers and hunches. But it doesn’t matter because he’s having just as much success hitting winning horses as he had hitting fastballs during his Hall of Fame baseball career.
While doping out the Derby in his Churchill Downs suite on May 2, Ripken connected with so many things about Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird that the horse did everything for Ripken except whinny the melody to the Baltimore Orioles fight song.
Ripken, who regularly attends the Derby with his wife Kelly and their friends, won large sums of money by betting the 50-to-1 shot winner that shocked the horse racing world. According to the Baltimore Sun, a Ripken spokesman named John Maroon confirmed that Ripken and many others in the suite cashed on Mine That Bird.
And when you think about it, Mine That Bird was a standout for Ripken based on three solid hunches.
Ripken played for the Orioles, who are often referred to as “the birds” by baseball announcers and headline writers. Jockey Calvin Borel, who rode the horse, shares Ripken’s first name, and Mine That Bird’s saddle cloth number was #8, which was the same digit Ripken wore on his back while playing in a Major League record 2,632 straight baseball games from 1982-1999.
Yep, it looks like baseball’s Ironman is solid gold at the racetrack.
Jockey Corey Nakatani gunned #11 Repo to the lead to win at 4-1/2 furlongs
In these 4-1/2 furlong 2-year-old maiden races, first-time starters breaking from anything but posts 1-4 are at a tremendous disadvantage.
The gate is so close to the first turn that jockeys in post #5 through #10 need to blast from the gate to the lead. If they gun, but don’t make the lead then often they end up wide and their horse has no energy for the stretch. Also, many of these horses are so young that they haven’t learned to rate well from behind.
In Sunday’s fourth, #11 Repo broke from the #10 post and didn’t leave the gate that well. She was in midpack a few seconds into the race, but then she burst by them all to shoot to the lead as the field moved into the turn. Jockey Corey Nakatani moved Repo to the rail, but with the tremendous use of early energy she was in danger of tiring in the stretch.
But, instead, Repo found a second wind that she used to bound away from the field by four lengths at the wire. It was an impressive victory against a strong post position bias.
My bet in the race was $300 to win on #3 Cougarette, a first-time starter who broke from post position #3 but never got into the race at 7-to-2.
Post position means everything in these 4-1/2 furlong races.
Last Thursday in this same type of race, jockey Rafael Bejarano gunned Track N Attack for the lead out of post position #1. The favorite in the race, Really Uptown, also tried hard for the lead, but was coming from post #6 and when they swang into the turn he was a length behind.
Really Uptown’s jockey Martin Garcia started pushing his horse along early and tried hard all the way to the wire, but couldn’t get within a length of Track N Attack, who won at 6-to-1. But I believe if the post positions were reversed then Really Uptown would have won by a length.
In this race, the best-looking first time starter is #3 Cougarette who will be ridden by Tyler Baze. I will also watch #2 Sam’s Special and #4 Summer Soprano for betting action.
I will bet $300 on any of these three horses — #2 Sam’s Special, #3 Cougarette, and #4 Summer Soprano at 6/1 or less only.
Breaking from the rail, #1 Mum Z is a second-time starter who is adding blinkers for trainer John Shirreffs. The published purchase price is $310,000 and curiously she drops into a $40,000 claiming race after showing brief speed in her debut.
Ral Ayers is taking over the training responsibilities while Jeff Mullins serves out is suspension. Ayers saddles #4 Sweetpea who fits the profile of the type of horse that wins at this class better than any of the other runners. Sweetpea has the right running style and strong Beyer Speed Figures.
Mike Mitchell is unstoppable when his maiden claimers are bet down. Also, according to the Daily Racing Form, Mitchell’s maiden claimers won 27 of their last 76 races for a 15 percent wagering profit. Mitchell’s filly #7 Sindyfromsantacruz is dropping slightly in class after showing early speed in her only two lifetime starts.
At the window, I will bet $300 to win on #7 Sindyfromsantacruz from 3/2 to 5/2. If she does not fall into that range, then I will put $300 on #4 Sweetpea instead at 2/1 or better. Also, if #1 Mum Z’s odds fall between 5/2 and 7/1 then I will bet $150 to win on her regardless of the prices of the other two previously-mentioned horses.
Andrew Beyer, Mike Watchmaker, Steve Haskin and other lesser know pundits across the country spent this week trying to make sense of Mine That Bird’s mind-blowing win in the May 2 Kentucky Derby.
They cite jockey Calvin Borel, the rail bias, the sloppy track and Mine That Bird’s new running style where he drops far back early and makes one big run. Haskin even surmises that the gelding had a competitive advantage because he trained in the high altitude at Sunland Park in New Mexico.
But of all the theories out there, the most logical one is that the rail at Churchill Downs was much faster than the rest of the racetrack.
One reason Mine That Bird’s win was such a shock, is that almost all of the horse selectors in the Daily Racing Form and on NBC television pick their horses the same way. Predominately, they look at Beyer Speed Figures, class and connections — and Mine The Bird scored absurdly low in all three.
Newspaper and television analysts influence the public, especially on Derby Day. I have often wondered if any of these analyst make serious money betting horses over the long term. In the past, I assumed that they did, but now I think they are simply authors and personalities who talk about racing.
It was widely reported that track maintenance sealed the track and it was causing the inside part to play quicker than other parts of the running surface.
Alexandra Pitts, a Virginia breeder and owner who I talked with on Twitter, told me that she attended the Derby and walked on the backstretch of the Churchill Downs track during the week, and the only part her feet didn’t sink into was near the rail.
Overall, most handicappers put little weight into new information, like the changing conditions that the rain caused on Derby Day. But I am sure that successful horseplayers are out there that took the sealed track into serious consideration and made huge profits.
I am not one of them.
In the future, it will be helpful to Kentucky Derby viewers if NBC Sports broadens its Kentucky Derby telecasting crew to include proven successful horse bettors who are more qualified to analyze late-breaking information from a wagering perspective.
In the same way CNBC talks to stock traders throughout the day, NBC Sports could challenge these winning bettors to point out important wagering information — preferably not pulled from the pages of the Daily Racing Form — that viewers might be overlooking.
On NBC’s telecast, Hank Goldberg, Randy Moss and Gary Stevens provided horse racing commentary. Goldberg is OK, but nobody can convince me that he makes money betting horses. His strength is that he’s an experienced on-air personality. And Gary Stevens is an ex-jockey who is an informative, insightful host, but again, not a winning horseplayer.
Finally, Randy Moss is a former newspaper reporter and ESPN host who is now making Moss Pace Figures for the Daily Racing Form. Maybe he wins money on horses and maybe he doesn’t.
What the Kentucky Derby pre-race telecast needs is some fresh blood and new ideas, so that a racing result like Mine That Bird’s does not come as such a shock. Maybe cut to professional bettors like Jimmy “The Hat” Allard of Los Angeles, Ca. or Mike Maloney of Lexington, Ky. for five minutes. These guys bet millions of dollars a year on horses and I’m sure they’d provide insights based on sound logic that others ignored.
For instance, the Kentucky Derby telecast could have gone more like this: Goldberg runs down the race and gives out his usual low-priced runner. Then the telecast cuts to three different professional horse bettors on a split screen who are challenged to come up with logically-based opinions.
About 20 minutes before the Derby, a handicapper might have said something like this.
“Folks, the track maintenance crew has had the track sealed up all week, which is common practice to allow the water to drain off quicker. Sometimes, this causes the inside portion of the running surface to become much firmer, while the outside lanes remain soft.
“If this is the case today, horses on the inside will run without their feet sinking in the mud while the others on the outside could be bogged down in the slower going. This would be like running a race for human milers with the inside portion of the track being made of concrete, while the rest is a sandy beach.
“Today, if the rail is the place to be. We should ask ourselves which horses and jockeys are most likely to take advantage of it, and what odds do we need to compensate for the risk of being wrong?”
Of course, any speed horse breaking from the inside would have been one possibility, and another would have been any jockey who seemed to notice the bias and steered his mounts toward the rail during earlier races on the Churchill card.
But one obvious horse would have been whoever jockey Calvin Borel was riding. He, of course, has made his living on the rail. He feeds his family by riding the rail, makes his car payment that way, and pays his mortgage on only one part of the track — the rail. He always has. And whether there is a bias or not Borel looks to come up the fence first, and goes outside second.
If Mine That Bird winning the Kentucky Derby teaches us anything about betting the horses, it should be this: that past performances are simply a blueprint and to cash big tickets bettors need to open their minds to see the race differently than almost everyone else sees it.
After 50-to-1 shot Mine That Bird crossed the finish line first to win the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, horseplayers took a second look at his past performances and were perplexed at how such a lowly-looking beast could win America’s greatest horse race.
Many bettors have been wondering ever since how anybody could wager on a runner who looked like Mine That Bird.
Yes, Mine That Bird had decent enough breeding being out of Birdstone, who was a Belmont Stakes winner and is the son of Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone. But his Beyer Speed Figures were extremely low, his trainer won only one race for the year and the gelding broke his maiden in a $62,500 claiming race.
For some, it’s a real head scratcher. But for others — those who really hit it big — Mine That Bird’s win was one of the best things that every happened to them.
Two players at Station Casinos reaped rich rewards by doing no handicapping at all. Instead, they played lucky numbers and made spontaneous wagers using their intuition.
At the Green Valley Ranch casino just outside of Las Vegas, a guy in his 30’s made bets minutes before the race and cashed out for $57,030, and at Santa Fe Station a Las Vegas car salesman turned a five-horse $1 superfecta box, which totaled of $120, into a $278,500 payday.
On Tuesday, a race & sports book employee at Green Valley Ranch told me that a bettor came up to the counter with his girlfriend just before post time for the Kentucky Derby. With an overflow crowd in the book and excitement in the air, he asked what was going on.
“The Kentucky Derby’s about ready to start,” the employee said.
“Can I still bet it?” the man asked.
He was told that he could, and as the horses approached the gate, the bettor looked up at the odds board and said he wanted $100 to win on both #8 (Mine That Bird) and #15 (Dunkirk). Then he said he wanted a $50 exacta #8 with #16 (Pioneerof the Nile).
He was asked if he was sure he didn’t mean 8-15 and not 8-16 because he bet both #8 and #15 to win. The bettor said to just leave it 8-16.
Mine That Bird shot up the rail to dominate the Derby and Pioneerof the Nile won a three-way photo for second. The winner paid $103.20 and the $2 exacta was $2,074.80.
After the race, GVR’s staff told the player that he just won big. He was asking how much, but they really didn’t want to speculate. The writer ran the tickets through the betting machine and the winner was dumbfounded when the number $57,030 lit up on the screen.
“When he found out he just won $55,000 he dropped to his knees in front of the counter,” the GVR worker told me.
At Santa Fe Station, the bettor who won the $278,500 jackpot told Gaming Today that he just bet on lucky numbers, was not a regular horseplayer and spent no time handicapping the race.
He was bought for just $9,500 as a yearling back in 2007 and he broke his maiden in a claiming race. This gelding never ran better than an 81 Beyer Speed Figure and his trainer had just one victory all year.
But 50-to-1 shot Mine That Bird shocked the world by riding a likely biased rail on the rain soaked Churchill Downs track to a 6-3/4-length victory in the Kentucky Derby. He paid $103.20.
Jockey Calvin Borel took Mine That Bird some 20 lengths off the pace and came up the fence, which is the riding style the jockey is noted for. In the stretch, Mine That Bird shot through a hole on the inside just as announcer Tom Durkin was strongly calling out that one of the favorites was now leading the pack. “Pioneerof the Nile strikes the front just outside of the eighth pole,” Durkin said as pace setter Join in the Dance was fading.
As Mine that Bird was expanding his three length lead over 18 others in midstretch, Durkin paused momentarily — probably to figure out exactly what was going on and to look twice at this unexpected longshot that was dominating the Kentucky Derby.
As Mine The Bird crossed the finish line Durkin seemed to be laughing in disbelief. “A spectacular, spectacular upset. Mine That Bird has won the Kentucky Derby — an impossible result here,” Durkin called to the world as Borel began his celebration.
The Derby winner was making his third start off a four-month layoff and maybe he matured during that period. But he showed no hint of it during his two most recent races at Sunland Park where he finished second in a $100,000 stakes race on Feb. 28 and fourth in the March 29 $900,000 Sunland Park Derby.
Many of the other Derby horses ran Beyer Speed Figures in the low 100s and mid-to-upper 90’s in their prep races. Mine That Bird looked so inferior that the Daily Racing Form’s Kenny Peck wrote, in essence, that the gelding had no shot and Peck didn’t like Mine That Bird at any price.
“He’s very unlikely to find his way into the trifecta, ” Peck wrote in his analysis, which was an opinion likely shared by many. “Longshot players and those looking to juice up the superfecta will, of course, consider him based solely on the huge price, but it’s difficult to envision a scenario where he plays a major part in the outcome of this race.”
Mine That Bird’s first five races were at Woodbine in Toronto where he was trained by David Cotely and mostly ridden by Chantal Sutherland. He debuted in a maiden special weight sprint then won second time out in a $62,500 claiming race, which was a decent accomplishment for a horse bought as a yearling for less than $10,000.
After breaking his maiden, Mine That Bird rattled off three straight Woodbine stakes wins, two of which were in sprints. For his sixth lifetime start, he was sent to trainer Richard Mandella at Santa Anita for the Breeders Cup where he finished dead last in the Juvenile after never getting within three lenghs of the lead.
Bennie Woolley took over the training after the Breeders’ Cup. Coming into the Derby, Woolley won just one time in 32 starts this year and his operation is so low-profile that Woolley himself drove the pickup truck that hauled the trailer transporting Mine That Bird to the track on the morning of the Derby.
At the betting window, I lost $580 by putting $250 on both #16 Pioneerof the Nile at 6/1 and #15 Dunkirk at 5/1 while also taking $40 stabs with #1 West Side Bernie at 32/1 and #4 Advice at 49/1.
Maiden King 