The Pamplemousse out of SA Derby after vet exam

April 4, 2009 — maidenking

A veterinarian giving a pre-race examination to The Pamplemousse found an issue with the horse and told trainer Julio Canani who scratched the co-favorite from the Santa Anita Derby after consulting with his own vet.

The Pamplemousse was slated to clash with Pioneerof the Nile in a heavily-promoted meeting of two promising Kentucky Derby prospects.

Canani confirmed the scratch to the Los Angeles Times, but refused to give a reason. He did say that the horse is fine and he would discuss the situation over the next couple of days.

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Canani vs. Baffert in the 2009 Santa Anita Derby

April 4, 2009 — maidenking
459694621

Pioneerof the Nile, trained by Bob Baffert, will try to catch Canani's speedster The Pamplemousse in the SA Derby. (Benoit photo)

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Saturday, Santa Anita Race 5 — 2:05 pm post time

April 4, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#3 Canonize                               8/1
#6 Company Tiger                      10/1
#7 Ducane                                 12/1
#8 Vanquest                              3/1
#11 Hidden Blessing                    5/1

Of the 11 colts and geldings running in this race, seven of them are making their first lifetime start.

Many of the first timers have been working out well, but the best potential bets are #3 Canonize, #6 Company Tiger and #11 Hidden Blessing. Both Canonize and Company Tiger are owned by connections that have good records with first-out winners. Jockey Garrett Gomez rides Hidden Blessing and he often finds himself on winning debuters at this class level.  

Of the experienced runners, #8 Vanquest’s second-place finish in his last race was a few points better than the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class. Vanquest ran behind Supreme Summit, who came back to win an  allowance race.

Coming off a seven-month layoff, the Todd Pletcher-trained #7 Ducane is showing a couple of good workouts. The 12-to-1 morning line seems very high to me considering Pletcher has a large following.

At the betting window, I will take $250 to win on #3 Canonize at 7/2 to 19/1; $200 on #11 Hidden Blessing at 7/2 or better and $150 on #6 Company Tiger at 7/2 to 19/1.

If either Canonize or Hidden Blessing fall out of the betting zone, then I will substitute for that horse only a $200 wager on #8 Vanquest at 2/1 or more.

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Saturday, Santa Anita Race 1 — noon post time

April 4, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo fillies

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#2 Sister Derek                                 15/1
#3 Latego Light                                 6/1
#11 Fine Time to Leave                     3/1
#13 Lanie’s Way                                 4/1

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 65, which bodes well for #3 Latego Light who ran a 64 Beyer when she last raced on Feb. 16.

In that February race, Latego Light was going a mile and she came running late with a spirited rally.

Mike Mitchell trains #11 Fine Time to Leave, who is probably much better than she looks. If almost anybody else trained this horse I would want nothing to do with it, but Mitchell won with 24 of his last 66 maiden claimers and anybody who bet them all would be ahead by 24 cents on the dollar. I have to respect that.

When Mitchell’s maiden claimers are live, I noticed, their odds are often bet below 3-to-1, so I will be watching the tote board.

Starting for her third time off of a six-month layoff, #13 Lanie’s Way could win if she improves by a few lengths or if none of the other contenders run their best. Another positive clue with Lanie’s Way would be strong wagering action. Also, first-time starter #2 Sister Derek is OK if the price is right.

If #11 Fine Time to Leave is 5/2 or less, then I will wager $400 to win on her; if she’s 3/1 or 7/2 then just $150; if 4/1 or more than I won’t bet her.

Also, I want $200 to win on #3 Latego Light at 5/2 to 9/1, but only $100 at 10/1 or more.  Finally, I will take $150 to win on #2 Sister Derek at 10/1 to 19/1 only.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. 1 Comment »

Las Vegas bookies make Quality Road Ky Derby favorite

April 3, 2009 — maidenking

quality-road-bcog-foy1

Quality Road, who is coming off back-to-back wins in the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby, is the Kentucky Derby future book favorite at two of Las Vegas most prominent race & sports books.

After opening Quality Road at 200-to-1 several months ago, Wynn Las Vegas slashed the price on the son of Elusive Quality to just 5-to-1 after the colt ran two monster Beyer Speed Figures. Down the street and around the corner at the Las Vegas Hilton, oddsmakers Jay Kornegay, Ed Salmons and Charlie Ludlow are offering up Quality Road at a paltry 4-to-1, according to the last published futures sheets updated at both places on March 30.

The numbers are low, but Quality Road deserves the respect. In the last 15 years, I can’t recall a colt posting back-to-back Beyer Speed Figures exceeding 110 in their two races leading into the Derby. By contrast, last years wonder-horse Big Brown earned just a 106 Beyer in his Florida Derby.

Originally, Quality Road was awarded a 103 Beyer when he defeated Dunkirk in the March 28 Florida Derby, but the Beyer team upgraded it to 111 after further review. In the Feb. 28 Fountain of Youth, Quality Road ran a 113 Beyer.

Quality Road’s Beyer figures are significant because the last six runnings of the Derby were all won by colts who ran less than 110 on the Beyer scale.

By sheer good fortune, I have a ticket on Quality Road, who I bet at 75-to-1 without even knowing who he was. On Dec. 20, I watched Pioneerof the Nile win the Grade I Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park. In the Daily Racing Form, Bob Baffert was quoted before the race as saying that POTN was his Derby horse.

The win virtually ensured that Pioneerof the Nile would have enough earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby gate, and I thought who’s better than Baffert at getting a horse ready to run his eyeballs out on the first Saturday in May.

Of course, I also considered the chance that Baffert’s horse might get injured, but at the time all the talk was about how safe synthetic surfaces were for horses. So after the Cash Call Futurity, I zoomed down to Las Vegas Hilton, but before I got to the window I saw Vic Vivio, who I worked with for years at the Imperial Palace.

Back in 2000, Vivio, who is now a supervisor at Palace Station, got huge odds on Fusaichi Pegasus in the future book and won more than $5,000 when Fu Peg strolled home in the Derby. At the Hilton on Dec. 20, Vivio told me that he had recently bet Quality Road — who I had never heard of at the time — based on the 101 Beyer Speed Figure he earned while breaking his maiden in a sprint on Nov. 29 at Aqueduct. And Quality Road’s odds at the time Vivio got down were 125-to-1.

I figured what the heck? This guy Vivio has been around the horse game for awhile, maybe he learned a thing or two about the ponies. So, along with Pioneerof the Nile at 40-to-1, I also bet Quality Road at 75-to-1.

And as long as Qualilty Road and Pioneerof the Nile get into the Derby gate, I see the futures as an opportunity to turn Kentucky Derby into a positive advantage race for me. So, I plan to wager on other contenders at decent pari-mutel odds because funny things can happen in a 20-horse field with a hundred thousand drunken screaming fans.

But Vivio, who I spoke to a couple of days ago, will absolutely not hedge.

In fact, Quality Road is the only Derby horse Vivio bet, and he likes him so much that he also loaded up on the colt in the pari-mutuel future book exactas.

“I’m just going to root for him to win,” Vivio said.

And, you know what,  he just might.

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SA Derby: The Pamplemousse or Pioneerof the Nile?

April 2, 2009 — maidenking
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With Chantal gone, will NY’s Studart and Davis be celebrated as horse racing’s next hot female jockeys?

April 1, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Chantal Sutherland head back to Canada

Jockey Chantal Sutherland heads back to Canada

After moving to Southern Calfornia in time for last year’s Oak Tree meet, jockey Chantal Sutherland is heading back to Toronto today where she’ll ride at Woodbine Racetrack.

Sutherland, who is slated to ride #4 Speedski in today’s eighth at SA, won 18 of her 154 mounts — or 12 percent — since the winter meet at Santa Anita began on Dec. 26. It’s a fair riding percentage, but Sutherland’s popularity soared far beyond her winning percentage, mainly because of her looks and her part in the “Jockeys” television show.

Sutherland, who was named one of People Magazine’s 100 Most Beautiful People in 2006, is dating jockey Mike Smith and their relationship was the one of the main focuses of “Jockeys,” a recently completed doc-u-drama on the Animal Planet network. Smith will remain riding in Southern California and the two plan to visit each other frequently.

As of March 29, Sutherland is ranked tenth in the jockey standings, but she was by far the most searched for jockey or trainer on the Maiden King website. From December until today, search terms including the name “Chantal Sutherland” were used 686 times all together by people who landed on this site.

And records suggest that many searchers were not looking for information on Sutherland’s riding record, as many terms were “Chantal Sutherland bathing suit,” “Chantal Sutherland pics,” Chantal Sutherland photos,” and “Chantal Sutherland nude.”

By contrast, the next most popular jockey is Joe Talamo who had only nine searches for his name. The most searched for trainer is Peter Eurton who had seven inquiries.

Internet searchers plug terms into search engines like Google and websites are listed that carry related stories. When Internet users click on a website, the owners of the site get a listing of what term was used to get to the site.

With Sutherland leaving the United States, and the television show “Jockeys” looking for a new venue, my choices as the favorites to be the next popular hot female jockeys are New York-based apprentices Jackie Davis and Maylan Studart.

Do you agree? (see below)

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Brazilian Maylan Studart, 20, is now riding at Aqueduct

April 1, 2009 — maidenking

maylan-studart-011

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Jockey Jackie Davis is the daughter of Robbie Davis

April 1, 2009 — maidenking
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Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 6 — lost $300

March 31, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Sal Gonzalez combined with Joel Rosario to win with Ale's Pride

Trainer Sal Gonzalez combined with Joel Rosario to win with Ale's Pride

When the best horse in the race gets the best trip in the race the other runners don’t stand a chance.

Trained by Sal Gonzalez, #2 Ale’s Pride appeared to be the best horse when examining the past performances, as she earned the top two Beyer Speed Figures. But funny things happen at the race track.

However, nothing unusual happened in this race and if horse racing was this easy we’d all be calling our bets in from our boats docked at the Miami Yacht Club.

As the race began, #4 Irridescent Red went to the front while jockey Joel Rosario, riding Ale’s Pride, was content to sit in the middle of the eight-horse field. But entering the turn, Ale’s Pride scraped the paint to  challenge  the leader up the rail as the two dueled until the top of the stretch.

In the lane, Ale’s Pride was strong and Irredescent Red was no match.

I liked Ale’s Pride, but needed 5-to-2. When her post time odds were 8-to-5, I instead bet $150 on both #5 I Can Hear, at 4/1, and #8 Christy’s Bullet, a 9/2 shot.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Ruffled Feathers (CA) Sorenson D Gallagher P 20.80 3
2 2 Ale’s Pride (CA) Rosario J Gonzalez S 1.60 1
3 3 Goal Girl Michele (CA) Stra K Chew M 42.80 5
4 4 Irridescent Red (CA) Talamo J Becerra R 3.10 2
5 5 I Can Hear (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Cassidy J 4.40 4
6 6 Mama Rosa (CA) Bejarano R Abrams B 5.80 6
8 7 Christy’s Bullet (CA) Solis A Dominguez C 4.70 7
SCR – Unusual Counter (CA) Delgadillo A Stute M – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
2 $5.20 $2.80 $2.60
4 – $3.80 $3.20
1 – – $4.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $9.00 (2-4)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $24.00 (8-2-2)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $234.70
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Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 4 — lost $200

March 30, 2009 — maidenking
bob-baffert-hats-at-the-129th-kentucky-derby-weekend

After trying route races, trainer Bob Baffert found that Hurley's Way likes 7 furlongs

On Aug. 15, Hurley’s Way ran sixth in a Del Mar sprint and afterward Bob Baffert claimed him for $100,000. Over the next five months, Baffert raced his new runner in three route races, two of which were in the maiden special weight ranks, but Hurley’s Way never hit the board.

Finally on Jan. 19, Baffert bit the bullet and dropped Hurley’s Way into a 7-furlong maiden $32,000 claiming sprint, and the colt responded by almost winning after an extremely wide trip.

The race must have showed Baffert that his best chance with Hurley’s Way would be in the claiming ranks at 7 furlongs. So, the trainer spent the last few months tuning up his runner, then waited for the racing secretary to write a 7-furlong race for $32,000 claimers.

And like a baseball player waiting for his pitch, when Baffert finally got a fat one down the middle he knocked it for a loop.

When this race began, jockey Joel Rosario took Hurley’s Way to the back of the nine-horse field then made his move by riding the rail on the turn. In the stretch, Hurley’s Way rolled by pace setter #9 Olympic Magic with Rosario giving his mount a couple of swats of the whip 50 yards from the wire just to let the colt know that the race wasn’t over yet.

About the only thing wrong with this whole scenario was that Hurley’s Way’s price dipped below my 2-to-1 minimum acceptable odds. What can I say, but that I’m greedy. Not only do I want the best horse in the race, but I want good odds on him, too.

So, I ended up going to Plan B, which was to forget about my $250 Hurley’s Way bet and put $200 on the longer of #4 Mont La Salle and #9 Olympic Magic. Since Mont La Salle was 7/1, he got the money.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Warren’s Peanut (CA) Hill C Van Berg J 35.00 9
2 2 New York Baby (VA) Talamo J Knapp S 3.10 7
3 3 Class Dismissed (KY) Quinonez A Dunham D 50.60 3
4 4 Mont La Salle (FL) Delgadillo A Garcia V 7.50 8
5 5 Rogue River (CA) Blanc B Pender M 10.20 5
6 6 Late Nite Devil (CA) Garcia M Harty E 57.30 4
7 7 El Diablito (KY) Sorenson D Glatt M 28.10 6
8 8 Hurley’s Way (OH) Rosario J Baffert B 1.60 1
9 9 Olympic Magic (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Ellis R 2.90 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $5.20 $2.80 $2.60
9 – $3.80 $3.20
3 – – $11.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $7.30 (8-9)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $334.40 (1-6-8)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid
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Sunday, Santa Anita Race 6 — 3:05 pm post time

March 29, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                          Morning line

#2 Ale’s Pride                                   5/2
#5 I Can Hear                                  4/1
#8 Christy’s Bullet                             5/1

On paper, the best horse in this race looks like #2 Ale’s Pride, who has the two top Beyer Speed Figures. But horse races aren’t run on paper, they are run on flat screen televisions and inside of computers.

On Feb. 8, Ale’s Pride ran a 90 Beyer Speed Figure after breaking outward at the start and running wide in the stretch. I don’t usually question the speed numbers in the racing form, but this one seems a bit high, as Ale’s Pride never got close to this number in her past.

Regardless, based on her Jan. 9 race she would still have the top overall Beyer of this group. Second-time starters #5 I Can Hear and #8 Christy’s Bullet wouldn’t need to improve much to win.

I adjusted I Can Hear’s Beyer from 69 to 74 when I added points because of her wide trip and the fact that jockey David Flores chose to duck inside to rally rather than staying on the outside where there are fewer distractions.

At the window, I will bet $200 on #2 Ale’s Pride at 5/2 or more. If she is bet below that, then I will instead wager $150 on both #5 I Can Hear and #8 Christy’s Bullet at odds of 3/1 or more.

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Sunday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 2:03 pm post time

March 29, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 7 furlongs, 3 yo’s

Possible overlays                          Morning line

#4 Mont La Salle                                 4/1
#8 Hurley’s Way                                  5/2
#9 Olympic Magic                                3/1

This looks like a three-horse race to me.

The Ronald Ellis-trained #9 Olympic Magic has the best early speed and has been running Beyer numbers in the mid-to-upper 60’s recently.

In his last race, #4 Mont La Salle was wide on both turns while still earning a 65 Beyer Speed Figure, so it seems reasonable that he can run in the low 70’s.

On Jan. 19, #8 Hurley’s Way swung six or seven wide rounding the turn in a 7 furlong sprint. He didn’t have the final gear in the stretch to get by Jazzin Razz that day, but I think Bob Baffert learned something about his horse. After four previous unsuccessful tries at various class levels and distances, I think Baffert decided that Hurley’s Way was a 7-furlong horse that could win a $32,000 claiming race.

Hurley’s Way hasn’t run since Jan. 19, as Baffert’s been tuning him up and he looks to be ready to run a big one.

I will bet $250 on #8 Hurley’s Way at 2/1 or better, but if he’s bet to 9/5 or less then I want $200 on whoever is a longer price between #4 Mont Las Salle and #9 Olympic Magic.

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Champion Alysheba, 25, dies 5 months after homecoming

March 29, 2009 — maidenking

Just five months after returning to Kentucky from breeding in Saudi Arabia, Alysheba was euthanized after injuring a leg.

Alysheba, 25, won the 1987 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes then went on to take the Super Derby, in a year where he as named champion 3-year-old male. In 1987, Alysheba lost the Breeders’ Cup Classic to 1986 Kentucky Derby winner Ferdinand by just a nose, but came back in 1988 to win the Classic by defeating Seeking the Gold.

Afterward, Alysheba was voted 1988 Horse of the Year and he retired with nine Grade 1 stakes victories and $6.6 million in earnings, which was an earnings record at the time.

Alysheba went to the breeding shed and was eventually bought by Saudi King Abdullah, who stood him for the last eight years at Janadria Farm in Saudi Arabia. Last October, King Abdullah announced that he would return Alysheba to the Kentucky Horse Park in Lexington as a gift to Alysheba’s  legion of fans.

But Alysheba had a chronic degenerative spinal condition that led to his instabilty, said Kathy Hopkins, the Kentucky Horse Park’s director of equine operations. He fell in his stall on Friday afternoon and a decision was made to euthanize him, according to the Daily Racing Form.

Below is a tribute to Alysheba from HRTV’s Inside Information series.

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Alysheba tribute (HRTV)

March 28, 2009 — maidenking
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Quality Road breaks track record at Gulfstream Park

March 28, 2009 — maidenking
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Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 10 — won $200

March 28, 2009 — maidenking

cash-pile-royalty-free-stock-photoMaking her second lifetime start, #10 Pedo Veijo sat just off the pace before jockey Chantal Sutherland steered her through a seam at the top of the stretch and the filly sprinted by the leaders.

In her first race on Feb. 27, Pedo Viejo hesitated at the break to lose four lengths, but showed some ability while running. The slow start last time, and subsequently low 59 Beyer Speed Figure, was probably the reason Pedo Viejo was a better price than a similar-looking second time starter in the race, #9 Atta’ Girl.

During my betting, my plan was to make a small wager on the longer of the two between Pedo Viejo and Atta’s Girl, as long as their odds fell in the range of 2/1 to 5/1. But my main bet — the horse I really liked — was #14 Humane.

In her Feb. 5 debut, Humane had a horrible trip, but still almost won the race. On Saturday, she broke in midpack then swooped up six-wide entering the stretch with a major move, but it seemed that jockey Alex Solis was not encouraging her too much so she flattened out.

The best distance for this horse is likely 6-1/2 to 7 furlongs and I am sure she can run a Beyer Speed Figure in the mid-to-high 70s on her best day. This last race will merely darken Humane’s form, which should allow her odds to be a bit better when she finally does win.

At the window, I bet $350 on Humane at 5/1; $50 on speedster #5 Princess Quinn at 87/1 and $150 on the winner, Pedo Viejo at 4/1. I collected $750 after betting $550.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Mary the Princess (CA) Rios J Periban J 53.30 10
2 2 Stellar Day (KY) Bejarano R Kitchingman A 7.00 11
3 3 Hostile Reaction (CA) Stra K Martinez S 97.80 12
4 4 Victoriously (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Sherman A 84.40 4
5 5 Princess Quinn (KY) Couton J Mendoza J 87.00 13
6 6 Lady Bradbury (KY) Talamo J Hess, Jr. R 35.10 2
7 7 Tuaca Parfait (CA) Quinonez A Bernstein D 16.00 5
8 8 Court Ballado (KY) Nakatani C Sherman A 40.40 8
9 9 Atta’ Girl (CA) Espinoza V Walsh K 3.40 3
10 10 Pedo Viejo (KY) Sutherland C Hendricks D 4.00 1
11 11 Evelyn (KY) Delgadillo A Vargas J 46.40 14
12 12 Irish Pepper (CA) Rosario J Sadler J 2.70 7
13 13 Lowtian (CA) Garcia M Velasquez D 54.00 9
14 14 Humane (CA) Solis A Meredith D 5.00 6
 
Pgm Win Place Show
10 $10.00 $6.00 $4.60
6 – $24.60 $12.40
9 – – $3.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $29.90 (4-5-10)
$1.00 Exacta paid $143.90 (10-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $132.40 (4-10-10)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $242.20 (7-4-4/5/7/10/11/13-10)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $10682.90 (10 OF 10)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $0.00 (NO WINNERS)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $891.90 (10-6-9)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $31.20 (10-10)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $12211.40 (6-1/4-7-4-4/5/7/10/11
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $189.40 (6-1/4-7-4-4/5/7/10/11/1
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Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 10 — won $1,570

March 28, 2009 — maidenking

big-pile-of-cashBob Baffert is showing just how deadly he is when he enters two or more horses in a maiden race.

On March 22, Baffert scored with the Irish Gypsy-Mother Ruth exacta when he had three horses running in a maiden special weight sprint. And the prices weren’t too bad either, with Irish Gypsy paying 4-to-1 and Mother Ruth at 5-to-2.

On Saturday, Baffert was back at it. He had both #6 Hard Kisses and #8 Diamond Tags making their second lifetime starts. In her Feb. 22 debut, Hard Kisses finished 1-1/2 lengths behind Saturday’s favorite #3 Shiksa — but she ran a better race that day, as she was bumped at the break and went wide on the turn. Also, Shiksa — who by contrast had a great trip Feb. 22 — is trained by the struggling Patrick Biancone, who has won with just one of his last 47 starters.

Baffert’s other runner, the 9-to-2 shot Diamond Tags, showed a purchase price of $500,000 and was coming off a seven month layoff. 

During the running of the race, Hard Kisses, 5-to-1, sat in third behind pace-setters #2 Ultra Awesome and #7 Gumption. Jockey David Flores shook Hard Kisses up at the top of the lane, she came to the leaders, then took command in midstretch and never surrendered the lead. Diamond Tags lagged in last then rallied strongly to be second, which completed the  $33.50 Baffert exacta.

I had difficulty trying to separate which Baffert horse was stronger, so I let the odds board decide. My plan was to bet $350 on the longer-odds horse — which turned out to be Hard Kisses — and $250 on the other, Diamond Tags.

I collected $2,170 after wagering $600.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Wada Falls (FL) Sutherland C Mullins J 4.60 7
2 2 Ultra Awesome (KY) Bejarano R Yakteen T 7.70 8
3 3 Shiksa (KY) Talamo J Biancone P 3.40 5
4 4 Idontbelievemyeyes (KY) Blanc B Harty E 71.80 6
5 5 Crystal Empire R N (KY) Smith M Walsh K 20.50 9
6 6 Hard Kisses (ON) Flores D Baffert B 5.20 1
7 7 Gumption (KY) Solis A Headley B 3.50 4
8 8 Diamond Tags (KY) Rosario J Baffert B 4.50 2
9 9 Ruby Lane (KY) Espinoza V Capestro P 21.10 3
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $12.40 $5.80 $3.80
8 – $5.40 $4.80
9 – – $8.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $33.50 (6-8)
$1.00 Pick
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Saturday, Santa Anita Race 10 — 5:08 pm post time

March 28, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo fillies

Possible overlays                           Morning line

#5 Princess Quinn                                  30/1
#8 Court Ballado                                    12/1
#9 Atta’ Girl                                           9/2
#10 Pedo Viejo                                       6/1
#14 Humane                                           6/1

Trainer Derek Meredith had a betting coup all set up on Feb. 5. How disappointing it must of been for his barn when a brutally slow break caused it to all fall apart.

Humane, who is #14 in this event, was running in her first lifetime race and there was absolutely no reason for anybody to bet serious money on her. And nobody did, as this horse went off at 23-to-1 and flew completely under the radar.

Humane had many aspects in her profile that sent horseplayers searching elsewhere for the race winner. First of all, Meredith, is a competent but low-profile trainer who has not won a race in 2009 after a handful of tries, and he was blanked in 2008 with all his 18 starters. Secondly, Humane’s jockey Danny Sorenson is a veteran, but he typically wins at only 5 percent annually. Thirdly, Humane showed a purchase price of just $1,000.

Mix all of that with an 11-horse field and you get a monster-priced first time starter that was ready to run. What else could you ask for? 

But who knew?

As the Feb. 5 race began, Humane broke extremely slowly and was seven lengths behind the field, which made it practically impossible for her to win at 6 furlongs.

But Humane quickly got into stride to be at the rear of the leading group as the field swung into the turn. That’s when Sorenson really stepped on the gas and Humane surged four paths wide on the turn, passing fillies like she was on a conveyor belt. The impressive move raised the eyebrows of race caller Trevor Denman who responded: “very slow to start, but look at Humane; has gone from last to first and is just sprinting away from them here.”

Up to that point, Humane had run some 10 lengths (slow start+wide trip) farther than any other horse in the race and she had a two-length lead in the stretch. However, she couldn’t last as Shawnie Ora and A Taco Short ran her down in the stretch. After being tons the best, Humane finished third by two lengths.

Her Beyer Speed Figure was a 59, but with the horrible trip I adjusted it to an 87. It was a monster effort and had Humane broken well and not went so wide she would have won by five lengths, as the median Beyer for that type of race is only 65.

This replay is well worth watching. If you have time, go to www.calracing.com and it’s the eighth race at Santa Anita on Feb. 5.

Anyway, Humane came back on March 8 and showed speed while just 7-to-1 in a maiden special weight race, but she faded. Today she’s listed at 6-to-1 and looks like a good bet.

Others who could get the money if Humane doesn’t run her best today include longshot #5 Princess Quinn who’s had lots of trouble, but has flashed good early speed; first timer #8 Court Ballado, who is trained by Art Sherman who has started two debuters for owner Jack Liebau since 2006 and one of them won on Nov. 18, 2006 at odds of 57-to-1; and second timers, #9 Atta’ Girl and #10 Pedo Viejo, who only need to improve a little bit to win at this class.

I will bet $350 to win on #14 Humane at 2/1 or more; $150 on #8 Court Ballado at 10/1 to 19/1; $50 on #5 Princess Quinn at 15/1 or more; and $150 on the longest of the two horses between #9 Atta’ Girl and #10 Pedo Viejo, provided their odds are between 2/1 and 5/1.

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Saturday, Santa Anita Race 5 — 2:34 pm post time

March 27, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 7 furlongs, 3 yo fillies

Possible overlays                             Morning line

#3 Shiksa                                            7/2
#6 Hard Kisses                                     3/1
#8 Diamond Tags                                  4/1

Here we go again.

Trainer Bob Baffert has two horses entered in here — #6 Hard Kisses and #8 Diamond Tags — and both of them look good.

Hard Kisses, a second-time starter, ran against #3 Shiksa in her debut and although she finished a half length behind Shiksa, she ran a better race. Shiksa, who was also making her first lifetime start, ran an 80 Beyer Speed Figure while rallying to be second by a neck. One big difference is that Shiksa had an excellent trip, breaking well and sitting on the rail throughout the turn.

However, Hard Kisses came out of the far outside stall and was immediately shoved a couple of lanes wider by the horse inside of her at the start. Furthermore, on the turn, Hard Kisses was hung four lanes wide the whole way and still finished within three-quarters of a length of the winner.

With the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class being 80, both of these horses have the qualifications to win today.

Baffert’s other filly, Diamond Tags, is coming off a seven-month layoff and as we saw last Sunday, Baffert is no slouch with layoff horses. Last Sunday, Irish Gypsy beat a maiden special weight field off an eight-month layoff.  

Diamond Tags made her debut on Aug. 10 at Del Mar where she was a bit crowded at the start, stayed on the rail then rallied well into the stretch, running a 65 Beyer. Because of maturity and the Baffert magic, it would be no surprise to see this one Beyer in the 80’s.

Also, Diamond Tags, who is showing a $500,000 purchase price, has two sharp workouts including a bullet versus 60 others that worked 4 furlongs on Feb. 11. Garrett Gomez rode Diamond Tags in her debut, and of the seven Baffert debuters I have listed with Gomez none were bought for less than $230,000. So Gomez only rides the finest of Baffert’s stock.

Today, Rosario is on board as Gomez is riding Dunkirk in the Florida Derby.

On the other hand, Hal Earnhardt, the owner of Hard Kisses, is one of Baffert’s first clients and Baffert makes sure the horses Earnhardt owns win early. With the Irish Gypsy layoff win fresh in people’s minds, Bob may switch things up and win with the recently-raced animal.

In the end, I will put $350 to win on whoever goes off at longer post time odds between #6 Hard Kisses and #8 Diamond Tags, and a $250 win bet on the shorter priced Baffert runner.

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