Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 10 — won $400

August 15, 2009 — maidenking

One%20Hundred%20Dollar%20Bill[1]Last summer, #12 Legend of My Own ran 76 and 73 Beyer Speed Figures in two consecutive maiden special weight races, but then tailed off into the 60’s while racing three times against maiden claimers.

Something was obviously wrong. So, trainer Jeff Mullins gave Legend of My Own eight months off and the gelding responded well by coming back in June to run a 76 Beyer.

Breaking from the outside in Sunday’s race, Legend of My Own was able to avoid trouble from a spill. Alex Solis shot #3 Endless Moon up the inside to the lead, but the gelding went head over heels soon after. Solis’ body tumbled to the ground as the other 10 horses attempted to avoid him.

But #8 Captain Cash slammed into the rolling Endless Moon causing that horse to fall and tossing Aaron Gryder. Luckily, neither of the jockeys were seriously hurt.

As the race continued, longshot #1 Richardminichiello led down the backside, but was overtaken by #10 Afleet Hopetown who took the field to top of the stretch. On the turn, #6 Pinstripe Kid made a move on the inside and Legend of My Own went with him.

In deep stretch, Pinstripe Kid briefly held the lead but succumbed to Legend of My Own, who was just too good.

I bet $300 on Legend of My Own and $200 on Pinstripe Kid. I collected $900 and profited $400.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Richardminichiello (CA) Valdez F Truman E 64.30 8
2 2 Ryland (CA) Garcia M Yakteen T 37.90 6
3 3 Endless Moon (KY) Solis A Lewis L 4.70 11
4 4 Mister Jo Jangles (KY) Kaenel K Fulmer D 60.80 7
6 5 Pinstripe Kid (CA) Santiago Reyes C Morey, Jr. W 4.50 2
8 6 Captain Cash (KY) Gryder A Harty E 10.40 10
9 7 Whizer (CA) Stra K Bradvica L 19.40 4
10 8 Afleet Hopetown (KY) Delgadillo A Capestro P 14.60 3
11 9 Lucky B Lou (CA) Quinonez A Schiewe P 57.90 9
12 10 Legend of My Own (CA) Rosario J Mullins J 2.00 1
14 11 Strong Belief (KY) Baze T West T 3.30 5
SCR – Peeka Buddha (KY)     – –
SCR – Tralee Creek (KY) Arambula P DeLima J – –
SCR – Surprisefor Toulla (CA)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $6.00 $3.20 $2.60
6 – $4.80 $4.00
10 – – $7.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $14.00 (12-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $12.90 (10-6-12)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $177.60 (4-2/3/6/10-4/6-5/7/12/1
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $28318.90 (10 OF 10)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $1537.30 (12-6-10-9-14)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $595.00 (12-6-10-9)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $109.60 (12-6-10)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $15.20 (6-12)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $113.40 (9-3/5-4-2/3/6/10-4/6-5/
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $11540.00 (9-3/5-4-2
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 6 — lost $150

August 15, 2009 — maidenking

Martin Garcia rode the rail to victory Sunday aboard #5 Champagne d'Oro.

Martin Garcia rode the rail to victory Sunday aboard #5 Champagne d'Oro.

Trainer Eric Guillot thought enough of Champagne d’Oro to enter her in both the Cinderella Stakes and the Landaluce off a second-place finish in a maiden race.

In the Cinderella, Champagne d”Oro was in tight at the five-sixteenths pole, but earned a 77 Beyer Speed Figure when she finished third. Considering the median winning Beyer for maiden special weight is just an 81, Champagne d’Oro looked to be a strong contender.

She didn’t disappoint.

From the outset, Champagne d’Oro was ready to run. She broke alertly when the bell rang and eased to the lead on the backstretch with little encouragement from rider Martin Garcia. She knocked heads with first-time starter #10 Stockings on the turn. But even so, Garcia was sitting chilly in the saddle, while jockey Christian Santiago Reyes was riding hard on Stockings.

Once Garcia let loose in the lane, Champagne d’Oro opened up on the field and won easily.

In the race preview, I noted Champagne d’Oro’s potential superiority, but figured her odds would not be high enough. In the end, I bet $150 to win on #9 The Great Atlantic, who did nothing.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Hondo’s Way (KY) Espinoza V Mandella R 18.20 6
2 2 Pure Class (KY) Smith M Sadler J 3.60 5
4 3 Saint Isabelle (KY) Talamo J Puype M 23.90 4
5 4 Champagne d’Oro (KY) Garcia M Guillot E 2.10 1
6 5 Go Ask Alex (KY) Delgadillo A Glenney J 38.20 8
7 6 Softly Singing (KY) Rosario J Hollendorfer J 2.80 2
8 7 Miss Peanut (CA) Stra K Martinez S 61.40 9
9 8 The Great Atlantic (KY) Gryder A Glatt M 6.20 10
10 9 Stockings (KY) Santiago Reyes C Sadler J 13.80 3
11 10 Pulpit Magic (KY) Solis A Dominguez C 20.10 7
SCR – Back Nine Doc (FL)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $6.20 $3.40 $2.80
7 – $4.00 $3.40
10 – – $6.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $12.50 (5-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid
Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Wednesday, Del Mar Race 2 — 2:30 pm post time

August 12, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s +

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#1 Crazy Wager                           4/1
#4 Philly Slew                              7/2
#7 Final Journey                           5/1

In his last race on July 20, #1 Crazy Wager was toward the back of the pack then started his run on the turn. But halfway on the bend, he was extremely wide — maybe in the 10 or 11 path — but still earned a respectable 66 Beyer Speed Figure.

Conservatively, I bumped the figure up to a 76, which just might be good enough to win this race if none of the others throws in a monster effort.

Another who has a shot is #4 Philly Slew, who earned a 73 Beyer on April 22. However, in his last race on July 12, Philly Slew could only muster a 66 Beyer after saving ground all the way on the rail.

The Marty Jones-trained #7 Final Journey may be the best betting proposition. This gelding, who is coming off a long layoff for his second lifetime start, has nothing but slow workouts. With no world beaters in here, it seems like a good spot for Jones to spring a surprise.

I will bet $400 to win on #1 Crazy Wager at 5/2 to 9/1 and $300 to win on #7 Final Journey at 2/1 to 9/1.  At 10/1 or more on either, my bet reduces to $100.

Also, if #1 Crazy Wager goes off at 2/1 or less then I will play $200 on #4 Philly Slew at 3/1 or more instead.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , . 2 Comments »

Results, Del Mar Friday Race 9 — lost $500

August 12, 2009 — maidenking

64_D0F8F8D9_A7ACD_B1186_72000_3BA864B05_large[1]

Trainer Mike Mitchell and owner Desperado Stables cashed on $16.80 winner #6 Wicked Mischief

Sometimes horse racing is just horse racing. But other times it’s more like a poker game.

And nobody’s better at playing the poker side of it than Mike Mitchell. Over the years, Mitchell has made his name as a savvy claiming trainer. And sometimes trainers must drop valuable horses in class for easy wins. If they only dropped the bad ones, then nobody would claim off of them. 

So, in order to sell a horse with problems, other trainers must believe that they are claiming a good runner and getting a great bargain.

In Friday’s $25,000 maiden claimer, Mitchell saddled first-time starter #6 Wicked Mischief. I became curious because somebody, it seemed, spent serious money on this horse as a yearling and now it was being risked for just $25,000. In Wicked Mischief’s past performances, it showed that a winning bidder in 2005 either paid $160,000 for the horse at the Keeneland September auction, or the owners at the time bought it back for that price.

The stud fee alone for sire Distorted Humor is $150,000, which was six times the claiming price for Friday’s race.

Furthermore, Wicked Mischief was a 5-year-old and had yet to run his first race. But somebody was paying years of bills for this gelding, who must have suffered from serious problems at one time.

On the other hand, current owner Desperado Stables could have recently bought this horse privately from the original bidder for $15,000. It’s hard to tell.  

Anyway, Mitchell and the Desperado Stables partners probably concluded that it was unlikely that anybody would take a chance and claim Wicked Mischief. So they ran him in an easy spot.

It was the best of all worlds. This horse’s well-documented problems allowed the connections to cash an easy bet at excellent odds while picking up a purse of more than $11,000. All of this with a horse that was vastly superior to his competition and had little chance of being claimed.

In the race, jockey Joel Rosario took Wicked Mischief to the back of the pack then he made a move 7-wide on the turn toward the leaders. In the stretch, the others were no match.

Wicked Mischief paid $16.80 and nobody dropped a claim.

In my race preview, I liked Wicked Mischief , but only at odds of 3/1 to 6/1. I figured if the horse was live then the stable would be betting. Wicked Mischief opened cold on the board at 12/1 or so then the money gradually came in before he closed at 7/1. I spread a total of $500 on three other horses — #7 Sven Diesel at 4/1, #10 Megillah at 7/2 and #11 Hotsie at 15/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Donthaveatizzy (CA) Baze T Palma H 9.40 7
2 2 Giveitagomate (CA) Kaenel K Kitchingman A 17.80 10
3 3 Bert’s too Kinky (CA) Blanc B McCarthy S 49.80 9
4 4 Classical Bartok (CA) Pedroza M Papaprodromou G 71.70 8
5 5 Born to Cus (CA) Talamo J O’Neill D 12.80 6
6 6 Wicked Mischief (KY) Rosario J Mitchell M 7.40 1
7 7 Sven Diesel (KY) Quinonez A Eurton P 4.20 2
9 8 Fiery Rebel (KY) Gomez G Knapp S 2.20 5
10 9 Megillah (CA) Espinoza V Kruljac J 3.90 3
11 10 Hotsie (FL) Nakatani C Hess, Jr. R 15.60 4
12 11 Warren’s Deputy (CA) Arambula P Gutierrez J 72.80 12
13 12 Worlds Apart (CA) Santiago Reyes C Lewis C 24.90 11
SCR – De Brief Me (CA) Baze M Puype M – –
SCR – Swingin Jim (CA)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $16.80 $8.00 $5.80
7 – $5.60 $4.40
10 – – $4.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $46.10 (6-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $609.10 (6-10-6)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Friday Race 2 — lost $200

August 11, 2009 — maidenking

Alex Solis put #4 Temerity on the lead then cruised to victory

Alex Solis put #4 Temerity on the lead then cruised to victory

It’s obvious that #4 Temerity was a bit better than he looked in the Daily Racing Form, and somebody knew something because he was bet to 7-to-5. Temerity, who dominated wire-to-wire, was dropping in class and was running his fourth race since a long layoff.

The clues were there, as on Feb. 7 Temerity came 7-wide into the stretch to finish third in a maiden special weight race at Santa Anita, yet he still ran an 80 Beyer Speed Figure. Temerity’s speed rating could easily have been adjusted higher to an 88 for the reasonable assumption that he’d get a decent trip.

In fact, Temerity got a dream trip. He set slow fractions as the lone front runner, then wasn’t challenged in the stretch. What more can you ask for?

In the race preview, I suggested that Temerity’s chances at victory were excellent. I also liked #2 Great Home and was hoping bettors saw #5 Loyal Son’s 81 Beyer and pounded his odds.

In his last race on July 5, Loyal Son was aided by an easy rail trip, so the 81 wasn’t as good as it looked. He went off at 7-to-2 and I believed #2 Great Home was a better bet at 9-to-2, as he was cutting back in distance from 1-1/16 miles and dropping from maiden special weight.

In Friday’s race, Great Home trailed then came 5-wide on the turn under jockey Joel Rosario to finish a well-beaten second. However, the Temerity-Great Home exacta paid 8-to-1, which isn’t bad for preferring Great Home over Loyal Son, who finished fifth.

On the site, I bet $200 to win on Great Home.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Feeling Fabulous (KY) Gryder A Ellis R 16.70 4
2 2 Great Home (KY) Rosario J Drysdale N 4.60 2
3 3 Learn the Sport (KY) Espinoza V Abrams B 9.80 3
4 4 Temerity (KY) Solis A Ellis R 1.30 1
5 5 Loyal Son (KY) Baze T Sherman A 3.60 5
6 6 Greely’s Ghost (KY) Talamo J Gaines C 15.60 6
7 7 Oceanor (CA) Santiago Reyes C O’Neill D 5.80 7
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $4.60 $2.80 $2.40
2 – $4.00 $3.00
3 – – $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $9.60 (4-2)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $46.50 (4-2-3)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $65.20 (1-4)
$2.00 Quinella paid $11.80 (2-4)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Thursday Race 8 — won $180

August 11, 2009 — maidenking

1980detrDespite traffic problems in the lane, #10 Purse Luva easily ran by leader #11 Cardiff Giant to win impressively.

Jockey Victor Espinoza broke Purse Luva toward the rear of this 12-horse field, as #3 Action Call, #4 Gilligan and #6 Catch My Tale all dueled for the lead. Coming into the race, trainer Caesar Dominguez dropped Purse Luva in class from maiden $50,000 claimer for his second lifetime start and added blinkers.

As the field toiled in deep stretch, the inflection in race caller Trevor Denman’s seemed to indicate he believed first-time starter #11 Cardiff Giant’s two-length lead would hold. But Purse Luva found running room and came off the rail, which opened Denman’s eyes. He called out: “Now, out of nowhere, Purse Luva. And Purse Luva looking like he just jumped in at the eighth pole. Just goes right on by.”

Cardiff Giant, from the hot Peter Miller barn, was bet to 7-to-2 and ran well but his wide trip likely compromised his finish.

I bet $150 on three horses #10 Purse Luva, at 3/1; #3 Action Call, a 9/1 shot; and debuter #5 Haimish Hy, at 13/1. I collected $630, but only profited $180 after subtracting out the $450 in bets.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Senor Crafty (CA) Kaenel K Alcala J 8.50 5
2 2 Happy Hands (UT) Atkinson P Stute G 44.90 12
3 3 Action Call (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Solis W 9.00 9
4 4 Gilligan (KY) Delgadillo A Stute M 5.50 7
5 5 Haimish Hy (KY) Quinonez A Sherman A 13.70 3
6 6 Catch My Tale (KY) Valdez F Talbot S 24.70 6
7 7 Zagora’s Pride (NM) Santiago Reyes C Gonzalez S 33.20 10
8 8 Straightomidnight (CA) Berrio O Avila A 10.80 11
9 9 Golden Boy Mark (CA) Baze M Pender M 14.60 4
10 10 Purse Luva (KY) Espinoza V Dominguez C 3.20 1
11 11 Cardiff Giant (KY) Baze T Miller P 3.80 2
12 12 Suitcase Simpson (CA) Pedroza M Harrington M 11.90 8
SCR – Ministerfrommiami (CA) Santiago Reyes C Sadler J – –
SCR – Single Prince (CA) Pedroza M DeLima J – –
Pgm Win Place Show
10 $8.40 $4.20 $3.40
11 – $4.80 $4.00
5 – – $8.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $13.60 (10-11)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $98.70 (8-2-10)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $733.50 (7-8-2-10/13/14)
$1.00 Place Pick All paid $5253.00 (8 OF 8)
$1.00 Super High Five paid $16306.40 (10-11-5-9-1)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2517.10 (10-11-5-9)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $219.60 (10-11-5)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $40.80 (2-10)
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $11292.40 (6/8-4/6/13-7-8-2-10/1
$2.00 Pick 6 paid $202.60 (6/8-4/6/13-7-8-2-10/13/
$2.00 Quinella paid $17.00 (10-11)
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Thursday Race 4 — lost $250

August 11, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Tyler Baze settled #6 Deceptively in striking position, then they burst away

Jockey Tyler Baze settled #6 Deceptively in striking position, then they burst away

Breaking from the far outside, #12 Action Gal came flying out of the gate to secure a clear lead down the backstretch. This second-time starter was recommended here after working out well and showing  good speed in her first race.

But even though she had everything her own way, and was a decent price at 5-to-2, Action Gal could not muster the needed stretch kick and was passed late by two horses. The favorite, #6 Deceptively, was dropped in class from $40,000 claiming by trainer Matthew Chew. Jockey Tyler Baze, who always seems to have his maiden sprinters near the early lead, got Deceptively to break sharply and settle a couple of lengths off the lead in fourth.

Deceptively appeared to have tons of horse on the turn and Baze fortunately found a seam to slip through as the filly moved into second place entering the stretch. Once she was let loose in the lane, Deceptively outclassed the field.

Finishing second was another horse I liked. The 7-to-1 shot #1 Bye Bye Hollywood was coming back from a two-month layoff. In her only lifetime start May 21, Bye Bye Hollywood almost did the impossible — winning a 4-1/2 furlong maiden sprint from an outside post. She had a half-a-length lead in a $40,000 claiming race in deep stretch, but couldn’t hold on.

In Thursday’s race, 7-pound apprentice Christian Santiago Reyes kept Bye Bye Hollywood in the middle of the pack early. This filly rode the fence on the turn then came outside for her run, but was second best.

I bet $150 to win on #12 Action Gal and another $100 on Bye Bye Hollywood.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Bye Bye Hollywood (KY) Santiago Reyes C La Croix D 7.50 2
2 2 Chatty Lula (CA) Baze M Solis W 7.50 5
3 3 Obvious Choice (CA) Talamo J Dominguez C 8.80 6
5 4 Whatusaywhatumean (NM) Atkinson P Gonzalez S 49.50 7
6 5 Deceptively (FL) Baze T Chew M 1.70 1
7 6 Don’t Reiterate (KY) Delgadillo A Velasquez D 19.40 4
8 7 Fair Kisses (KY) Arambula P DeLeon R 40.80 8
9 8 Summer Soprano (CA) Berrio O Stute G 40.80 9
10 9 Wait ‘n Sea (CA) Quinonez A O’Neill D 15.30 10
11 10 Outback Melissa (CA) Espinoza V Troeger R 16.60 11
12 11 Action Gal (KY) Pedroza M Machowsky M 2.90 3
SCR – Unbridled Brew (CA)     – –
SCR – A Soft Breeze (FL)     – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $5.40 $3.20 $2.80
1 – $6.60 $4.40
12 – – $2.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $15.30 (6-1)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $55.70 (4-6-6)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $438.50 (6-1-12-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $58.40 (6-1-12)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $16.60 (6-6)
$2.00 Quinella paid $19.40 (1-6)
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Sunday, Del Mar Race 10 — 6:30 pm post time

August 9, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#3 Endless Moon                      5/1
#6 Pinstripe Kid                        5/1
#8 Captain Cash                       6/1
#12 Legend of My Own              7/2
#14 Strong Belief                      9/2

This race has a few possible winners and #12 Legend of My Own looks like a strong play at 2-to-1 or more.

This 4-year-old gelding, who is trained by Jeff Mullins, is making his eighth start and his fourth at this class. But on June 27, Legend of My Own came off an eight-month layoff  to rally powerfully in a 6-furlong race. He not only has the right running style for this distance, but Legend of My Own also ran a series of Beyer Speed Figures last summer that are fast enough to win this.

A couple of stall doors down, #14 Strong Belief was competitive with Legend of My Own on June 27 when the two were separated by less than a length. However, jockey Christian Santiago Reyes jumps from Strong Belief to ride #6 Pinstripe Kid.

It’s possible Pinstripe Kid is far better than he looks. This gelding ran a 68 Beyer as a 2-year-old last summer and it’s logical that his natural growth  allows him to run in the low 80s now.

Another coming off a long layoff is #8 Captain Cash. Trained by Eoin Harty, this horse has been working out well and showed speed before dumping the jock in his last race in November.

Finally, #3 Endless Moon is a second-time starter that is dropping in class after not disgracing himself in a turf sprint.

I rank the horses this way: #12 Legend of My Own, #6 Pinstripe Kid, #14 Strong Belief, #3 Endless Moon and #8 Captain Cash.

I will bet $300 to win on #12 Legend of My Own at 2/1 to 7/2 only, and $200 on #6 Pinstripe Kid at 2/1 to 9/1. If Legend of My Own drifts to 4/1 to 9/1, then I’ll reduce my wager to $200. If either of them are less than 2/1, then I will replace that individual horse with $150 to win on #14 Strong Belief at 3/1 to 9/1,  or if that one isn’t in the zone then I’ll play $150 on #3 Endless Moon at 5/2 to 7/1.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Sunday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

August 8, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-yo fillies

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#4 Saint Isabelle                         10/1
#5 Champagne d’Oro                    3/1
#9 The Great Atlantic                   5/1
#11 Pulpit Magic                          15/1

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is an 81 and #5 Champagne d”Oro ran a 76 and 77 in two of her three lifetime races.  Her last two runs were in the Cinderella Stakes on June 11 and the Landaluce on July 12, so this is a bit of a class drop.

This filly may win, but I expect her odds will be too low for a bet.

Of the five first-time starters scheduled to go, #4 Saint Isabelle is the best bet, but only if the price is right.

One horse who will likely be a bad wager is the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained #7 Softly Singing. No doubt this filly has been working out ultra impressively and her past performances are loaded with speedy drills and bullet works. The problem is that the public loves this type of first-time starter and she is almost certain to be bet below 7-to-2.

She will probably hit the board and even if she wins, Softly Singing’s odds won’t compensate for the risk.  The public will also probably overbet #2 Pure Class for the same reasons they like Softly Singing.

Five of these fillies have racing experience and #5 The Great Atlantic showed quick early speed in her first race on July 26. She could win at a decent price.

Finally, #11 Public Magic, a second time starter, has an outside shot if bet below 20/1.

I will put $200 to win on #4 Saint Isabelle at 7/2 to 19/1, I want $150 to win on #9 The Great Atlantic at 7/2 and up and $100 on #11 Pulpit Magic at 5/2 to 19/1.

Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Friday, Del Mar Race 9 — 7 pm post time

August 7, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#1 Donthaveatizzy                         10/1
#5 Born to Cus                               8/1
#6 Wicked Mischief                         8/1
#7 Sven Diesel                               8/1
#9 Fiery Rebel                                7/2
#10 Megillah                                   9/2
#11 Hotsie                                      8/1

This race has many possible winners and I will be paying close attention to the odds board for further clues.

The horse who has the best past performances is #9 Fiery Rebel.  On June 19, he was wide on the turn, so I adjusted his 72 Beyer Speed Figure to 76. then on July 3, Fiery Rebel shot to a 2-1/2 length lead down the backstretch and kept that margin into the stretch in a 7-furlong race, only to lose by a nose at the wire. He still ran an 80 Beyer and if the race was a half a furlong shorter, his speed figure likely would have been better. Jockey Felipe Valdez, who went too wide on June 19 then too fast too early on July 3, is being replaced today by Garrett Gomez — a huge upgrade.

One training move Robert Hess seems to excel at is bringing maiden claimers off layoffs. He saddles #11 Hotsie and I will like this son of Flame Thrower more if the betting action is hot. 

However, jockey Victor Espinoza jumps off Hotsie to ride #10 Megillah. This Erik Kruljac trainee ran two credible races in the Spring at Santa Anita and is coming off a four-month layoff. My figures scream at me not to bet this horse, but in the Daily Racing Form I see that Kruljac won with six of his last 20 runners who were off from 61-180 days. And the average payoff for those runners was 7-to-2. Also, Kruljac and Espinoza won with nine of their last 36 and anybody who bet them all would be have gotten $1.76 for every $1 wagered.

One of the quickest horses in the race is #5 Born to Cus. I am throwing his last race out as jockey Joel Rosario took him to the lead then merely breezed him from the turn to the wire. On May 22, this 3-year-old showed good speed in a 7-furlong race before tiring, then on June 21 he came with a nice 4-wide rally. Today’s 6 furlong distance fits this gelding’s running style and, although he’s never run better than a 68, I believe Born to Cus can run a low-to-mid 70’s Beyer Speed Figure.

The key to the rail horse, #1 Donthaveatizzy — a second-time starter who has been laid off for a year — will be his post time odds. If Donthaveatizzy is 10-to-1 or higher I don’t think he’ll run well. But he’s dangerous if bet to 2/1 to 7/2 and has an outside chance at 4/1 to 9/1.

Finally, two first time starters deserve a long look. The first is #6 Wicked Mischief, whose listed purchase price at the Keeneland September sale is $160,000. Today, Wicked Mischief is entered for just $25,000, but Rosario is riding this one instead of Born to Cus and trainer Mike Mitchell has a great winning percentage in maiden claiming sprints for older horses.

The second debuter is #7 Sven Diesel. Usually, I would not consider a first time starter in these types of races, but Sven Diesel’s trainer Peter Eurton has won with two first timers in three tries at this class. Larry Zap, who purchases horses with Eurton, wrote today on his Twitter page: “(Sven Diesel is) something to root for and maybe bet a couple $$ on…little guy can run a little.” 

My wagering possibilities are many, so I am ranking my horses in order of preference. So if more than one horse fits into the following betting zones, then I will bet the top three horses in this ranking order #9 Fiery Rebel, #5 Born to Cus, #7 Sven Diesel, #10 Megillah, #11 Hotsie and #6 Wicked Mischief.

If #11 Hotsie is 2/1 to 7/2 then I will bet $200 to win on him, but if he is 4/1 to 9/1 then my bet reduces to $150. At 10/1 and up, I’ll bet just $50.

On #10 Megillah, I will take $150 to win at odds of 3/1 to 8/1 only. As for #9 Fiery Rebel, I want $200 to win at 5/2 and up.

At 4/1 and up, I will take $150 to win on #5 Born to Cus. At 3/1 to 6/1, I will bet $150 on #6 Wicked Mischief and $200 on #7 Sven Diesel at 7/2 to 11/1.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment »

Friday, Del Mar Race 2 — 3:30 pm post time

August 7, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $50K, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo+

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#2 Great Home                              3/1
#4 Temerity                                  5/2
#6 Greely’s Ghost                          12/1

In this seven-horse field, I think #2 Great Home and #4 Temerity have good chances to win at decent odds. On April 29, Great Home was tugging jockey Joel Rosario, which suggests his best distance is probably shorter than the 1-1/16 miles he was running.

Today, trainer Neil Drysdale enters him at this shorter 6-1/2 furlong distance where his lack of speed won’t hurt him and his good late kick fits the winning profile. Great Home has the best last race Beyer Speed Figure, which happens to also be the best Beyer overall.

But Temerity probably ran the best race by any of the runners in here. On Feb. 7, Temerity broke toward the back of the pack in a maiden special weight sprint. On the turn, he came running about seven paths wide and despite the bad trip Temerity still earned an 80 Beyer Speed Figure. Temerity’s race could easily be adjusted to an 88 figuring that he’ll be no wider than the three path today.

As recently as a few years ago, Carla Gaines had one of the highest win percentages with second-time starters. She hasn’t been as successful with these types recently, but #6 Greely’s Ghost looks like the type that could improve dramatically enough to win.

Greely’s Ghost is moving down in class and has at least one quick workout. I’ll like him more if he gets betting action.

I am hoping that the public pounds #5 Loyal Son, who ran an 81 Beyer on July 5. This gelding, who is 5-to-2 on the morning line, hugged the rail that day and had a good trip.

It is difficult for me to separate Great Home and Temerity. But trainer Ron Ellis has had much more success in sprints than Neil Drysdale, so I am leaning toward Temerity.

Anyway, my plan is to bet $250 Temerity at 2/1 to 7/2. But if Temerity is bet outside the zone then instead I will bet $200 on Great Home at 2/1 or more.

Also, if Greely’s Ghost is between 5/1 and 9/1, then I will put $100 on him.

Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , . 1 Comment »

Thursday, Del Mar Race 8 — 5:30 pm post time

August 6, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#2 Happy Hands                                 20/1
#3 Action Call                                      6/1
#5 Halmish Hy                                      8/1
#7 Zagora’s Pride                                 15/1
#10 Purse Luva                                    6/1
#11 Cardiff Giant                                  9/2

The gate appears full for this one with 14 fillies scheduled to made the 5-1/2 furlong trip.

The fastest demonstrated speed out of the gate goes to #3 Action Call, but she is trying maidens for the seventh time. Another contender is the Caesar Dominquez-trained #10 Purse Luva, who is dropping and adding blinkers for her second start and that’s a powerful one-two punch.

I won’t hesitate to bet many of the debuters in here if their prices are right. For various reasons, I like #2 Happy Hands, #5 Halmish Hy, #7 Zagora’s Pride and #11 Cardiff Giant.

I will bet $150 to win on #3 Action Call at 4/1 or more and $150 to win on #10 Purse Luva at 3/1 or better.

Also, I will place $150 wagers on any of these fillies at 10/1 to 19/1 only: #2 Happy Hands, #5 Halmish Hy, #7 Zagora’s Pride and #11 Cardiff Giant.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , . 2 Comments »

Thursday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

August 6, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-year-old fillies

Possible overlays                      Morning line

#1 Bye Bye Hollywood                 12/1
#12 Action Gal                            3/1

The only filly that really sticks out here is #12 Action Gal. But second-timer #1 Bye Bye Hollywood is interesting because she almost won a 4-1/2 furlong race from an outside post position — which is nearly impossible.

Action Gal, a Mike Machowsky trainee, showed the best early speed of any of these in her debut race on Opening Day at Del Mar. In that race, Action Gal raced a distant second to Punctual before she faded to third.

She is the type of second-time starter that has run well in the past, but she may get caught wide breaking from the far outside post.

One of the three first-timers in the race may win, but I can’t bet any of them. And the third second-time starter — #5 Whatusaywhatusmean — looks hopeless. 

But Bye Bye Hollywood may run huge. Breaking from post #8 on May 21, Bye Bye Hollywood was caught 3-wide on the turn but still surged to the front in deep stretch before being passed by Lovers House. Also, trainer David La Croix has proven himself over the years with horses making their second lifetime start for owner Meadowbrook Farms.

I plan on betting $150 to win on #12 Action Gal at 5/2 and up and $100 on #1 Bye Bye Hollywood at 6/1 and higher.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . 1 Comment »

Results, Del Mar Wednesday Race 6 — won $1,005

August 6, 2009 — maidenking

ist2_580792-money-hat[1]The experienced runners in this 12-horse field all looked weak considering that the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for the class was 59 and the best Beyer any of these could muster was just a 44.

I took a long look at the three-first time starters and saw that #2 Storm Needed, #3 Private Valentine and #9 Royalty Gone Wild all had positive betting angles going for them.

However, I wanted to see some betting action on Storm Needed and she went off at 16-to-1, which was well above my maximum post time odds of 8-to-1. Conversely, I was interested in Washington-bred Private Valentine only at 10/1 to 19/1, but she was surprisingly bet down to just 5-to-1.

I liked Royalty Gone Wild at anywhere from 7/2 up to 19/1, but planned to bump my bet from $150 to $200 if she was at least 10/1.

During the race, longshot #6 Giveme Tat Ting dueled with second-time starter #1 Escape Plan until the top of the stretch when Private Valentine surged to the leaders. Royalty Gone Wild ran near the back of the pack then came like an express train in the stretch to win by 6 lengths.

The only drawback with Royalty Gone Wild winning was that her odds were only 7/1, so I had just $150 on her instead of $200. Anyway, I ended up profiting $1,005 after subtracting out $300 which includes $150 on #10 Sheskey, a 7/1 shot who showed speed in her last.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Escape Plan (KY) Talamo J Koriner B 4.20 3
2 2 Storm Needed (CA) Baze M Gaines C 16.20 9
3 3 Private Valentine (WA) Sorenson D Yakteen T 5.80 4
4 4 Bookdmyoceancruise (CA) Valdez F Fulmer D 74.50 10
5 5 Clear Imagine (KY) Arambula P DeLeon R 22.40 7
6 6 Giveme Tat Ting (CA) Delgadillo A Solis W 20.40 8
7 7 Fifty K (CA) Kaenel K Polanco M 65.20 11
8 8 Lena Miss (KY) Atkinson P Stute M 72.80 12
9 9 Royalty Gone Wild (CA) Santiago Reyes C Sadler J 7.70 1
10 10 Sheskey (KY) Quinonez A Gonzalez S 7.30 6
11 11 Rose S. (WA) Pedroza M Harrington M 15.30 5
12 12 Goldeneh Medina (CA) Espinoza V Kruljac J 1.70 2
SCR – Chatty Lula (CA)     – –
SCR – Deceptively (FL)     – –
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $17.40 $7.00 $4.20
12 – $3.20 $2.60
1 – – $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $25.30 (9-12)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $130.30 (1-3-9)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $530.00 (9-12-1-3)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $101.00 (9-12-1)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $61.80 (3-9)
$2.00 Quinella paid $22.80 (9-12)
Fractional Times
22.89, 47.10, 59.28, 1:05.42
 
Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , . Leave a Comment »

Wednesday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

August 5, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#1 Escape Plan                             4/1
#2 Storm Needed                          8/1
#3 Private Valentine                    10/1
#9 Royalty Gone Wild                 6/1
#10 Sheskey                                5/1

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 59, but none of the fillies in this race has run better than a 44.

Three second-time starters — #1 Escape Plan, #11 Rose S. and #12 Goldeneh Medina — may improve. But I think the three first time starters are better bets.

Owner Harris Farms, who won with debuting 7-to-2 shot John Scott on Sunday, sends out first time runner #2 Storm Needed. And trainer Carla Gaines has a great record when her first timers go off at odds of 3/1 to 9/1.

Carla Gaines, who won with debuter John Scott on Sunday, trains FTS #2 Storm Needed

Carla Gaines, who won with debuter John Scott on Sunday, trains FTS #2 Storm Needed

Another owner that does well with first timers is Tommy Town Thoroughbreds. They’re employing trainer John Sadler today to saddle #9 Royalty Gone Wild. 

It’s curious that #3 Private Valentine shows up at Del Mar. This Washington-bred switched circuits from the Peg. training track, which I’m unfamiliar with. Every now and then one of these outsiders comes to San Diego and lights up the tote in its first lifetime run.

In her second career race on July 16, #10 Sheskey was bet to 3-to-1 in an eight-horse field, and that was despite her low-profile connections. She showed good speed that day and might be a play at proper odds.

I will bet $200 on #2 Storm Needed but only at 3/1 to 9/1 and $150 on #9 Royalty Gone Wild at 7/2 to 9/1. However, if Royalty Gone Wild breaks into the 10/1 to 19/1 zone they I’ll bump my bet on her to $200.

Also, if #3 Private Valentine is 10/1 to 19/1 then I’ll wager $150 to win on her. Finally, if either Storm Needed or Royalty Gone Wild are 10/1 or greater then I’ll put $150 to win on #10 Sheskey at 3/1 or more.

Posted in maiden claiming 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 5 — won $270

August 4, 2009 — maidenking

ist2_5589853-moneytip-jar-series[1]In this race, jockey Garrett Gomez was riding the 9-to-5 morning line favorite #3 Bench the Judge. This colt was making its second start and had performed well in its July 5 debut.

Maybe if Bench the Judge was 5-to-2 or more I would have considered him, but with Gomez it wasn’t difficult to forecast this colt’s minuscule 4-to-5 post time odds. And that made it easy to look elsewhere for the winner.

I had a few possibilities: The owner of #6 Runaway Bandido, Judi Partridge,  won with a couple of debuters from a limited sample and Carla Gaines, the trainer of #5 John Scott, has a good record when her first-timers get betting action.

I also saw a few things to like in other debuters #10 L’Il Charlie Rose, #11 Twenty Hawks and #1A Full Effect. 

I was waiting for odds of 10/1 to 19/1 on #6 Runaway Bandido, #10 Charlie Rose and #11 Twenty Hawks. With a minute to post they were all in the range, so I bet them and #5 John Scott, who fell into my 3/1 to 9/1 parameter.

Runaway Bandido broke toward the back of the back, but came with a huge run in the stretch to briefly hold the lead with 100 yards to go. He almost gave me a giant payoff, as he clicked up to 21-to-1 in the final flash. Of course, I couldn’t have claimed the win on the blog, but real money is OK, too.

However, John Scott’s jockey Victor Espinoza was also hitting the gas in the stretch and that colt outran Runaway Bandido to the wire. Favorite Bench the Judge led at the top of the lane, but faded to third.

I had $150 on John Scott and collected $720, however subtracting out my three $150 wagers left me with only a $270 profit.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Killer Bear (CA) Blanc B Knapp S 37.90 5
3 2 Bench the Judge (KY) Gomez G O’Neill D 0.90 3
4 3 Sammy’s a Runnin’ (CA) Baze M Sherman A 7.70 6
5 4 John Scott (CA) Espinoza V Gaines C 3.80 1
1 5 Zees Echo (CA) Talamo J Harrington M 9.10 8
6 6 Runaway Bandido (CA) Quinonez A Becerra R 21.30 2
9 7 Ministers Power (CA) Kaenel K Bonde J 46.70 7
10 8 L’Il Charlie Rose (CA) Pedroza M O’Neill D 13.90 10
11 9 Twenty Hawks (CA) Baze T Warren D 12.70 4
12 10 Screwball (CA) Delgadillo A Cenicola L 63.40 11
1A 11 Full Effect (CA) Garcia M Harrington M 9.10 9
SCR – A Plus Topper (CA)     – –
SCR – Boldnregent (CA) Atkinson P Stute M – –
 
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $9.60 $6.80 $3.80
6 – $16.40 $6.80
3 – – $2.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $73.90 (5-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $265.30 (2-7-5)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1796.20 (5-6-3-11)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $221.30 (5-6-3)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $183.20 (7-5)
$2.00 Quinella paid $116.00 (5-6)
Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 2 — lost $200

August 4, 2009 — maidenking
Jockey Pedro Arambula and trainer Silverio Martinez rocked Del Mar with a $30 winner

Jockey Pedro Arambula and trainer Silverio Martinez rocked Del Mar with a $30 winner

I did a couple of things right in this race — like laying off the two Doug O’Neill-trained  horses, #5 Moon Over Malibu and #11 Juicy Lucy. These two fillies, who were 7-to-2 and 4-to-1 respectively, have had many chances to win, are usually bet well and have deteriorating form.

I opted, instead, for #10 Artistryandrhythm who was an 8-to-1 shot coming off a layoff of more than a year. This horse’s trainer, Ron Ellis, has a good record with this type of horse and over the years this angle has been profitable.

Artistryandrhythm bounded out of the gate first, which is always a good sign, but ran in the middle of the pack the rest of the way. I also made one major mistake and that was not taking a closer look at the winner, #6 Classy Attraction.

When I checked the early pace with my software, Classy Attraction had the top speed to the quarter mile, which is another money-making angle. In 2008, she was four lengths behind a 20-3/5 second quarter mile and in another race she had the lead with a 21-3/5 second quarter.

But Classy Attraction hadn’t run since May 2008 and I shied away from his low-profile connections of jockey Pedro Arambula and trainer Silverio Martinez. If she was any good, I thought, why wouldn’t somebody more accomplished be training her?

Others must have overlooked her too, as she wired the field and paid $30.40. In the end,  it looks like Arambula and Martinez got the last laugh.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Aldora (KY) Pedroza M Pender M 2.70 2
2 2 Emba U. T. K. (KY) Stra K Ho H 28.60 6
3 3 Dee Dee’s Flight (CA) Delgadillo A Sierra C 19.90 8
4 4 Dan’s Morning Sky (CA) Kaenel K Fulmer D 80.00 10
5 5 Moon Over Malibu (KY) Baze T O’Neill D 3.80 3
6 6 Classy Attraction (KY) Arambula P Martinez S 14.20 1
7 7 Cisco’s Girl (CA) Scott J Flores F 58.00 11
8 8 With Respect (CA) Blanc B McCarthy S 15.80 4
9 9 Sweet Allie Marie (CA) Rosario J Abrams B 4.70 5
10 10 Artistryandrhythm (CA) Santiago Reyes C Ellis R 8.80 7
11 11 Juicy Lucy (CA) Gryder A O’Neill D 4.00 9
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $30.40 $13.20 $8.20
1 – $4.20 $3.20
5 – – $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $75.90 (6-1)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2928.40 (6-1-5-8)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $325.20 (6-1-5)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $184.80 (3-6)
$2.00 Quinella paid $69.40 (1-6)
Posted in maiden claiming 3^, 4^. Tags: , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Saturday Race 4 — lost $400

August 4, 2009 — maidenking
Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is part owner of Lions Story, who won Saturday's 4th.

Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is part owner of Lions Story, who won Saturday's 4th.

The best value horse in this race turned out to be #3 Seattle Ruler. He was making his fourth start and his Beyer Speed Figure improved every time he hit the track. Also, Seattle Ruler showed the quickest first quarter mile in his past performances of any of these runners.

At 19/1, I had $100 on him and Seattle Ruler led most of the way, but was no match for #7 Lions Story, who wore him down in the stretch. I also liked #5 Magic Max, who was making his first lifetime start for trainer Bob Baffert.

Magic Max, who fit the profile of a Baffert debut winner, broke slowly but made a quick wide move on the turn. In the stretch, jockey Victor Espinosa didn’t seem to be riding as hard as he was on the turn and Magic Max flattened out at 6-to-1.

The bettors enthusiastically went for second-time starter Lions Story, who was 7-to-5, and #2 Ivory Fudge, whose post time odds were a mere 2-to-1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Worth a Punt (KY) Solis A Zucker H 15.40 6
2 2 Ivory Fudge (KY) Gomez G Sadler J 2.30 4
3 3 Seattle Ruler (KY) Garcia M Harrington M 19.20 2
4 4 Alfarabi (KY) Gryder A Harty E 4.20 3
5 5 Magic Max (FL) Espinoza V Baffert B 6.90 5
6 6 Wayman (KY) Pedroza M Mollica M 30.80 7
7 7 Lions Story (FL) Rosario J Hollendorfer J 1.40 1
8 8 Happy M. B. A. (CA) Stra K Ho H 61.00 8
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $4.80 $3.60 $2.80
3 – $12.20 $6.20
4 – – $3.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $27.50 (7-3)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $11.90 (2-1-7)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $223.00 (7-3-4-2)
Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , . Leave a Comment »

Results, Del Mar Saturday Race 3 — lost $150

August 4, 2009 — maidenking
Alex Solis brought 6-to-5 shot #1 Magic Yodeler home for trainer Mike Harrington

Alex Solis brought 6-to-5 shot #1 Magic Yodeler home for trainer Mike Harrington

Many horseplayers believe that when first-time starters are getting heavily bet, then it’s time to also get on board. They think that the insiders — trainers, owners, workout analysts and jockeys — knocked the odds down with huge bets because they saw the debuter train and they know that it can’t lose. 

But that theory couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact, first-time starters going off at 3-to-1 or less are some of the worst bets in the Southern California maiden ranks. They win 20 percent of the time, but return just 66 cents for every $1 wagered.

In this race, the Doug O’Neill-trained #7 High Five Gal was making her first start after scorching the track with fast morning workouts. She was the 9-to-5 morning line favorite and leading rider Joel Rosario was aboard.

In the actual wagering, she wasn’t the favorite, but was still pounded to 8-to-5. High Five Gal ran well to be a game second to #1 Magic Yodeler, who was also no bargain at 6-to-5.

I was prepared to bet Magic Yodeler at 5-to-2 or more, but the betting public laid off second-time starters #2 Siberian Heart and #3 Brianna Marie. So Magic Yodeler’s price was too short.

I ended up with a $150 bet on #5 Whispering Hush at 12-to-1, who finished third.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Magic Yodeler (CA) Solis A Harrington M 1.20 1
2 2 Siberian Heart (CA) Berrio O Stute G 10.00 5
3 3 Brianna Marie (CA) Talamo J Headley B 6.40 4
4 4 Multiplyingtheheat (KY) Atkinson P Stute M 31.60 6
5 5 Whispering Hush (CA) Espinoza V Kruljac J 12.70 3
6 6 Warren’s Hot Tide (CA) Baze M Gutierrez J 41.30 7
7 7 High Five Gal (CA) Rosario J O’Neill D 1.60 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $4.40 $2.40 $2.20
7 – $2.60 $2.60
5 – – $3.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $4.60 (1-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $30.00 (5-2-1)
$1.00 Trifecta
Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Sunday, Del Mar Race 5 — 4 pm post time

August 2, 2009 — maidenking
Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden special weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 year olds

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#5 John Scott                           4/1
#6 Runaway Bandido                 20/1
#10 L’il Charlie Rose                   20/1
#11 Twenty Hawks                    8/1
#1A Full Effect                          7/2

The 9-to-5 morning line favorite #3 Bench the Judge ran well on July 5 when he finished third in a race where the second-place horse, Lion’s Story, came back to win on Saturday. He’s legitimate, but with Garrett Gomez riding, Bench the Judge will almost certainly be overbet.

Therefore, I will look to one of the first time starters to run a monster race. Carla Gaines trains #5 John Scott and she wins with a large percentage of debuters that go off at less than 8/1. So, it appears that this barn bets the good ones.

Judi Partridge owns #6 Runaway Bandido. She won with two of her last three first-time starters, and they were both trained by Rafael Becerra.

It’s possible that trainer Doug O’Neill may be sitting on a good one with #10 L’Il Charlie Rose. O’Neill will also saddle Bench the Judge and I’ve seen this scenerio played out all too many times. The trainer puts two horses in the race and they both run well, but the longer price defeats the chalk.

Also, trainer Mike Harrington is dangerous when he both owns and trains a Swiss Yodler 2-year-old. No doubt, Harrington has an excellent record first time out with these types, but most of the winners came at 4-1/2 furlongs. 

Finally, #11 Twenty Hawks is a good bet if the price is right.

At 10/1 to 19/1, I will bet $150 to win on #6 Runaway Bandido, #10 L’Il Charlie Rose and #11 Twenty Hawks. At 3/1 to 9/1, I’ll put $150 on #5 John Scott.

I won’t bet #1A if he’s still part of the entry with #1 Zees Echo. But if Zees Echo is scratched, then I’ll bet $150 on 1A Full Effect at 10/1 to 19/1.

Posted in msw, 2s & 3s. Tags: , , , , . 1 Comment »
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