Maiden King

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 4-yo’s and up, f&m

Possible overlays                              Morning line

#3 Raise Again                                          4/1
#4 Secret Potion                                       5/2
#6 Connie the Queen                                 4/1
#7 Black Point                                          15/1
#8 Natpolean                                            3/1

Coming off a recent long layoff has been a great money-making move for trainer Rafael Becerra in this type of race. In 2008, he did it three times: the first, on March 14 paying $23.60,  then on April 24 at $10, and the third time on Oct. 3 paying $15 . In 2007, it was Becerra again with the same move on Jan. 24 paying $19.20 and on Aug. 30 at $19.80.

Today, he has #3 Raise Again who ran OK at the level in Spring 2007 and can run the 65-70 Beyer Speed Figure necessary to win. Breaking beside her will be #4 Secret Potion, who ran a 57 Beyer in her debut for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer before he shipped her south from Golden Gate Fields.

Connie the Queen, #6, is another off a long layoff. She last ran July 16 in a Suffolk Downs turf race at 1-mile and 70 yards. In addition to traveling to lowly Suffolk, this mare’s seven races included stops at Aqueduct, Belmont, Saratoga, the Meadowlands and Finger Lakes.

If she gets bet, I will like her more.

It seemed to me that jockey Victor Espinoza steadied #8 Natpolean at the break during her first race on Nov. 29. She trailed for most of the way, but got more involved the next time she ran on Dec. 20. Her trainer Patrick Gallagher does better, I believe, with horses that have had at least two starts.

I will bet $300 on #3 Raise Again at 2/1 to 7/2, but only $200 if she drifts to 4/1 or higher.

 Also, if #3 Connie the Queen is 2/1 to 7/2, then I’ll bet $100 to win on her, and I’ll put $150 on #4 Secret Potion at 3/1 to 7/1 only.

This horse seemed to be moving like a tremendous machine. 

Waddup G obviously stood out in this 12-horse field as she eased to the lead while four-wide on the turn and pulled away to win by 6-1/4 official lengths.

The Doug O’Neill trainee was dropping into this low level claiming sprint from maiden special weight where she showed speed in three routes. Although she never got close to winning those races, she still ran the two best Beyer Speed Figures of this group.

Sure, sometimes they don’t reproduce the Beyers, but this time the class showed.

I was prepared to wager $150 on #12 Waddup G at 2-to-1, but she went into the gate at 9-to-5 and stayed there. Others I was watching included second timer #13 Shawnie Ora and #5 Tan Tan, a first-timer. But their prices drifted out of my odds ranges, so I couldn’t bet them either.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com 

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-old fillies

Possible overlays                              Morning line

#5 Tan Tan                                               20/1
#12 Waddup G                                           5/2
#13 Shawnie Ora                                       12/1

I probably won’t end up playing anything in here.

I got a late start handicapping this one and I am looking at the tote board now. With 15 minutes to post, the favorite #12 Waddup G is 8/5. I like her because she ran a 63 Beyer Speed Figure in a route race, which is just below the median needed to win this race. But I wouldn’t bet her unless she’s at least 2/1.

Second-time starter #13 Shawnie Ora is 7-to-1 on the tote board now, but I’m only interested at 2/1 to 9/2. Also, #5 Tan Tan is an OK bet at 10/1 to 19/1, but she’s 21-to-1.

I’m noticing surprise betting action on #3 It’s Partytime, who is 10-to-1 on the morning line, but the tote board says 7-to-2. She has good early speed, which is much more valuable in shorter sprints than 6-1/2 furlongs.

I will bet $150 on #12 Waddup G at 2/1 or higher, $150 on #13 Shawnie Ora at 2/1 to 9/2, and $100 on #5 Tan Tan at 10/1 to 19/1.

Recently trainer Mike Puype’s been doing an outstanding job with second-time starters coming back from long layoffs. On Wednesday, Mossad won the fifth race for him, paying $12, and Puype took the first race Friday with second-time starter Ciccina. The 5-to-2 shot hadn’t raced since May 11.

In the eighth, #7 Kafwain’s Belle fit the same profile — a second-time starter trained by Puype coming off a long layoff. And as it was rallying up the rail to grab the money at 5-to-1, it dawned on me that a trend may be developing here. Now, I just hope it’s not too late to join the party.

Although, Kafwain’s Belle was bet to 4-to-1 early, I planned to put $200 on her only if she was 2/1 to 7/2 at post time. I also had tight betting ranges for $200 bets on #3 Silent Western — who was bet too low — #10 Eleni Mou and #12 Sally Says So, whose odds were too high.

Anyway, I ended up playing $100 on #11 Ata Honour, at 7-to-1, #12 Sally Says So, 26-to-1, and 7-to-1 shot #13 Saint’s Crown. Sally Says So made a nice run for second while never threatening the winner.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

In a race where it was difficult for me to find potentially profitable angles, the Barry Abrams-trained #1 Too Much Heat got the early lead and seemed to get stronger as the race got longer. 

His only real challenge came from #4 Jacob’s Little Bro who broke slowly, but made a sharp middle move up the rail. Jacob’s Little Bro came within a neck of the lead on the turn, then faded. 

Had he been 10/1, I would have bet Jacob’s Little Bro, but his post-time odds were just 5/1 so I didn’t wager at all.

Abrams is a cancer survivor and partly attributes his success battling the disease to the hope of watching babies run from his sire Unusual Heat.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com 

Maiden claiming $25,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 4-yo’s and up

Possible overlays                              Morning line

#3 Silent Western                                  7/2
#7 Kafwain’s Belle                                  8/1
#10 Eleni Mou                                       20/1
#11 Ata Honour                                      8/1
#12 Sally Says So                                 12/1
#13 Saint’s Crown                                  5/1

I’ll be watching the tote board for clues. If there’s heavy betting on any of three horses coming off layoffs — #7 Kafwain’s Belle, #10 Eleni Mou or #12 Sally Says So — then I’m climbing on board, too.

I believe jockey Jon Court on #13 Saints Crown will try for the lead as this mare wasn’t rating well last time, but a wide trip may be that horse’s downfall. And Eleni Mou has better speed than what appears in her past performance lines so I expect her to be right up front, too.

Silent Western, #3, ran a winning race on Dec. 7 as her 70 Beyer Speed Figure is the median needed to win this type of race. Flew First Class ran her down that day, but Silent Western was 2-1/2 lengths clear of third place and she defeated nine other horses. 

I will bet $200 on #7 Kafwain’s Belle, #10 Eleni Mou or #12 Sally Says So at 2/1 to 7/2 only. If #3 Silent Western is 3/1 to 9/2 then I’ll bet $200 on her.

Also, I will bet $100 on any of these scenarios — #3 Silent Western and #11 Ata Honour at 5/1 or more; #12 Sally Says So at 7/1 and above, and #13 Saint’s Crown at 6/1 or better.

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                                  Morning line

#4 Jacob’s Little Bro                                  10/1

Seven colts are running for the first time in this eight-horse field of California breds.

Debuters from the powerful Harris Farms stable tend to run well when bet below 10/1 and #6 Vaundell is the 5/2 morning line choice. Howard Zucker trains #2 Charlie and Chris, who has a couple of fast workouts. Blogger Mary Forney watched Charlie and Chris school in the paddock recently and was impressed with him. 

I plan to stay out of this race for the most part. At the window, I will wager $150 on Jacob’s Little Bro at 10/1 to 19/1.