Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 3 — 2 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 3+up, f & m

Possible overlays                           Morning line

#6 Wild Heart                                    5/2

In her March 12 debut, #6 Wild Heart broke slowly, but made an impressive move at the leaders entering the turn. On that day, she was going against maiden special weight runners and jockey Jesus Rios put the brakes on as Wild Heart was within a half length of the leaders. 

She quickly fell back and ended up losing the race by more than nine lengths. Today, she is facing a weaker bunch and should be able to run the 70 Beyer Speed Figure necessary to win this type of race.

You might wonder why trainer Bob Baffert is using jockey Rios if Wild Heart is really ready to win. I believe that if Wild Heart is right, she’ll get the lead and never look back, so Rios will have an easy trip.

Also, I think Baffert’s barn likes to bet and Rios will help the odds stay reasonable.

The most likely challengers to Wild Heart are second-timers #1 Crystal Empire R N and #5 Youknowwhatilike.  Also, the John Sadler-trained #9 I Swear was bet below 7-to-2 both times she ran, so I am hoping bettors like her again in this race.

In the end, Hall of Famer Baffert will probably win another. Therefore, I will bet $300 on #6 Wild Heart at 2/1 or more.

Gomez leaning toward Dunkirk, it seems, for Derby mount

Trainer Bob Baffert won Sunday's seventh with #9 Irish Gypsy, owned by Mike Pegram. (Flickr photo by Yausser)

Will Garrett Gomez ride Pioneerof the Nile for Baffert in the Ky Derby?

Dunkirk or Pioneerof the Nile?

Hmm.

Pioneerof the Nile or Dunkirk?

Those are the thoughts that will be going through jockey Garrett Gomez’ head this weekend as he decides which horse to ride in the May 2 Kentucky Derby.

Gomez said on his NTRA blog Thursday that the decision is a tough one because he has good relationships with both trainers — Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert — and both owners. But on Sunday, he will pick either Dunkirk or Pioneerof the Nile.

And after reading the complete NTRA blog entry, Gomez seems to be leaning toward Dunkirk.

Gomez’ blog delves into the pros and cons of each horse. In the Florida Derby, Gomez was impressed by the strong move Dunkirk made on Quality Road. He also noted that Dunkirk galloped out ahead of Quality Road after the wire.

“I don’t think a mile and a quarter will be a problem with him at all,” Gomez wrote.

He describes Pioneerof the Nile as more of a head case, who doesn’t run hard when he makes the lead.

“He hasn’t really done anything wrong when I’ve ridden him in the afternoons, but in a couple of races on him I’ve been a little uncomfortable because the simple fact is, I know there’s more to him,” Gomez wrote. “When he makes the lead, he has pulled up a little bit in a few of his races, and it feels like you’ve got a target on your back and somebody’s gonna come and nail you.”

Baffert to pitch Gomez camp Friday to ride ‘Pioneer’

Bob Baffert will try to secure services of Garrett Gomez on Friday

Bob Baffert will try to secure services of Garrett Gomez on Friday

Over the years, Bob Baffert has trained horses for some of the richest, most successful owners in the business.

When it comes to training their stock, these owners don’t just pick names out of a hat. Many of them got rich by operating large companies and by seeking out and hiring the very best people.

I’m sure over the years, Baffert has learned to use his confident, yet reasonable demeanor to persuade owners that he is a better choice to run their stables than, say, Bobby Frankel, Richard Mandella or John Sadler.   

And it’s those very sales skills that Baffert needs to draw on Friday in Lexington when he tries to convince Garrett Gomez’ camp to choose to ride Pioneerof the Nile over Dunkirk in the Kentucky Derby. On Monday, Gomez’ agent Ron Anderson and Baffert exchanged several telephone calls and finally agreed to meet in Lexington Friday to discuss whether Gomez will ride Pioneerof the Nile or not, according to the Daily Racing Form.

Baffert was going to Kentucky anyway to saddle Mythical Power in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. Over the years, Baffert and Anderson have done lots of business together, as Anderson’s former client Gary Stevens rode Silver Charm and many other Baffert notables.

But the Gomez-Anderson team also has a great relationship with Dunkirk’s trainer Todd Pletcher, who they have ridden many stakes winners for, too. Furthermore, Dunkirk ran a 108 Beyer Speed Figure in the Florida Derby on a dirt track, while Pioneerof the Nile has never cracked 100 in eight tries — all on either synthetic surfaces or grass.

There’s a lot at stake on this decision for Baffert because Gomez knows Pioneerof the Nile, having ridden him to four straight graded stakes victories. Baffert likes veteran jockeys on his best horses and right now nobody is better than Gomez, who won the Eclipse Award as the nation’s top jockey for the last two years.

Everyone knows that it’s late in the game, so many of the leading riders are committed to Derby horses. If Anderson and Gomez snub Baffert and choose Dunkirk, then who will Baffert turn to?

John Velasquez is riding Quality Road, Rafael Bejarano is on Papa Clem and Joel Rosario will be aboard Chocolate Candy. Maybe Edgar Prado will be the choice, as his mount Imperial Council will not run in the Derby. Or Baffert may pick David Flores, who he’s had luck with in the past.

Baffert will probably try to sell Anderson on his great record in the 3-year-old Classic races over the last decade or so. And it’s true, Baffert’s been the best: Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Congaree, Point Given and War Emblem, for the most part, all ran their eyeballs out in the Triple Crown series.

The Gomez camp will have to make their decision based not only on the Derby, but the Preakness and Belmont as well. Anderson and Gomez will look silly if they chose wrong and watch either Dunkirk or Pioneerof the Nile win while they’re riding the other horse.

Baffert, a finalist for racing’s Hall of Fame, is no doubt a great trainer.

But on Friday he also needs to be a great pitchman.

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 6 — won $1,060

a-money-roll It’s got to be frustrating for the other trainers racing against Bob Baffert with maiden special weight sprinters. Baffert continues to dominate these races and the other guys are left fighting for the few crumbs that Bob leaves behind.

Depending on whether Baffert has two horses in the race, sometimes the other trainers can’t even get second money, as Baffert’s horses often finish 1-2.

Baffert saddled #8 Ride Me Fast, who showed brilliant speed on March 4 while tracking a 44 second half mile. In her debut race Jan. 11, the filly ran a 77 Beyer Speed Figure that proved she could win at this level.

As the race began, Baffert’s other entry #2 Belated Bid rushed up on the inside to knock heads with #7 Gumption on the backstretch. Jockey Tyler Baze reserved Ride Me Fast a length off the lead then eased to the front while 3-wide on the turn.

And once Baze got Ride Me Fast rolling in the homestretch nobody got within a length of her to the finish.

I bet $400 on #8 Ride Me Fast and collected $1,960. But I also spread another $500 in the race by betting $100 on #2 Belated Bid at 25/1, $150 on first-timer Bread ‘n Water at 12/1, and $250 on #3 First Grade at 9/2, who was also debuting.  

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Bread ‘n Water (KY) Nakatani C Dollase C 12.00 4
2 2 Belated Bid (KY) Rosario J Baffert B 25.70 10
3 3 First Grade (KY) Bejarano R Hollendorfer J 4.60 3
4 4 She’s Borracho (KY) Talamo J Mullins J 2.40 2
5 5 Guided Wave (KY) Solis A Gallagher P 15.90 8
6 6 Alphabet Cat (CA) Flores D Moreno H 30.80 7
7 7 Gumption (KY) Smith M Headley B 3.80 6
8 8 Ride Me Fast (KY) Baze T Baffert B 3.90 1
9 9 Running After Boys (CA) Espinoza V Kitchingman A 15.30 9
10 10 Lion Princess (KY) Rios J West T 24.50 5
 
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $9.80 $4.80 $3.20
4 $3.80 $2.80
3 $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $17.60 (8-4)
$1.

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 2 — won $1,375

at-pawn-shops-the-cash-strapped-trade-in-memoriesAlthough he didn’t look like much in the Daily Racing Form, #5 My Man Sumo outclassed this field while dominating the race from start to finish.

It was a tremendous training job by the underrated Rafael Becerra, who does good work bringing maidens off layoffs. He took My Man Sumo over from Wesley Ward after the gelding had run three unspectacular races last summer at Del Mar and Fairplex.

My Man Sumo, who last ran on Sept. 13, had always shown speed, but couldn’t last. Becerra hid this horse’s talent from horseplayers by working him out slowly, but jockey Alex Solis broke him well from the gate and he was never challenged for the lead, winning by four lengths.

The favorite trained by Mike Mitchell, #4 Morton Owen, made a wide run on the turn then flattened out in the stretch while Bob Baffert’s runner #7 Only Be Cause pushed the pace then came up empty late.

I bet $250 on #5 My Man Sumo and collected $2,025. But I also put $400 on #4 Morton Owen, so I profited a total of $1,375 on the race.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 King Farha (CA) Blanc B Metz J 25.60 5
2 2 Marquet Rebel (KY) Talamo J Ellis R 2.50 6
3 3 Cracked Code (FL) Quinonez A Mollica M 15.90 7
4 4 Morton Owen (KY) Bejarano R Mitchell M 1.90 3
5 5 My Man Sumo (KY) Solis A Becerra R 7.10 1
6 6 Domestic Gold (MD) Sorenson D Gallagher P 43.10 2
7 7 Only Be Cause (KY) Rios J Baffert B 2.10 4
 
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $16.20 $9.60 $5.20
6 $26.20 $8.00
4 $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $202.90 (5-6)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $873.80 (5-6-4)
$2.00 Daily Double paid

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 6 — 3:05 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo filles

Possible overlays                        Morning line

#1 Bread ‘n Water                            15/1
#2 Belated Bid                                   8/1
#3 First Grade                                   4/1
#8 Ride Me Fast                                5/1

The most talented horse in this race, I believe, is #8 Ride Me Fast, who is owned by Mike Pegram and trained by Bob Baffert. In her last race on March 4, Ride Me Fast was a length away from a pace setter who burned a quarter mile in 21.60 seconds and was two lengths behind a half in 44 seconds flat. And in her debut, she showed that she could finish by running a 77 Beyer Speed Figure while missing by a half a length.

Early speed isn’t that important at 6-1/2 furlongs, but I believe jockey Tyler Baze will get her to relax and she’ll finish with good energy.

Baffert also starts #2 Belated Bid who led in her debut without much encouragement from the jockey, but the pace was not quick. The only way I can see this horse winning is if it comes from behind and Baffert is slick enough to make that happen after baiting us with Ride Me Fast.

First-time starters #1 Bread ‘n Water and #3 First Grade look like good possibilities if their prices are right.

I will bet $400 to win on #8 Ride Me Fast at 2/1 and up, $1oo on #2 Belated Bid at 4/1 and higher, $150 on #1 Bread ‘n Water at 10/1 to 19/1 only and $250 on #3 First Grade at 7/2 and up.

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 2 — 1 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s

Possible overlays                        Morning line

#4 Morton Owen                             2/1
#5 My Man Sumo                            5/1
#7 Only Be  Cause                           5/2

Trainer Mike Mitchell is usually dominant in a race like this, but the one equal he has in maiden races is Bob Baffert. Both trainers start contending horses in this race.

Mitchell’s runner #4 Morton Owen ran a 76 Beyer Speed Figure in a maiden claiming $85,000 sprint on Feb. 16. But then the trainer ran Morton Owen in two route races and it didn’t seem like he could handle the competition. He should run better with the class drop and cut back in distance.

On the far outside, #7 Only Be Cause missed by a nose in his last, which was at the same class and distance for Baffert. Only Be Cause has been running Beyer Speed Figures that are right in the range of the median winning number of 68 for the class. He’s been caught wide in his most recent races and with this post position he may get a wide trip once again.

Over the past couple of years, Rafael Becerra has won several maiden races with horses coming back off long recent layoffs. Today, he saddles #5 My Man Sumo who showed speed in his previous races and could do the job at a price.

I will bet $250 on #5 My Man Sumo between 2/1 and 9/1, but I’ll reduce the wager to $100 if he’s 10/1 or more.

Also, I want $300 to win on #4 Morton Owen at 8/5 to 3/1 only, but if outside that range then I’ll opt for $200 on #7 Only Be Cause instead, as long as he’s at least 2/1.

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 4 — lost $600

Jockey Danny Sorenson rallied first timer #4 Treadwell for the win

Jockey Danny Sorenson rallied first timer #4 Treadwell for the win

Jockey Danny Sorenson sat in mid pack then unleashed a rally in the stretch to get first-time starter #4 Treadwell to the winner’s circle.

Favorite #3 Total Sum ran a decent race coming off a 14-month layoff — and jockey Joe Talamo was all over him in the stretch — but Total Sum lost by a neck when he couldn’t get by the winner.

In hindsight, the key to this race may have been the low Beyer Speed Figures showing in these horses’ past performances. The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is a 74, but the best overall sprint Beyer on this surface for these runners was just a 68.

In light of that, maybe the first time starter Treadwell’s chances could have been upgraded. But no use dwelling on the past because both Bob Baffert and Mike Mitchell have runners going today that may be live.

In this race, I bet $400 on #3 Total Sum and $200 on #7 Lago de Oro.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Winterscore (CA) Baze T Stute M 4.80 3
2 2 Big Water (CA) Quinonez A Pilmer T 5.10 5
3 3 Total Sum (CA) Talamo J Ellis R 1.60 2
4 4 Treadwell (KY) Sorenson D Bell, II T 8.60 1
5 5 Pure Green (OR) Arambula P Schiewe P 59.40 6
6 6 Road to the Throne (KY) Martin G Johnson E 74.30 7
7 7 Lago de Oro (FL) Baze M Scolamieri S 2.10 4
8 8 Some Kinda Monster (CA) Puglisi I Schwizer M 48.70 8
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $19.20 $6.40 $4.60
3 $3.60 $3.00
1 $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $30.90 (4-3)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $68.70 (5-7-4)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $111.10 (2/6-4/5-7-4)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $337.20 (4-3-1-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $141.70 (4-3-1)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $107.80 (7-4)

Las Vegas bookies make Quality Road Ky Derby favorite

quality-road-bcog-foy1

Quality Road, who is coming off back-to-back wins in the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby, is the Kentucky Derby future book favorite at two of Las Vegas most prominent race & sports books.

After opening Quality Road at 200-to-1 several months ago, Wynn Las Vegas slashed the price on the son of Elusive Quality to just 5-to-1 after the colt ran two monster Beyer Speed Figures. Down the street and around the corner at the Las Vegas Hilton, oddsmakers Jay Kornegay, Ed Salmons and Charlie Ludlow are offering up Quality Road at a paltry 4-to-1, according to the last published futures sheets updated at both places on March 30.

The numbers are low, but Quality Road deserves the respect. In the last 15 years, I can’t recall a colt posting back-to-back Beyer Speed Figures exceeding 110 in their two races leading into the Derby. By contrast, last years wonder-horse Big Brown earned just a 106 Beyer in his Florida Derby.

Originally, Quality Road was awarded a 103 Beyer when he defeated Dunkirk in the March 28 Florida Derby, but the Beyer team upgraded it to 111 after further review. In the Feb. 28 Fountain of Youth, Quality Road ran a 113 Beyer.

Quality Road’s Beyer figures are significant because the last six runnings of the Derby were all won by colts who ran less than 110 on the Beyer scale.

By sheer good fortune, I have a ticket on Quality Road, who I bet at 75-to-1 without even knowing who he was. On Dec. 20, I watched Pioneerof the Nile win the Grade I Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park. In the Daily Racing Form, Bob Baffert was quoted before the race as saying that POTN was his Derby horse.

The win virtually ensured that Pioneerof the Nile would have enough earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby gate, and I thought who’s better than Baffert at getting a horse ready to run his eyeballs out on the first Saturday in May.

Of course, I also considered the chance that Baffert’s horse might get injured, but at the time all the talk was about how safe synthetic surfaces were for horses. So after the Cash Call Futurity, I zoomed down to Las Vegas Hilton, but before I got to the window I saw Vic Vivio, who I worked with for years at the Imperial Palace.

Back in 2000, Vivio, who is now a supervisor at Palace Station, got huge odds on Fusaichi Pegasus in the future book and won more than $5,000 when Fu Peg strolled home in the Derby. At the Hilton on Dec. 20, Vivio told me that he had recently bet Quality Road — who I had never heard of at the time — based on the 101 Beyer Speed Figure he earned while breaking his maiden in a sprint on Nov. 29 at Aqueduct. And Quality Road’s odds at the time Vivio got down were 125-to-1.

I figured what the heck? This guy Vivio has been around the horse game for awhile, maybe he learned a thing or two about the ponies. So, along with Pioneerof the Nile at 40-to-1, I also bet Quality Road at 75-to-1.

And as long as Qualilty Road and Pioneerof the Nile get into the Derby gate, I see the futures as an opportunity to turn Kentucky Derby into a positive advantage race for me. So, I plan to wager on other contenders at decent pari-mutel odds because funny things can happen in a 20-horse field with a hundred thousand drunken screaming fans.

But Vivio, who I spoke to a couple of days ago, will absolutely not hedge.

In fact, Quality Road is the only Derby horse Vivio bet, and he likes him so much that he also loaded up on the colt in the pari-mutuel future book exactas.

“I’m just going to root for him to win,” Vivio said.

And, you know what,  he just might.

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 4 — lost $200

bob-baffert-hats-at-the-129th-kentucky-derby-weekend

After trying route races, trainer Bob Baffert found that Hurley's Way likes 7 furlongs

On Aug. 15, Hurley’s Way ran sixth in a Del Mar sprint and afterward Bob Baffert claimed him for $100,000. Over the next five months, Baffert raced his new runner in three route races, two of which were in the maiden special weight ranks, but Hurley’s Way never hit the board.

Finally on Jan. 19, Baffert bit the bullet and dropped Hurley’s Way into a 7-furlong maiden $32,000 claiming sprint, and the colt responded by almost winning after an extremely wide trip.

The race must have showed Baffert that his best chance with Hurley’s Way would be in the claiming ranks at 7 furlongs. So, the trainer spent the last few months tuning up his runner, then waited for the racing secretary to write a 7-furlong race for $32,000 claimers.

And like a baseball player waiting for his pitch, when Baffert finally got a fat one down the middle he knocked it for a loop.

When this race began, jockey Joel Rosario took Hurley’s Way to the back of the nine-horse field then made his move by riding the rail on the turn. In the stretch, Hurley’s Way rolled by pace setter #9 Olympic Magic with Rosario giving his mount a couple of swats of the whip 50 yards from the wire just to let the colt know that the race wasn’t over yet.

About the only thing wrong with this whole scenario was that Hurley’s Way’s price dipped below my 2-to-1 minimum acceptable odds. What can I say, but that I’m greedy. Not only do I want the best horse in the race, but I want good odds on him, too.

So, I ended up going to Plan B, which was to forget about my $250 Hurley’s Way bet and put $200 on the longer of #4 Mont La Salle and #9 Olympic Magic. Since Mont La Salle was 7/1, he got the money.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Warren’s Peanut (CA) Hill C Van Berg J 35.00 9
2 2 New York Baby (VA) Talamo J Knapp S 3.10 7
3 3 Class Dismissed (KY) Quinonez A Dunham D 50.60 3
4 4 Mont La Salle (FL) Delgadillo A Garcia V 7.50 8
5 5 Rogue River (CA) Blanc B Pender M 10.20 5
6 6 Late Nite Devil (CA) Garcia M Harty E 57.30 4
7 7 El Diablito (KY) Sorenson D Glatt M 28.10 6
8 8 Hurley’s Way (OH) Rosario J Baffert B 1.60 1
9 9 Olympic Magic (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Ellis R 2.90 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $5.20 $2.80 $2.60
9 $3.80 $3.20
3 $11.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $7.30 (8-9)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $334.40 (1-6-8)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 2:03 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 7 furlongs, 3 yo’s

Possible overlays                          Morning line

#4 Mont La Salle                                 4/1
#8 Hurley’s Way                                  5/2
#9 Olympic Magic                                3/1

This looks like a three-horse race to me.

The Ronald Ellis-trained #9 Olympic Magic has the best early speed and has been running Beyer numbers in the mid-to-upper 60’s recently.

In his last race, #4 Mont La Salle was wide on both turns while still earning a 65 Beyer Speed Figure, so it seems reasonable that he can run in the low 70’s.

On Jan. 19, #8 Hurley’s Way swung six or seven wide rounding the turn in a 7 furlong sprint. He didn’t have the final gear in the stretch to get by Jazzin Razz that day, but I think Bob Baffert learned something about his horse. After four previous unsuccessful tries at various class levels and distances, I think Baffert decided that Hurley’s Way was a 7-furlong horse that could win a $32,000 claiming race.

Hurley’s Way hasn’t run since Jan. 19, as Baffert’s been tuning him up and he looks to be ready to run a big one.

I will bet $250 on #8 Hurley’s Way at 2/1 or better, but if he’s bet to 9/5 or less then I want $200 on whoever is a longer price between #4 Mont Las Salle and #9 Olympic Magic.

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 10 — won $1,570

big-pile-of-cashBob Baffert is showing just how deadly he is when he enters two or more horses in a maiden race.

On March 22, Baffert scored with the Irish Gypsy-Mother Ruth exacta when he had three horses running in a maiden special weight sprint. And the prices weren’t too bad either, with Irish Gypsy paying 4-to-1 and Mother Ruth at 5-to-2.

On Saturday, Baffert was back at it. He had both #6 Hard Kisses and #8 Diamond Tags making their second lifetime starts. In her Feb. 22 debut, Hard Kisses finished 1-1/2 lengths behind Saturday’s favorite #3 Shiksa — but she ran a better race that day, as she was bumped at the break and went wide on the turn. Also, Shiksa — who by contrast had a great trip Feb. 22 — is trained by the struggling Patrick Biancone, who has won with just one of his last 47 starters.

Baffert’s other runner, the 9-to-2 shot Diamond Tags, showed a purchase price of $500,000 and was coming off a seven month layoff. 

During the running of the race, Hard Kisses, 5-to-1, sat in third behind pace-setters #2 Ultra Awesome and #7 Gumption. Jockey David Flores shook Hard Kisses up at the top of the lane, she came to the leaders, then took command in midstretch and never surrendered the lead. Diamond Tags lagged in last then rallied strongly to be second, which completed the  $33.50 Baffert exacta.

I had difficulty trying to separate which Baffert horse was stronger, so I let the odds board decide. My plan was to bet $350 on the longer-odds horse — which turned out to be Hard Kisses — and $250 on the other, Diamond Tags.

I collected $2,170 after wagering $600.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Wada Falls (FL) Sutherland C Mullins J 4.60 7
2 2 Ultra Awesome (KY) Bejarano R Yakteen T 7.70 8
3 3 Shiksa (KY) Talamo J Biancone P 3.40 5
4 4 Idontbelievemyeyes (KY) Blanc B Harty E 71.80 6
5 5 Crystal Empire R N (KY) Smith M Walsh K 20.50 9
6 6 Hard Kisses (ON) Flores D Baffert B 5.20 1
7 7 Gumption (KY) Solis A Headley B 3.50 4
8 8 Diamond Tags (KY) Rosario J Baffert B 4.50 2
9 9 Ruby Lane (KY) Espinoza V Capestro P 21.10 3
 
Pgm Win Place Show
6 $12.40 $5.80 $3.80
8 $5.40 $4.80
9 $8.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $33.50 (6-8)
$1.00 Pick

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 5 — 2:34 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 7 furlongs, 3 yo fillies

Possible overlays                             Morning line

#3 Shiksa                                            7/2
#6 Hard Kisses                                     3/1
#8 Diamond Tags                                  4/1

Here we go again.

Trainer Bob Baffert has two horses entered in here — #6 Hard Kisses and #8 Diamond Tags — and both of them look good.

Hard Kisses, a second-time starter, ran against #3 Shiksa in her debut and although she finished a half length behind Shiksa, she ran a better race. Shiksa, who was also making her first lifetime start, ran an 80 Beyer Speed Figure while rallying to be second by a neck. One big difference is that Shiksa had an excellent trip, breaking well and sitting on the rail throughout the turn.

However, Hard Kisses came out of the far outside stall and was immediately shoved a couple of lanes wider by the horse inside of her at the start. Furthermore, on the turn, Hard Kisses was hung four lanes wide the whole way and still finished within three-quarters of a length of the winner.

With the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class being 80, both of these horses have the qualifications to win today.

Baffert’s other filly, Diamond Tags, is coming off a seven-month layoff and as we saw last Sunday, Baffert is no slouch with layoff horses. Last Sunday, Irish Gypsy beat a maiden special weight field off an eight-month layoff.  

Diamond Tags made her debut on Aug. 10 at Del Mar where she was a bit crowded at the start, stayed on the rail then rallied well into the stretch, running a 65 Beyer. Because of maturity and the Baffert magic, it would be no surprise to see this one Beyer in the 80’s.

Also, Diamond Tags, who is showing a $500,000 purchase price, has two sharp workouts including a bullet versus 60 others that worked 4 furlongs on Feb. 11. Garrett Gomez rode Diamond Tags in her debut, and of the seven Baffert debuters I have listed with Gomez none were bought for less than $230,000. So Gomez only rides the finest of Baffert’s stock.

Today, Rosario is on board as Gomez is riding Dunkirk in the Florida Derby.

On the other hand, Hal Earnhardt, the owner of Hard Kisses, is one of Baffert’s first clients and Baffert makes sure the horses Earnhardt owns win early. With the Irish Gypsy layoff win fresh in people’s minds, Bob may switch things up and win with the recently-raced animal.

In the end, I will put $350 to win on whoever goes off at longer post time odds between #6 Hard Kisses and #8 Diamond Tags, and a $250 win bet on the shorter priced Baffert runner.

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 7 — lost $350

Trainer Bob Baffert won Sunday's seventh with #9 Irish Gypsy, owned by Mike Pegram. (Flickr photo by Yausser)

Trainer Bob Baffert won Sunday's seventh with #9 Irish Gypsy, owned by Mike Pegram. (Flickr photo by Yausser)

When it comes to winning maiden sprints in Southern California, Bob Baffert is the master. He trains the most talented young horses on the grounds and he gets surprisingly decent pari-mutuel prices because he wins early and knows how to set things up.

For years, Baffert has often won when he starts two maiden sprinters in the same race. On Sunday, he had three runners in this 10-horse Santa Anita maiden field, so I strongly suspected at least one of them would be ultra live.

Baffert named leading jockey Garrett Gomez on first-time starter #3 Mother Ruth and Rafael Bejarano, who is second in the rider standings,  on another debuter, #1 Belated Bid. But the money horse here was #9 Irish Gypsy.

Irish Gypsy is owned by Mike Pegram, who is a close friend and long-time client of Baffert’s. This filly ran well in the summer, as she lost to juvenile filly champion Stardom Bound by just two lengths.

Entering Sunday’s race, Irish Gypsy was coming off an eight-month layoff with a series of good workouts — but the lengthy absence typically causes horseplayers to wager with caution. The rider, David Flores, is competent but doesn’t have the pari-mutuel following that Gomez and Bejarano have. And over the years, Baffert has had lots of luck with Flores.

The betting public made #3 Mother Ruth the 5-to-2 favorite after no doubt seeing her published $425,000 purchase price, six fast workouts and the fact that Gomez had won on 12 of the last 25 Baffert-trained horses. Bejarano’s mount #1 Belated Bid was a late foal and hadn’t been working out as well, but was still 9-to-1.

If Baffert entered neither of these fillies in this race, and Gomez was named on Irish Gypsy instead of Flores, then it’s safe to say that Irish Gypsy would have been less than 2-to-1. But instead she paid $10.40 to win.

I am not saying that Gomez on Mother Ruth did not try hard, as anyone who watches the replay can see the rider all over this filly in the stretch to just miss at the wire. And I am not saying that the Baffert-Pegram-Flores team is doing something wrong or unethical.

All I am saying is that Baffert is very savvy, he knows the tendencies of the betting public, and tries hard to get decent prices on his maiden winners. So, it’s profitable to learn this trainer’s maiden moves.

Speaking as somebody who hates seeing 6-to-5 shots win, I wish more trainers were like him.

After the race, (why don’t reporters ask trainers before the race??) Baffert told the Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman that Irish Gypsy developed foot problems in 2008, so she had to be rested. “She just needed some time. If you don’t give them time, they’ll make you wait longer.”

When looking at this race for the site on Saturday night, I was tempted to bet Irish Gypsy, but put $350 on Mother Ruth because she just looked too good. But after thinking about this situation on Sunday, when my real money was on the line at race time I split my bet with 60 percent going on Mother Ruth and 40 percent on Irish Gypsy.

But, of course, I will take the $350 loss for betting Mother Ruth on the site.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Belated Bid (KY) Bejarano R Baffert B 9.60 9
3 2 Mother Ruth (KY) Gomez G Baffert B 2.90 2
4 3 Indomitable (KY) Baze T Gaines C 8.60 10
5 4 Michelle Marie (KY) Russell C West T 23.20 8
6 5 Guided Wave (KY) Solis A Gallagher P 7.90 7
7 6 Beloved Deputy (KY) Nakatani C Dollase C 30.20 5
8 7 Shehadmefromhello (KY) Baze M Guillot E 4.80 6
9 8 Irish Gypsy (KY) Flores D Baffert B 4.20 1
10 9 She’s Borracho (KY) Talamo J Mullins J 5.80 4
11 10 Lisa Jean (NY) Rosario J Jones M 24.40 3
SCR Lion Heart’s Bluff (KY)    
 
Pgm Win Place Show
9 $10.40 $4.80 $3.60
3 $4.40 $3.60
11 $10.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $19.80 (9-3)
$1.00 Pick

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 9 — lost $350

Jockey Tyler Baze won tight photo finish on #7 Lahcotah that paid $33.40

Jockey Tyler Baze won tight photo finish on #7 Lahcotah that paid $33.40

Bob Baffert had #13 Only Be Cause ready to run. This 2-to-1 shot led by a slim margin for much of the stretch, but  couldn’t quite hang in there as #7 Lahcotah nailed him in the last jump.

As the race began, Only Be Cause sat a length or two off of pacesetters #10 Downtown Banker, #5 Pemba at U.T.K. and Lahcotah. Entering the stretch, Downtown Banker shook free, as Lahcotah dropped back three lengths.

Jockey Jesus Rios was all over Only Be Cause as he pulled next to Downtown Banker in midstretch and battled head-and-head with him to the wire. But, surprisingly, Lahcotah came again on the outside with a quick surge to nail them both.

I bet $350 on Only Be Cause at 2-to-1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 New York Baby (VA) Baze M Knapp S 4.50 5
2 2 Class Dismissed (KY) Delgadillo A Dunham D 76.10 10
3 3 Marcade (KY) Smith M Sadler J 5.50 4
4 4 De Brief Me (CA) Talamo J O’Neill D 8.60 12
5 5 Pemba At U. T. K. (CA) Rodriguez A Ho H 37.60 8
6 6 Domestic Gold (MD) Sorenson D Gallagher P 42.30 11
7 7 Lahcotah (FL) Baze T Paasch C 15.70 1
8 8 Group Effort (FL) Garcia M Freeman E 65.40 13
9 9 Today’s Gold (CA) Espinoza V Hess, Jr. R 21.70 9
10 10 Downtown Banker (FL) Husbands P Chew M 11.80 3
11 11 Saccente (KY) Rosario J Yakteen T 5.30 7
13 12 Only Be Cause (KY) Rios J Baffert B 2.10 2
14 13 Rogue River (CA) Blanc B Pender M 81.30 6
SCR J’s Stormtracker (CA)    
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $33.40 $11.40 $7.40
13 $3.60 $3.40
10 $6.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $66.20 (7-13)
$

Early KY Derby forecast: Toss The Pamplemousse and favor Pioneerof the Nile, Quality Road and Imperial Council

homeOf the 23 colts listed in this year’s second pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby future book pool, the two most likely to win at Churchill Downs on May 2 are Quality Road and Pioneerof the Nile.

Quality Road’s 4-1/4 length win in Gulfstream Park’s Fountain of Youth on Feb. 28 earned him a 113 Beyer Speed Figure, which ties for the highest Beyer with I Want Revenge’s Gotham Stakes performance. Both of these horses sat within a length of the leader then drew off in the stretch, leading some handicappers to believe they ran the same type of race.

But I don’t agree.  

Quality Road stalked the pace in the one mile Fountain of Youth Stakes that was run in a quick 45-2/5 seconds for the half mile and 1:09-2/5 seconds for 6 furlongs. In the March 7 Gotham Stakes, I Want Revenge crawled in comparison.

The 1-1/16th mile Gotham fractions were 48-2/5 seconds for the half and 1:12-3/5 seconds for 6 furlongs. According to my pace numbers, which take track variant into consideration, Quality Road ran 10 lengths faster early than I Want Revenge.

Yes, the Fountain of Youth was run at one turn, while the Gotham Stakes was two turns, but that shouldn’t account for a 10-length pace difference.  

Of course, I Want Revenge finished faster than Quality Road, but he had an almost ideal scenario of an extremely slow early pace with no traffic to fight through. So, since I Want Revenge didn’t exert himself early, he had plenty of punch left for the stretch.

I Want Revenge, who is trained by Jeff Mullins, is obviously talented, but I can virtually guarantee you that this horse won’t experience such a soft pace again until The Belmont Stakes in June. Quality Road was much more impressive, but trainer James Jerkens needs to continue working to harness this contender’s brilliant speed or else he’ll die in the Churchill Downs stretch.

Pioneerof the Nile, trained by Bob Baffert, has never cracked 100 on the Beyer scale, but his stretch kick in the Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 7 stamped him as a strong Derby contender. He’s scheduled to run against a small field in the 1-1/16th mile San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday. 

The only knock on Pioneerof the Nile is that he also went slow early in the Lewis Stakes, but he is not a front runner. Rather, this colt sat far off the pace and overcame a troubled trip.

Kentucky Derby pari-mutuel betting is open through Sunday afternoon when the pools close and odds are locked in. This is the second of three Derby pools and Churchill Downs is also offering both Derby exacta betting and Kentucky Oaks wagering this weekend.  

One of this year’s overly-hyped colts who does not look like a strong Derby horse to me is The Pamplemousse. This Julio Canani trainee won 1-1/8 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 28, but was loose on the lead and went six lengths slower than Quality Road through the first six furlongs. The Pamplemousse, who earned a 103 Beyer Speed Figure, set an OK pace considering the Sham is two turns, but his finishing time showed that he is not yet Derby material. This horse will need to run much better next time to get my money on Derby Day.

Lastly, Imperial Council moved from eighth place to second in the Gotham Stakes, but didn’t gain any ground on I Want Revenge. However, trainer Shug McGaughey has this colt going in the right direction and his Gotham effort shows that Imperial Council has the ability to run well at the Triple Crown distances.

It is true that any of these colts could get injured at any time and be pulled from the Derby. So getting decent odds to cover the risk is essential.

Anything over 10-to-1 on #17 Pioneerof the Nile seems fair. While I would need 15/1 on both #13 Imperial Council and #18 Quality Road for a bet.

As for The Pamplemousse, throw him out until he shows that he can win while leading on a fast pace that is combined with a strong finishing kick.

TV’s “Jockeys” is a winning ride. But why muzzle Trevor?

The TV show  “Jockeys” is an exciting behind-the-scenes look at what it’s like to ride top Thoroughbreds on the lucrative and ultra-competitive Southern California racing circuit.

I watched back-to-back half-hour episodes on Animal Planet Feb. 27 where the story focused on jockeys Joe Talamo, Brendon Meier, Alex Solis and Solis’ son, bloodstock agent Alex Solis II.

Being that Talamo, Meier and Solis II are all less than 24 years old, the program was obviously slanted toward youth, at least in these episodes. The first show entitled “May the Horse Be With You” opened with the narrator telling us that Talamo, who won the 2007 Eclipse Award as the nation’s top apprentice, was losing lots of races lately.

“I’m on a cold streak and you always want to win,” said the 19-year-old Louisiana native. “I really want to win one today.”

Reckless riding

Talamo was then shown, in three consecutive races, losing control of his horses as they swerved into the path of other runners. To display how damaging a horse fall can be, the producers showed footage of jockey Mike Smith getting tossed from a horse in 1998. Smith, who almost died from the accident, was in a body cast for a month, he said.

The jockeys on the program all seem to get along well, but they don’t take riding mistakes lightly. Bad rides can easily lead to crippling injuries or death. 

After Talamo’s reckless incidents, one jockey put a white message board above Talamo’s locker, drew a racing oval and added a zig-zagged line throughout the oval. Above the drawing read: “Talamo’s path to the winner’s circle.”  And another sign written by a rival above Talamo’s locker read, “What goes around comes around.”

Talamo summoned to stewards

When a horse impedes another, the jockey goes before three stewards who serve as the judge and jury for riders. They review the race replays and the rider explains what happened. If the stewards think the jockey was at fault, they are suspended for a few days and can’t make any money.

Jockeys are paid 10 percent of the owners share of the purse for winning a race, and 5 percent for second and third. Purses generally start at about $15,000 in Southern California for maiden claiming races and dramatically increase to millions of dollars for stakes races. The winning owner gets 60 percent of the purse, second place is 20 percent and third pays 10 percent.

So, riders make $900 for winning  a race with a $15,000 purse and $60,000 if they win a $1 million stakes. Not bad for a couple of minutes work, but they spend hours every morning exercising horses and cultivating trainer relationships. Also, jockey booking agents take 20-25 percent of the rider’s pay.

Talamo met with the stewards and they watched his races together. The panel, who told Talamo they have no tolerance for careless riding, expected quicker reactions from Talamo when his horses were swerving during his races. 

However, Talamo was riding inexperienced and sometimes unpredictable 2-year-old horses, so the stewards didn’t penalize him. “I think it’s fair to say that he was very close to suspension,” said steward Scott Cheney. “He could have acted a little bit faster.”

Smith takes Talamo under his wing

Viewers learn that these jockeys try to beat each other every day, but after the races they go out to dinner together, workout together and socialize with each other. During one scene, a table full of jockeys — at least the ones older than 21 — were sipping wine during dinner at an upscale restaurant. (And I thought all these guys drank was water and ate nothing more than a  peanut or two a day.)

The conversation turned to how young jockeys are getting mounts on good horses today, whereas 10 or 20 years ago they would have to pay their dues first.

“It takes a long time to get good,” said Mike Smith, who won the 2005 Kentucky Derby aboard Giacomo. “You ain’t that good Joe. You aren’t going to get that good until you are in your 30’s” 

In another scene, Smith had a party at his house and the wine glasses were full again. Gary Stevens attended and Talamo was amazed that he’d watched Stevens in the movie “Seabiscuit” just three years ago, and now he was hanging out at parties with him.

When Smith started riding, the veterans helped him out. So, Smith now advises Talamo and works out with him. They were shown jogging on the Santa Anita track. Afterward, he told Talamo to work hard and let trainers and owners know that he wants opportunities to ride good horses. But when given the the chance, he better make the most of it, Smith added.

“One good horse will make you famous,” Smith told Talamo.

Alex Solis II, 23, bloodstock agent

At the beginning of the second half hour, entitled “Hands Down,” viewers are introduced to Alex Solis II, a 23-year-old bloodstock agent. Solis II, who was involved with the aquisition of Sham Stakes winner The Pamplemousse, purchases horses and solicits investors to buy shares in his runners.

If a bloodstock agent makes a good buy and the runner wins a stakes race, then the horse could be worth millions of dollars as a breeder. But pick the wrong horse, and investors can lose lots of money.

Apprentice can’t seem to get started

Minutes into the second half hour, viewers also meet Brandon Meier — an apprentice jockey who won 58 races in three months at Arlington Park. Meier, 20, is the son of jockey Randy Meier, who is the all-time leading rider at Sportsman’s Park and Hawthorne. But Brandon is having trouble getting mounts at Santa Anita.

The stewards keep a close eye on new riders like Meier and many trainers won’t use inexperienced jockeys, even though they get a 5-pound weight break.

“I use apprentices,” said trainer Bob Baffert. “But if you have a high profile horse, you want a veteran rider.”

In a dramatic moment, Meier finally got a mount that had a strong chance to win. His horse looked so good that, while jockey Jon Court was sitting around in the jockey’s room, he bet Aaron Gryder a Gatorade that Meier’s horse would defeat the one Talamo was riding.

Meier, who was on One Time at Band Camp, had the lead in the stretch, but Return of the King with Talamo came rolling home in the stretch to nail him by a nose.

To make matters worse, Meier drifted out in the lane, so he was summoned to the stewards office the next day for an explanation. Luckily, Meier didn’t get suspended.

Alex Solis rides for son

One of Solis II’s horses, Lavender Sky, was ready to run and his father Alex Solis was looking forward to riding this classy animal, who trainer Dan Hendricks estimated to be worth at least $500,000.

“Normally your kids want to do great for you,” said jockey Solis, who is also the regular rider for The Pamplemousse. “I want to do great for him.”

But Solis couldn’t get Lavender Sky to run and she finished dead last.

“Too many good jockeys”

In a couple of scenes, Meier’s girlfriend was pressuring him to come back to Arlington Park. Meier told her that if business didn’t pick up at Santa Anita then he’d think about making a move.

Journeyman jockeys either catch on or move on. And for Meier, business didn’t pick up, so he decided that after three weeks he’d had enough. He  packed up his truck, said his goodbyes, and was off to the Churchill Downs/Keeneland circuit where he had some contacts.

“There are not enough horses and too many good jockeys here,” Meier said.

Show does Trevor no justice

To horseplayers at simulcast centers watching races on TV screens, every horse looks like every other horse and the jockeys all look the same too. What a show like “Jockeys” does, is to put a human face on the game while shining a light on various racing interactions and subtleties.

But one thing I do not like about this show are the ridiculous race calls by track announcer Trevor Denman, which sound like they’re straight from an outdated video game. Denman has become one of America’s all-time great race callers because of the excitment and drama he adds that almost nobody can match. But on “Jockeys” he speaks in a monotone with lots of dead air while using riders names instead of horses names.

The show does him no justice.

Otherwise, for fans of horse racing and competitive sports, “Jockeys” is a winning ride.

“Jockeys” airs at 9 p.m Pacific Time Friday on Animal Planet. On March 6, the first half-hour “Legend of the Fallen” is about retired jockeys risking it all in one last comeback race. Also, Chantal Sutherland faces a difficult decision. The second half hour “Go Big or Go Home” sees 2007 Horse of the Year Curlin arriving at Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup. 

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 2 — 1 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                       Morning line

#2 Monolingual                               4/1
#4 Great Legacy                            5/1
#5 Fabulous Forum                        12/1

The photo finish camera has not been friendly to #1 Turk, who lost his first two races by a nose. This Bob Baffert-trainee, which is also owned by the trainer, went off at 2-to-5 in his last two races and figures to be less than even money again today. Turk has run Beyer Speed Figures of 88, 86, and 86, so he looks solid here considering the median winning Beyer Speed Figure is an 87. Garrett Gomez takes over for Joel Rosario, who went very wide last time out.

To bet a horse like Turk, you must believe there is no chance he can lose. And, of course, there is always a chance that Turk will run like a turkey — or at least lose another photo because 5-1/2 furlongs is too short. 

One colt that might beat him is #2 Monolingual, who is working out well and has Rafael Bejarano aboard. The owners, Ike and Dawn Thrash, have started two first timers over the last couple of years and both of them hit the board.

Another likely worth a bet is #4 Great Legacy. Trained by Eoin Harty, this colt is out of supersire Storm Cat, whose stud fee is $300,000.

Finally, if either Monolingual and Great Legacy don’t fall into the betting range then I will add #5 Fabulous Forum. This horse has been training down at San Luis Rey Downs with Peter Miller and Joel Rosario rides.

I will bet $250 to win on both #2 Monolingual and #4 Great Legacy at odds of 3/1 to 9/1 only. If the odds rise to 10/1 to 19/1 then my bet reduces to $100. Also, if the odds are less than 3/1 on either of them, then I will substitute for that horse a $100 win bet on #5 Fabulous Forum at 10/1 to 19/1.

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 4 — lost $350

Trained by Bruce Headley, #4 Scored sat 10 lengths off the pace then came late

Trained by Bruce Headley, #4 Scored sat 10 lengths off the pace then came late

You can’t blame Bob Baffert this time. Sangaree was ready to roll and he went gamely all the way to the wire. But this brother of Congaree lost for the fifth straight time because of either poor racing tactics by Victor Espinoza or bad luck — depending on how harsh you want to be.

Sangaree, who went off at 7-to-1, broke with the leaders but settled into stride a couple of lengths off the pace. As they approached the turn, Espinoza allowed Sangaree to run up to the leading group — the only problem was that he was four paths wide on the whole turn, causing him to lose a ton of ground. 

Throughout the turn, a four-horse wall vied for the lead together, which was an unusual sight to see. On the rail was #6 Stretchdrive, then #3 Lucius Antonius was just outside with #7 Ribald right next door. Sangaree was outside of them all, as the four bobbed heads through a 45.14-second half mile.

Sangaree outran the other pace setters, but his bad trip left him without the energy to hold off first-time starter #4 Scored. Alex Solis took the winner off the early pace by more than 10 lengths, then Scored swung wide entering the stretch and moved like an express train in the lane to get up by a head.

I bet $150 on Sangaree and $200 on #7 Ribald.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Wharf Cat (KY) Flores D Marlow M 2.60 4
2 2 His Sisters Mister (KY) Baze M Headley G 56.50 7
3 3 Lucius Antonius (KY) Stra K Green J 39.30 8
4 4 Scored (KY) Solis A Headley B 6.20 1
5 5 Holladay Road (CA) Gomez G Gaines C 6.70 6
6 6 Stretchdrive (FL) Talamo J Biancone P 28.40 10
7 7 Ribald (CA) Rios J Sherman A 5.10 5
8 8 Sangaree (KY) Espinoza V Baffert B 7.00 2
9 9 Lunar Humor (KY) Smith M Carava J 8.30 9
10 10 Adebayor (KY) Bejarano R Gaines C 4.80 3
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $14.40 $7.00 $4.80
8 $6.80 $4.60
10 $5.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $49.30 (4-8)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $99.40 (5-5-4)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $873.40 (1-5-5-4)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2516.50 (4-8-10-1)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $552.40 (4-8-10)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $90.80 (5-4)

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 2 — lost $450

Trainer Julio Canani won with #5 Lady Lumberjack, who paid $3.

Trainer Julio Canani won with #5 Lady Lumberjack, who paid $3.

It didn’t take long for the public to realize who the favorite would be in this race. Somebody (trainer Julio Canani??) must have plunked down $15,000 on #5 Lady Lumberjack because she was 1-to-9 a few minutes into the betting.

I happened to look at the win pool with more than 20 minutes to post, and Lady Lumberjack had $19,000 on her while the other contenders had only $4,000 to $5,000 bet on each of them.

Julio Canani trains Lady Lumberjack and many of his contending horses are so heavily bet that wagering on them is out of the question. Anyway, Lady Lumberjack, who went off at 1-to-2, looked like a solid contender in here, but her odds were ridiculously low. She broke well and stalked #3 Lion Heart’s Bluff down the backstretch.

On the turn, the Bob Baffert-trained #9 Hard Kisses, a 10-to-1 first time starter, was hung out four wide and running well about four lengths back. On the rail, another debuter #7 Shiksa, at 11-to-1,  was in last place preparing to rally.

As the field swung for home, Lady Lumberjack took over from the game 50-to-1 shot Lion Heart’s Bluff and began easing away. But jockey Joe Talamo swung Shiksa off the rail and was closing fast.

In the end, Shiksa ran out of ground and missed by about a half a length with Hard Kisses a length behind the winner, Lady Lumberjack.

My bets ended up being $200 on #4 White Lamb — who made no impact –$150 on #7 Shiksa and $100 on #9 Hard Kisses. 

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Godfrey Queen (KY) Baze M Guillot E 32.40 7
2 2 Desert Rose Drive (KY) Husbands P Casse M 10.30 6
3 3 Lion Heart’s Bluff (KY) Potts C Rosales R 51.80 4
4 4 White Lamb (FL) Gomez G Harty E 6.00 9
5 5 Lady Lumberjack (KY) Bejarano R Canani J 0.50 1
6 6 Guided Wave (KY) Rosario J Gallagher P 19.90 5
7 7 Shiksa (KY) Talamo J Biancone P 11.20 2
8 8 Smart Tiffany (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Lobo P 30.70 8
9 9 Hard Kisses (ON) Flores D Baffert B 10.70 3
 
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $3.00 $2.40 $2.10
7 $6.40 $4.60
9 $4.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $12.00 (5-7)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1043.80 (5-7-9