Results, Hollywood Park Monday Race 10 — lost $450

Trainer Bob Baffert closed out Memorial Day by winning with #8 Only Be Cause

Trainer Bob Baffert closed out Memorial Day by winning with #8 Only Be Cause

Second-time starter #12 Bango popped out of the gate and led for most of the race by open lengths. This 9/2 shot, who is trained by Jorge Periban, had a two-length lead in midstretch, but he quit badly as #8 Only Be Cause inherited the front and put trainer Bob Baffert back in the winner’s circle.

Only Be Cause was making his eleventh lifetime start, however only three of them came at maiden claiming $32,000. I had him rated about the same as #7 Domestic Gold, who did not fire at 7/2.

In his previous five races, Only Be Cause never went off at odds higher than 3-to-1, and this race was no different as he was the 2-to-1 favorite. On social networking site Twitter, poster @larryzapeye was at Hollywood Park and minutes before the race he provided his reasoning for betting Only Be Cause:  “Baffert is still here and horse looks healthy.”

During the race, jockey Victor Espinoza sat Only Be Cause about four lengths off Bango’s lead. Espinoza asked for more in the stretch and, with the wire approaching, it looked like the son of Giant’s Causeway would lose for the 11th straight time. But Bango could not last and Only Be Cause ran onto victory.

I wagered $200 on #7 Domestic Gold, $150 on #12 Bango and $100 on #13 Candy Coat.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
2 1 Classical Bartok (CA) Delgadillo A Papaprodromou G 41.40 8
4 2 Decarchy Fever (CA) Quinonez A Sticka R 37.50 7
7 3 Domestic Gold (MD) Sorenson D Gallagher P 3.60 6
8 4 Only Be Cause (KY) Espinoza V Baffert B 2.40 1
9 5 Truly a Delight (CA) Baze M Bernstein D 5.90 4
11 6 Richardminichiello (CA) Valdez F Truman E 45.00 9
12 7 Bango (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Periban J 4.90 3
13 8 Candy Coat (KY) Stra K Sise, Jr. C 7.00 5
14 9 Box Office Star (KY) Bejarano R Yakteen T 4.80 2
SCR Fire Scout (CA)    
SCR Benjamin Z (KY) Baze T Mitchell M
SCR Sovereign Lord (CA)    
SCR Boomtown (KY)    
SCR Downtown Banker (FL)    
 
Pgm Win Place Show
8 $6.80 $3.60 $2.40
14 $5.20 $4.60
12 $4.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $20.70 (8-14)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 5 — 3 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Calif. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s +

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#1 Extended                                 3/1
#4 Brilliant Response                       5/2

There are two $40,000 maiden claiming races for fillies and mares today and the Harris Farms-Carla Gaines-Rafael Bejarano team has a good shot to win them both.

Gaines trains #4 Brilliant Response, who ran decently in two maiden special weight races last summer at Del Mar. Today, she’ll try to win off a nine-month layoff.

Gaines is OK off a layoff, but trainer Brian Koriner is outstanding when the layoff horses he saddles are getting bet. Koriner trains #1 Extended, who has been idle for almost a year, but looks to have the best early speed and that’s important at 5-1/2 furlongs.

I will bet $400 to win on #1 Extended at 2/1 to 7/2, but $200 at 4/1 or better. If #4 Brilliant Response is in the 2/1 to 7/2 range then I will bet $300 to win on her, but only if Extended is either 4/1 or more or 9/5 or less.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted, especially by the notorious website “Our Blogs Kentucky Derby Everything You Need To Know.”

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 1 — 1 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3+, f&m

Possible overlays            Morning line

 #4 She’s Very Rare                   5/1
#6 Asanti                                  5/2
#9 Gold Image                            8/5

 Of the nine horses going to post, three of them are first-time starters. I will let them beat me if they’re good enough.

Two fillies in here look strikingly similar. Both #6 Asanti and #9 Gold Image are coming off long recent layoffs, they’ve run close to the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class, and both have the right running style.
 
Gold Image has great connections. Over the years, the Harris Farms-Carla Gaines team won plenty of maiden claiming sprints in Southern California, but they have recently underperformed. Also, jockey Rafael Bejarano won on 15 of the last 51 horses he’s ridden for Gaines, or 29 percent.
 
But Gold Image is likely to be overbet, which is why I’ll probably have my money on Asanti.
 
Another possibility is #4 She’s Very Rare. She was off slowly in her only start and now Garrett Gomez takes the mount. Also, trainer Donald Warren won with four of his last 17 second-time starters.
 
I will bet $250 to win on #6 Asanti or #9 Gold Image at 2/1 to 7/2 only. If both fall into the betting zone, then I will put my money on whoever is longer and wager nothing on the lower-priced one.
 
Also, I want $100 on #4 She’s Very Rare regardless of the prices on Asanti and Gold Image.

 © Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for www.maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted, especially by a website called Our Blogs Kentucky Derby Everything You Need To Know

Results, Hollywood Park Sunday Race 6 — won $325

super%20clipBefore this race ran, I was listening to Hollywood race caller Vic Stauffer handicap the contenders as they paraded to post. And Stauffer had lot’s of good things to say about #11 Spacy Tracy, which included how this filly will crush this field if she ran back to the 78 Beyer Speed Figure she earned in her debut. Stauffer also added that he was confident that trainer Angelo Tekos could get the horse to win off her 17-month layoff.

With most other TV handicappers, I would not have paid much attention to their comments. But Stauffer is also the agent for jockey Joel Rosario, who has won on 24 percent of his 70 mounts this meet and was named to ride Spacy Tracy.

Spacy Tracy, who was 6-to-1 on the morning line, took enough action to be bet to 5-to-2 at post time. As the race began, jockey Tyler Baze sent another 5-to-2 shot #7 Mad For Plaid for the lead and she was in front by a length on the backstretch.

But on the turn, Spacy Tracy loomed dangerously in third place behind #10 Tahitian Bluff, a longshot who was fading fast in second place. In the stretch, Mad For Plaid was game, but Spacy Tracy ran her down to win by 1-3/4 lengths. These two were so dominant that the third place horse #3 Secret Potion was eight lengths behind Mad For Plaid.

I bet $250 on Spacy Tracy and picked up $875, but profited only $325 because I also had $300 on the Mike Mitchell-trained #14 To Hot for You, who ran poorly at 5/1. 

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for Maiden King. Not to be duplicated or reprinted, especially by a website called Our Blogs Kentucky Derby Everything You Need To Know.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

 

 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Global Inspiration (CA) Baze M Mendoza J 39.40 10
2 2 Poolside (CA) Quinonez A Periban J 50.00 7
3 3 Secret Potion (CA) Bejarano R Hollendorfer J 7.00 3
4 4 Be an Angel (KY) Delgadillo A Sherman A 16.90 12
5 5 Castillon (CA) Flores D Moger, Jr. E 20.40 11
7 6 Mad for Plaid (KY) Baze T Miller P 2.90 2
9 7 Atticutie (AZ) Contreras B Fiscal S 98.40 13
10 8 Tahitian Bluff (KY) Sorenson D Glatt M 18.00 5
11 9 Spacy Tracy (KY) Rosario J Tekos, Jr. A 2.50 1
12 10 Cape Moonlight (CA) Garcia M DeLima J 7.80 8
13 11 Lola Rastaquaire (CA) Stra K Dupuis J 102.40 9
14 12 To Hot for You (FL) Gryder A Mitchell M 5.10 4
15 13 Whatafantasy (CA) Valdez F O’Neill D 28.00 6
SCR Rio Revelde (CA)    
SCR Grand Symphony (KY)    
 
Pgm Win Place Show
11 $7.00 $3.80 $3.00
7 $4.20 $3.20
3 $3.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $13.20 (11-7)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $143.20 (11-1-11)

Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 6 — 3:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s +, f & m

Possible overlays                       Morning line

#11 Spacy Tracy                              6/1
#14 To Hot for You                           9/2

Mike Mitchell adds blinkers to #14 To Hot for You, who has shown early speed in previous races. This filly is making her fourth start and has been steadily dropping in class. She had came back from a seven-month layoff on April 19 and may be a lot better than she looks in her past performances.

Mitchell is winning at a 36 percent clip with maiden claimers and won six out of the last 12 times he added blinkers for the first time.  If that’s not strong then I don’t know what is.

Also, second-time starter #11 Spacy Tracy has a couple of quick workouts on her way back from more than a year away from racing. In her January 2008 debut, she ran a 78 Beyer Speed Figure while showing superior early speed to any of the other fillies and mares in here.

I will bet $500 to win on #14 To Hot for You at 2/1 to 7/2 but just $300 at 4/1 and higher.  Also, I want $250 to win on #11 Spacy Tracy at 2/1 to 9/1 only.

This story is written exclusively for Maiden King and cannot be duplicated or reprinted, especially by website Our Blogs Kentucky Derby Everything You Need to Know.

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 4 — lost $450

Rafael Bejarano pressed the pace then drew off with #4 Sweetpea

Rafael Bejarano pressed the pace then drew off with #4 Sweetpea

Of this bunch, she seemed like the most likely winner and #4 Sweetpea didn’t disappoint her backers as this 8-to-5 shot stalked the leader then poured it on in the stretch. 

In the betting, Sweetpea was the second choice to #7 Sindyfromsantacruz for most of the betting period. But in the final flash, Sweetpea’s odds declined to 8-to-5 favoritism. Sindyfromsantacruz ran a terrible race. She sat in mid pack and did not respond when jockey Tyler Baze whipped her entering the stretch.

As the race began, #1 Mum Z shot to the front and held the lead until the stretch. But that’s when Sweetpea came a-calling and kicked it into high gear. By the time she hit the wire, her widening margin had reached 7-1/2 lengths over second-place finisher #5 Lion Princess.

I bet $300 on #7 Sindyfromsantacruz and $150 on #1 Mum Z.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

© Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for Maiden King. Not to be duplicated or reprinted, especially by website Our Blogs Kentucky Derby Everything You Need To Know.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Mum Z (KY) Smith M Shirreffs J 5.50 7
3 2 She’s Very Rare (CA) Gryder A Warren D 24.70 3
4 3 Sweetpea (FL) Bejarano R Ayers R 1.80 1
5 4 Lion Princess (KY) Rosario J West T 4.10 2
6 5 St. Rosalind (KY) Hill C Headley G 58.10 6
7 6 Sindyfromsantacruz (KY) Baze T Mitchell M 1.90 4
8 7 Guided Wave (KY) Sorenson D Gallagher P 11.00 5
SCR Always Pretty (FL) Talamo J Meredith D
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $5.60 $3.00 $2.40
5 $4.00 $3.20
3 $6.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $6.60 (1-2-4)
$

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 10 — won $1,750

imgres2Some trainers know the betting tendencies of the public and they use the information to help get prices on their horses.

In the April 19 Daily Racing Form Simulcast Weekly, Darrell Vienna was the profiled trainer. In a chart labeled “Vital Statistics,” Vienna’s training numbers were broken down into 37 categories. And Vienna had long-term money making statistics in 18 of the 25 categories that showed him with 10 starters or more.

In the body of the story, it hinted that one reason Vienna’s horses pay so well is that he works his runners out on the deeper dirt surface of the Santa Anita training track rather than the main track that most use. The horses get fit, but their times are slow, which may cause bettors to stay away.

On Sunday, Vienna brought #3 Chic Chick off a nine-month layoff to win the tenth race. This 5-year-old mare had run decently versus maiden special weight company last year and was now dropping into $25,000 maiden claiming, yet she still paid $9.

The public, in general, doesn’t like risking their money on horses that were laid off for long stretches. And I’m sure they like these comebackers even less if their workouts are all slow or nondescript.

Sunday’s race by Chic Chick was only a race until midstretch when jockey Joel Rosario found a seam and, as race caller Trevor Denman enthusiastically described, “exploded thorough on the inside.” 

Chic Chick then pulled away from the pack and closed out the meet in style.

I bet $500 on #3 Chic Chick and was prepared to bet $200 on #7 Hannah’s Moment, but she was bet below my minimum 3/1 price. I collected $2,250 and profited $1,750. 

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Christy’s Bullet (CA) Solis A Dominguez C 2.50 2
3 2 Chic Chick (CA) Rosario J Vienna D 3.50 1
4 3 Judge in the West (CA) Baze T Schiewe P 13.80 5
5 4 A Fine Time (KY) Talamo J Robbins J 24.00 8
6 5 Classic Demand (CA) Garcia M Eurton P 5.10 3
7 6 Hannah’s Moment (CA) Bejarano R Periban J 2.90 4
11 7 Girl of Mine (CA) Rios J Knapp S 10.50 7
12 8 She’s a Single (CA) Sorenson D Bernstein D 14.00 6
SCR Cee’s Harmony (CA)    
SCR Sister Lucy (CA)    
SCR Ms Honkytonk Woman (CA) Martin G Shidaker D
SCR Ata Honour (KY) Gryder A Burnison E
Pgm Win Place Show
3 $9.00 $4.40 $3.20
1 $3.60 $2.80
6 $4.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $11.90

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 4 — lost $200

Jockey Joel Rosario got nailed on the wire by #2 Saint's Crown

Jockey Joel Rosario got nailed on the wire by #2 Saint's Crown

You almost never see it.

A horse sets the pace down the backstretch then clearly gets passed in the lane. But all of a sudden, the runner who was seemingly left for dead, wakes up and comes with a furious rally to win the race.

However, that’s just what happened when #2 Saint’s Crown shot up the inside to catch #4 Justalittletipsy on the wire.  Ridden by Pedro Arambula, who notched just his third win of the year, Saint’s Crown took the field down the backstretch and led on the turn.

But Joel Rosario and Justalittletipsy kicked it into gear and took over by a half a length at the top of the stretch. This filly seemed poised to pull away.

But Saint’s Crown was competitive and wanted the victory more. She kept battling on the inside and prevailed.

I bet $200 on #4 Justalittletipsy and was prepared to bet $300 on #7 Xtraordinary, but she fell just below my 2/1 minimum price.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Ms Paint It Black (CA) Williams D Shidaker D 60.70 6
2 2 Saint’s Crown (KY) Arambula P Sherlock G 3.80 1
3 3 Ice Veins (CA) Hill C Ortiz A 16.90 7
4 4 Justalittletipsy (FL) Rosario J Miller P 3.80 2
5 5 Tiz Salsa (PA) Bejarano R Lloyd J 2.20 4
6 6 Village Lady (CA) Delgadillo A O’Callaghan C 20.00 3
7 7 Xtraordinary (TX) Quinonez A Mollica M 1.90 5
 
Pgm Win Place Show
2 $9.60 $4.60 $3.80
4 $4.40 $4.20
6 $8.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $21.50 (2-4)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $87.00 (5-2-2)
$1.00

  

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 2:03 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 4 yo and up, f&m

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#4 Justalittletipsy                              9/2
#5 Tiz Salsa                                     2/1
#7 Xtraordinary                                5/2

The main question with #5 Tiz Salsa is why did trainer Jerry Hollendorfer give this filly up? Usually when a horse goes from a successful trainer to a low-percentage conditioner the horse doesn’t run as well. And the ownership of Thomas and York is the same as it was on Feb. 16, so this runner was not just purchased.

Absolutely, Tiz Salsa has the Beyer Speed Figures to win this race, but is this the same horse that Hollendorfer trained? I think not.

So the next best two horses are #7 Xtraordinary and #4 Justalittletipsy. Xtraordinary has a bit of speed and has run well enough in the past to win at this level. She’s had 11 races, but 8 of them were at maiden special weight and she faced allowance horses once.

Peter Miller trains #4 Justalittletipsy, who came on with a good charge in the stretch in her debut. With better position early in the race, she might improve enough to win.

I will bet $200 on #4 Justalittletipsy from 5/2 to 9/1 and $300 on #7 Xtraordinary from 2/1 to 7/2.

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 4 — lost $600

Jockey Danny Sorenson rallied first timer #4 Treadwell for the win

Jockey Danny Sorenson rallied first timer #4 Treadwell for the win

Jockey Danny Sorenson sat in mid pack then unleashed a rally in the stretch to get first-time starter #4 Treadwell to the winner’s circle.

Favorite #3 Total Sum ran a decent race coming off a 14-month layoff — and jockey Joe Talamo was all over him in the stretch — but Total Sum lost by a neck when he couldn’t get by the winner.

In hindsight, the key to this race may have been the low Beyer Speed Figures showing in these horses’ past performances. The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is a 74, but the best overall sprint Beyer on this surface for these runners was just a 68.

In light of that, maybe the first time starter Treadwell’s chances could have been upgraded. But no use dwelling on the past because both Bob Baffert and Mike Mitchell have runners going today that may be live.

In this race, I bet $400 on #3 Total Sum and $200 on #7 Lago de Oro.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Winterscore (CA) Baze T Stute M 4.80 3
2 2 Big Water (CA) Quinonez A Pilmer T 5.10 5
3 3 Total Sum (CA) Talamo J Ellis R 1.60 2
4 4 Treadwell (KY) Sorenson D Bell, II T 8.60 1
5 5 Pure Green (OR) Arambula P Schiewe P 59.40 6
6 6 Road to the Throne (KY) Martin G Johnson E 74.30 7
7 7 Lago de Oro (FL) Baze M Scolamieri S 2.10 4
8 8 Some Kinda Monster (CA) Puglisi I Schwizer M 48.70 8
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $19.20 $6.40 $4.60
3 $3.60 $3.00
1 $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $30.90 (4-3)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $68.70 (5-7-4)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $111.10 (2/6-4/5-7-4)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $337.20 (4-3-1-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $141.70 (4-3-1)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $107.80 (7-4)

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 2:03 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                               Morning line

#3 Total Sum                                             5/2
#7 Lago de Oro                                          3/1

Five of these eight colts and geldings are coming off of recent long layoffs, but the two best look like #3 Total Sum and #7 Lago de Oro.

Total Sum is trained by Ron Ellis who has had success with maiden claimers coming off long layoffs, especially when they are making their third lifetime starts. In February 2008, Total Sum came up the inside on his own power to press the pace in a $40,000 maiden claiming race, so he has the necessary speed to win here. This horse’s Beyer Speed Figures of 58 and 54 look weak considering that most of these races are won by a 74 or better.

But Total Sum posted his numbers early in his 3-year-old season, so his natural maturity should allow him to run faster.

Lago de Oro came off a 10-month break on Feb. 20 where he earned a 61 Beyer Speed Figure while showing a bit of early speed at this same class level. On March 13, he also ran a 61, but at the start Lago de Oro bumped another horse slightly, showed speed while four or five wide on the turn, then had no stretch punch. I adjusted his Beyer Speed Figure to 69 because of the trouble and he looks like he may put it all together today.  

Although #1 Winterscore’s speed is dangerous, I don’t think he can run with Total Sum or Lago de Oro. Trainer Mel Stute likes to run them into shape and he upgrades jockeys on Winterscore from Delgadillo to Tyler Baze. I would consider this horse if both Total Sum and Lago de Oro were dead on the board.

Big Water, #2, looks like he’d like 6-1/2 or 7 furlongs much better and first timers that look like #4 Treadwell don’t win often enough to make them  worthwhile bets.

I will wager $400 on #3 Total Sum at 7/2 or less and $200 on Lago de Oro at 2/1 to 7/2 only.

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 3 — won $330

faqIt seems to me that there is no more realistic trainer in the game than Mike Mitchell. A few years ago, I remember a horse owned by Overbrook Farm that ran several times at maiden special weight, but just wasn’t good enough to win at that class. Since Overbrook Farm is mainly a breeding operation, the owners were reluctant to enter their horse in a claiming race and risk losing him.

And gelding him? That was completely out of the question.

Enter Mike Mitchell.

Mitchell talked one of his owners into buying the horse in a private sale. The trainer quickly gelded the animal, dropped it into a claiming race, and watched it win convincingly.

So, it’s no coincidence that Mitchell is winning with 37 percent of his maiden claimers. He knows how to get the job done.

In this race, #11 Bostoner was running in his tenth lifetime start, but nine of those were in maiden special weights. Zayat Stables, Bostoner’s owners, paid $360,000 for the horse as a yearling in 2006 and were very patiently waiting for him to learn how to run.

Dale Romans trained Bostoner on the East Coast and Mid West during 2007-2008, then Zayat sent the 4-year-old colt to Mitchell this January. Mitchell seemingly tried everything to appease the powerful Zayat Stables, who also owns Pioneerof The Nile: He ran Bostoner once on the grass, once in a main track route and then tried him in a sprint against lower quality maiden special weight horses at Golden Gate.

In his nine races, Bostoner never finished better than third and never broke 80 on the Beyer scale. So, it seemed painfully obvious that Bostoner wasn’t going to suddenly wake up and start winning stakes races.

Bostoner was nothing more than a claimer and Mitchell knew it. Although the colt couldn’t win at higher levels, he ran fast enough in a majority of his previous races to win most low-level maiden claimers in Southern California.

So, on Sunday, Mitchell dropped Bostoner into a $25,000 maiden claiming sprint where the colt was finally running where he belonged.

In the race, jockey Rafael Bejarano battled for the lead down the backstretch, Bostoner took over in the lane then hung tough to the wire. When it was over, Zayat Stables had moved Bostoner out of the maiden ranks, while Mitchell fattened up his already bloated winning percentage even more.

But Bostoner only paid $4.40 because all of Mitchell’s live ones seem to be bet to 5/2 or below. On the site, I wagered $400 to win on #11 Bostoner and $150 on #6 Don’t Forget Mug at 4/1. I profited $330 after collecting $880.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Heywatchulookingat (CA) Gladney D Montes D 112.00 8
2 2 Figo (CA) Williams D Bradvica L 71.40 11
3 3 Little Bro (CA) Enriquez I DeLima J 26.30 2
5 4 Ask George (CA) Baze T Mulhall K 17.70 5
6 5 Don’t Forget Muq (CA) Rosario J Monteleone F 4.10 6
7 6 Precaper (CA) Vergara O Avila A 54.50 7
8 7 Lethal Dose (CA) Stra K Martinez S 12.00 3
9 8 Leavin in a Limo (CA) Gryder A Koriner B 2.70 4
11 9 Bostoner (KY) Bejarano R Mitchell M 1.20 1
12 10 Thunder Bubbles (CA) Martin G Flores F 144.00 10
14 11 Lenador (KY) Hill C O’Neill D 14.90 9
SCR Warrington (CA) Arambula P Becerra R
SCR Degreko (CA) Garcia M Periban J
SCR Delicato (KY)    
 
Pgm Win Place Show
11 $4.40 $3.40 $2.80
3 $17.80 $11.00
8 $5.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $45.70 (11-3)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $177.40 (2-4-11)
$1.00 Superfecta

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 3 — 1:31 post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                                 Morning line

#6 Don’t Forget Muq                                   6/1
#11 Bostoner                                             5/2
#14 Lenador                                             12/1

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is a 74 and #11 Bostoner has met or exceeded that number in four of his nine races. The problem was that this horse has been running in maiden special weight races on the grass and even tried a route on the main track.

Mike Mitchell took over the training of Bostoner in January and I’m sure he was reluctant to drop him into claiming because the horse was purchased by the Zayat Stables for $360,000. But after trying grass, a main track route and even shipping to the weaker fields at Golden Gate, it was time to face reality and enter the horse at a class level where it realistically can win.

And nobody’s better with a maiden claimer in Southern California than Mitchell, who has won with 25 of his last 68 maiden claimers or 36 percent.

Others who have a shot are #6 Don’t Forget Muq and #14 Lenador. Trained by Frank Monteleone, Don’t Forget Muq is coming off five-months of rest and relaxation. He’s got the best quarter mile speed in the race, which means something at 5-1/2 furlongs. Lenador is also coming back after a long break. He ran a 70 Beyer Speed Figure on July 12, which was his last time out.

I will bet $400 to win on Bostoner at 5/2 or less, but nothing on him at 3/1 or more. Also, I will take $150 to win on whoever goes off at a lower price in the range of 4/1 to 9/1 between #4 Don’t Forget Muq and #14 Lenador. But if Bostoner is 3/1 or more, I’ll put $150 on both Don’t Forget Muq and Lenador only at 4/1 and 9/1.

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 3 — 1:31 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                                     Morning line

#8 Smokin Anne                                             3/1

A few horses, in their previous races, have exceeded the median winning Beyer Speed Figure of 68 for this level.

Speed horse #6 Hannah’s Moment ran a 73 Beyer on Jan. 3 when she was loose on the lead against $40,000 maiden claimers. A 7-year-old maiden, #7 Shezbad is coming off a 21-month layoff, but four of her five races in 2006-07 met or exceeded a 68 Beyer. And the 2-to-1 morning line favorite, #11 River Spey finished third on Jan. 30 while running a 73.

However, I am focusing on  #8 Smokin Anne. This 5-year-old mare has been off for 2-1/2 years, but showed good speed as a 2-year-old while finishing second against 10 maiden special weight rivals. Trainer Robert Hess has put a couple of quick workouts into her and if she’s well bet I will take it as a positive.

Therefore, I will wager $350 to win on #8 Smokin Anne at 2/1 to 7/2 only.

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 9 — won $1,260

money-bags

Of the three lightly-raced horses coming from recent long layoffs — #4 Queen Mariles, #7 Crooked Smile and #11 Ampys Lil Girl — I liked Queen Mariles the best because she had the quickest early speed.

But I wasn’t going to bet if the odds were too low or if she was too cold on the board. So I waited, waited and waited as her odds held slightly above my 2/1 to 7/2 range for much of the betting period. Then finally, with a minute or two to post, late money poured in and it was likely that the odds on Queen Mariles would stick below 4-to-1.

Meanwhile, #7 Crooked Smile was hammered from 9-to-2 on the morning line to 7-to-5 early. She drifted up to 2-to-1 then 5-to-2 and finally went off at 3-to-1. So, two of my horses were in the odds zone, but speed was the deciding factor to sway me to Queen Mariles at 7-to-2.

When the bell finally rang, Crooked Smile popped from the gate, but Queen Mariles willingly established herself as the clear leader on the backstretch. Jockey Mike Smith took a comfortable lead into the lane and nobody got within a length of this filly the rest of the way.

I bet $350 to win on Queen Mariles and got back $1,610.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 To Bee Grand (CA) Quinonez A O’Neill D 33.20 9
2 2 Hot ‘n Lacey (CA) Potts C Palma H 80.70 8
3 3 More Than Music (KY) Gomez G Walsh K 2.60 3
4 4 Queen Mariles (KY) Smith M Headley B 3.60 1
5 5 Ms Honkytonk Woman (CA) Martin G Shidaker D 93.00 10
6 6 Christy’s Bullet (CA) Bejarano R Dominguez C 10.60 2
7 7 Crooked Smile (KY) Espinoza V Hess, Jr. R 3.00 5
9 8 Digital Magic (KY) Baze M Guillot E 15.10 6
10 9 Snowflake Obsidian (KY) Baze T O’Neill D 10.80 4
11 10 Ampys Lil Girl (CA) Rosario J West T 5.00 7
SCR Black Point (KY)    
 
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $9.20 $4.80 $3.40
6 $8.00 $4.40
3 $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $44.70 (4-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $145.

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 1 — lost $200

Jockey Joel Rosario went wire-to-wire on #5 I am Madison's

Jockey Joel Rosario went wire-to-wire on #5 I am Madison's

Horses that have flashed a fast first quarter mile in a previous race are usually good bets in sprints shorter than 6-1/2 furlongs. The one exception I found is if they are lightly raced runners facing older maidens.

However in just his third lifetime start, #5 I am Madison’s bounded from the gate and was so game that jockey Joel Rosario had his feet on the dashboard down the backstretch, as he tried to ration this gelding’s energy. The Jack Carava trainee led the other 11 runners by two lengths on the turn then Rosario let his mount loose in the stretch.

None of the other runners mounted a challenge to this 7-to-2 shot until #8 Goodlookindude came charging with about 50 yards to go, but missed by a neck.

I was looking for 5/1 to 10/1 on six horses including #5 I am Madison’s, but only one of my contenders fit into the odds zone. So I ended up with $200 to win on #9 Smokin’ Stogies, who finished fifth.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Aeronautics (CA) Garcia M Velasquez D 39.80 6
2 2 Captain Charisma (CA) Potts C Aguirre P 11.30 11
3 3 Leavin in a Limo (CA) Baze R Koriner B 2.50 3
4 4 Far Turn (CA) Arambula P Rickerd P 80.60 10
5 5 I Am Madison’s (CA) Rosario J Carava J 3.50 1
6 6 Trenton’s a Tease (CA) Enriquez I Warren D 19.80 7
7 7 Vicar’s Walk (KY) Sorenson D Gallagher P 51.60 9
8 8 Goodlookindude (FL) Stra K Martinez S 10.20 2
9 9 Smokin’ Stogies (KY) Puglisi I Hofmans D 7.80 5
10 10 Kyle Draws Aces (CA) Smith M Miller P 20.60 12
12 11 Military Power (KY) Flores D Machowsky M 21.50 8
13 12 Judge Kent (FL) Baze T Miller P 3.90 4
SCR Niger River (CA) Solis A Fernandez V
SCR Road to the Throne (KY)    
 
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $9.00 $5.20 $3.80
8 $10.00 $5.80
3 $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $43.00 (5-8)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $521.30 (5-8-3-13

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 1 — noon post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#2 Captain Charisma                      12/1
#3 Leavin in a Limo                         5/1
#5 I am Madison’s                           5/1
#9 Smokin’ Stogies                          6/1
 #12 Military Power                         10/1
#13 Judge Kent                              7/2

This 13-horse competitive opener looks like it could be won by any of several runners. So I’ll need decent odds for any and all wagers.

First, #5 I am Madison’s is talented and has good early speed, which is always dangerous. He could win, but many of the others have more seasoning. 

Like I am Madison’s, #3 Leavin in a Limo has only had three races, which is a knock in these claiming sprints for older horses. My median Beyer Speed Figure and the DRF’s Beyer par are a matching 74, so Leavin in a Limo fits, as he followed a 76 Beyer in his Dec. 28 debut with a 73 on Feb. 8. 

Trained by David Hofmans, #9 Smokin Stogies has been working out well and is dropping from maiden special weight after a 10-month layoff. Also, #12 Military Power, trained by Mike Machowsky, is running his second race after eight months away from the races.  Machowsky has an excellent record with recently laid off maidens.

Two others that must be considered at the right price are #2 Captain Charisma and #13 Judge Kent. 

I will bet $200 to win on the highest three odds horses that are between 5/1 and 10/1 of #2 Captain Charisma, #3 Leavin in a Limo, #5 I am Madison’s, #9 Smokin’ Stogies, #12 Military Power and #13 Judge Kent.

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 3 — won $770

financial-etfs-bailout

I see two keys to this race: the first was the continued improvement of Gale in the Vale after her 11-month layoff, and the second was jockey Joe Talamo’s ability to ration this filly’s speed through a first quarter mile in 23.02 seconds. After not struggling through the first two furlongs, Gale in the Vale had enough left for the remaining five-eighths of a mile to resist the closing rush of #6 Keira’s Way.

At the start, Talamo did not gun Gale in the Vale to the lead, but instead eased her up to the front. About a furlong or so into the race, Gale in the Vale got the lead and stayed there throughout.

The 9-to-5 favorite, #6 Keira’s Way, who finished second, did not make an impact until the final 100 yards when she came with a burst to miss by about a half a length.

I bet $350 on Gale in the Vale and collected $1,120.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Ata Honour (KY) Flores D Burnison E 5.30 7
2 2 Gale in the Vale (MD) Talamo J Zucker H 2.20 1
3 3 Smiling Bubbles (CA) Russell C Valenzuela, Jr. M 48.50 8
4 4 Lil Troublemaker (CA) Gavica G Soto A 64.90 3
5 5 Krypton Ranger (CA) Garcia M Garcia O 22.40 5
6 6 Keira’s Way (KY) Potts C Lucarelli F 1.80 2
7 7 Secret Potion (CA) Rosario J Hollendorfer J 2.80 4
9 8 Village Lady (CA) Couton J O’Callaghan C 32.70 6
SCR Elsa’s Rose (CA) Sutherland C Sherlock G
 
Pgm Win Place Show
2 $6.40 $3.20 $3.40
6 $3.00 $2.60
4 $10.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $13.50 (2-7-8)
$1.00 Exacta paid $8.80 (2-6)
$1.

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 3 — 1:31 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 7 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#2 Gale in the Vale                         5/2
#6 Keira’s Way                               2/1

On Feb. 13, #2 Gale in the Vale came off an 11-month layoff and showed a bit of speed in a 6-furlong race before fading. This filly has only run three times in her life and early in her 3-year-old year she ran a 62 and a 64 Beyer Speed Figure.

She wasn’t good enough to win the two $75,000 maiden claiming races she competed in, but Gale in the Vale’s figures could have won the average $40,000 3-year-old maiden claimer. Trainer Howard Zucker gave her a couple of good workouts  in January and this horse should be able to run a low-to-mid 70’s Beyer soon.

Her main competition is #6 Keira’s Way. This filly has the running style that wins these type of 7 furlong races.  She’s dropping in class and has run fast enough in her previous races to win a race like this.

I will bet $350 on #2 Gale in the Vale if she is 2/1 to 7/2, and $200 on her if she is 4/1 and up.

If Gale in the Vale is bet below 2/1, then I want $200 to win on #6 Keira’s Way at 2/1 or higher.

Results, Santa Anita Friday Race 8 — won $100

spare_changeThe good news is my horse won and paid $7.

The bad news is that I played so many horses that I only won $100.

I bet $300 to win on #4 Elusive Chief and got back $1,050 when he rallied better than #5 Stray Cat, as they both ran in lockstep to catch #3 I Am Madison’s near the finish. But I also put $200 on #12 The Emerald King at 7-to-1, $250 on #11 High and Mighty at 9-to-1 and $200 on 8-to-1 shot I Am Madison’s.

If only I left two of those losing horses out on the principle that you can’t bet more than two runners if one of them is less than 4-to-1. Then I would have at least won $500 and I could have put a decent photo with this story. Maybe a round roll of hundreds, or maybe 10 hundred dollar bills folded once and fastened with a shiny, gold money clip.

Instead, the only accurate illustration of the results of this race is a handful of spare change.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Big Water (CA) Scott J Pilmer T 101.20 9
2 2 Lago de Oro (FL) Baze T Scolamieri S 18.50 7
3 3 I Am Madison’s (CA) Garcia M Carava J 8.40 3
4 4 Elusive Chief (VA) Bejarano R Hess, Jr. R 2.50 1
5 5 Stray Cat (KY) Rosario J Headley B 2.80 2
6 6 Cut (KY) Linares M Stutts C 64.10 10
7 7 Sur Brio (CA) Delgadillo A Garcia V 39.00 5
8 8 Sky Ruler (CA) Sutherland C Knapp S 15.80 11
9 9 Golden Delight (CA) Talamo J Spawr W 22.40 12
10 10 Degreko (CA) Rios J Pender M 7.60 8
11 11 High and Mighty (KY) Stra K Cassidy J 9.10 6
12 12 The Emerald King (CA) Sorenson D Monteleone F 7.10 4
 
Pgm Win Place Show
4 $7.00 $3.40 $2.40
5 $3.60 $3.00
3 $5.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $11.50 (4-5)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $