Results, Del Mar Thursday Race 4 — lost $150

Trainer Brian Koriner teamed with Joe Talamo to get the money in Del Mar's 4th

Trainer Brian Koriner teamed with Joe Talamo to get the money in Del Mar's 4th

In a ride that would have made Calvin Borel proud, jockey Joe Talamo steered #11 Subpoena the Dress onto the rail on the turn then gunned her up the inside in the stretch to win going away at 9-to-2.

As the race began, Subpoena the Dress broke alertly on the outside then faded toward the back of the pack, far behind pace setters #6 Eclipse Sarah and #7 Kaylie’s Joy.

Garrett Gomez tracked the leaders in third with #4 Brilliant Response at 9-to-2 and she surged three-wide on the turn to take the lead at the top of the stretch. But just as she had in her previous two races, Brilliant Response had nothing in the lane and could only muster a third-place finish.

Trainer Tim Yakteen, who has two wins at Del Mar from just a handful of starters, had #8 Makit Till Midnite ready to run. This 16-to-1 shot came on the outside with a steady rally to capture the place money.

A well-bet 2-to-1 shot, #1 Lady Alex was a recent claim by John Sadler and she seemed to have tons of run while jockey Joel Rosario sat her on the rail in fourth. But in the stretch Lady Alex was pinned behind a wall of horses and didn’t find running room until it was too late. 

I had a lot of betting scenarios that were tied to the post time odds. In the end, I ended up  with $150 to win on #7 Kaylie’s Joy at 4-to-1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Lady Alex (CA) Rosario J Sadler J 2.00 5
2 2 Angel of Mystery (CA) Espinoza V Marquez A 9.90 7
3 3 Straight Sue (CA) Vergara O Fanning J 33.80 11
4 4 Brilliant Response (CA) Gomez G Gaines C 4.60 3
5 5 Party With Brando (CA) Pedroza M Abrams B 28.50 4
6 6 Eclipse Syrah (CA) Baze T Sherlock G 18.80 10
7 7 Kaylie’s Joy (CA) Valdez F Dominguez C 4.30 8
8 8 Makit Till Midnite (CA) Sorenson D Yakteen T 16.30 2
9 9 Mystic Trip (CA) Stra K Martin, Jr. F 61.60 9
10 10 Alphabet Cat (CA) Santiago Reyes C Moreno H 21.30 6
11 11 Subpoena the Dress (CA) Talamo J Koriner B 4.80 1
Pgm Win Place Show
11 $11.60 $6.80 $4.60
8 $15.40 $8.00
4 $3.80
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $105.90 (11-8)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $84.50 (6-8-11)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $15221.90 (11-8-4-5)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $749.10 (11-8-4)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $68.40 (8-11)
$2.00 Quinella paid $139.00 (8-11)

Thursday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, F

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#1 Lady Alex                                7/2
#2 Angel of Mystery                      6/1
#4 Brilliant Response                     3/1
#7 Kaylie’s Joy                              5/1
#11 Subpoena the Dress                 4/1

Of the last 184 horses jockey Joel Rosario rode for trainer John Sadler, 40 of them won and anybody betting them all would have pocketed $1.39 for every $1 wagered. The two combine on #1 Lady Alex, who Sadler claimed from Brian Koriner on June 14. This filly earned a 64 Beyer Speed Figure after breaking from post position #11 in that June race, so she wouldn’t need to improve much to get to the 72 median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class.

In #2 Angel of Mystery’s last race on July 9, she seemed to have tons of run, but was parked behind a wall of horses throughout the stretch. Rosario was aboard that day, but he decided to ride Lady Alex today instead.

Jockey Garrett Gomez takes the mount on #4 Brilliant Response, who’s been bet below 3-to-1 in each of her last three races. She has good speed, but has repeatedly burned money while getting perfect trips. With Gomez riding, she figures to also be well bet today.

The low-profile connections of trainer Caesar Dominguez and jockey Felipe Valdez seem like they might offer value with #7 Kaylie’s Joy. She also has excellent speed and Kaylie’s Joy owns the best last race Beyer Speed Figure of 70.

Breaking from the far outside, #11 Subpoena the Dress showed a good half mile burst in her June 26 race, but could not sustain it. Trainer Brian Koriner rides Joe Talamo and those two have combined for 33 wins out of their last 159 runners for a return of $1.13 for every $1 bet.

I will bet $150 to win on both #1 Lady Alex and #7 Kaylie’s Joy both at 3/1 or more only.  If the odds on one of those two horses falls below the betting range, then I will put $150 on #4 Brilliant Response at 2/1 to 7/2 only, and if both Lady Alex and Kaylie’s Joy are below the range I’ll also bet $150 on #11 Subpoena the Dress at 6/1 or better.

Results, Del Mar Wednesday Race 1 — won $1,375

imgresBy looking at the post time odds, it’s easy to see that the public could not separate these horses. Six of the seven fillies were between 9-to-2 and 8-to-1 with only #5 Stevie’s Afleet, an 8-to-5 shot, being bet out of that range.

As the race began, #1 Auntgrace battled for the lead inside of Stevie’s Afleet with #6 Hard Eight just a half a length away. They ran that way until the top of the stretch when Hard Eight faded and both #3 Miss Anime and #7 Ancillary made their late runs.

Jockey Brice Blanc, who was riding Miss Anime, couldn’t find daylight in early stretch, so he was forced to take the filly seven paths wide in midstretch. Just inside of Miss Anime was Ancillary with Joel Rosario aboard. These two rallied past Auntgrace, who was nailed for third by #2 Bit of a Lady cruising up the rail.

In my race preview, I noted that second time starters that look like Miss Anime are good bets at 5/2 to 9/1 and I wagered $250 on her. But I also had another $350 spread over three other horses. Anyway, I collected $1,975 and profited $1,375 on the race. 

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Auntgrace (FL) Gryder A Mullins J 5.60 4
2 2 Bit of a Lady (KY) Baze T Hofmans D 7.20 3
3 3 Miss Anime (KY) Blanc B Powell L 6.90 1
4 4 Sheza Screamer (WA) Baze M Troeger R 8.40 5
5 5 Stevie’s Afleet (KY) Garcia M Cerin V 1.70 7
6 6 Hard Eight (KY) Smith M Headley B 5.80 6
7 7 Ancillary (KY) Rosario J Jones M 4.90 2
 
Pgm Win Place Show
3 $15.80 $7.20 $5.40
7 $6.20 $3.80
2 $4.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $48.20 (3-7)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $328.80 (3-7-2)
$2.00 Quinella paid $47.80 (3-7)

Wednesday, Del Mar Race 1 — 2 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $50,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, F

Possible overlays                  Morning line
#1 Auntgrace                                5/1
#3 Miss Anime                             6/1
#4 Sheza Screamer                     8/1
#7 Ancillary                                  7/2
The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 71 and second-time starter #3 Miss Anime was not far off on June 19 when running a 65. This type of horse fits well if in the 5/2 to 9/1 betting range.

Breaking from the rail for trainer Jeff Mullins, #1 Auntgrace is coming off a recent layoff and dropping in class. Today might be the day and I will be looking for tote board betting action to provide more clues.

Owner Bruno De Julio, who is the workout analyst for Today’s Racing Digest, has done well when his horses run first time and second time out. His runner, #4 Sheza Screamer, doesn’t fit the profile of a winning first time starter at all, but is probably worth a small bet based on De Julio’s record, but only if the price is right.

Finally, #7 Ancillary showed good speed in her last start on June 28 and that’s important at this distance.

I will wager $150 on #1 Auntgrace at 2/1 to 7/2 only and just $100 at 4/1 to 9/1.  On #3 Miss Anime, I’ll bet $250 to win at 5/2 to 9/1 and I want $50 to win on #4 Sheza Screamer at 8/1 to 19/1. Lastly, I will put $200 on #7 Ancillary at 5/2 and up.

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 1 — lost $550

Jockey Tyler Baze rallied Box Office Star from 6 lengths back to take Sunday's opener

Jockey Tyler Baze rallied Box Office Star from 6 lengths back to take Sunday's opener

It’s not often that the 5-to-2 morning line favorite goes off at 6-to-1 and wins the race. But that’s exactly what happened when #5 Box Office Star rallied to win Sunday’s first race.

Box Office Star, trained by Tim Yakteen, ran well in his May 25 debut to earn a 70 Beyer Speed Figure. But horses who have that profile aren’t usually profitable bets so I did not fear this gelding.

Instead, I backed #6 Escaping the Storm and #8 Eisenheim because they were being bet after recent long layoffs. Although they had better long-term angles going for them, they were no match for Box Office Star.

Eisenheim pressed the pace from second then faded in the stretch at 2-to-1 while Escaping the Storm, 3-to-1, rallied up the rail to finish second.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.
 

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 No Caps No Floors (KY) Pedroza M Machowsky M 8.70 7
2 2 Great Raid (KY) Rosario J Kitchingman A 2.60 6
3 3 Learn the Sport (KY) Santiago Reyes C Abrams B 27.20 3
4 4 Justice Reigns (CA) Solis A Lewis L 10.90 4
5 5 Box Office Star (KY) Baze T Yakteen T 6.40 1
6 6 Escaping the Storm (FL) Talamo J Hess, Jr. R 3.20 2
7 7 Bernsie’s Baby (CA) Stra K Van Berg J 65.90 8
8 8 Eisenheim (KY) Gomez G Sadler J 2.30 5
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $14.80 $7.00 $4.20
6 $4.80 $3.80
3 $9.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $29.80 (5-6)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $1831.80 (5-

Sunday, Del Mar Race 1 — 2 pm post time

Maiden King

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Possible Overlays                 Morning line

#1 No Caps No Floors                  15/1
#3 Learn the Sport                     10/1
#4 Justice Reigns                        5/1
#6 Escaping the Storm                3/1
 #8 Eisenheim                             4/1

Three contenders in here are coming off recent layoffs and, at the right prices, I think they are better bets than either #2 Great Raid or the 5-to-2 morning line favorite, #5 Box Office Star.

Garrett Gomez rides #8 Eisenheim and this $250,000 purchase ran five times in the maiden special weight ranks before dropping into a $62,500 claimer on April 24.  In this more realistic spot, Eisenheim led for half of the 6-1/2 furlong race before finishing third. After a two-month break, Eisenheim came back for $40,000 on June 25 at Hollywood Park, but curiously Gomez restrained the colt toward the back of the pack. This sudden change in running style leads me to believe that owner Jerome Moss and trainer John Sadler were saving Eisenheim’s best shot for today at Del Mar.

Robert Hess trains #6 Escaping the Storm who is switching from turf to synthetic after two decent runs in 6 furlong maiden special weight races. When bet, both Hess and Sadler have excellent records with these types of horses.

On June 25, the Lisa Lewis-trained #4 Justice Reigns looked like he was on cruise the whole way, as jockey Alex Solis didn’t appear to be asking the gelding to give his all. In my eyes, this colt looks alot like Escaping the Storm and Eisenheim, although I like the other two more.

I will be watching the toteboard on two second-time starters, #1 No Caps No Floors and #3 Learn the Sport. Both can be safely avoided in the win pool at 10-to-1 or more, but I will give them a chance at 5/2 to 9/1.

At the window, I will play $350 to win on #8 Eisenheim at 2/1 to 7/2, but just $200 at 4/1 or more. On #6 Escaping the Storm, I want $200 to win at 2/1 to 7/2, but just $100 at 4/1 or better. If either of the top are bet below the 2/1 to 7/2 zone, then I want $175 on #4 Justice Reigns at 2/1 or more. 

Also, if Eisenheim or Escaping the Storm are bet below 2/1 then I will also put $50 to win on the longer price of #1 No Caps No Floors and #3 Learn the Sport as long as they are 9/1 or less.

Results, Hollywood Park Sunday Race 6 — lost $700

Trainer Jeff Mullins won with second-time starter #12 I Want My Money

Trainer Jeff Mullins won with second-time starter #12 I Want My Money

Four horses looked like they could win this race, and although they all ran well, second-time starter #12 I Want My Money was clearly the best.

Trainer Jeff Mullins, whose Hollywood Park win rate is hovering around 30 percent, dropped I Want My Money in class from a $50,000 maiden claimer where he debuted on May 21. In that race, I Want My Money was obviously not at his best as jockey Martin Garcia hustled him the whole way, but could only muster a 68 Beyer Speed Figure.

But I Want My Money was working out right along and he had a fast drill on June 6, which set him up well for this win at 7-to-2.

The race began as jockey Tyler Baze shot #5 Gifted Student to the front. This John Sadler runner hadn’t raced since Oct. 13, but Sadler excels at getting horses like this gelding into the winner’s circle. Gifted Student was challenged at the top of the stretch by #14 Quality Plus, another second-timer who had the desirable combination of early speed and the best last race Beyer Speed Figure.

But Gifted Student shook Quality Plus off at the top of the lane to pull ahead by a length. However, Quality Plus fought right back, closing the gap.

Their stretch duel was interrupted by I Want My Money who came blasting up between horses and blew them both away to win by 2-1/2 lengths. Born to Cus, an improving Doug O’Neill runner making his third start at 7-to-1, ran late and won a three-way photo for second.

I put $400 to win on #5 Gifted Student at 6/1. Also, I had $200 to win on #14 Quality Plus, whose odds were 3.0-to-1, but if he’d been bet to 2.9-to-1 instead then my $200 would have shifted to the winner #12 I Want My Money.

I also had $100 to win on #13 Born to Cus.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Truly a Delight (CA) Pedroza M Bernstein D 17.50 8
2 2 Bango (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Periban J 6.70 9
4 3 Street Premier (KY) Arambula P Guillot E 59.00 11
5 4 Gifted Student (CA) Baze T Sadler J 6.30 4
6 5 Turbo Energy (CA) Baze M Barocio L 12.30 5
7 6 Deification (KY) Talamo J Hofmans D 10.50 13
8 7 Santi Santi Santi (KY) Sorenson D Gonzalez S 11.80 7
9 8 Ryland (CA) Delgadillo A Yakteen T 101.60 6
10 9 Illusive Dealer (CA) Sandoval D Fama D 82.00 12
11 10 Tralee Creek (KY) Valdez F DeLima J 74.80 10
12 11 I Want My Money (KY) Garcia M Mullins J 3.90 1
13 12 Born to Cus (CA) Rosario J O’Neill D 7.10 2
14 13 Quality Plus (PA) Nakatani C Hess, Jr. R 3.00 3
SCR Valentine Gift (WA)    
Pgm Win Place Show
12 $9.80 $5.20 $3.60
13 $7.80 $5.00
14 $3.40
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $30.90 (12-13)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $713

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 2 — lost $150

Jockey Agapito Delgadillo and trainer Marty Jones got #2 Kami D B C into the winner's circle

Jockey Agapito Delgadillo and trainer Marty Jones got #2 Kami D B C into the winner's circle

When I took a look at this race, two horses coming off of recent layoffs seemed to have strong chances.

Trainer Mike Puype was bringing back #11 Mar Fina from a one-year vacation, which Puype routinely does both skillfully and profitably. But the morning line on Mar Fina was 7-to-2 and when I looked at the tote board it became clear that Mar Fina probably was not going to run well, as she was an ice cold 9-to-1 going into the gate.

The other filly racing back off a year-long break was #12 Veranda Cafe. Horses running in their second lifetime starts after long stretches away from the races are usually excellent bets — as long as they are at least 2-to-1 and no more than 9-to-1. The price on Veranda Cafe, however, was crushed to 3-to-2 by the betting public, so I could not wager on her either.

That left me with a $150 bet on #3 Sister Lucy who was coming out of two quarter horse races at Los Alamitos. Also, she ran a winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class when she finished third on Oct. 19 in a maiden special weight race.

In the race, Sister Lucy shot to the lead on the backstretch and Veranda Cafe rode her flank while pressing the pace less than a length away.

At the eighth pole, Veranda Cafe took the lead and was three-lengths clear of Kami D B C with a sixteenth of a mile to run. But Veranda Cafe tired badly and faded so fast that she not only lost the race, but she didn’t even hit the board.

Winning was Kami D B C, who was making her twelfth start, but ten of those were in maiden special weight races.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Rio Revelde (CA) Rodriguez N Rodriguez S 188.00 12
2 2 Kami D B C (CA) Delgadillo A Jones M 2.70 1
3 3 Sister Lucy (CA) Sorenson D Breuer D 9.40 4
4 4 Lola Rastaquaire (CA) Couton J Dupuis J 150.60 7
5 5 Annie’s Loaded (CA) Espinoza V Walsh K 13.50 8
6 6 Girl of Mine (CA) Valdez F Knapp S 38.40 2
7 7 Nantucket Mist (KY) Quinonez A Sadler J 16.10 6
8 8 Irish Cowgal (CA) Garcia M O’Callaghan C 94.80 11
9 9 Terra Bella (CA) Flores D Rickerd P 51.40 9
10 10 Aldora (KY) Pedroza M Pender M 6.00 3
11 11 Mar Fina (KY) Talamo J Puype M 9.30 10
12 12 Veranda Cafe (KY) Rosario J Miller P 1.50 5
SCR Sure Nice (CA) Delgadillo A Dunham D
SCR Patiently (KY) Sorenson D Gonzalez S
SCR Bombing Two (CA) Scott J DeLima J
SCR A Beauty in Black (CA) Baze M Semkin S
 
Pgm Win Place Show
2 $7.40 $4.40 $3.20
6 $24.60 $11.60
10 $4.60
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $86.90 (2-6)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $2716.80 (2-6-10-3)
$1.00 Trifecta paid $657.90 (2-6-10)
$2.00 Daily Double paid $13.40 (4-2)
$2.00 Quinella paid $87.80 (2-6)

Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 6 — 3:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#5 Gifted Student                     6/1
#12 I Want My Money               9/2
#13 Born to Cus                       10/1
#14 Quality Plus                       7/2

John Sadler, who trains #5 Gifted Student, has a very good record when bringing older maiden claimers back from long layoffs, especially when they are dropping in class. Gifted Student showed good speed in his debut on Oct. 13, as he was bet to 5/1 and had the lead after a half a mile versus eight others.

Jockey Tyler Baze, a 14 percent rider, is aboard. Baze, however, won with 23 percent of his last 103 mounts for Sadler, so he turns into Garrett Gomez when riding Sadler’s horses. Gifted Student is 6-to-1 on the morning line, but judging from Sadler’s other layoff winners I expect him to be bet to less than 4-to-1.

Breaking from the far outside, #14 Quality Plus is another second-time starter who had the lead for a half mile in his debut. This horse has many things to like: It has good early speed, competent connections and ran a decent Beyer Speed Figure last time. But it seems like the type of horse that will be bet below 3-to-1, which will likely cause me to try to beat it.

Jeff Mullins is one of those Southern California trainers that wins whenever he wants to and can never be totally eliminated. His runner #12 I Want My Money has been working out well and is worth a bet at the right price. The same goes for #13 Born to Cus, who Doug O’Neill bred, owns and trains. Born to Cus adds blinkers and makes a positive jockey switch from Alonso Quinonez to Joel Rosario. With older maiden claimers like these, O’Neill seems to run them into form rather than trying to win early, and Born to Cus seems to be going in the right direction.

I will bet $400 to win on #5 Gifted Student at odds of 2/1 to 9/1 only. Also, I will take $200 to win on #14 Quality Plus at 3/1 or more, but if he is bet below that then I’ll put the $200 on #12 I Want My Money instead, also at 3/1 or better.

Finally, if #13 Born to Cus goes off at 6/1 or better, then I’ll put $100 on him.

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 2 — 1:30 pm

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo & up, F

Possible overlays                      Morning line

#3 Sister Lucy                                   12/1
#11 Mar Fina                                     7/2
#12 Veranda Cafe                              3/1

Without a doubt, the filly with the best early speed is #3 Sister Lucy. In fact, her last two races were 870 yard quarter horse dashes at Los Alamitos.  And she has already run well enough to win at this level. On Oct. 19, Sister Lucy ran a 70 Beyer Speed Figure in a maiden special weight event, which is significant because the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is a 67.

Two fillies coming off recent layoffs — #11 Mar Fina and #12 Veranda Cafe — also have some things to like. Coincidentally, both horses lost to monsters in their previous races, which were both in June 2008. Mar Fina ran into Rachel Alexandra when she broke her maiden and Veranda Cafe was defeated by Evita Argentina.

Trainer Mike Puype, who saddles Mar Fina, has recently excelled at bringing back second and third time starters from long vacations.

And horses who look like Veranda Cafe are excellent wagers when they are bet down a bit.

I will bet $250 to win on #11 Mar Fina at odds of 2/1 to 5/1. But if Mar Fina doesn’t fall into that range, or if #12 Veranda Cafe is a higher price than Mar Fina, then I will bet the $250 on Veranda Cafe instead as long as she is 2/1 to 7/2.

Also, I want $150 to win on #3 Sister Lucy at 9/2 or more.

Results, Hollywood Park Sunday Race 2 — lost $300

Trainer Darrell Vienna did a difficut thing: He won first time out with an older maiden.

Trainer Darrell Vienna did a difficult thing: He won first time out with an older maiden.

Darrell Vienna is a bettors’ best friend. He is low profile, has a decent winning percentage, and his horses pay well when they hit the wire first.

And that’s no accident. Vienna, who has a psychology degree from UCLA, was profiled in the DRF’s Simulcast Weekly on April 19 where I learned that he trains all of his horses on Santa Anita’s dirt training track, which is inside the turf course.

On the SA training track, the times are often slower than those on the main track and fewer horses work out for each distance. When Vienna’s inexperienced runners, or those coming off layoffs, show up at the races their published training track workouts look slow and odd.

And that’s a good thing because horseplayers not only don’t like playing unproven horses, but they like unproven ones with all slow workouts even less. That converts easily to cash for Vienna and his followers: In the Simulcast Weekly, it showed that Vienna had long-term money making statistics in 18 of 25 categories where he had 10 starters or more.

Who knew that Vienna’s psychology degree would be this useful at the horse track?

In Sunday’s second race, Vienna trained first time starter #11 Good Night Gyrene, who was ridden by Garrett Gomez. First off all, debuting horses in races for older maidens are generally very bad longterm bets. At odds of less than 20-to-1, they win only five percent of the time.

However, even though Good Night Gyrene had all slow-looking training track workouts, she must have impressed Vienna otherwise he could not have convinced Gomez to ride. Over the last 2-1/2 years, Gomez has only ridden two older maiden claimers in their debut races, according to my records.

So the only reason Gomez would be on Good Night Gyrene was because Vienna, who is also an attorney, persuaded Gomez agent Ron Anderson that the horse was going to win.

Anderson and Gomez do well with first time starters when they getting some betting action. Gomez has won with 12 of 50 debuters over the last 2-1/2 years at odds of 2/1 to 9/1 for a return of $1.43 for every $1 bet.

So in retrospect, the evidence was there for Good Night Gyrene’s win, which paid $17.80. The keys were knowing that 1.) Vienna is cagey 2.) Gomez is very selective about the debuters he climbs aboard and 3.) Gomez performs well when the first timers he’s riding are bet below 10-to-1.

So why didn’t I have it? Because I almost automatically throw out all first-time starters in races for older maidens because I save a lot of money that way. However, some trainers are so good that they can break the rules — and maybe I am starting to see that Vienna is one of those.

Instead, I played $300 to win on #1 Brilliant Response who had the lead for a while and lost a photo finish for second place.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Brilliant Response (CA) Bejarano R Gaines C 2.60 3
2 2 Itsakiss (CA) Couton J Locke T 52.20 7
4 3 Unusual Treat (CA) Baze M Ivory J 42.10 6
5 4 Hannah’s Moment (CA) Baze T Periban J 5.00 8
6 5 Raining Money (CA) Flores D Vargas J 44.30 5
7 6 Youknowwhatilike (CA) Arambula P Martinez S 8.30 9
8 7 Mom’s Gift (CA) Charlton C Montes D 119.40 11
9 8 Angel of Mystery (CA) Rosario J Marquez A 4.90 2
10 9 Warrens Stormymoon (CA) Pedroza M Gutierrez J 54.60 10
11 10 Good Night Gyrene (CA) Gomez G Vienna D 7.90 1
12 11 Lady Alex (CA) Gryder A Koriner B 2.70 4
SCR Terra Bella (CA) Navarro D Rickerd P
 
Pgm Win Place Show
11 $17.80 $7.80 $4.60
9 $7.40 $4.40
1 $3.20
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $53.80 (11-9)
$1.00 Superfecta paid $711.00 (11-9-1-12)
$1.00 Trifecta

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 10 — lost $200

Jockey Martin Garcia sat behind the pace with #5 Coatcheck Girl then exploded in the stretch

Jockey Martin Garcia sat behind the pace with #5 Coatcheck Girl then exploded in the stretch

In her second lifetime race on April 4, #5 Coatcheck Girl blasted out of the gate to be just a head off the pace in a field of 13 maiden claimers. She battled the whole way and was never more than a length away from the lead until the very end when she lost by two.

That race showed Coatcheck Girl could run some, as according to my pace ratings, her April 4 race was the quickest first quarter mile of any of the runners in Saturday’s tenth.

But having the quickest first quarter, as I’ve found out by observation, doesn’t necessarily mean she would get the lead. However, it does strongly suggest that she will likely put it all together in the near future and run well for the whole race.

Usually, I will bet a horse like this at 3/1 or more, but since other angles and contenders presented themselves, I bumped her minimum acceptable odds up to 6-to-1.

And for that I paid the price, as Coatcheck Girl sat off the early pace and came storming home to win by 3-1/4 lengths while paying $11.60.

I ended up wagering $200 on #1 Bouncer, who was coming off a long layoff for trainer Gary Mandella and got some betting action. I love that type of horse too, but the problem with a 40-percent angle is that 60 percent of the time you lose.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Bouncer (KY) Talamo J Mandella G 3.90 6
2 2 Xtraordinary (TX) Baze M Mollica M 7.30 3
3 3 Where’s My Limo (CA) Sorenson D Sahadi J 55.10 10
4 4 Lion Princess (KY) Rosario J West T 3.40 4
5 5 Coatcheck Girl (KY) Garcia M Marquez A 4.80 1
6 6 Kaylie’s Joy (CA) Valdez F Dominguez C 65.20 2
7 7 Miss Reyna (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Gonzalez S 108.30 8
8 8 Alisa’s Windstorm (CA) Gavica G Martin, Jr. F 182.90 13
9 9 Flash Dance (CA) Solis A Becerra R 6.70 9
10 10 Metallic Waters (CA) Espinoza V Baffert B 2.90 11
11 11 Roomantic (LA) Vergara O Hajek I 87.10 12
12 12 Aislebebarbie (CA) Delgadillo A Sierra C 65.70 5
13 13 Warren’s Dancer (CA) Arambula P Gutierrez J 103.10 7
 
Pgm Win Place Show
5 $11.60 $6.20 $4.80
6 $41.40 $16.60
2 $5.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $223.20 (5-6)
$1.00 Pick

Sunday, Hollywood Park Race 2 — 1:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo and up, F

Possible overlays               Morning line

#1 Brilliant Response                  3/1
#5 Hannah’s Moment                  6/1
#9 Angel of Mystery                   6/1
#12 Lady Alex                           7/2

Jockey Rafael Bejarano chooses to keep the mount on #1 Brilliant Response after that one ran poorly coming off a nine-month layoff on May 23.  The filly, who is trained by Carla Gaines, has positive long-term angles going for it if betting action shows up.

Also, Gaines’ is only a 12 percent trainer this year, but she wins at 29 percent over the last two years when Bejarano rides.

Two second-time starters look good at the right price. Both #9 Angel of Mystery and #12 Lady Alex have been working out well and they ran decently in their debuts.

Finally, #5 Hannah’s Moment deserves a chance because she has the kind of good early speed that wins at 6 furlongs.

At 2/1 to 7/2, I will bet $300 on #1 Brilliant Response. If she falls out of the betting range, then I will put $150 on #5 Hannah’s Moment at 3/1 or higher, and $200 on both #9 Angel of Mystery and #12 Lady Alex at 5/2 to 7/1 only.

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — 5:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up, F

Possible overlays             Morning line

#1 Bouncer                         5/1
#2 Xtraordinary                   6/1
#4 Lion Princess                  5/1
#5 Coatcheck Girl                9/2
#6 Kaylie’s Joy                    20/1
#9 Flash Dance                    5/1
#10 Metallic Waters            7/2

This is a very competitive race and as usual it’s important to get a good price on any of the contenders.

Making her third lifetime start, #10 Metallic Waters is trained by Bob Baffert, who drops her in class after she showed a bit of speed against maiden special weight company in the spring. On the rail, #1 Bouncer is also dropping and she’s coming off a seven-month layoff.

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 68 and #9 Flash Dance has run two of her last races within four points of that.  Other runners like #2 Xtraordinary, #4 Lion Princess and #5 Coatcheck Girl have recently run well and they can all win under the right circumstances.

At 2/1 to 7/2, I will bet $200 on #1 Bouncer.  But if Bouncer is not in that range, then instead I will play $200 on #10 Metallic Waters at 5/2 to 5/1 only.

If neither of those two horses fall into their odds zone, then I will put $200 on any of the following horses: #2 Xtraordinary at 7/1 to 12/1, #4 Lion Princess at 5/1 to 12/1, #5 Coatcheck Girl at 6/1 to 12/1 and #9 Flash Dance at 5/1 to 12/1.

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 10 — lost $400

Jockey Joel Rosario on #7 Dirt Diver chased down favorite Jamison in the stretch

Jockey Joel Rosario on #7 Dirt Diver chased down favorite Jamison in the stretch

This was a two-horse race from the bell.

Trained by Howard Zucker, #6 Jamieson hadn’t run since March 2008 and was dropping from maiden special weight where he showed speed.

Breaking next door was #7 Dirt Diver who ran a winning race in his March 25 debut, then went very wide and steadied in his second race.

In this race, Jamieson, the 2-to-1 favorite, went right to the lead and was pulling on jockey Tyler Baze while holding a two-length advantage down the backstretch. Dirt Diver sat in second and seemed to be going easier for Rosario.

On the turn, Dirt Diver came within a length of Jamieson, but the favorite kicked away by two lengths at the top of the lane and appeared to be home free. But Rosario and Dirt Diver never stopped working.

Jamieson weakened a bit, and when he did, Dirt Diver went by him and got the money.

When looking at this race, I gave both Jamieson and Dirt Diver good shots to win. But I ended up with $400 on Jamieson and was only going to bet Dirt Diver if Jamieson’s odds sank below 2/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Atlantic Victory (CA) Garcia M McAnally R 8.70 9
2 2 Fire Scout (CA) Talamo J Koriner B 9.00 5
3 3 Easy Plunder (CA) Cedeno A Capitaine N 73.20 12
4 4 Warrens Doc Mayes (CA) Arambula P Gutierrez J 88.30 10
5 5 Reiterate (CA) Martin G Rosales R 51.80 13
6 6 Jamieson (CA) Baze T Zucker H 2.00 2
7 7 Dirt Diver (CA) Rosario J Aguirre P 4.90 1
8 8 El Noche (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Periban J 14.60 8
9 9 My Number One (KY) Scott J Wingfield R 99.40 11
10 10 Bradytomoss (NY) Gryder A Kitchingman A 13.60 7
11 11 Bonkersforbinkers (CA) Sorenson D Kasparoff J 10.80 3
12 12 Seeyainthefunnies (CA) Stra K Craigmyle K 76.50 6
13 13 Sovereign Lord (CA) Vergara O Moreno H 4.00 4
 
Pgm Win Place Show
7 $11.80 $5.20 $3.60
6 $3.60 $3.00
11 $6.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $18.80 (7-6)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $78.40 (1-2-7)
$1.00 Pick

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 2 — lost $300

Trainer Bob Hess dropped #1 Scibelli in class to win but paid just $4.40

Trainer Bob Hess dropped #1 Scibelli in class to win but paid just $4.40

In a maiden claiming $25,000 sprint like this one, the median winning Beyer Speed Figure is a 71. And in seven of #1 Scibelli’s last 10 races he’s exceeded that speed rating.

So it was no surprise to see him win by 1-1/2 lengths, going wire-to-wire at 6-to-5.  It appears that trainer Bob Hess, Jr. grew impatient with this gelding as he ran 12 times for maiden special weight and his odds were above 4-to-1 only one time.

Throughout Scibelli’s 14-race  maiden career, where he’s now earned $88,300, he finished second six times and third on three other occasions. On Saturday, it was time for a win so Hess dropped to the bottom rung and got it.

I was prepared to bet Scibelli, but his odds were too low. So I instead went for new gelding #11 Downtown Banker at 6/1 and #7 Ask George at 7/2 — losing a total of $300 in the process.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Scibelli (FL) Talamo J Hess, Jr. R 1.20 1
2 2 Astoria Renter (CA) Quinonez A Dunham D 30.50 5
3 3 Reckless Capote (KY) Baze M Periban J 13.10 4
4 4 Scofield Barracks (CA) Solis A Headley B 5.10 2
5 5 Caki (CA) Cedeno A Soto A 105.70 12
6 6 Sherry’s Reddy (CA) Scott J Aguayo V 24.90 7
7 7 Ask George (CA) Baze T Mulhall K 3.50 3
8 8 Dance to the Storm (CA) Arambula P Gutierrez J 81.70 11
9 9 Crestline (CA) Martin G Wingfield R 154.40 10
10 10 Runinfromthedeputy (CA) Delgadillo A Capitaine N 82.10 9
11 11 Downtown Banker (FL) Blanc B Chew M 6.80 6
12 12 Rio Romeo (CA) Valdez F Dominguez C 17.50 8
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $4.40 $3.20 $2.80
4 $5.40 $3.40
7 $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $13.50 (1-4)
$1.00 Superfecta

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — 5:11 pm

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays              Morning line

#1 Atlantic Victory                8/1
#2 Fire Scout                       9/2
#3 Reiterate                        15/1
#6 Jamieson                         7/2
#7 Dirt Diver                         6/1
#8 El Noche                          8/1

Howard Zucker trains #6 Jamieson and if he has this colt at his best off a year layoff then this race will be over very quickly. Jaimeson showed good speed in February of 2008 when he missed by a neck in a maiden claiming $40,000 contest. These days, he’s showing nothing but slow workouts, but Zucker may have intentionally kept things at a snail’s pace to keep away pari-mutuel attention on race day.

Another coming off a recent layoff is #2 Fire Scout, who showed early speed on April 29 before fading in the stretch. Trainer Brian Koriner switches jockeys to Joe Talamo, and together they have an outstanding record. In 2008-09, the Koriner-Talamo team combined for 32 wins out of 141 runners, or 23 percent. Betting all 141 runners yielded $1.24 for every $1 wagered. 

Two recently raced maidens who could hit the wire first are #1 Atlantic Victory and #7 Dirt Diver. Atlantic Victory would need to improve by only a length or two off his April 2 Beyer Speed Figure of 66 to win, while Dirt Diver’s debut might be good enough to get the job done.

Longshot possibilities include second-time starter #8 El Noche, who popped out of the gate first in a 7 furlong race on May 16 and he adds blinkers today. Also, low-profile trainer Richard Rosales saddles first timer #5 Reiterate. Rosales doesn’t win many, but when he does the tote board lights up like a Christmas tree.

I will bet $400 on #6 Jamieson at 2/1 to 7/2, but just $300 at 4/1 to 9/1. Also, I’ll take $250 on #2 Fire Scout at 2/1 to 5/1 only.

If either Jamieson or Fire Scout is bet below 2/1, then I will substitute $150 to win on #7 Dirt Diver at 7/2 or greater. Also, only if Jamieson or Fire Scout are below 2/1, I will take $50 longshot plays on #5 Reiterate and #8 El Noche at 6/1 or more.

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 2 — 12:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3yo’s and up

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#1 Scibelli                                3/1
#7 Ask George                          4/1
#11 Downtown Banker                5/1

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this race is a 71 and #1 Scibelli has exceeded that in seven of his last 10 races.

So what is he doing in here?

This horse has earned $79,300 so far and it seems that the owners want to sell him because he was entered for $22,500 rather than $25,000.  If he wins and gets claimed, the owners would get $22,500 plus the $9,000 winner’s share of the purse, which would get them their $100,000 purchase price back, plus $10,000.

Scibelli’s morning line is 3-to-1, but with all of those high Beyer figures showing I believe the public will bet him down to at least 2-to-1. If he’s healthy, this horse will win easily, however he’s also lost nine straight races when he was bet to less than 4-to-1.

A better gamble might be #11 Downtown Banker, who dueled wide on the turn March 15 to just miss at the wire in a three-way photo finish. He only earned a 60 Beyer figure for that race, but he had a wide trip that day while today he’s running a half a furlong shorter. Also, he’s been gelded since he last started on April 9, so he just may be able to run the necessary 71 Beyer needed to win.

Another with a shot is #7 Ask George, who is running back for the second time off a long layoff. He has three good workouts and showed a hint of speed on April 9.

I will bet $200 on both #1 Scibelli and #11 Downtown Banker at 3/1 or greater. If either of those two goes off at less than 3/1, then I will instead substitute a $100 win bet on #7 Ask George at 7/2 or more.

Results, Hollywood Park Saturday Race 10 — lost $500

Jockey Martin Garcia teamed up with trainer Ral Ayers to win on #1 Worth the Fight

Jockey Martin Garcia teamed up with trainer Ral Ayers to win on #1 Worth the Fight

Jeff Mullins is suspended right now, so his assistant Ral Ayers is named as the trainer on all of his horses. Ayers saddled #1 Worth the Fight, who had four good workouts in her past performances.

But I could not bet her because, overall, first-time starters are a money-losing bet at this class. However, Mullins is one of those trainers — like Baffert and Mitchell — who defy the handicapping rules and win whenever they want.

I liked #6 Meat Sauce, who was coming off a long layoff, but the betting on him was luke warm. One of the risks you take when wagering on horses who have been healing up on the farm, is that whatever injury they had may prevent them from ever getting into the winner’s circle.

And in this race, Meat Sauce broke slow and pulled up on the backstretch at 5-to-1.

When Meat Sauce stopped running, I still had two other horses with a chance: second-timer #3 Atta Lora rallied nicely on the turn, but then flattened out in the lane at 6-to-1, and #14 Sure Nice showed speed until midway in the stretch then tired at 13-to-1.

Worth the Fight won by more than a length, but he steadied sharply on the backstretch, so with a better trip he could have crushed this field.
© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.
 
To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN
1 1 Worth the Fight (MD) Garcia M Ayers R 6.70 1
2 2 Galaxy Way (CA) Arambula P Shulman S 65.50 8
3 3 Atta Lora (CA) Solis A Harrington P 6.40 4
4 4 She’s a Single (CA) Sorenson D Bernstein D 27.50 11
5 5 Anundeniablyhappy (KY) Gryder A Knapp S 36.50 10
6 6 Meat Sauce (CA) Rosario J West T 5.00 14
7 7 Tripped Fuse (FL) Baze M Glatt M 21.50 13
8 8 Jacky’s Skipping (CA) Quinonez A Cenicola L 56.00 7
9 9 Stop On the Way (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Cassidy J 39.40 12
10 10 Crafty Starlit (NY) Stra K Zucker H 17.60 6
11 11 Leslie’s Afleet (FL) Smith M Cerin V 23.20 9
12 12 Parker’s Stormgirl (CA) Talamo J Puype M 1.70 3
13 13 Call Me Dutchess (CA) Nakatani C Vienna D 15.10 2
14 14 Sure Nice (CA) Delgadillo A Dunham D 13.20 5
SCR Celena (CA) Quinonez A Pender M
SCR Miss Reyna (KY) Garcia M Gonzalez S
 
Pgm Win Place Show
1 $15.40 $10.00 $6.60
13 $13.80 $7.80
12 $3.00
 
Exotic Payoffs
$1.00 Exacta paid $168.40 (1-13)
$1.00 Pick 3 paid $4216.60 (3-7-1)
$1.00 Pick 4 paid $13776.

Saturday, Hollywood Park Race 10 — 5:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo & up, F

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#3 Atta Lora                           6/1
#6 Meat Sauce                       5/1
#12 Parker’s Stormgirl          7/2
#14 Sure Nice                        6/1
#15 Miss Reyna                      20/1

I see a few good wagering possibilities in this 16-horse field, but none is more potentially powerful than #6 Meat Sauce.

This filly is coming off an eight-month layoff, but has a couple of quick workouts for trainer Ted West. She showed some early foot in September at Fairplex and races at this 6-furlong distance are usually won by horses on or near the lead.

Another speedster coming off a long layoff is #14 Sure Nice. She was loose on the lead versus eight rivals last September and lost by 3/4 of a length. But her trainer, Daniel Dunham, hasn’t won a race all year and her jockey Agapito Delgadillo is not a marquee name either. The truth is, that if her connections were anymore low-profile they’d be in the witness protection program.

Longshot #15 Miss Reyna also hasn’t run since September and is probably a better bet to finish last than first.  But when her owner Tricar Stables wins, their horses usually pay boxcar prices.

I’m giving a shot to two second-time starters. Both #3 Atta Lora and #12 Parker’s Stormgirl could win if they run a couple of lengths faster than they did in their debuts. Mike Puype, who is the trainer of Parker’s Stormgirl, has won with 10 of his last 40 second-time starters and anybody who bet them all would have pocketed a 40 percent gain. Statistics show that Puype is also a profitable bet in maiden claiming races and when using jockey Joe Talamo.

In the end, I will put $400 to win on #6 Meat Sauce but only at odds of 2/1 to 7/2. Also, I’ll take $150 to win on #12 Parker’s Stormgirl at 5/2 to 7/1, but if she doesn’t fall into the range then I’ll replace her with $150 to win on #3 Atta Lora at 5/2 to 7/1. Also, I want $100 on #14 Sure Nice at 5/1 and up and $50 on #15 Miss Reyna at any price.

If #6 Meat Sauce goes off at 4/1 or more than I’ll reduce my bet on her to $250 while keeping everything else intact.

© Copyright Maiden King, 2009. Written exclusively for  maidenking.wordpress.com. Not to be duplicated or reprinted.