Maiden King

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Claiming $32,000, 6 furlongs, 3-yo fillies

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#1 Tuaca Parfait                     12/1
#4 She’s All Rev’d Up               3/1
#5 Kentucky Nectar                 8/1
#6 Betterthanfiction                5/1
#7 Racing Rachel                     12/1
#8 Brahmzee                           8/1
#12 Jilona                               4/1
#13 Stormy Runaway               20/1

Here’s a little known fact about this race: In the Daily Racing Form it shows that Martin Garcia and Bob Baffert are 0-for-2 as a tandem from 2008-09. So it looks like Baffert never uses Garcia. But in 2006-07, Garcia rode 12 first time starters for Baffert and won with five of them at prices ranging from 9/2 to 9/1.

Garcia rides #8 Brahmzee in her debut today for Baffert. 

Looking at the replays, I saw plenty of horses with hidden talent and am hoping one of them will put it all together today at a decent price. On the rail, #1 Tuaca Parfait was four wide on the turn while breathing down the neck of the leaders in her Feb. 5 debut. On that day, she was bet to 5/1, however she loses jockey Tyler Baze today to contender #12 Jilona. Tuaca Parfait has the speed to get the lead and never look back.

On the far outside, #13 Stormy Runaway broke slowly in her last then made a huge middle move to get within a half length of the leaders. She’s been working out well and seems to be improving, but the post position could create a wide trip.

Jockey Chantal Sutherland had #6 Betterthanfiction under a bit of a hold while on the turn Jan. 16, but once Sutherland hit the gas this filly took off. Betterthanfiction is improving, as seen by her last four race Beyer progression of 22-47-57-60.  

Probably the best horse in the race is #12 Jilona who has the early speed to keep up with maiden special weight runners. She has already run a 66 Beyer Speed Figure, which is the median winning Beyer for this level.

Also, it would be no surprise to see #4 She’s All Rev’d Up cross the wire first but she’s an obvious contender. And the fact that Doug O’Neill trains #5 Kentucky Nectar is enough reason to give that one a long look.

Finally, I’ll bet #7 Racing Rachel if the price is right.

At 8/1 or more, I will bet $150 to win on #1 Tuaca Parfait, and $100 to win on #13 Stormy Runaway. Also, I’ll put $100 on first timers #7 Racing Rachel from 10/1 to 19/1 and #8 Brahmzee from 3/1 to 9/1.

Finally, if Jilona goes off at 3/1 or better, I will take $100 to win on her and $20 exactas with #8 Jilona over #1 Tuaca Parfait, #6 Betterthanfiction, #7 Racing Rachel, #8 Brahmzee and #13 Stormy Runaway.

When William Benter was developing his multi-million dollar Hong Kong betting operation, it took him five man-years to organize the data base and create a winning handicapping model.

My system isn’t nearly as sophisicated as Benter’s. But, still, the downside of betting horses using a computer is that a large amount of information needs to be collected and analyzed, which takes up lots of time.

Sooner or later, when research falls behind the bankroll will so south too. So, for the next few weeks I will only handicap maiden races on Saturday and Sunday while I catch up on everthing that I’m tracking.

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 4 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#1 Wharf Cat                               9/2
#7 Ribald                                     5/1
#8 Sangaree                                6/1
#10 Adebayor                            10/1

The key to playing this race is that #5 Holladay Road, a first-time starter, is the morning line favorite and I don’t think that he should be. Garrett Gomez is riding, but according to my records Gomez rode six older horse msw debuters over the last couple of years. Three of them were between 6-to-5 and 9-to-5 and three more were between 5-to-2 and 5-to-1. Only one of them won and it paid $5.60.

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for these horses is an 85, so #1 Wharf Cat’s 86 BSF fits in well.  Coming off a layoff, #7 Ribald flashed brilliant early speed last summer at Hollywood and it’s now or never for #8 Sangaree — the half brother to Congaree.

Historically, Carla Gaines has done well with second timers. Rafael Bejarano rides #10 Adebayo, who must have talent because he was bet to 5-to-2 in his February 2008 debut. 

I will bet $200 on #7 Ribald at 3/1 or more and $150 on #10 Adebayor at 6/1 or better. Finally, I will play the longer of these two horses that is less than 10/1: #1 Wharf Cat and #8 Sangaree.

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $100,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                              Morning line

#2 Shock the Board                                 12/1
#3 Morton Owen                                       3/1
#4 Gretsky                                               5/1
#5 Ben’s Bullet                                        15/1

Trainer Mike Mitchell, who saddles #3 Morton Owen, must always be respected in a maiden claiming race. Morton Owen was previously trained by David Carroll and he rallied nicely to finish second on Dec. 7 at the Fair Grounds.

Mitchell won with 23 of his last 76, or 30 percent, when taking over the training from someone else. 

Trainer Neil Drysdale and jockey Joel Rosario hook up on #4 Gretsky who never works out fast, but ran a 77 Beyer Speed Figure in his Jan. 22 debut. I’d like to see at least one fast workout, but he could win regardless.

First time starters #2 Shock the Board and #5 Ben’s Bullet could be good bets if the price is right. While the owner of #6 BradytoMoss said his horse is a long-legged colt that should fit better in a route race. However, that same owner told me that he likes his other horse, #3 Prince Andrew in today’s third.

I will bet $350 to win on #3 Morton Owen at 9/5 or higher, and $200 on #2 Shock the Board at 3/1 to 12/1, but only $100 from 13/1 to 19/1.

Also, I’ll take $100 to win on #5 Ben’s Bullet at 7/2 to 19/1, and $100 on #4 Gretsky at 9/2 or more.

Did jockey David Flores cost I Can Hear the race?

Entering the stretch, #7 I Can Hear appeared to be in an excellent outside rallying position. But for some reason, jockey David Flores ducked this debuter to the inside where she sat between the weakening #6 Irish Pepper and #3 Gifted Gina. They were all trying to catch #4 High Note, who was 2-1/2 lengths ahead.

I Can Hear kicked in with a late burst and almost got the money up the inside, missing by a half a length. 

But it just seems to me that Flores made a mistake by not rallying on the outside, because I think I Can Hear would have been better able to concentrate on running hard if she wasn’t surrounded by other horses.

My wagers were $250 on I Can Hear at 7-to-2 and $100 on #2 Bell Canyon Road at 13-to-1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, Cal-bred fillies

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#2 Bell Canyon Road                        15/1
#5 Ruby Slippers                             20/1
#6 Irish Pepper                                5/2
#7 I Can Hear                                  5/1
#9 Champagneforchelle                  20/1

Because jockey Garrett Gomez chooses to ride #6 Irish Pepper it will probably go off at the unbettable odds of 5-to-2 or less. The filly looks like she has a pretty good chance to win first time out, but I won’t back her at anything less than 5-to-1.

Instead, I will be looking hard at debuters #2 Bell Canyon Road and #7 I Can Hear, who look just as good and should pay much better. Other first timers with an outside chance are #5 Ruby Slippers and #9 Champagneforchelle, but I won’t go for them if they’re dead on the board.

My bets are $250 to win on #2 Bell Canyon Road from 3/1 to 9/1 and $250 on #7 I Can Hear from 3/1 to 19/1. Also, if Bell Canyon Road drifts from 10-to-1 to 14-to-1, then I’m reducing my bet to $100. 

Finally, if somehow #6 Irish Pepper is 5/1 or more at post time, then I’ll bet $200 on her; and I’ll take $100 on both #5 Ruby Slippers and #9 Champagneforchelle, only in the unlikely scenario where they fall into the 10/1 to 19/1 odds zone.

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Claiming $50,000, 7 furlongs, 3-year-olds

Possible overlays                                    Morning line

#2 Benezit                                                 4/1
#6 The Major                                             12/1
#7 Philly Slew                                            12/1
#8 Eddie the Hat                                         2/1

In his Jan 1 race at one mile, #2 Benezit was very wide on both turns and still ran a 67 Beyer Speed Figure. And on Nov. 15, Benezit also ran well after breaking slowly, earning a 78 BSF.

Jerry Hollendorfer owns and trains #6 The Major, and this horse shows some sharp workouts, although it’s tough to win first time out at 7 furlongs. Just outside of him, #7 Philly Slew ran OK in his Jan 10 debut and could surprise with improvement.

The speed of the race clearly belongs to #8 Eddie the Hat, who might take them wire to wire if he can slow them down through the first half mile.

I’m betting $200 to win on #2 Benezit at 2/1 to 9/1 and $150 on #6 The Major if he’s 7/2 to 9/1. If these horses go off at 10/1 to 19/1 then  my bet is reduced to $100.

However, if either of these horses scratches or if The Major goes off at 20/1 or more, then I’ll put $200 on #8 Eddie the Hat at 2/1 and up.